Whereas insider trading is forbidden and illegal in the stock markets, those profiting and making trades in prediction markets are not subject to the same strict and moral rules governing the more conventional markets. And there are two sides of thinking whether or not this is OK.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently said, “If you want the truth about the world, insiders are the only path” and feels their presence and alpha is necessary in prediction markets. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says his company disallows it and that he is all for the feds banning insider trading.
Last Monday we heard about a trader with a newly created account at Polymarket who bet $30,000 that (then-) Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be captured on the Friday before the extraction to collect $436,760 after US forces had the 63-year-old in custody.
“It just defies belief that this wasn’t insider information,” gambling industry consultant Dustin Gouker told Axios in an interview about the big Maduro trade at Polymarket.
When asked to comment about the trade by Axios, Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not respond. So we are in the supercycle age of prediction markets but it is still like the Wild Wild West in terms of being refined and “fair” products.
We poked fun at some of the goofier issues we have seen traded in prediction markets in the Tuesday, January 6, 2026 edition of The Prediction Report, so it’s only fair now to look at some of the trades possibly made with insider information as integrity keeps being questioned.
People in politics, business, entertainment, sports, and other areas will always be in a position to have valuable information—like those in the president’s inner circle or even someone like Survivor host Jeff Probst who knows which three castaways made it to finale night with the hit show taped.
Google’s Most Searched Items Also Too Good To Be True?
In December, iGamingToday reported about a Polymarket user now using the public address @0xafEe (formerly under the alias AlphaRaccoon) who made almost $1 million in profit by going 22-for-23 on what topics would rank in Google’s annual list of the most searched items.
At this stage of prediction market infancy, it seems if this member did have privileged information about Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings, then there is probably not much anyone can do about it. But it does show a certain weakness in PMs that will eventually need to be addressed.
The trader deposited around $3 million into the Polymarket wallet according to blockchain records and then proceeded to be right about the outcomes of 22 of 23 markets, raising eyebrows in the crypto, tech, and sports gambling communities.
This is just another example of suspicious trading we see on an almost weekly basis at popular prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. If people know any results or winners of shows well before finale night, it ruins the fun of watching and detracts from the overall viewing experience.
Maduro Extraction Not Ruled an “Invasion” at Polymarket
There was more PM controversy last week at Polymarket with the aforementioned capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and whether or not the actions by US Special Forces were deemed an “invasion” of the South American nation which has really been in the news a lot of late.
Some traders in the ‘Will US Invade Venezuela by__’ issue at Polymarket were frustrated after the ruling and the comments section soon became a sea of mad and sarcastic traders or spectators.
“Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness," said one in the comments section. “Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognized meaning, and facts are simply ignored. That is a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”
And it’s hard to argue. But remember to always read the rules in each market and trade with as healthy a degree of skepticism as possible. If you are worried about the potential fairness, morality, or integrity of a market, it may be best to pass or look elsewhere in PMs for greener pastures.
Who Will be the Venezuela Leader at the End of 2026?
At Polymarket, traders are heavily ($1,191,359 volume on January 6) into the ’ Venezuela Leader End of 2026?’ where there are some familiar names seeing ‘Yes’ contracts bought. With former President Nicolás Maduro captured by the US last week, who knows what will happen next.
Vice President and now acting President Delcy Rodríguez (51%) leads at the prediction market, followed by 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado (21%), Edmundo González (8%), and the extracted ex-president himself, Nicolás Maduro (6%).
Venezuela leader end of 2025?
Longer shots and stranger selections include Diosdado Cabello Rondon (5%), four-star Bolivian general Vladimir Padrino López (3%), Jorge Rodríguez (2%), and No Head of State (1%).
Remember if getting involved in this market is that it will take 11 months to be resolved, the outcome may be controversial, and it could be a name that isn’t even listed for trading right now.
Will the United Kingdom Ban Grok Before March?
If I would have asked you 20 years ago “Will the UK ban Grok?,” you might think that this Grok thing is either bad tobacco, new drug, or food additive under major scrutiny, a monster the likes of King Kong or Godzilla, or maybe an exiled serial killer from somewhere like Grökland.
But no. Grok is not an e-cigarette, but an evolving Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbot from Eon Musk’s xAI company that has been integrated into the X (formerly Twitter) social media platform which answers users questions in a witty way and very quickly.
Grok—just suspended in Indonesia for the use of AI-generated pornographic content—was a bad boy for a short period in 2025 but seems to be acting better now under his code-writing overlords after displaying some Nazi-like tendencies and he was sent to his bedroom.
Will the UK ban Grok before March?
Grok—launched in 2023 by Musk—now has this worldwide PR problem of people seeing the AI tool can be used to make sexualized and nonconsensual images of people. After the backlash, Musk changed Grok with the AI image generation reply bot now being put behind a paywall.
