The last week of the 2025 NCAA Division I FBS Regular Season was played last weekend and now we have nine mouth-watering FBS conference championship games on the schedule for Friday and Saturday with the annual Army-Navy game coming next weekend on Saturday, December 13.
In this College Football-heavy issue of The Prediction Report, we will provide all of the basic information prediction market traders will need to find where and when to watch these games as well as links to the market on Kalshi or Polymarket and the current contract trading numbers.
Many of these games will have huge implications as who does and who doesn’t make the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) which is revealed every Tuesday night on ESPN on College Football Playoff: Top 25 (7 EST/6 CST/5 PST).
Heading into these nine FBS championship games this weekend, CFP ranked #1 Ohio State, #2 Indiana, #3 Georgia, and #4 Texas Tech would all have First Round byes and would be host sites. But with the #1 Buckeyes and #2 Hoosiers meeting on Saturday, we know that will all change.
Buckeyes Rule the CFP Championship Winner Market
The latest CFP rankings look a lot like the CFP Championship Winner market at Kalshi with #1 Ohio State (38%), #2 Indiana (15%), #3 Georgia (12%), and #4 Texas Tech (#7) occupying four of the top five spots with #5 Oregon (#8) the traders fourth most popular contract on Thursday.
Following, in trading order are Notre Dame (7%), Alabama (7%), Texas A&M (6%), now Lane Kiffin-less Ole Miss (3%), and Oklahoma (3%).
Trading Thoughts: This market is a process of elimination with three likely having a shot at being champs. Oregon is just too beat up and Georgia’s offense doesn’t seem quality enough to hang with Ohio State, Indiana, or Texas Tech, probably the biggest surprise this season.
The Red Raiders rank #3 in the nation in Scoring Offense (43.2 PPG) and Scoring Defense (11.1 PPG) and this team looks like it could hang with the Hoosiers, but beating defensive monsters Ohio State (7.8 PPG) seems like a large ask. And TT would have to get to that game as well.
The Buckeyes are the team to beat with (for now) Heisman Trophy favorite QB Julian Sayin, RBs Bo Jackson (952 rushing yards), and CJ Donaldson (10 TD), WRs Jeremiah Smith (10 TD) and Carnell Tate (8 TD) and a solid Offense (37.0 PPG, #13) as well. Trading Pick: Ohio State (Yes 38¢)
Heisman Trophy Winner Evolves Into a Three QB Race?
We’ve looked at the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner race market in the first-ever TPR issue and the #1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in the November 28, 2025 issue, so let’s revisit the Heisman Trophy Winner market where three main candidates have emerged with the Regular Season now over.
The current favorite for traders at Kalshi is Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (36%) who has the #1 Buckeyes looking for a second straight FBS championship. Sayin has thrown for 3,065 yards with 30 TD and 5 interceptions with a 81.4 QBR for Ohio State,
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (34%), the leader of the #2-ranked Hoosiers who will face #1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game this Saturday at Lucas Oil Field Stadium in Indianapolis (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST). The loser of this weekend’s game will have his chances likely hurt.
Mendoza has thrown for 2,758 yards with 32 TD and 5 interceptions and has an 88.3 QBR, and like the other two leading candidates, has his undefeated team in a position where they can make a run at a national title. But standing in IU’s way is another unbeaten with a Heisman candidate.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia (29%) is also seeing “Yes” contracts being bought and he has the #7 Commodores are in the midst of their best season to date, throwing for 3,192 Yards, 27 TD and 8 interceptions with a 87.8 QBR.
Trading Thoughts: The winner of this award, won by Colorado’s Travis Hunter last year, is chosen by 870 journalists—in six different regions—57 past Heisman winners, and one fan vote for a total of 929 ballots.
So regional bias could definitely end being a factor and the two Big Ten QB’s Mendoza and Sayin may see some of their voting canceling each other out, a potentially good thing for Pavia who plays in the SEC and could get a good chunk of the South and Mid Atlantic region’s votes.
Voters rank their top three choices with first-place getting 3 points, second-place 2 points, and third-place 1 point. Heisman ballots were distributed December 1 and the deadline is Monday, December 8 at 5 pm EST. The voting is tabulated by the accounting firm Deloitte.
Conference USA Championship Game Preview: Friday
The 2025 Conference USA Championship Game will see QB Caden Creel and Jacksonville State (8-4, 7-1 C-USA) hosting QB Amari Odom and Kennesaw State (9-3, 7-1 C-USA) at AmFirst Stadium (ProGrass) in Jacksonville, Alabama on Friday night (CBSSN, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST).
