On Friday, March 21, the First Judicial Court of Nevada granted a temporary 14-day restraining order from the state’s gaming regulators against Kalshi, restricting Sports, Entertainment, and Elections markets in the state as the war rages on between the prediction market and Nevada.
The first state with real legalized sports gambling, Nevada has always been seen as the Mecca of sports betting and the casino and lobbyists operating in Nevada for decades don’t seem too open to letting another means of trading on sporting events cut into their bottom line and profits.
Despite the ruling from the district court, other markets on Kalshi like Crypto, Weather, World news, and others were all still open for trading in Nevada. The next hearing in the case will be in three days on Friday, April 3.
“We disagree with these restrictions, but as a law-abiding company, we’re following them,” said a letter sent to Kalshi customers in Nevada on Saturday, March 22. “You can help by contacting your Nevada representatives and telling them you support open access to regulated prediction markets in Nevada.”
Earlier in the month, Nevada’s neighbors to the south, Arizona, filed criminal charges against Kalshi, claiming it was running an illegal gambling business and unlawfully allowing bets on elections in the Grand Canyon State.
Polymarket Teams Up With Major League Baseball
On March 19, Polymarket announced a partnership with Major League Baseball (MLB), making the company its official prediction market exchange and also unveiled an information sharing deal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the governing body over PMs.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said the deals were aimed at helping to fight threats against the national pastime’s integrity. The partnership—which includes a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the CFTC—will last several years and use Sportsradar data.
The 2026 MLB Regular Season began last week, so the league’s entry into crypto-based event contracting was obviously in the making for some time. This deal with MLB adds to Polymarket’s impressive resume of deals with pro sports leagues including the NHL, MLS, and the UFC.
Both Polymarket, Kalshi Unveil Insider Trading Guardrails
The two biggest players in the prediction market space—forecast by some to reach the $1 trillion mark by 2030—Polymarket and Kalshi, revealed last week they were adding new surveillance tools in an effort to try to prevent insider trading on the extremely popular platforms.
Kalshi claimed it would preemptively block anyone from trading on its platform who is involved in either amateur (collegiate) and professional sports from trading on contracts related to the specific sports they are competing in as well as politicians from trading on their own campaigns.
Kalshi said that these new features “further demonstrate our commitment to safe markets.” Polymarket rewrote its rules to clearly say that users cannot make trades in markets where they may have confidential information or if they are able to change the outcome of any polymarket.
Athletes, company officials, policymarkers, TV execs, or anyone else having enough influence to affect the outcome of a specific or something known in advance would be included but how Polymarket would investigate all of this and what they would do remains to be seen.
We have seen an increasing amount of shady activity in prediction markets, but it seems the vast majority of it has been either in Politics or Entertainment and not Sports—the most heavily traded category—making it seem Sports is the easy scapegoat while the markets are pretty damn clean.
The controversy of people hearing the songs for Lady Gaga’s Super Bowl Halftime show in February caught some spotlight, but a man camping out—and not part of the show—to hear the songs is simply being a smart PM trader seeking alpha and hardly doing “insider trading.”
Bill Introduced in the US Senate to Ban Sports PMs
On Monday, March 24, US Senators John Curtis, (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-California) introduced a new bill into the US Senate seeking to amend US federal law so “Sports and casino-style event contracts” should not be offered on CFTC-regulated platforms.
The new bill is called "The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” and aims to ban sports bets on prediction markets and wants laws governing this still somewhat new industry to make clear which powers belong to the individual states and which are the CFTC’s.
This latest bi-partisan legislation adds to the list of legal efforts on the state level to police prediction markets with state prosecutors in Arizona filing charges of illegal gambling against Kalshi on March 16 and the Nevada nightmare we talked about in this edition’s lead story above.
Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour dubbed the legislation as the “casino lobby hard at work. Banning just pushes this offshore (sportsbooks) where no regulation exists. This bill isn’t about protecting consumers; it’s about protecting monopolies,” Mansour said on X (Twitter).
Polymarket Adds Taker Fees to Most Trading Markets
Starting on Monday (March 30), Polymarket announced that it was expanding its fee structure and moving beyond 15-minute Crypto markets to now include fees in other categories. The initial 15-minute Crypto fees were introduced by the prediction market back on January 6, 2026.
