Swift Favorite Over Adele in NFL Championship Halftime Act
Who Will Headline the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show? has been a very heavily traded market on Kalshi this past week with Taylor Swift retaking the top spot over Adele in this popular trading proposition on the Yes-No prediction platform.
Adele went from 12% (Yes 9¢, No 93¢) on Wednesday to 45% (Yes 44¢, No 60¢) on Sunday but was back to 31% (Yes 31¢, No 73¢) by Monday morning. This comes on the heels of speculation last week that Miley Cyrus might be the halftime act at Super Bowl LX after the post of a fake ad.
The fake ad, created by one of her fans on X, formerly known as Twitter, showed a pair of shiny white veneers—something the 32-year-old singer is known for—but also had the wrong (LVII) Super Bowl number. Cyrus has already done music at other Super Bowl events (2021, 2022).
Cyrus (16%, Yes 16¢, No 88¢) is a California resident (Malibu) and has the stage presence and energy to put on a great show. For now it looks like traders in this market are anticipating a female solo act with the top three all women.
Post Malone (13%, Yes 13¢, No 91¢) followed by Dua Lipa (8%), Jay-Z (7%), Metallica (7%), Bad Bunny (6%), and Lil Wayne (4%). Metallica is also a California band (Los Angeles), but James Hetfield has said publicly he thinks the metal legends aren’t a good fit for the NFL halftime show.
Super Bowl
Swift and Metallica seem like the type of artists with a large number of hits with Adele seeming like a bad fit for the NFL and its fans and Cyrus also not being an ideal match. Swift’s fiancé Travis Kelce plays for the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that’s made the Super Bowl three straight seasons.
The halftime performer for the NFL Championship Game is historically announced by the NFL, along with partners Apple Music and Roc Nation, in late September. Kendrick Lamar was last year’s halftime performer.
This year’s NFL Championship Game between the AFC and NFC champions will be held on Sunday, February 8, 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (NBC, Peacock, NFL+).
Jimmy Kimmel Live! Gone For Now, But When Will it Return?
The big news last Wednesday was that Jimmy Kimmel Live! was taken off the air "indefinitely” in the wake of the late night talk show host’s comments about the suspected killer of Charlie Kirk.
No sooner than the news of Kimmel’s suspension surprising so many, Kalshi, now the world’s largest predictive marketplace, opened the market When Will A New Episode of 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' Be Released? with four options available for traders.
Jimmy Kimmel LIVE
A quick return, Before Oct. 1, 2025, is priced at 20% (Yes 21¢, No 81¢), but that seems like dead money with the news just coming down on September 17 and the word “indefinitely” used. The show returning Before Nov. 1, 2025 was currently trading at 56% (Yes 57¢, No 50¢) on Monday.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! returning back to the airwaves Before Dec. 1, 2025 (64%, Yes 71¢, No 36¢), looks like the logical timeframe and this market rose 14% last Wednesday to Friday. A return Before Jan. 1, 2026 (68%, Yes 71¢, No 32¢) seems late and drastic, but resolution may take time.
Who knows when a new episode of JKL will air and it will likely come down to when the FCC says it’s alright to return and how much Kimmel's ego will be hurt. The Brooklyn native has hinted he may leave the show in late 2026 when his current contract expires.
On Friday, a source for ABC said it wants the 57-year-old Kimmel to come back, “But he has to take down the temperature.” Kalshi traders seem to think Kimmel will be back by the new year.
US Government Shutdown Looming on October 1, 2025?
On Friday, the US House of Representatives passed a stopgap short-term funding bill ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline to avert a government shutdown, but Democrats in the Senate rejected the GOP proposal to keep money flowing through Nov. 21 meaning a shutdown is still a possibility.
What happens next remains to be seen but the Kalshi Government Shutdown on October 1, 2025? market went up from 47% to 64% (and as high as 66%) for a potential shutdown from Friday to Sunday after the Senate voted on Friday. On Monday it was still at 64% (Yes 66¢, No 36¢).
