A recent report from Juice Reel revealed that two of the top three US states Prediction Markets are popular in, California and Texas—are also two states without legalized and regulated sportsbooks. California (39.4m) and Texas (31.2m) are also the two most populated US states.
Juice Reel is a betting-tracker app which analyzes wager and trade activities and its data showed California had the highest number of connected PM accounts (9%), the highest in the nation with key markets like Los Angeles. San Francisco-Oakland-San José, San Diego, and Sacramento.
Despite having legalized sports betting now, New York followed (6.8%) with cities like the Big Apple and Buffalo having many users as well as in nearby New Jersey. The story in Sportico said about 40% of the Juice Reel handle in the Empire state was from PMs, daily fantasy, and offshore sportsbooks as users look to avoid the high 51% taxes on sportsbooks.
And Texas (6%) also has a high number of linked-PM users, and with cities and dense financial markets like Dallas-Arlington, Ft Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin and no legalized sports wagering, it’s no wonder the Lone Star State loves its prediction market trading, brother.
The story from Sportico also said that 18- to 20-year olds may be fueling the boom because they are not allowed to bet legally in online and brick-and-mortar sportsbooks in the United States.
Expect Kalshi Trading Volume to Fall After Football Ends
As great and as record-setting the volume numbers have been at Kalshi in December 2025 and here in January 2026, expect this torrential explosion of trading to taper off some when football finally comes to an end, something sportsbooks and casinos in the US are quite familiar with.
The exuberance toward prediction markets may not be “irrational” just yet, and those singing of a supercycle may be on to something, but it’s probably best to cool the jets some in thinking it will always be this fast, always be this entertaining, and always be looked at favorably by the media.
Around 94% of Kalshi volume comes from Sports, and Football is the driver of that bus. And it always will be in the US. College Football just ended with Indiana making history with the first-ever 16-0 season and the NFL is down to just one game, Super Bowl LX on February 8.
Kalshi
Kalshi, which has also had some burps in its international efforts, has also faced legal hurdles in states like Nevada and Massachusetts where sports is no longer allowed on the menu, at least for now, so a slowdown after football ends may present a new challenge.
One good thing for Kalshi, as well as Polymarket and the other PMs offering up Sports markets, is that things like the NBA, NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball, NHL, the 2026 Winter Olympics, NASCAR, F1, MLB, PGA, Horse Racing, Tennis, the WNBA, and the FIFA World Cup are also here.
Polymarket US Relaunch Leaving a Lot to be Desired?
When Polymarket finally got approval from the CFTC in late 2025, many thought the NYC-based prediction market giant would be immediately ready to relaunch the website for users in the US and sign up tens of thousands of traders to create maximum revenue during football season.
In the ’Will Polymarket US Go Live in 2025?” market at Polymarket, the outcome was ruled a ‘Yes,” despite the reality that the company is still in a phased rollout with users on a waitlist with Apple users in December 2025 with Android users scheduled to follow.
And with the market Rules stating “This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-operated Designated Contract,” and that happening in the calendar year, the ‘Yes’ resolution can be understood but ‘No’ backers had a point.
Polymarket
So the full relaunch hasn’t really kicked in, and looking at some sports markets on Polymarket like MLB and College Women’s Basketball Props and the cupboard is literally bare. And last week, reports of users not being able to make withdrawals and having wrong balances cropped up. For a platform often claiming they are #1 in the PM space, Polymarket needs to do a lot better in 2026.
In states like Nevada and Massachusetts, Polymarket isn’t available for sports trading with state regulators in both the Silver State and the Commonwealth attempting to block Polymarket from operating in their states, or making certain restrictions.
Fair Resolutions Always Something to Worry About
With Prediction Markets still in diapers, building integrity will be crucial in these formative years, and the exchanges having Fair Resolutions to try to ensure accurate settlements in outcome markets will be essential to longtime survival. No one likes to think they’re playing an unfair game.
We have already seen scores of resolutions challenged and foggy—like the ‘Will US Invade Venezuela by__’ controversial outcome decision we talked about in the January 13, 2026 edition of The Prediction Report at Polymarket—and who and how markets are resolved matters.
Other recent controversial resolutions include ’Will Zelenskyy Wear a Suit Before July 2025?’ and “Will Polymarket US Go Live in 2025?” at Polymarket (of course) with a ‘Yes’ resolution from the latter a bit skewed with Polymarket still available on a waitlist-only basis and not at full steam.