At Robinhood, you can trade on whether or not you think the United Kingdom (UK) Will Ban Grok before March 1, 2026 with the ‘Yes’ contracts trading at 37% on Monday, January, 12, 2026. On January 7, ‘Yes’ contracts could be had here for just 7¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: The sentiment is understood here but it doesn’t seem to rise to the level of banworthiness, especially after the paywall change for the naughty tool. February is a short month but with the deep fakes issue maybe a bigger thing than the manipulation of images and Musk saying the UK “want(s) any excuse for censorship," who knows what happens.Trading Pick: None
Will Sports PMs be Banned in Any State by March 31?
The ‘Will Sports Prediction Markets be Banned in Any US State by March 31?’ market at Polymarket is a revealing one, and on January 7, traders were giving this outcome a 36% chance of resolving ‘Yes,’ but like many we are discussing this volume, is, and could continue to be cloudy and it is now trading at 19%, down significantly in the last five days.
Many US states are currently in fights in the courts with Kalshi about whether or not the prediction market can be up and running in their states. One of those states is Nevada, and for now, Kalshi has been ordered by a federal judge to stop offering sports contracts in the state.
And with sports the big majority of the trading in PMs, this is a huge blow. But with sports gambling already legal in the Silver State and the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) and state regulators wanting to protect their casinos and sportsbooks, a cease-and-desist order was issued.
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state by March 31?
So it seems this market should already be resolved as a ‘Yes’? Not so fast. The rules always matter in prediction markets and this one has specifics and is worth reading. The phrase “pending litigation” is the key, and in Nevada, this case is still in the appeals process.
Expect this one, and maybe sports contracts rulings in other states, to continue through the courts with the big question—are sports contracts on PMs are financial derivatives or simply the same thing as sports betting—likely ending up in the US Supreme Court where anything could happen.
1. FC Cologne Hosts Bayern in Bundesliga on Wednesday
Harry Kane (19 goals) and still unbeaten Bayern Munich (14-2-0) head to RheinEnergieStadion (Grass) in Cologne, Germany to face 1. FC Cologne (4-5-7) in German Bundesliga play on Wednesday (ESPN+, 2:30 EST/2:30 CST/11:30 PST).
Traders at Kalshi are strongly behind Bayern Munich (80%) over 1. FC Cologne (12%) with a Draw trading at 11%. Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals is trading at 58% with the Over 3.5 goals scored currently at 61%.
RheinEnergie
➤Trading Thoughts: Besides Kane, Fußball-Club Bayern München can get scoring from Luis Diaz (8 goals), Michael Olise (7 goals), and Serge Gnabry (4 goals) and with living legend Manuel Neuer in goal, it’s now wonder this team had the league pretty much won before Christmas.
In the last 5 meetings, Bayern Munich went 4-1-0 vs 1. FC Cologne, outscoring them 10-3 in the process including an easy 4-1 win in their German Cup meeting here on October 29, 2025 as Kane had a brace and Diaz and Olise added goals. Trading Pick: Bayern Munich Match Winner, Yes 77¢
Chelsea Host Arsenal in EFL Cup Quarters Wednesday
João Pedro and Chelsea FC welcome London rivals and defending EPL champions and current leaders Arsenal FC to West Lonon and Stamford Bridge (GrassMaster) on Wednesday in the English Carabao Cup (EFL) quarterfinals (Paramount+, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
At the Polymarket exchange, traders are behind visiting Arsenal (43%) against Chelsea (29%) with a Draw also at 29% in the match winner market. At Kalshi in the Carabao Cup (EFL Cup Winner market), traders are behind Manchester City (39%) to lift the trophy over Arsenal (37%), and Chelsea (15%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Blues have had trouble with the Gunners of late in the North West London Derby, with Chelsea going 1-3-6 vs Arsenal in the last 10 EPL clashes, scoring just 2 goals in 4 matches. The hosts welcomed back playmaker Cole Palmer and will need his creativity here.
This is not only a results pick, but a psychological one as the Gunners have had the Blues number of late as the West London club continues to shuffle new managers in and out at Stamford Bridge to little club evolution, despite the money spent.Trading Pick: Arsenal Match Winner 43¢
PSG Facing Lille in France Ligue 1 Play on Friday
Ousmane Dembélé and France Ligue 1 heavyweights Paris Saint-Germain (12-3-2) play host to Lille (10-2-5) from Parc des Princes (Desso GrassMaster) in Paris, France on Friday (3 EST/2 CST/12 PST) in a match the home team needs to win in its league race with Lens.
Kalshi traders are backing hosts Paris Saint-Germain (70%) over Lille OSC (12%) with a Draw (Tie) at 20%. Paris Saint-Germain to win by 1.5 goals is 43% while over 3.5 goals scored is at 37%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Futures traders at the exchange were strongly behind PSG to ultimately be the Ligue 1 Winner in France at 90% way ahead of Lens (8%) and Marseille (6%).