Jacksonville State won the 2024 Conference USA Championship game, trouncing Western Kentucky, 52-12 in Alabama as RB Tre Stewart rushed for 201 yards and 3 TDs in the romp. Stopping Jaguars RB Cam Cook (1,588 rushing yards, 15 TD) will be the Owls big task here.
When these two teams met in the Regular Season on November 15, Jacksonville State won 35-26 in a game they led by 20 in the fourth quarter before the Owls hooted for 13 straight points. Still, the visitors didn’t cover ATS (+3.5) in a game which went Over the closing number of 55.5.
College Football traders at Kalshi are predicting Kennesaw State wins this one outright (55%) with underdogs Jacksonville State (45%). The Owls winning by over 2.5 points was trading at 52% (Yes 56¢, No 45¢) with the Over 60.5 points scored at 48% (Yes 45¢, No 56¢).
Trading Thoughts: Jacksonville State has scored in the last nine straight quarters or OT periods vs Kennesaw State and the teams 3-3 lifetime vs each other with Kennesaw state winning the first three meetings (2017-2021) and Jacksonville State taking these last three (2022-2025)
The Jaguars scored 123 points in those three wins in games that ended with 61, 87, and 63 points. The thought here is with the home team able to rush and score and the visitors able to pass and score, each may tally 30 in a shootout in The Gem of The Hills. Trading Pick: Over 60.5 (Yes 49¢)
Sun Belt Championship Game Preview: Friday
The 2025 Sun Belt Championship Game will see upstart East Division winners James Madison (11-1, 8-0 Sun Belt) welcoming West Division champions Troy (8-4, 6-2 C-USA) to Bridgeforth Stadium (FieldTurf) in Harrisonburg, Virginia on Friday night (ESPN, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST).
QB Alonza Barrett III (2,440 passing yards, 20 TD) and the Dukes will come here on a 10-game win streak and James Madison and Tulane (AAC) are probably the two best football teams not in one of the Power Four conferences but it seems only the Green Wave have a shot at making the CFP.
Kalshi traders have “Yes” contracts on James Madison (93%) with no interest in Troy (7%) which seems like a bonding opportunity before kickoff? The Dukes winning by over 23.5 points was trading at 51% (Yes 51¢, No 50¢) with the Over 48.5 points scored at 49% (Yes 49¢, No 53¢).
If you ever wondered why all prediction market numbers in football end with a ‘.5,’ it’s so there is never an outcome where both sides have no “Yes-No” result in the end, and thus a wasted trading market where everyone pushed (tied) the outcome and got their investment back.
Trading Thoughts: James Madison is juggernaut with the Dukes ranking #10 in the FBS in Points For (37.8) and Points Against (16.0), with RB Wayne Knight (1,081 yards, 8 TD), QB Barrett III (459 yards, 13 TD), and RB Jordan Fuller (418 yards, 5 TD) at #6 in Rushing yards per game (239.8).
These two haven’t played much and split their two meetings but the two biggest things about this one is that James Madison is the superior team and it’s on their homefield, The Dog House where the Dukes have won 10 straight and 29 of the last 30. Trading Pick: James Madison -23.5 (Yes 51¢)
AAC Championship Game Preview: Friday
The 2025 American Athletic Conference Championship Game features #24 CFP-ranked Tulane (10-2, 7-1 AAC) playing host to North Texas (11-1, 7-1 AAC) at Yulman Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf) in New Orleans, Louisiana on Friday night (ABC, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
QB Drew Mestemaker (3,835 passing yards, 29 TD) and the Mean Green come here on a 6-game win streak while QB Jake Retzlaff (2,717 passing yards, 14 TD) and the Green Wave are on a 4-game run and are the highest-ranked Group of 5 team with a CFP shot, so this game is massive.
Can Tulane really make the 12-team field? We’ll see—ESPN gives them a 32% chance—but a loss here and we won’t see any Group of 5 schools making the Big Dance on the gridiron and the analytics, sportsbooks, and prediction markets all have the visitors winning this one.
The wisdom of the NCAAF crowds at Kalshi sees North Texas (55%) the likely winner in the Big Easy with host Tulane (45%) getting respect from traders. The Mean Green winning by over 2.5 points was at 51% (Yes 53¢, No 49¢) with the Over 67.5 points scored at 49% (Yes 50¢, No 51¢).
The ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor had North Texas (58.0%) over Tulane (42.0%) on Sunday.