Knowing who resolves markets and how—and reading the Rules thoroughly—and being aware Kalshi and Polymarket have different ways of getting perceived fair resolutions on their ‘Yes-No’ outcomes. For a great read on how Polymarket resolves now, check this article out from Sportico.
For resolution, Polymarket uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle, “a smart-contract based optimistic oracle.” And there has been some dissent among traders on the platform, and for good reason as cryptocurrency token UMA holders vote on the disputed markets and the more tokens a user has, the more weight voting on one of these resolutions.
Fairness and integrity have always been big things customers of sportsbooks, and like with sports betting, traders on PMs can feel they have been cheated out of a win because of something that appeared to them as a win.
Massachusetts Judge Says ‘No, No, No’ to Kalshi
On Tuesday, January 20, Kalshi was handed a blow in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts when Suffolk Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith granted a preliminary injunction against the prediction market exchange, barring Kalshi from offering any sports-related trading for now.
In September 2025, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell sued, making the argument that the platform allows unlicensed gambling to 18-year-olds while the minimum age for sports bettors in the state to register with DraftKings is age 21.
Regulated by the federal CFTC, Kalshi contended Massachusetts state laws don;t apply in this case and that they planned to appeal the ruling. The ruling is similar to one we saw in Nevada where there is no, no no more sports trading allowed although other Kalshi markets weren’t affected.
On Monday, January 26, Campbell secured a court order that will block Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state—a day after setting another trading volume record ($543 million). All of this may ultimately end up in the Supreme Court one day, but for now, we will be seeing this tug-of-war between states and prediction markets.
Grammy Awards Preview: Best New Artist Winner
Polymarket has an extensive list of Grammy Awards markets, including Best New Artist where there are just main candidates to win the award from The Recording Academy in Olivia Dean (69%) and Leon Thomas (21%) in a market with some liquidity ($425,207 volume, 1/26/2026).
The longshots from Polymarket traders are Alex Warren (4%), Sombr (3%), Addison Rae (2%), KATSEYE (2%), Lola Young (1%), and The Marías (1%).
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts: Sometimes getting in on the favorite in a market before the price(s) gets too out of line is a great trading approach, and that’s what I feel we have here with Olivia Dean, a gorgeous 26-year-old singer-songwriter from London, England. At 70¢, this is still the time to buy.
Hosted by Trevor Noah again, the 2026 GRAMMY’s will be airing from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Sunday, February 1, 2026 (CBS, Paramount+, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST). Trading Pick: Olivia Dean, Yes 70¢
2026-27 College Football National Championship Winner
To say the 2025-26 College Football season was a big success would be an understatement. The College Football Playoff was pure cinema and the DI Championship between Montana State and Illinois State was an absolute thriller, going to the first OT ever with the Bobcats winning, 35-34.
And Indiana. Never daunted indeed. There aren’t words for what HC Curt Cignetti, Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza, and IU (#2 Scoring D, #4 Scoring O) did in 2025-26, has done the last two years, and how many guys have committed to Bloomington for next season.
The Hoosiers became the first team to ever go 16-0 and did it in the second-most viewed cable telecast ever, setting a record for Point Differential (+473) while beating 6 ranked teams while showing that players like Mendoza can be humble and love his mom and dad more than any game.
So who are the schools traders like for the 2026-27 season? Texas (17%), Ohio State (16%), Indiana (16%), Notre Dame (15%), Georgia (15%), Oregon (15%), LSU (10%), and Texas Tech (10%) are the expected usual suspects we see at the Kalshi prediction exchange, and all but the Fighting Irish made the 2025 CFP field.
➤Trading Thoughts: A prisoner of the moment maybe, but I really like IU’s chances again next season. And not because I believe Mark Cuban will lure Mendoza with money to stay in the quaint campus town where it rains crabapples. The 2026 Hoosiers schedule isn’t too bad, with Ohio State and USC at home and Michigan and Washington the biggest road challenges.
