Prediction Markets can be a lot like Walmart, aisles and aisles of colorful products all meant to make our lives as good as can be for a culture where only half of the households had electricity in them 100 years ago. There is something for everyone and almost to the point of overkill it seems. But markets are there for a reason and whether they become liquid or not or are entertaining or even profitable sometimes seems secondary to the circus we see in this PM supercycle. Some markets are just silly or there for entertainment so let’s poke fun at some in this edition.
Polymarket
President Trump has come up with some pretty far out ideas in the first year of his second term in the White House, including thoughts the United States would make Canada the 51st state, much to the chagrin of the vast majority of our lovely neighbors up in the Great White North.
And Polymarket served up the ‘Will the U.S. Acquire Canadian Territory in 2025?’ market for traders and it peaked at a high of 9.0% there on March 17, 2025 but was trading at less than 1% (0.2%) on December 28, 2025, so anyone buying ‘Yes’ in this goofiness, please collect.
’Will the US Acquire Greenland in 2025? Another ‘No’
Trump has also made it clear he has his eyes on Greenland, some 2,622 miles away from Washington, DC and Polymarket also has two markets on that possibility with ‘Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?’
Why the wording on the Canadian market was ‘the US’ and why it is ‘Trump’ here is strange, but maybe Trump thinks he can buy or barter for it in some strange delusional modern deal. Like the Canadiens, the residents of Greenland would more than likely prefer to stay just the way they are.
The ‘Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?’ market was also at 0.2% on December 28, 2025 and will also be resolved a ‘Yes.’ It had a robust $5,464,490 in trading volume at Polymarket, an exchange that was offline in the US for the vast majority of 2025.
And the ‘Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? market was trading at 8% on December 30, down 3% from an opening high of 11% on December 22.
‘Will Trump Reopen Alcatraz in 2025?’ Rewards ‘No’ Buyers
Another idea floated from the Trump administration was to reopen Alcatraz Island, the small island near the Golden Gate Strait off San Francisco, California in the San Francisco Bay which was made into the Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary in 1934 and surrounded by icy-cold tidal currents and shark-infested waters.
Alcatraz housed such famous inmates as Al Capone, George "Machine Gun" Kelly, and Robert Stroud (“The Birdman of Alcatraz”) but was shut down on March 21, 1963 and is now a major tourist attraction in the Bay Area, attracting around 1.4 million visitors every year.
The US federal government owns Alcatraz and the island and its facilities are part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area (GGNRA) and are managed by the National Park Service (NPS) making Alcatraz a public park and historic landmark accessible to visitors, not a private entity.
At Polymarket, you could trade on ‘Will Trump Reopen Alcatraz in 2025?’, and this weird but not-too liquid market ($66,228) was also at 0.2% (‘Yes’) on December 30, 2025 after peaking at 13% on May 5, trends very similar to the Canada and Greenland acquisition overreactions.
PM Traders Shun the Idea of Any Political Jailing for Revenge
President Trump came into his second term with a great deal of anger and perceived revenge in his mind, constantly disrespecting his predecessor and demeaning many who he deemed enemies in his mind, for whatever reason(s) or from whoever was speaking last in his ear.
And surrounded by the likes of Elon Musk, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, AG Pam Bondi, Director of the FBI Kash Patel, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and as the Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, among scores of others, Trump has definitely been sold many ideas of what to do with his power.
At Polymarket, you can find markets like ’Will Trump Jail Fauci?’ (<1%), ’Will Trump Jail Liz Cheney?’ (<1%), ‘Will Trump Jail a Biden Family Member? (<1%), ‘Will Trump Jail Adam Kinzinger?’ (<1%), and even ‘Will Trump jail Elon Musk?’ (<1%).
Just a friendly reminder that all markets are not created equally nor need to be taken seriously, although taking profits from some of the goofiness cannot be discarded. And not all markets need to be traded if they go against your moral grain. Things like deaths, volcanoes, and even men climbing tall buildings can push the limits of decency and what one will trade on to try to profit.
Sports are the top traded markets in PMs and always will be and there are so many reasons why. Games, races, boxing and MMA matches may all seem goofy in their own context to someone looking in, but imprisonment or death isn’t wished upon by anyone involved. Games are just games.
Now revenge? It would be impossible to think that owners, managers, players, and fans of opposing sports teams aren’t always wanting to exact some degree of revenge from the rivals or a team that has messed up your chance at a championship. Sports thrives on the revenge mentality.
‘Who Will Trump Pardon?’ an Interesting Market
The ‘Who Will Trump Pardon?’ market from Kalshi isn’t quite as silly, and offers a look into the collective wisdom of the masses and who they believe our Commander in Chief may elect (or have to) pardon while he is still in power there at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC.
The top three names in this market were, to no one’s surprise, Donald J Trump (55%) himself, American software developer and Samourai Wallet co-founder Keonne Rodriguez (53%), and his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr. (50%).
There are a number of names trading between 30%-40% for potential Trump pardons including Edward Snowden, Derek Chauvin, son-in-law Jared Kushner, Sam Bankman-Fried, son Barron Trump, former New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Robin Smith, Julian Assange, and Steve Bannon.