The new structure will include taker fees for Crypto (up to ~1.8%) and Sports (0.75%) in an effort to boost liquidity through maker rebates. Other categories may also be subject to taker fees at Kalshi, but for now, remain free.
Like the house raking 10% vigorish on conventional sports markets straight bets, Polymarket adding taker fees will cut into any perceived edge traders in Crypto and Sports in the long run, but many expected this eventual change by the prediction market space giant.
Polymarket also announced a new referral program on that same day, Monday, March 23.
’How Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026?’ at Predict.Fun
At Predict.Fun you can trade on ‘How Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026?’ and the general sentiment with eight months to go in this year is that there will either be no rate cuts or just one in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) remaining six meetings this rotation around the Sun.
The order was 0 Rate Cuts (0 bps) at 39%, then 1 Rate Cuts (25 bps) at 25%, 2 Rate Cuts (50 bps) at 17%, 3 Rate Cuts (75 bps) at 9%, 4 Rate Cuts (100 bps) at 4%, 5 Rate Cuts (125 bps) at 2%, 6 Rate Cuts (150 bps) at 2%, 7 Rate Cuts (175 bps) at 1%, 8 Rate Cuts (200 bps) at 1%, 9 Rate Cuts (225 bps) at 1%, and 10 Rate Cuts (250 bps) at 1%.
At the last meeting of the FOMC on March 17-18, the Fed left rates unchanged and in late 2025, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the committee cut rates three times, each by a quarter of a percentage point (25 bps) and concluding in December 2025.
You can also trade on whether or not you think there will be a ’Fed Rate Hike in 2026’ and traders were only given an 18% chance of happening in 2026. The final six FOMC meetings of 2026 will come April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9.
➤Trading Thoughts: This seems a lot like last year, with likely little movement, if any, until late. If Trump had his way, Powell would go and there would be action. Powell is prudent, so expect him to cut once, maybe twice if DJT’s nice? We laugh together now. Trading Pick: 1 Rate Cut (25 bps), Yes, 25.9¢
Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation Odds at Kalshi
The Chicago Bears started off in 1919-1920 as the Decatur Staleys, a club established by the AE Staley food starch company in the city in central Illinois, then moved to Chicago in 1921 where the team played as the Chicago Staleys on season. In 1922, they became the Chicago Bears.
Recently, there has been talk of relocating the NFL’s Bears from the Windy City and its downtown Soldier Field location tucked up against Lake Michigan with suburban Arlington Heights, Northwest Indiana, and even Iowa.
At Kalshi in the ‘Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation’ market, A New Location in Illinois (63%) is what the collective masses are saying, followed by Indiana (32%), Do Not Relocate/Or Announce Relocation (10%), with Iowa at <1%. Somehow, Green Bay did not make the list, Bubba.
Here are the Rules: ”If the Chicago Pro Football Team relocates or officially announces a relocation to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from the Governing League, the team, and ESPN.”
Jim Tinaglia, the mayor of Arlington Heights, a northern suburb of Chicago, said “Waiting until the end of May, I think, is a no-go for the Bears,” he told Christopher Placek of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald. “They’ve already been through the [wringer] too many times.”
In 2023, Arlington Heights bought a 326-acre, $1972 million parcel of land with the intent of building the Bears a new stadium on the property. But the concern over property taxes and other things has kept this project and the construction in limbo forever it seems.
The team is also exploring a move to nearby Hammond, Indiana, where the Northwest Indiana Stadium project was signed by Indiana Governor Mike Braun as the Hoosier State continues to try to lure the Bears, a move the storied 106-year-old franchise called a “meaningful step.”
Still, traders are skeptical as the stories team continues to consider all of the options after calling historic Soldier Field home for so long.
➤Trading Thoughts: The state of Illinois and the fans in Chicagoland will not want to lose the Bears, and the heirs of the McCaskey family know how much the city is a part of the heart and soul of this team. But business is business and Northwest Indiana has shown it’s very serious about this.
This has been going on for a long time, and although much is expected to happen in March, April, and May of this Spring, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if not much happened. Arlington Heights is the best bet, but when? 2040? Come on you scalliwags. Trading Pick: A New Location in Illinois, Yes 63¢
2026 UEFA CL Tournament Reaches Quarterfinals Stage
We’re down to eight clubs in the 2026 UEFA Champions League tournament, and Leg 1’s of the Quarterfinals will be played on Tuesday, April 6 and Wednesday, April 7 and the matchups are dynamite. Leg 2’s of the Quarterfinals will be played on Tuesday, April 13 and Wednesday, April 14.
