The 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC) started Thursday and will see 20 national teams competing in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Japan in the sixth iteration of this international baseball tournament. Shohei Ohtani and Japan are the defending WBC champions.
The tournament will start off with pool-play round games in Miami, San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Tokyo with the Quarterfinals round played in Miami and Houston with the Semifinals and Finals (March 17. 2026) scheduled to be played at LoanDepot Park (Shaw Sports B1K) in Miami.
At Polymarket, traders in the ‘WBC Winner 2026’ are predicting USA (48%) leading the collective wisdom pack followed by the Dominican Republic (23%), defending champions Japan (22%), Venezuela (3%), Puerto Rico (2%), and Mexico (2%).
National teams with 1% were Chinese Taipei, Korea, and Canada. Seeing <1% of support to win the WBC were Brazil, Panama, Netherlands, Colombia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Great Britain, Italy, Israel, Czechia, and Australia, who won the opener on Wednesday over Chinese Taipei, 3-0.
➤Trading Thoughts: This seems like a three nation race between the top three favorites with the USA, Japan, and the Dominican Republic all expecting to win the tournament and all three have rosters capable of doing that. A big key may be avoiding each other until that Final game.
The Team USA roster will be loaded with captain and reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr, and Pete Crow-Armstrong with Red, White and Blue stud pitchers Paul Skenes (NL Cy Young winner) and Tarik Skubal (AL Cy Young winner).
Besides NL MVP Ohtani on the Japanese roster, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Yusei Kikuchi, Seiya Suzuki, Kensuke Kondoh, Munetaka Murakami, and NPB MVP Teruaki Sato. On the DR’s slugging roster, Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodríguez, Ketel Marte, and Juan Soto.
All three open play today (Friday, March 6) in Classic Pool Play with Japan facing Chinese Taipei at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo (FS1, 8 am ET/5 am PT), the US playing Brazil at Daikin Park in Houston (FOX, 8 ET/5 PT) and the DR playing Nicaragua at loanDepot park in Miami (FS2, 8 EDT/5 PDT).
The Dominican Republic may have the best bats, Japan may have the best arms, but the USA has a wonderful blend with both Cy Young winners, living legend Judge, and many MLB vets. But the perceived value is with the defending champs who have Ohtani, pride, and won’t beat themselves. Trading Pick: Japan, Yes 22¢
Firings For Prediction Market Insider Trading Cropping Up
Last week, we saw at least three people get in serious trouble for insider trading in prediction markets as the push for integrity and fairness begins in this still new industry. The first incident happened at OpenAI where an employee was fired for using confidentialOpenAI information used to profit from trading activity on Polymarket, the company alleged.
A spokesperson for OpenAI said that it was a violation of company policy to use any inside information for personal gain. The name of the individual was not released.
Two other incidents saw MrBeast video editor and a former candidate to become California governor lose their jobs for alleged insider trading, resulting in disciplinary action from Kalshi. YouTuber Artem Kaptur and Kyle Langford were both fined and suspended.
Kalshi disclosed that it currently has more than 200 investigations into potential inside trading activity. "No financial exchange is immune from bad actors. Not stock exchanges, not banks, not prediction markets," said Bobby DeNault, leader of Kalshi's enforcement efforts.
"We're committed to deterring and finding the bad actors, manipulators, and those who willingly cheat." Kaptur was fined $20,000 and given a 2-year suspension for allegedly making trades based on "material, non-public information" obtained while working as a MrBeast YouTube video editor.
Which Companies Will be Acquired Before 2027?
There is an interesting trading market in the Tech category at Polymarket, ‘Which Companies Will be Acquired Before 2027?’ and it is pretty liquid, with $16,736,511 in volume on March 4.
Polymarket traders give Viking Therapeutics a solid 56% chance of being acquired this calendar year, with only one other company even registering over 50% (‘Yes’ to 2026 acquisition) in Ubisoft (50%). Pizza Hut (46%), GitLab (44%), BP (31%), and Lovable (27%) all follow in trading order.
Being given less of a chance at a 2026 acquisition at Polymarket are Nebius Group (25%), Perplexity AI (25%), Anthropic (13%), Snapchat (10%) , OpenAI (10%), and Zoom Video Communications (9%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Viking Therapeutics has done well these last four years thanks in great part to its GLP-1 weightloss drug in the market and many think this company could be the next buyout target by Big Pharma.
Last year, Pizza Hut parent company Yum Brands said it was considering selling the chain after sales in the US—its biggest market—fell 7%. Yum CEO Chris Turner said in a statement last year.
“The Pizza Hut team has been working hard to address business and category challenges; however, Pizza Hut’s performance indicates the need to take additional action to help the brand realize its full value, which may be better executed outside of Yum Brands.,” Turner said.