The only one close to Koizumi in the Polymarket listings for Next Japanese Prime Minister was Sanae Takaichi (30%, Yes 31¢, No 72¢), so this appears to be a two-horse race. The winner will be Japan's fourth PM in the last five years.
Following, but all with less than 2% in the world’s largest prediction market, were candidates like Yoshimasa Hayashi (2%), Toshimitsu Motegi (1%), former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, Taro Kono, former Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa, and Yuchiro Tamaki.
When Will a TikTok Sale be Announced and Who Will Buy It?
TikTok still remains in limbo in the US with President Donald Trump recently extending another deadline for the sale of the popular social media app a week ago to December 16, saying he reached a “deal” with Chinese officials on the matter to sell to American investors.
A law called the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act was signed into law in the United States on April 24, 2024 and had initially required ByteDance to sell its US operations or face a ban.
With TikTok’s future likely to be cleared up by 2026, Polymarket offers two predictive trading markets related to this, TikTok Sale Announced By...? and Who Will Acquire TikTok? The comments by Trump that a “deal” was in the works can be read many ways.
A TikTok sale being announced quickly and by September 30 was given a 24% chance (Yes 25¢, No 78¢) by traders at Polymarket early Monday (Sept. 22) with a sale before October 31 at 51% (Yes 52¢, No 50¢) suddenly a buy in Yes contract buyers’ eyes.
Why the jump? Because on Saturday, the White House announced the two countries were closer to a deal, and one that would see six of the company’s seven board seats held by Americans.
TikTok being sold by December 31 still has the most traction with a 76% chance (Yes 76¢, No 25¢), and it seems this issue, the app, and a potential sale is finally getting resolved with an American investor becoming the new owner. Expect this to get done by the new year.
For now, Larry Ellison and Oracle are the clear front-runners to buy TikTok with an 86% chance (Yes 86¢, No 15¢)—up 22% since Friday—with six others given much less of a chance in Microsoft (6%), Elon Musk/X (4%), AppLovin (4%), Meta, (4%), Amazon (2%), and and Walmart (1%).
TikTok has around 1.58 billion active users worldwide according to sources.
Nvidia Seeing No Competition for the World’s Largest Company
Polymarket serves up a (Who Will be the World’s) Largest Company at the End of September? trading market and it’s as lopsided as one would expect it to be with chip-maker Nvidia garnering 99% of the outcome contracts as of September 21 with no other company even topping 1%.
Microsoft ($3.8 trillion), Apple ($3.5 trillion), Alphabet (Google, $3.1 trillion), and Amazon ($2.5 trillion) will likely round out the top five companies by market capitalization, but at a reported $4.25 trillion, the tech giant is the new No. 1 thanks to chip demand and the development of AI.
Microsoft ($3.8 trillion), Apple ($3.5 trillion), Alphabet (Google, $3.1 trillion), and Amazon ($2.5 trillion)
Nvidia was co-founded in Sunnyvale, California in 1993 by three men including current President and CEO Jensen Huang and has its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California, the home of the 2026 Super Bowl.
Nvidia Double beat
Will Bitcoin Hit $125K by Halloween? Thanksgiving? Christmas?
Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its steady march upward this Summer, reaching an all-time high of $124,000 on August 14, 2025 before falling below $118,000 after a poor Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Early Monday, BTC was trading at $112,788.04.
For the year 2025, BTC has gone from $94,612 at open on January 1 to this current level for a number of reasons including the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US and the move by the Trump administration ordering an executive order for the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Bullish investors pushing Gold, the NYSE’s DJIA (September 11 all-time high) and the NASDAQ (Friday all-time high) to record levels have also helped push Bitcoin back near the $120,000 mark. But when will it top $120k again? And when will it set a new record and pass $125,000?
Bullish investors pushing Gold, the NYSE’s DJIA
Kalshi has a predictive market for this eventual crypto reality with When Will Bitcoin Hit $125k? Bitcoin hitting $125,000 Before Nov. 2025 is 37% (Yes 39¢, No 63¢) , making it Before Dec. 2025 is 57% (Yes 58¢, No 44¢) while BTC hitting 125k Before Jan. 2026 is 62% (Yes 66¢, No 39¢).