Defending UCL champions and Ligue 1 giants Paris Saint-Germain face EPL stalwarts Liverpool, La Liga’s Real Madrid collides with Luis Díaz and Bundesliga’s Bayern Munich in an epic series, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid in a La Liga quarter, and Sporting faces EPL heavyweights Arsenal.
Polymarket traders are buying ‘Yes’ on Arsenal (27%) to lift the trophy in May in this very liquid market ($222 million), followed by Harry Kane and Bayern Munich (23%), Lamine Yamal and Barcelona (17%), PSG (13%), Kylian Mbappé (13 goals) and Real Madrid (11%), Liverpool (8%), Atlético Madrid (3%), and Sporting CP (1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Bayern vs Real Madrid could be a Final and Vini and Los Blancos dominated Manchester City (5-1) in the Round of 16 but the draw was cruel to whichever side loses here. The winner will face the winner of Ousmane Dembélé and PSG and Liverpool in the Semifinals.
Barcelona and Atlético will be cinema, and it’s worth noting for Soccer traders and gamblers that the four games Atleti played to get here (Club Brugge, Tottenham) saw 6, 5, 7, and 5 goals (5.75 GPG average), so ladder the Over in alternative Totals markets if you see goals, goals, goals.
Arsenal (8-0-0, 23 GF-4 GA) have quietly been brilliant in this tournament, focusing on defense and if Bayern Munich (7-0-1, 33 GF-8 GA) can get by Real Madrid, we may see a classic Arsenal vs Bayern Munich final, but PSG, Liverpool, Atlético and Barça will have something to say about it.
With now 40-year-old GK Manuel Neuer possibly playing his last tourney for the Bavarians, expect Neuer (calf), Kane, Díaz, Michael Olise, Nicolas Jackson, Diaz, and 18-year-old wunderkind Lennart Karl to keep impressing the watching world. Trading Pick: Bayern Munich, Yes 23¢
‘NBA Worst Regular Season Record’ at Polymarket
When you hear people using the phrase “tanking” in the context of professional sports teams, it means the perception (or even reality) is that teams will not try to win games (= lose) in an effort to get a better pick in a draft lottery and primarily in the NBA and the NFL.
The Raiders didn’t really have to “tank” to end up with the NFL’s worst Regular Season record in 2025 (3-14) to land the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft where the Silver and Black will select Indiana QB Anthony Mendoza to start a new rebuild (after the rebuild of the previous rebuild).
But in the NBA, critics have been saying many teams are tanking to try to get the best spot possible in a loaded 2026 NBA Draft that will include the likes of Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Darius Acuff Jr, Yaxel Lendeborg, Darryn Peterson, Keaton Wegler, and Joshua Jefferson.
At Polymarket in the ‘NBA Worst Record’ market, traders are strongly behind the Indiana Pacers (59%) followed by the Washington Wizards (20%), Brooklyn Nets (15%), rookie C Maxime Raynaud and the Sacramento Kings (6%), and Utah Jazz (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: On March 29, the Pacers had the NBA’s worst record with a mark of 17-58 with the Wizards a half-game ahead of Indiana at 17-57 with Brooklyn also close at 17-56 and Sacramento sitting at 19-56 as four of the league’s weakest teams this season call the Eastern Conference home.
The NBA Regular Season will come to an end on April 12. The NBA Play-in Tournament starts April 14, the heart of the 2026 NBA Playoffs tips off on April 18 with the 2026 NBA Finals scheduled to start on June 3. Trading Pick: Washington Wizards, Yes 22¢
2026 American League Central Division Winner? at Kalshi
Last season in the 2025 Central Division Winner market, the Cleveland Guardians rallied and held off the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central by just 1 game (88-74 to 87-75) as Cleveland won the division despite finishing with a negative Run Differential (643 RF-649 RA, -6).
The Kansas City Royals (82-80) finished in 3rd followed by the Minnesota Twins (70-92) with the Chicago White Sox (60-102) in last. The Tigers (46-35) were best at Home, the Guardians were the best on the Road (43-36) with the poor Pale Hose the worst at Home (33-48) and at Home (27-54).