Trading Thoughts: Trying to make green when the Green Wave play the Mean Green? RB Caleb Hawkins (1,216 rushing yards), WR Wyatt Young (1,203 receiving yards) and NT are #1 in FBS in Scoring (42.8 PPG) and Tulane relies too much on Retzlaff. Trading Pick: North Texas -2.5 (Yes 53¢)
MWC Championship Game Preview: Friday
The 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game sees QB Maddix Madsen and Boise State (8-4, 6-2 MWC) hosting UNLV (10-2, 6-2 MWC) at Albertsons Stadium (Blue FieldTurf) in Boise, Idaho on Friday night (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
The Broncos have always had the Rebels number, with Boise State winning all 9 series meetings including a 56-31 rout this season in the City of Trees as Madsen threw for 4 TDs and RB Dylan Riley ran for a career-high 201 yards with BSU scoring in every quarter and covering ATS (-13.5).
Kalshi sees Boise State (65%) the choice of the traders in the Game Winner market with UNLV (35%) getting some love from traders despite QB Anthony Colandrea and the Rebels having never beat BSU, this being a huge game, and being played on the friendly confines of the Smurf Turf.
The Broncos winning by over 3.5 points was at 52% (Yes 54¢, No 48¢) with the Over 57.5 points scored at 55% (Yes 55¢, No 48¢) in this MWC Championship Game Boise will be playing in their own Private Idaho and the Northwest state that puts the potatoes on our plates. Thank you.
Trading Thoughts: This one’s simple. Am I missing something? One team has never lost to the other, is at home, and has the expectations of making it 10 straight vs UNLV. The number here is so low that backing the bucking Broncos is the only trade. Trading Pick: Boise State to win (Yes 65¢)
Big 12 Championship Game Preview: Saturday
The 2025 Big 12 Conference Championship Game will see CFP-ranked #4 Texas Tech (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) colliding with #11 BYU (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) at AT&T Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top) in Arlington, Texas on Saturday morning (ABC, 12 EST/11 CST/9 PST).
QB Behren Morton (2,428 passing yards, 29 TD) and the Red Raiders come in on a high, having won 5 in a row after winning 6 straight to start the season. The Cougars are also rolling with QB Bear Bachmeier (2,593 passing yards, 14 TD) and BYU coming in on a 3-game winning streak.
Who is the only team BYU has lost to? It was this Texas Tech side at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock where the Red Raiders shined, allowing the Cougars just 7 points in a 29-7 win in a clash that saw BYU have 3 TOs and TT none. You can’t give the ball away.
Kalshi traders love Texas Tech (82%) over BYU (18%) with the Red Raiders winning by over 13.5 points was at 47% (Yes 47¢, No 54¢) with the Over 50.5 points scored at 49% (Yes 49¢, No 52¢).
Trading Thoughts: TT needs this game to stay in the hunt for a First Round CFP bye and a home game and the Red Raiders defense has been superb (11.1 PPG, #3) as has the offense (43.2 PPG, #3) and this is the best team we have ever seen wear pads at this football-happy institution.
With RB Cameron Dickey (1,023 rushing yards, 13 TD) and four great WRs, BYU will have its work cut out for them trying to stop the hosts from scoring while possibly having trouble putting points on the scoreboard as they did the first time in the Lone Star State. Trading Pick: None
“If you wish to get rich, save what you get. A fool can earn money; but it takes a wise man to save and dispose of it to his own advantage.” —Brigham Young
Mid-American Conference Championship Game: Saturday
The 2025 Mid-American Conference Championship Game sees Western Michigan (8-4, 7-1 MAC) facing Miami (OH) (7-5, 6-2 MAC) at Ford Field (FieldTurf) in Detroit, Michigan on Saturday (ESPN, 12 EST/11 CST/9 PST) in a rematch of a game the RedHawks won 26-17 this season.
Two-way threat QB Broc Lowry (1,572 passing yards, 7 TD; 875 rushing yards, 14 TD) and WM have won 4 straight after the Miami loss. Thomas Gotkowski and the RedHawks head to Motown on a 2-game streak. QB Dequan Finn left Miami mid-season, paving the way for frosh Gotkowski.
Kalshi traders are behind Western Michigan (56%) over Miami (44%) with the Broncos winning by over 2.5 points at 50% (Yes 51¢, No 50¢) and the Over 42.5 points scored at 53% (Yes 54¢, No 47¢) in the Sports category on the popular prediction market despite this being an indoor game.