Lifetime, PSG is 29-14-8 vs Lille and in the last 4 league meetings at PSG, the home team is 4-0-0 (13 GF-6 GA) and Les Dogues haven’t beaten Les Parisiens since 2021. When they met earlier this season in Northern France, it ended in a 1-1 draw when Ethan Mbappé equalized for Lille late (85'). Trading Pick: Paris Saint-Germain Match Winner, Yes 70¢
United Welcome City in Big Manchester Derby on Saturday
Erling Haaland (20 goals) and noisy neighbors Manchester City FC (13-4-4) head to Old Trafford (Desso GrassMaster) to battle Manchester United FC (9-5-7) in Trafford, Greater Manchester on Saturday (USA, 7:30 EST/6:30 CST/4:30 PST) in one of the great rivalries in all of sports.
EPL traders at Kalshi are behind visitors Manchester City (53%) over Manchester United (27%) with a Tie (Draw) at 25% and the traders’ second choice. Manchester City to win by 1.5 goals is 30% while over 3.5 goals scored is at 43%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Red Devils are 80-55-62 in the 197 Manchester derbies but the Citizens are 2-2-1 (6 GF-2 GA) in their last 5 at Old Trafford, registering 4 clean sheets in those 5 fixtures. Since November 2021 in EPL play, City is 6-2-1 vs United, scoring in every meeting but one (2025).
Motivationally speaking, Phil Foden (7 goals) and the Sky Blues are chasing Arsenal and need to get their 3 points where they can get them and Greater Manchester has been very good to this dominant European club.
When these two met earlier this EPL season at Etihad Stadium and Sky Blue Mancunia, City shut out United, 3-0 behind goals from Foden (18’) and that man Haaland (43’, 58’) as GK Gianluigi Donnarumma got the clean sheet. Trading Pick: Manchester City Match Winner, Yes 59¢
Real Sociedad Hosting Barcelona in La Liga on Sunday
Ferran Torres (11 goals) and La Liga leaders Barcelona (16-1-2) head to Reale Arena, Anoeta Stadium in San Sebastián, Basque Country, Spain to face struggling Real Sociedad (4-6-8) on Sunday (ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, 3 EST/2CST/12 PST).
When these two met on September 28, 2025 at Camp Nou, Barça won 2-1, rallying from a 1-0 deficit 30 minutes in behind goals from Jules Koundé (43') and veteran Robert Lewandowski (59’).
Soccer traders at Kalshi like Barcelona (63%) over host Real Sociedad (20%) with a Draw (Tie) trading at 21% and Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals at 40% and Over 3.5 goals scored at 45%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Catalans are on a roll, defeating rivals Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup over the weekend and starting the new year off unbeaten (3-0-0, 10 GF-2 GA) after a perfect December (6-0-0, 16 GF-5 GA), Barça has won 10 straight with its last loss to Chelsea in the UCL.
With this team clicking on all cylinders, the trading ideas here would be to bet the team on a roll and lay the 1.5 goals as well as the Over 3.5 goals for an equal amount. At the current price, you can get one of each for less than $1 with hopes of turning both into $1. Trading Pick: Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals, Yes 40¢, Over 3.5 goals scored, Yes 48¢
Sabalenka Predicted Women’s Australian Open Winner
The 2026 Australian Open began Monday (January 18) at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia with the 114th edition of the year’s first Grand Slam event in tennis being competed Down Under until February 1 with the Men’s and Women’s Singles titles the real hardcourt Vegemite.
In the ‘Women’s Australian Open Winner’ market at Kalshi, Aryna Sabalenka (34%) was the traders choice over Iga Świątek (11%) with American Amanda Anisimova (9%), Kazakhstani Elena Rybakina (8%), American Coco Gauff (7%), and Russian Mirra Andreeva (6%) all being given some chance on the platform.
Longshots with the least ‘Yes’ contracts in the popular market ($234,868 volume January 6) were and Japan’s two-time AO winner Naomi Osaka (5%), Czech Republic’s Karolína Muchová (2%), Canadian Victoria Mboko (2%), and Romanian Emma Rădacanu (2%). American legend Venus Williams was granted a Wild Card entry into the AO.
➤Trading Thoughts: Two-time AO winner (2023, 2024) Sabalenka (#1 WTA Rankings) and Świątek (#2) deserve the attention and Sabalenka will be driven by memories of last year when she lost to American Madison Keys in three sets to stop a two-year win streak on the blue courts.
Lifetime, Świątek is 8-5 head-to-head (H2H) vs Sabalenka but Sabalenka has been playing the better tennis in recent years. Sabalenka will definitely be the woman to beat here, but looking at players like Anisimova and Rybakina may prove wise. Trading Pick: Aryna Sabalenka, Yes 34¢