MLB traders at Kalshi are backing ace Tarik Skubal and the Tigers (52%) to be the AL Central Division Winner this season over SS Bobby Witt and the the Royals (28%), defending division champs the Guardians (16%), the Twins (5%), and the White Sox (1%) in the Junior Circuit division.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Tigers will remember losing by a game last year despite playing better than the Guardians and seek the crown this time with a killer starting P staff including two-time Cy Young Award winner Skubal (13-6), Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, returning vet Jason Verlander, and Casey Mize (14-6).
In the 2025 MLB Regular Season, Detroit went just 5-8 vs the Guardians, with that -3 difference ultimately being the difference between winning and losing the division. KC and Cleveland seem on the same level with Minnesota and Chicago still the bottom feeders and building for the future.
This pick is one that is a buy and not a lean simply because of the motivation provided by losing the hard way and a magnificent pitching staff where Tigers General Manager Jeff Greenberg went out and really spent some money in the offseason. Kudos. Trading Pick: Detroit Tigers, Yes 51¢
2026 National League Central Division Winner at Kalshi
In the 2025 MLB Regular Season, the Brewers won the NL Central, capturing the 5-team division by 5 games with an 97-65 record with the Cubs (92-70), the Reds (83-79), the Cardinals (78-84), and the swashbuckling Pirates (71-91) all following.
The Brew Crew had the best Home record (52-29) and the best Road record (45-38) while St Louis and Pittsburgh were the worst teams at Home (44-37) while the Bucs were just 27-54 (.333) on the Road last season. Expect Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to be better and the Redbirds to be worse.
At Kalshi, traders are backing the defending division champs Brewers (57%) to be the NL Central Division Winner again this season with Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs (57%), the Pirates (12%), the Reds (7%), and the Cardinals (2%) following in the competitive Senior Circuit division.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a four-team race this season in my mind, with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati possibly surprising. Chicago saw FA Kyle Tucker sign with the Dodgers, so the Cubbies will look to big bats like Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ for production.
The Brewers are always in the NL Central race and are the best value at this price with SP Quinn Priester (13-3, 3.32 ERA) and some new arms, C William Contreras of the WBC-winning Venezuelan team, DH Christian Yelich, CF Jackson Chourio , and new 3B Luis Renfigo (Angels).
Milwaukee won the NL Central the last three years, 4 of the last 5, and 5 of the last 8 (2018, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025) and the Brewers play well vs their rivals, the Cubs, but went 1-3 last trip down I-95 to the Friendly Confines. Trading Picks: Milwaukee Brewers, Yes 44¢, Pittsburgh Pirates, No 88¢
12—Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao 2 in Autumn
More than 11 years after their first fight, boxers Floyd Mayweather Jr and Manny Pacquiao will get in the ring again in Floyd_Mayweather Jr vs Manny_Pacquiao II at the Sphere in Paradise (Las Vegas), Nevada on Saturday, September 19 (Netflix, 9 EDT/8 CDT/7 MDT/6 PDT).
The two fought on May 2, 2015 in Las Vegas where “Money” Mayweather won by a Unanimous Decision over Pac Man Pacquiao in a bout that had 4.2 million PPV buys and some think this MayPac2 rematch at Sphere in Sin City late this Summer could set a new PPV record.
Traders at Polymarket are backing the 49-year-old Floyd Mayweather (66%) over the 47-year-old Manny Pacquiao (34%) who claimed a shoulder injury prevented him from being at his best in the 12-round in the Fight of the Century at the MGM Grand on the Las Vegas Strip.
➤Trading Thoughts: Grand Rapids, Michigan native and LV resident Mayweather has never lost (50-0-0, 27 KOs) and is possibly the best defensive pugilist ever while Filipino Pacquiao (62-8-3, 39 KOs). A decade later, the fight may look the same. Trading Pick: Floyd Mayweather, Yes 66¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the NCAA DI Men’s and Women’s Final Fours with previews and picks for both Men’s games on Saturday, Which Party Will Win the Senate in 2026?, the state of Nevada’s Court Ruling on Kalshi’s Appeal, Will the Strait of Hormuz Open in April?, AL West and NL West Winners, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award, and the English FA Cup Quarterfinals. Thank you for subscribing and enjoy.