Like all new BTC levels, this one isn’t a matter of if, but simply a matter of when. One thing Bitcoin holders know for sure is that this volatile currency can and will jump.
Will Ethereum Hit a New All-Time High by September 30, 2025?
While Bitcoin continues to push new highs, Ether (ETH) has also rewarded its investors, although Ether has had a bad five days (-6.94%) and was trading at $4,180.21 as of 12:17 pm ET on Monday.
Still, Ether was up a healthy 75.3% over the last year and may be poised for another bullish run this week. In the Will Ethereum Hit an All-Time High by September 30? outcome at Polymarket, traders are backing the No, with a 4% chance at an all-time high as of Monday (Yes 5¢, No 97.6¢).
What is the all-time high for Ether? On August 24, 2025, Ether (+25.07 YTD) hit its all-time high price of approximately $4,953.73, topping its previous record set back in 2021.
The resolution source for this crypto market is Binance and you can find current ETH prices using the “1m” and “Candles” options on the top bar. Ether is the cryptocurrency of the general purpose blockchain Ethereum.
NCAAF Heisman Trophy Market Still Completely Wide Open
With early favorites like Texas QB Arch Manning (5%) and Clemson QB Cade Klubnik seemingly gone from the Heisman Trophy Winner race due to their performances the first three weeks, some other college football QBs have slid into the predictive market picture.
After being deadlocked with 12% each heading into NCAAF Week 4 play, Oklahoma QB John Mateer (15%, Yes 15¢, No 90¢) surged ahead of Georgia QB Carson Beck (10%, Yes 11¢, No 93¢) for the the top spot in the Kalshi trading market.
Mateer was impressive in a 24-17 Sooners win over then-No. 22 Auburn on Saturday with Mateer rushing for the winning TD with 4:54 left from nine yards out for No. 11 Oklahoma (4-0) in Norman, Oklahoma as the Heisman candidate was 24-for-36 for 271 yards and a TD.
Beck and the No. 5 Bulldogs (3-0) were idle this past weekend and will host No. 14 Alabama in a huge SEC clash on Saturday night (ABC, 7:30 pm EDT). Mateer and Oklahoma will be idle this weekend and host Kent State (1-3) on Saturday, October 4 (SECN, 4 EDT).
The first College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings should be released in about a month.
Friday
Friday
Saturday
Saturday
Jumping into the second spot was Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (10%), launching himself into the picture after a 21-for-23 for 267 yards and 5 TD performance for the No. 19 Hoosiers in a 63-10 blowout of No. 9 Illinois in Bloomington, Indiana.
Oregon QB Dante Moore (9%) was the traders third choice, tied with Beck early on Monday. Mateer, Mendoza, Beck, and Moore are all on undefeated Power conference teams who are on track to make the 2025 CFP Playoffs.
The Heisman Trophy winner will be unveiled at the 2025 Heisman Trophy Ceremony on Saturday, December 13 at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York (ESPN, 8 EST/5 PST). Colorado’s Travis Hunter (2% to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year) won the 2024 Heisman Trophy.
The Heisman Trophy is determined annually by a vote of 870 media members, 57 former Heisman Trophy winners, and one fan vote. Heisman ballots will go out on December 1 with the voting deadline and the five Heisman Trophy finalists announced on December 8.
NFL Week 4 Sees Cardinals Hosting Seahawks on Thursday
The 2025 NFL Regular Season continues with two NFC West teams locking horns in the first game of NFL Week 4 kicking off in the Sonora Desert with the Cardinals hosting the Seahawks at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Thursday night (Prime Video, 8:15 pm EDT/5:15 pm PDT).
Polymarket traders have Kyler Murray and host Arizona currently trading at 53¢ to win this game with Seattle at 50¢. The Cardinals are -1.5 favorites at major sportsbooks with the Total at 43.5.