Also trading in the more skeptical of a pardon 19%-26% range were Jeffrey Epstein friend Ghislaine Maxwell (26%), Prakazrel Michel (Pras, 25%), Kisean Anderson (Sean Kingston, 25%), Matt Borges (24%), Larry Householder (23%), and disgraced rapper Sean Combs (Diddy, 19%).
That last paragraph is one you wouldn’t want your name in. If Trump pardons Maxwell and/or Combs, expect some major public backlash as those issues go way beyond party lines and make the power of the presidency and the ability to issue pardons suspect and an embarrassment to the US.
The man made famous by the Netflix doc Tiger King, Joe Exotic (Joseph Maldonado-Passage), was trading below Combs at 17% but ahead of Hunter Biden (6%), son of Joe Biden. Maldonado is serving a 21-year federal prison sentence for a plot to hire someone to murder Carole Baskin.
PredictIt: Israel’s Netanyahu to Stay Through March
Like most world leaders these strange days, the reign of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a rocky one, with the 76-year-old having assumed the role or prime minister of the Middle East nation in 2022 after also serving from 1996-199 and 2009-2021.
At the Politics-heavy PredictIt, traders are weighing in on the ‘Will Netanyahu Remain Israeli Prime Minister Through March 2026?’ market with Netanyahu being given a vote of confidence with 96¢ the latest ‘Yes’ price on January 5 (Best Yes Offer 98¢, Best No Offer 5¢).
This is an election year in Israel, and one must take place by October. Now riding his partnership with US President Trump, incumbent Netanyahu has called to move the elections up to June. And Israeli law permits the PM to dissolve the Knesset (parliament) to call for early elections, as long as the president—in this case the also Tel Aviv-born Isaac Herzog—approves.
Power is as power does. But age can also be the enemy and Netanyahu (76) and Trump (80 on June 14, 2026) aren’t spring chickens and are almost the same ages as ageless living country icons Willie Nelson (92) and Dolly Parton (79). Ronald Reagan was 77 when he left office after his second term.
Nuggets in Boston to Face Celtics on Wednesday Night
The Nuggets (23-12, 13-7 Road) head to Beantown on Wednesday night to play Jalen Brown and the Celtics (22-12, 10-5 Home) at TD Garden (ESPN, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST) in what looked like a great interconference matchup before Denver C Nikola Jokić suffered an injury.
At the Polymarket exchange, traders are behind the host Celtics (74%) against the Nuggets (46%) in the game winner market.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Celtics are 2-1 vs the Southwest Division while the Nuggets are 6-3 vs the Eastern Conference and haven’t played a team from the Atlantic Division until this one. When these two met last season, Boston swept, winning 110-103 at Home and 118-106 in Denver.
With Jokić out with that knee injury and Boston looking to keep pace with the Knicks and the
In the East, logic says the C’s find a way to win by 10 or more with no Serbian big man trying to stop their flow on offense or drop 40 points on their heads. Trading Pick: Celtics Game Winner 76¢
Lakers at Spurs in ESPN Doubleheader on Wednesday
LeBron James and the Lakers (20-10, 12-5 Road) head to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Wednesday night to face Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs (23-9, 11-4 at Home) in the second game of a primetime doubleheader airing on ESPN (9:30 EST/8:30 CST/6:30 PST).
Pro basketball traders at Kalshi like host San Antonio (64%) over Luka Dončić and Los Angeles (36%), Before trading on this contest, it would be a good idea to check the status of Wembanyama who has been nursing a knee injury of late.
➤Trading Thoughts: LA has been very good on the road to open this season, but winning here against this energized team will prove difficult. Besides Wembayama (24.0 PPG), SA has six others in double-figures including De’Aaron Fox (21.6), Stephon Castle (18.5), and Devin Vassell (15.0). This is a very young and deep team growing up before our eyes as we saw in beating OKC twice.
With pride at stake and knowing this is on ESPN, expect a solid effort from the kids from Texas in what should be a high-scoring and somewhat entertaining game, depending how hard LBJ, Luka, and the older Lakers play.Trading Pick: San Antonio Game Winner, Yes 67¢
Crystal Palace Faces Torrid Aston Villa in Wednesday EPL
EPL third-place side Aston Villa (13-3-4) heads to Londontown to play Crystal Palace (7-6-7) from Selhurst Park (GrassMaster) in South London on Wednesday (ESPN, 2:30 ET/1:30 CT/11:20 PT).
The Eagles are led on the attack by Jean-Phillipe Mateta (7 goals) while Villa has seen Morgan Rogers (7 goals) explode with Ollie Watkins (3 goals), Donyell Malen (4 goals), and Emiliano Buendia (4 goals) all leading this recent Villains surge.