A potential loss to the Buckeyes in Bloomington won’t kill Indiana’s CFP chances, but would make the game at Ann Arbor much more important to avoid a possible second setback. The names Cignetti is bringing into Bloomington are just too hard to ignore. Trading Pick: Indiana, Yes 16¢
Napoli Hosts Chelsea in UCL Tournament on Wednesday
League Phase play of the UEFA Champions League tournament and Matchday 8 with games on Tuesday and Wednesday, including EPL side Chelsea FC (4-1-2, 13 PTS) traveling to Italy to face SSC Napoli (2-2-3, 8 PTS) at Diego Maradona Stadium (Grass) in Napoli (Paramount+, 3 ET/12 PT).
In Matchday 7 play, Chelsea defeated Pafos at Stamford Bridge on January 21, 1-0 as the Blues got their lone goal from Moisés Caicedo while Napoli tied FC Copenhagen, 1-1 in Denmark. For now, only Chelsea would advance to the Knockout Phase of the prestigious UCL tourney.
At Kalshi, Soccer traders like Cole Palmer and visiting Chelsea (43%) over Rasmus Højlund and Napoli (32%) with a Draw priced at 26% with Over 2.5 goals scored trading at 55% and Chelsea wins by over 1.5 goals at 23%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Lifetime, these two have met twice in UEFA Champions League play (2012) with both sides winning at home, Chelsea, 4-1 at Stamford Bridge on March 14, 2012 and SSC Napoli winning at home at Diego Maradona Stadium, 3-1 on February 21, 2012.
In the Blues win, legends Didier Drogba, John Terry, and Frank Lampard all scored with Chelsea ending up advancing on aggregate (5-4) with a 2nd Half goal from Branislav Ivanović being the difference in a season that saw the Blues win Europe’s big prize. Trading Pick: Draw, Yes 28¢
ESPN Features Nice NBA Doubleheader on Wednesday
The 2025-26 NBA Regular Season continues and heads toward the 2026 NBA All-Star Break, and on Wednesday evening there is a menu of nine games on the hardwood, including a timely doubleheader from ESPN featuring two pretty good games and storylines.
The first sees 41-year-old Lebron James returning to his hometown (Akron) of Cleveland as his LA Lakers (27-17, 15-9 Road) to face his old team, Cleveland (27-20, 15-11 Home) in an enticing interconference game from Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio (ESPN, 7 EST/4 PST).
The second game has Victor Wembayama (24.8 PPG, 10.8 PPG) and San Antonio (31-15, 14-9 Road) facing Kevin Durant and Houston (27-16, 15-3 Home) in a big Lone Star State and Southwest Conference collision at the Toyota Center in Houston (ESPN, 9:30 EST/6:30 PST).
Traders at Kalshi like Cleveland (62%) over Luka Dončić and the LA Lakers (38%) and Houston (58%) over San Antonio (43%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Spurs are an impressive 8-2 vs the Southwest Division, including a 111-102 setback a week ago in H-Town as F Julian Champagnie had a great game for the visitors, scoring 27 points and grabbing 8 rebounds as first-place SA saw a 4-game win streak snapped
Many see this young Spurs team as a one-man show, but nothing could be further from the truth with guys like G De’Aaron Fox (20.4), G Stephon Castle (17.0 PPG), and G Devin Vassell (15.0 PPG). But is SA the team to beat in the NBA? Trading Pick: Houston Rockets Game Winner, Yes 58¢
Hamburg SV Hosting Bayern in Bundesliga on Saturday
German Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich (16-2-1, 73 GF-16 GA) look to bounce back from its first loss in league play when it faces Hamburg SV (4-6-8, 17GF-27 GA) from Volksparkstadion (Grass) in Hamburg Norderstedt, Germany on Saturday (ESPN+, 12:30 EST/9:30 PST) in German Bundesliga play.
Harry Kane (21 goals), Michael Olise (10 goals, 13 assists) and Bayern started 2026 off as hot as it ended 2025, winning its first three Bundesliga matches by a combined 16-3 in results that saw 4 or more goals every game and the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘Yes’ collecting in all three matches.
Soccer traders at Kalshi are strongly behind Bayern Munich (77%) against Hamburg SV (12%) with a Draw at 16%. Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals and was trading at 57% with Over 3.5 goals scored at 54%.
VOLKSPARK STADIUM
➤Trading Thoughts: In Fußball-Club Bayern München e. V. we trust. In the last five meetings between Bayern and Hamburg in all competitions (including Friendlies), Die Bayern is 5-0-0, outscoring Die Rothosen 24-1, so you know what to do here if you trade sports.