Trading Picks: Viking Therapeutics, Yes 56¢, Pizza Hut, Yes 48¢, GitLab, Yes 46¢
2026 Oscars Previews: Best Supporting Actor Winner
We continue our look at Oscars winners for the upcoming 2026 Academy Awards set to be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California next weekend on Sunday March 15 (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST), this issue looking of the popular ‘Best Supporting Actor’ category.
In the ‘Oscar for Best Supporting Actor?’ market at Coinbase, Entertainment traders have switched to now predicting One Battle After Another actor Sean Penn (71%) will win the statuette for his role as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw and the 65-year-old Santa Monica native has already won the BAFTA, London Critics' Circle, and the Florida Film Critics Circle for the role.
Penn has passed Swedish actor Stellan Skarsgård in the major PMs (Coinbase 20%, Polymarket 20%, Kalshi 17%, 🔻47%) for his role in the Norwegian film Sentimental Value (Affeksjonsverdi) where he plays Gustav Borg. Skarsgård won the Best Supporting Actor in 2019 for Chernobyl.
Benicio del Toro (9%) for his role as Sensei in One Battle After Another by Paul Thomas Anderson is also losing ground, but to a castmate. The 58-year-old Puerto Rican icon has already won awards for that role in this film expected to win the Best Picture Oscar from the NYCC and NBR.
➤Trading Thoughts: This market has really changed in the last two weeks with a perceived three-actor race devolving into one-way action for Penn. Why? I am guessing more saw the film in February and liked the impression Penn’s character left and the relationship with Teyana Taylor.
You can now buy ‘Yes’ contracts on Skarsgård and de Toro combined for 20¢ less than a Penn contract (53¢), but it seems the late steam may be smart money. Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw is one of those characters hard to dislike and hard to forget. Still. Trading Pick: Stellan Skarsgård, Yes 20¢
Knueppel Overtakes His Pal Flagg in the NBA ROY Race
A year ago, Cooper Flagg and Kon Kneuppel were teammates in college at Duke and thinking about March Madness, but now 365 days later, the former Blue Devils gunners are battling it out for the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year award with the Hornets guard passing the Mavericks forward in the prediction markets.
Why? Several reasons. Sharpshooter Knueppel (19.2 PPG, 48.8% 3 PTS) has been playing out his mind and just broke the NBA rookie record for 3-pointers, connecting on his 207th in a win against the Pacers. And we still have March and April for the 6-6, 215-pound to extend his rookie record.
The Warriors Steph Curry had an NBA-record 402 (2010-16), so should Kneuppel top that mark and Charlotte (29-31) make and maybe advance from the NBA Play-in round, it will be hard not to recognize him, no matter what the 6-9, 205-pound Flagg (20.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG. 4.1 APG).
➤Trading Thoughts: Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe (15.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.0 APG) was in the NBA Rookie of the Year race until Knueppel helped spearhead the Hornets resurgence. Now it’s a matter of how strong Flagg can close as he deals with a midfoot sprain. Not playing from February 10 to March 1 certainly hurt Flagg’s ROY chances.
The 2025 Naismith College Player of the Year, Flagg (40%), solidly led in this market up until February 27 when Kneuppel (57%), vaulted past him at Kalshi and Polymarket as Flagg sat for yet another game.
This award is chosen by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters, and not seeing Flagg playing while Kneuppel sets records and Charlotte surges will definitely leave an impression in their minds. Trading Pick: Kon Kneuppel, Yes 59¢
2026 MLB Futures Markets: AL Cy Young Award Winner
The 2026 Major League Baseball will start on March 26 with the San Francisco Giants welcoming Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees to Oracle Field in San Francisco in an interleague Opening Night offering (Netflix, 8:05 EST/7:05 CST/5:05 PST).
There’s no better time than now to look at the MLB Awards markets including the AL Cy Young Award Winner and the NL Cy Young Award Winner, where two northpaws—the Detroit Tigers Tarik Skubal and the Pittsburgh Pirates Paul Skenes—captured this pitching award last season.
In the ‘AL MVP Cy Young Winner’ market at Polymarket, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (17%) is predicted to win the award for a third straight time with Red Sox LHP Garrett Crochet (17%) and Rangers RHP and two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom (11%) also seeing interest.
The Astros Hunter Brown (8%), the Yankees Max Fried (8%), the Mariners George Kirby (6%), the Blue Jays Kevin Gausman (5%), and the Mariners Bryan Woo (4%) are also solid candidates but staying healthy will matter.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last season, Tigers 29-year-old ace RHP Tarik Skubal (6-3, 240) won the AL Cy Young for a second straight season, ending with a 13-6 record, a 2.21 ERA with 241 Ks and a 0.89 WHIP (#1). Living in the AL Central Skubal and Detroit will again benefit from a soft schedule.