Kalshi traders are backing visitors Aston Villa (42%) over host Crystal Palace (32%) with a Draw (Tie) at 30%. Aston Villa to win by 1.5 goals is 20% while over 2.5 goals scored is at 51%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 10 series meetings in all competitions, (EPL, FA Cup, EFL Cup), Palace is a surprising 6-2-2, unbeaten in the last 5 meetings (4-1-0) and outscoring Villa 14-4 in the process with two 3-0 clean sheets in the last two meetings. This one will be good.
The problem in offering any trading advice here is that one club has been dominant in recent meetings in the series (Crystal Palace) while the other club (Aston Villa) has been playing out of this world (W12 of 13, 9 straight by 1 goal at one point) and finding ways to win. The Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) market may be worth a look.Trading Pick: None
Arsenal Hosting Liverpool in EPL Fixture on Thursday
The defending English Premier League (EPL) champions and first-place Arsenal (15-3-2) play host to fourth-place and now surging Liverpool (10-4-6) from Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in North London on Thursday (3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
The Gunners are led on the attack by Viktor Gyökeres (4 goals), Bukayo Saka (4 goals), and Leandro Trossard (4 goals, 3 assists) but it’s GK David Raya and the defense that’s kept Arsenal on top of the table. The Reds started off bad, but LFC has righted the ship of late, going 5-4-0 in its L9.
EPL traders at Kalshi are behind Arsenal (62%) over Liverpool (18%) with a Draw (Tie) at 23% and the traders second choice. Arsenal to win by 1.5 goals is 37% while over 2.5 goals scored is at 58%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Gunners were strong in December (5-1-1) beating Crystal Palace in PKs (8-7) in the Carabao Cup and only losing to red-hot Aston Villa. And the Reds have also been in much better form heading into 2026 although striker Mo Salah has lost some of his electricity.
Looking at the last 10 meetings, Liverpool is 4-4-2 vs Arsenal, winning the last meeting 1-0 at Anfield on August 31. The Gunners are 2-2-1 (W-D-L) in the last 5 EPL meetings in London. Both clubs had scored in 6 of the previous 7 meetings. Trading Pick: Both Teams To Score, Yes 57¢
CFP Semifinals at Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Kicks Off Thursday
The first College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal kicks off on Thursday night with the 2026 Fiesta Bowl with #10 Miami (FLA) (13-2) meting #6 Ole Miss (13-1) at State Farm Stadium (Tifway 419 Hybrid Bermuda Grass) in Glendale, AZ (ESPN, 7:30 EST/6:30 CST/4:30 PST).
The Hurricanes upset the defending national champion Buckeyes in the CFP Quarterfinal from the Cotton Bowl on Friday in Arlington, Texas, 24-14 while the Rebels upset the #3 Bulldogs, 39-34 in the CFP Quarterfinal from the Sugar Bowl from New Orleans on January 1.
The winner moves on to the CFP Championship from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Monday, January 19 (ESPN, 7:30 ET/4:30 PT). Miami (FL) (60%) is the choice at Kalshi over Ole Miss (40%) with Miami (FL) wins by over 3.5 points at 49% and Over 51.5 points scored at 50%.
➤Trading Thoughts: It seemed like it would be Ohio State-Georgia at The Big Toaster, but we have Miami and Ole Miss fighting to play for the national championship. It’s hard to overlook how good the line play has been for the Hurricanes, with Rueben Bain Jr and the Canes defense holding down #7 Texas A&M and #2 Ohio State to get here.
With QB Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels have a chance for the upset here, but consistently moving the chains against the Canes is like trying to grow corn in concrete and it’s hard to see Ole Miss scoring 20 or more while Miami (FL) should have 23 points or more. A win means Miami would get to play in Miami for all the marbles. Trading Pick: Miami (Florida) Wins By Over 2.5 points, Yes 60¢
CFP Semifinal at Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Plays Friday
The second Semifinal of the CFP and second-to-last college football game of the season will be played on Friday night with the 2026 Peach Bowl with #1 Indiana (14-0) facing #4 Oregon (13-1) from Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf Core) in Atlanta (ESPN, 7:30 EST/6:30 CST/4:30 PST).
The Hoosiers crushed #9 Alabama in the CFP Quarterfinal from the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day in Pasadena, California, 38-3 while the #5 Ducks shut out #4 Texas Tech, 24-0 in the CFP Quarterfinal from the Orange Bowl in Miami, also on January 1. Oregon’s lone loss was to Indiana.
The winner will move on to the CFP Championship from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Monday, January 19 (ESPN, 7:30 EST/6:30 CST/4:30 PST). Indiana (62%) is the choice of Kalshi traders over Oregon (38%) with Indiana wins by over 3.5 points at 51% and Over 46.5 points scored at 54%.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two Big Ten Conference powers met in Eugene, Oregon in the Regular Season, Heisman Trophy winner and likely #1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Fernando Mendoza and Indiana won an impressive 30-20 battle with the Hoosiers scoring in every quarter.
This game could feature the #1 and #2 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft with Ducks QB Dante Moore just as coveted a prospect as Mendoza. Expect a fast pace here and with the (Total) points scored market at 46.5, it seems the situation, surface, offenses will have to score on the defenses. Trading Pick: Over 46.5 Points Scored, Yes 54¢