Bayern never loses and tramples opponents and often goes Over the Totals in prediction markets (and sportsbooks) themselves. With Olise providing assists as well as goals alongside Kane, and veteran Manuel Neuer, possibly playing his last season, in goal, this will be the strongest recommendation in this edition of TPR. Trading Pick: Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals, Yes 56¢
NCAA DI Women’s College Basketball Champion Futures
The 2025–26 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball season continues and we see the same two giants dominating the landscape in defending national champions and undefeated and #1 ranked Connecticut (19-0) and 2022 and 2024 national champions #2 South Carolina (19-1).
In the Women’s College Basketball Winner market (national champion) at Kalshi, traders are strongly behind Sarah Strong and Connecticut (66%), followed by UCLA (13%)—#3 in the AP Women's College Basketball rankings—South Carolina (12%), and Texas (10%).
Three longer-shots listed in the market on January 26 were LSU (8%), TCU (7%), and Vanderbilt (7%). The best team from the Big Ten, #7 Michigan (15-2), didn’t even register at 1% in the still young market which had $45,176 in volume and may be worth a look as a longshot (Yes 4¢).
UCONN
The Women’s DI Regular Season will come to an end on March 1, 2026, with most Conference Tournaments being played from March 4-8 (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC). The 2026 DI Women’s Tournament tips off on March 18 with the First Four and the Championship is April 5 in Phoenix.
➤Trading Thoughts: Expect UConn and SC to be the #1 seed in their regions, and we can anticipate both will make it to the Final Four and possibly have to play each other in the Final Four or the Championship Game. Last year, the Huskies trounced the Gamecocks, 82-59 to win the title.
So Connecticut was a perfect 24-0 last year, hasn’t lost this campaign and has Strong (18.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) back along with Azzi Fudd (17.3 PPG), Blanca Quiñonez (10.6 PPG), and four players averaging between 7.1 and 7.6 PPG and the best Head Coach around (Geno Auriemma).
This one seems simple in January and the logic here would be to get the Huskies at this price before many sports traders start focusing on Women’s hoops in six to seven weeks. UConn was priced at 63¢ at Kalshi and Polymarket had no NCAAW market. Trading Pick: Connecticut, Yes 66¢
Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year Winner a Toss-Up
The 2025-26 Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year is one of the most prestigious awards in collegiate sports, the little brother of the Heisman Trophy in a way. Last year, it was Duke’s Cooper Flagg who won this award, before being picked #1 by the Dallas Mavericks in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Traders at Polymarket were strongly behind F Caleb Wilson (80%) of #22 North Carolina with Duke F Cameron Boozer (47%), #19 Kansas G Darryn Peterson (21.6/4.6./1.9) and #17 Alabama G Labaron Philon Jr (22.0/3.5/4.9) also at 43%.
Others seeing ‘Yes’ contracts were #23 Louisville G Mikel Brown Jr (42%; 16.6/3.0/5/1),). BYU F AJ Dybantsa (42%, 22.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.5 APG), Purdue G Braden Smith (41%), and Texas Tech F JT Toppin (13%, 21.6/10.8), so this still is a wide-open market which is awarded annually by the Atlanta Tipoff Club.
Polymarket
Named after the peach basket-crazy Canadian inventor of basketball, James Naismith, this trophy has gone to some players including Lew Alcindor (Kareen Abdul Jabbar), Pete Maravich, Bill Walton (3x), Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Durant Durant.
➤Trading Thoughts: The numbers Tar Heels Forward Wilson are putting up are impressive (19.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 2.8 APG) and it’s easy to see why the 6-10, 215-pound Atlanta product is getting so much love. But there is a long way to go in this NCAA basketball season and others are worthy.
Who? The Big 12 has a bunch in Peterson and Dybantsa—who will be playing on Saturday in a game we preview for you here at TPR below—and the Red Raiders Toppin, but I’m not sure he’ll get enough of the hardwood limelight. Boozer, the big favorite at Kalshi, will also be in the final mix.
Comparing the Kalshi and Polymarket markets for this award, we see drastically different numbers with Kalshi’s seeming more realistic and with almost three times the volume ($185K) as Polymarket ($65K) on January 26. Shop around. Trading Pick: AJ Dybantsa, BYU, Yes 19¢ (Kalshi)