Like NL ace Skenes, Skubal is part of the Team USA rotation for the upcoming World Baseball Classic (WBC), but those minimal innings should do much to dampen his chances of three-peating or wear down his throwing arm, but this Georgia boy is durable and will relish the challenge(s).
Boston’s Crochet (#1 in AL in IP and Batters Faced and #1 in MLB in Ks) and Houston’s Brown (12-9, 2.43, 206 Ks, 1.03 WHIP) should challenge Skubal, ranked as the #1 starting Pitcher by ESPN MLB guru Buster Olney at the position. Trading Pick: Tarik Skubal, Yes 34¢
2026 MLB Futures Markets: NL Cy Young Award Winner
Over in the ‘NL MVP Cy Young Winner’ market at Polymarket, Pirates ace Paul Skenes (23%) is predicted to win this award again with Phillies LHP Christopher Sánchez (14%), and the Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12%), and Brewers RHP Jacob Misirowski (6%) also seeing interest.
Padres RHP Michael King (6%), Braves RHP Hunter Greene (6%), Dodgers LHP Blake Snell (5%), Cy Young winner and Braves ace Chris Sale (5%), Phils RHP Zack Wheeler (4%), Dodgers RHP, 2-way star and NL MVP Shohei Ohtani (2%) and Mets RHP Nolan McLean (2%) also have interest.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Pirates did much this offseason and look to make some noise in the NL Central, and with LSU product Skubal, have a guy that a franchise can build around and also stop losing streaks. He has proved to be nothing but consistent since coming up to the big leagues.
Challenging Skubal this season should be Milwaukee’s Misirowski, Philadelphia’s Sánchez, and the Dodgers Yamamoto who will pitch for Team Japan in the WBC (March 6-March 11). Even seeing Clayton Kershaw retire, the LA staff is loaded with Y²K, Ohtani, Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Emmet Sheehan. Trading Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Yes 16¢
Who Will Win a 2026 PGA Tour Major This Year?
Like in professional Tennis, there are four Majors on the PGA Tour, the Masters Tournament at Augusta (April 12), the PGA Championship in Pennsylvania (May 17), the US Open in New York (June 21), and The Open Championship in England (July 19).
Golf traders at Kalshi can buy ‘Yes-No’ contracts on which golfer will win one of these four majors and the top names are getting the love with Scottie Scheffler (58%) a prohibitive favorite to win one followed by Rory McIlroy (32%), Bryson DeChambeau (20%), and Tommy Fleetwood (19%).
Xander Schauffle (18%), Ludvig Aberg (15%), Justin Rose (15%), Hideki Matsuyama (14%), Jon Rahm (12%), Viktor Hovland (12%), Akshay Bhartia (11%), Chris Gotterup (11%), Joaquin Newman (10%), Collin Morikawa (9%), Jordan Spieth (9), and Sam Burns (9%) all follow.
➤Trading Thoughts: The modern day Tiger Woods, Scottie Scheffler, won two of the four PGA Majors is 2025 (PGA Championship, The Open Championship) with vet Rory McIlroy getting the Green Jacket at the Masters to complete a career grand slam with JJ Spaun winning the US Open.
A fresh golfer who turned some heads of late has been Jacob Bridgeman, the winner of the Genesis Invitational in California in late February by a stroke. Besides Bridgman two linksmen who were in good form of late and to start the new year were Xander Schauffle and Collin Morikawa.
While Bridgeman had 18 rounds of 70 or under in his last 20 rounds in five tournaments as of February 28, Morikawa has 8 in 12 rounds and won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am at Pebble Beach, California while Schauffle had 10 of 12 rounds but only a T7 to show for his efforts.
This is a unique market with four possible winners and a long running time, giving maximum entertainment value to the Golf or casual trader. Scheffler will probably be in the hunt again, but the better value is to take three guys for smaller amounts and hope that one (or more) surprises. Trading Picks: Xander Schauffle, Yes 16¢, Collin Morikawa, Yes 12¢ Jacob Bridgman, Yes 25¢
PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Now Underway in Florida
The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational held this week at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Bay Hill, Florida from Thursday to Sunday (March 5-8) with most of the Professional Golfer’s Association (PGA) turning it on again in funny clothing on the greens in the Sunshine State.
The course is a classic Florida-style layout with the Fairways and Tees here are overseeded bermudagrass (Tifway Bermuda) with the greens TifEagle bermudagrass (cut to 0.1110 the week of the tournament). The defending champion in this tournament is Russell Henley (-11) who defeated Collin Morikawa (-10) by a stroke a year ago at Bay Hill.
At Polymarket, there were several polymarkets on this event, including these listed below:
➤Trading Thoughts: The tour will have already teed off by the time you are reading this (Friday), but one of the beauties of prediction markets is the live trading aspect and the ability to trade on something after seeing the course, conditions, field, and how other golfers have started Round 1.