Trading Thoughts: In the last 10 series meetings, we see that Western Michigan won 8 straight before Miami (OH) won the last 2—and outgained WM the last 5—including this year at home in Oxford, Ohio and The Cradle of Coaches, 26-17. Not all games offer an edge. Trading Pick: None
Southeastern Conference Championship Game: Saturday
The 2025 Southeastern Conference Championship Game is a classic showdown and sees CFP-ranked #3 Georgia (11-1, 7-1 SEC) facing #10 Alabama (10-2, 7-1 SEC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Atlanta, Georgia on Saturday afternoon (ABC, 4 EST/3 CST/1 PST).
QB Ty Simpson (3,056 passing yards, 25 TD) and the Crimson Tide have won 2 in a row after Oklahoma burst their bubble while QB Gunner Stockton (2,535 passing yards, 20 TD) and the Bulldogs have won 8 straight after losing to this Bama side, 24-21 at home in Sanford Stadium.
In the lifetime series between these two NCAAF icons, Alabama is 45-26-4 over Georgia with the Crimson Tide somehow rolling to victory in 9 of the last 10 meetings despite Georgia pretty much being at the elite level all of those seasons (2012-2025).
But College Football traders at Kalshi are still backing Georgia (55%) over Alabama (45%) with the Bulldogs winning by over 2.5 points at 51% (Yes 51¢, No 50¢) and the Over 47.5 points scored at 53% (Yes 53¢, No 49¢) in the Peach State.
Trading Thoughts: Alabama has three good WRs (Bernard, Williams, Horton) averaging 12.3+ YPC and have been dominant vs Team Uga but the head says Georgia is playing better football than Bama and is very close to home in this must-see game. Trading Pick: Georgia to win (Yes 56¢)
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game: Saturday
The 2025 Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game will see CFP-ranked #21 Virginia (10-2, 7-1 ACC) playing Duke (7-5, 6-2 ACC) at Bank of America Stadium (FieldTurf Vertex CORE) in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday night (ABC, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
QB Chandler Morris (2,586 passing yards, 14 TD) and the Cavaliers have won 2 straight games including one over the Blue Devils at Durham (34-17). Duke won its last 2 games and squeezed into this game much to the disappointment of teams like Miami (FLA), SMU, and Georgia Tech.
Lifetime, Virginia is 42-34 against Duke and Thomas Jefferson University has won 9 of the last 10 meetings with the Blue Devils not being the greatest football program over the last 50 or so years.
Kalshi NCAAF traders are buying Virginia (61%) over Duke (39%) with the Cavs winning by over 3.5 points at 50% (Yes 52¢, No 50¢) and the Over 57.5 points scored at 51% (Yes 52¢, No 59¢)
Trading Thoughts: When these two played last month in the Tar Heel State, Virginia scored in every quarter, outgained the Blue Devils by 285 yards (540-255), and had 22 First Downs to Duke’s 11. Always best to just keep it simple Susie. Trading Pick: Virginia to win (Yes 64¢)
Big Ten Championship Game Preview: Saturday
The 2025 Big Ten Conference Championship Game is the best game of the weekend and will see CFP-ranked #1 Ohio State (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) meeting #2 Indiana (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) at Lucas Oil Field (Hellas Matrix Turf) in Indianapolis, Indiana on Saturday night (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
Heisman Trophy favorite QB Fernando Mendoza (2,758 passing yards, 32 TD) and the Hoosiers Tide have won all 12 games this year after going 11-2 in Head Coach Curt Cignetti’s first year in Bloomington. The last time that Ohio State (W16) lost, Joe Biden was the US president.
The Buckeyes have always owned Indiana, back to the days when the Big Ten only had its 10 founding Midwest schools with Ohio State going 81-12-5 lifetime vs Indiana and being winning the last 30 meetings with IU’s last win coming back in 1988 when Ronald Reagan was president.
At Kalshi, traders are strongly backing defending national champions Ohio State (64%) over Indiana (34%) with the Buckeyes winning by over 3.5 points at 54% (Yes 54¢, No 57¢) and the Over 46.5 points scored at 56% (Yes 55¢, No 47¢).
Trading Thoughts: When these two played last season, Head Coach Ryan Day and Ohio State rolled 38-15 at The Big House at home in Columbus and no one can score on this team (7.8 PPG) and no school has reached 17 points this year. Rust never sleeps.
Also worth noting, QB Julian Sayin, RB Bo Jackson, WR Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes are the second-best team FBS team ATS (10-1-1)—Texas Tech is 11-0-0—and Ohio State is an amazing and profitable 14-1-1 ATS since the start of the 2024 CFP. Trading Pick: Ohio State -3.5 (Yes 54¢)