Last season, the Seahawks (2-1-0) sent the Cardinals (2-1-0) winning season into a losing one, sweeping Arizona with wins at Seattle in Week 12 (16-6) and at Glendale in Week 14 (30-18). Is taking a chance on the underdog Seahawks to win again worth a shot for predictive traders?
It seems so as Seattle has won seven straight games against Arizona with the Cardinals last victory over the Seahawks coming in the Emerald City back in Week 11 of the 2021 NFL Regular Season.
NFL
UEFA Champions League Group Phase Play Resumes Next Tuesday
Group Phase play in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League resumes next week with Matchday 2 and nine matches scheduled for Tuesday, September 30 including the English Premier League side Chelsea welcoming Primeira League club Benfica to West London and Stamford Bridge.
Traders at Kalshi give Cole Palmer and the host Blues a 66% chance of winning next week with underdogs Benfica trading at 16% to win with a Draw at 19%.
Polymarket had Chelsea at a 6% chance to win the UEFA Champions League (Yes 6¢, No 95¢) behind tournament favorites Liverpool (16%), Barcelona (15%), rivals Arsenal (13%), defending champions PSG (12%), Real Madrid (10%), Bayern Munich (8%), and Manchester City (8%).
Champions league
Chelsea (0-0-1) lost its opening Group Phase match at Bayern Munich last week on Matchday 1 while Benfica (0-0-1) was upset by Azerbaijan Premier League club Qarabağ in Lisbon with both allowing three goals. The Chelsea-Benfica match will air on Paramount+ in the US (3 pm EDT).
Traders Not Seeing a Mount Spurr Volcanic Eruption in Near Future
Kalshi is offering up a fun futures contract in its Climate subdivision, with traders able to buy whether or not When Will Mount Spurr Erupt? with Before October 2025 (Yes 4¢, No 99¢) trading at just 1% as of September 20 and Before November 2025 at 12% (Yes 11¢, No 99¢).
Where is Mount Spurr? It’s located on the Aleutian Arc in Alaska at the middle of a 3.1-mile wide caldera and is 81 miles west of Anchorage. The last time the Crater Peak vent of this ice-covered stratovolcano erupted was back in 1992 when it erupted in June, August, and September.
Mount Spurr in Alaska
But the volcano in the Glen Alps has recently gone through some periods of increased seismicity both from 2004-2006 and most recently in February 2024 with the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) increasing their monitoring of Mount Spurr.
You can see a Mount Spurr Livestream here from a station located 8 miles south of the volcano.
Polymarket Trader Turns $38 Into $20,500 in Mentions Market
Polymarket saw some interesting twists and turns in the Will Trump Say “Hottest” During Events with UK Prime Minister on September 18? Market on Friday when the US Commander in Chief met with UK PM Keir Starmer in a joint press conference at Chequers in Ellesborough, England.
In the Mentions market at Polymarket, the platform offered trading with the rules confining what Trump said in the bilateral meeting and the press conference. Closed to the press, the bilateral meeting started at 6:15 am, meaning only what was heard in the press conference would count.
But according to @GreekGamblerPM on X, confused Polymarket traders thought that the Business Leaders Reception, which started at 7:45 am, would also count.
During that reception, Trump said the word “hottest” and traders jumped in and bought the contracts up to 99.9%, assuming it hit. Polymarket clarified that the event would not count in the resolution of the market
Polymarket Trader Turns $38 Into $20,500 in Mentions Market
During that reception, Trump said the word “hottest” and traders jumped in and bought the contracts up to 99.9%, assuming it hit. Polymarket clarified that the event would not count in the resolution of the market
That clarification meant that the odds plummeted from 99.9% straight down to 0% since in the actual press conference, which was held later, Trump never said “hottest.” But one clever trader on Polymarket named ‘BriefingRoomRat’ bought $38.03 of No contracts when the Yes was at 96¢, turning it into a cool $20,050 when Trump didn’t say the word in his presser with Starmer.
Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.