Last year, Morikawa finished in 2nd place in this event, and he has been playing extremely well to start the season with those aforementioned 8 of 12 rounds of 70 or under and victory in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am at Pebble Beach earlier this year. Trading Picks: Collin Morikawa, Yes 7.8¢
Chelsea at Wrexham in FA Cup Round 5 Treat on Saturday
The Fifth Round of the 2026 FA Cup will see EPL club Chelsea FC facing EFL Championship Cinderella Wrexham AFC at the Racehorse Ground (STōK Cae Ras)—the world’s oldest soccer stadium (1877)—in Wrexham, Wales on Saturday (ESPN+, 12:45 EST/11:45 CST/9:45 PST).
For those not following, Wrexham has been promoted a mind-boggling three straight seasons, going from the National League (2022-23) to League Two (2023-2024) to the EFL Championship (2024-25) with the 6th place Foxes sitting just 5 points off 3rd place and dreams of EPL promotion.
➤Trading Thoughts: Pedro Neto, Reece James and the Blues are -255 favorites in online sportsbooks to top Wrexham (+550, Draw +380) at the historic Racehorse Ground (GrassMaster), but the site and potential apathy (and price) from the bigger club makes it hard to suggest a trade.
Kalshi traders in the FA Cup Winner market are giving Cole Palmer, João Pedro and Chelsea an 14% chance to win this tourney with usual EPL suspects Arsenal (26%), Manchester City (18%), and Liverpool (17%) the favorites at the popular prediction market exchange. Trading Pick: None
#17 NC at #1 Duke in Tobacco Road Rivalry on Saturday
The 2025-26 ACC Regular Season wraps up this weekend with one of the biggest rivalries in all sports, as #17 North Carolina (24-6, 12-5 ACC) head down Tobacco Road to lock horns with #1 Duke (28-2, 16-1 ACC) at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC (ESPN, 6:30 EST/3:30 PST).
In the first meeting of the season between these two College Basketball institutions at Chapel Hill on February 7, Caleb Wilson (23 points) and North Carolina rallied for a 71-68 win over Cameron Boozer (24 points, 11 rebounds) and the Blue Devils after trailing by 12 points at half (41-29).
In the Men’s College Basketball Champion market at Kalshi, traders are giving Duke a 24% chance (Yes 18¢, No 83¢) of winning the 2026 NCAA DI Men’s Basketball Tournament with legendary Head Coach Hubert Davis and North Carolina getting a <1% shot (Yes 1¢, No 99¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Wilson is the heart of the Tar Heels and the star Forward is suffering a wrist injury but is expected to be on the court for this big Regular Season finale between these heated rivals. With NC winning the first meeting and handing the Dukies one of two losses on the season, revenge could be served up here with the Cameron Crazies knowing the pure theater of it all.
If Duke loses, it still may get a #1 seed by the NCAA Committee, and if NC loses, maybe the Tar Heels drop a seed. This game really has little importance, save for some blue basketball pride. The real fun starts when the ACC and NCAA Men’s basketball tournaments tip off later this month. Trading Pick: Duke Men’s College Basketball Champion, No 77¢
Inter, AC Milan in Big Derby della Madonnina on Sunday
There is a huge Italian Serie A match as Lauro Martinez and 1st-place Inter Milan (21-1-4) hosts Christian Pulisic and 2nd-place AC Milan (15-9-2) at San Siro (SISGrass Hybrid Grass) in the Derby della Madonnina in Milan, Italy on Sunday (Paramount+, 3:45 EDT/2:45 CDT/12:45 PDT).
Traders at Polymarket like Inter Milan (44%) over AC Milan (28%) with a Draw trading at 32%. When these two played earlier this 2026 Serie A season, AC Milan won 1-0, improving to 4-2-0 (11 GF-5 GA) the last 6 series meetings with their city rivals.
Inter (+41 GD Serie A) suffered a big setback in the 2026 UEFA Champions League tournament, being eliminated by upstart Norwegian side Bodø-Glimt, so the club can focus primarily on winning the league where they hold a commanding 10-point lead (64-54) over AC Milan (+34 GD).
➤Trading Thoughts: This showdown seems like one of those derbies that could end in a draw, was little scoring. The last 4 matches between these two have all seen 2 goals or less (ACM 1-0, ACM 1-0, 1-1, 1-1) and averaged just 1.5 GPG. Trading Pick: Over 2.5 goals, No 54¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the the start of March Madness, rumors of insider trading with the strikes on Iran, Will Iran be Removed From the 2026 FIFA World Cup?, New Zealand’s ban on prediction markets, Who Will be on the Cover of Rolling Stone in 2026?, the Best Supporting Actor race at the upcoming Oscars, two UEFA CL Round of 16 matches, and NCAAB Men’s Basketball Tournament Winner and Final Four futures markets. Thank you for subscribing.