We all know how much President Trump loves current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, so it will likely be a pleasure for the president to nominate a new head of the independent Fed as he can’t fire Powell and Powell has said that he will serve until the end of his term in May of 2026.
Powell has served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since May 25, 2012 and was sworn in as Chair for a first time on February 5, 2018 and then for a second time on May 23, 2022.
So who was the guy who first nominated Powell for this position on November 2, 2017? None other than Donald Trump. The irony.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Traders in the Kalshi Who Will Trump Nominate as Fed Chair? offering are trading on National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to be Trump’s nominee at 57%, followed by Fed Governor Christopher Waller (19%) and Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (15%).
Also in the running in this market are US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (5%), Fed Governor Stephen Mirran (4%), the Chief Investment Officer at Global Fixed Income at Blackrock Rick Rieder (3%)and Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Michelle Bowman (2%).
Trump has said he has already made his choice but has not yet officially announced who it is.
Thoughts: The favorite in this market is Hassett, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be the choice by the president and there is still plenty of time left in this market which has an impressive volume of $3,606,421 on November 26.
But because now presumed favorite Bessent is so bullish on sharp rate cuts and that’s Trump’s song and dance and his big complaint against current Fed head Powell, backing Hassett “Yes” contracts at 55¢ seems like the logical trading approach.
Will the Federal Reserve Cut by 25bps in December?
One big key in trying to attain long-term profitability in prediction markets, investing, and sports gambling is to always strive to get the best possible numbers when buying. Some markets may appear boring, or all be about numbers, but there is money to be made in markets of every kind.
Although as boring as toast without butter, the Will the Fed Cut by 25bps in December? prediction market in the Economy library at Myriad Markets may be offering one of those chances to get the best possible number now with the “Yes” trading at 84.9% (up No 15.1%).
Will the FED cut by 25bps in December?
The Federal Reserve has already cut its key interest rate by 25bps (0.25%) in September and October to bring it to the target range of 3.75%-4% and most analysts are expecting another 25bps rate from the next Federal Reserve two-day meeting on December 9-10, 2025.
It will be the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for 2025. The first meeting of the coming new year is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026.
Trading thoughts: The Fed has been relatively predictable this year in its rate cuts, and unless things in the economy really fall apart here from November 27 to December 8, buying “Yes” contracts now seems wisest. This market closes on December 10 at 1 pm EST.
One Polymarket Trader Big on the US Striking Venezuela
A respected trader on Polymarket and a good follow on X (Twitter) is CarOnPolymarket and he tweeted earlier this week about a new account on the prediction market trader who opened up two separate accounts and has over $200,000 on the United States striking Venezuela in 2025.
The two accounts are alexbar and MGGA.FAN and he has four positions on the US and Venezuelan military engaging or President Maduro being out this year.
The US x Venezuela Military Engagement by December 31 market went from 35% to 65% with no major breaking news and after Trump had said he was willing to talk to Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro about the US strikes on drug boats off the coast of the South American nation.
Trading thoughts: There always seems to be suspicious big trades on Polymarket and Kalshi and many are quick to assume it’s always insider information but that is a lazy way to try to figure out exactly why someone is trading so much on an individual market.
Should the US and Venezuela engage in military conflict this year, this trader will win $500,000.
But Car did some research and found out that MGGA.FAN stands for a random meme coin called Make Gains Great Again and proclaimed, “Another game of crypto degen or insider.”
Probably the former. The lesson to be learned here is beware of some suspicious and new large trading activity by new members of these prediction market platforms. The clock is ticking and it’s holiday season in the US and it’s hard to see Trump ordering a strike. “No” at 65¢ is a wiser trade.
Will Trump Talk to Maduro by December 31, 2025?
Traders at Polymarket in the Geopolitics library of the popular prediction market exchange in the Will Trump Talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? market is thinking US President Trump has a 43% chance of talking with Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, up a healthy 16%.
Why? Because Trump recently said he is willing to talk to Maduro and Trump has found the time to meet with so many leaders this Summer and Fall and is driven inside by wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize. This market has fluctuated from 16% (October 16) to 62% (November 24).
Will Trump talk to Nicolas Maduro by December 31?
Trading thoughts: The market bounced on Monday and if you think Trump and Maduro will “talk” by New Year’s Eve, now is the time to buy “Yes” contracts at 46¢. What does “talk” mean exactly?
The rules in this market stated that “A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.”
Good enough for me and easy enough for Trump to set up and arrange and a man who says he is obsessed with making peace should be more apt to talk in the next six weeks than not talk or engage in a larger military conflict in South America.
Kalshi Traders: No Major Album Releases in 2025
With Christmas coming, one would think many musical artists would be releasing new studio albums for their fans, but the Who Will Release an Album This Year? market at Kalshi tells a story and that story is that it looks like there could be no major releases this calendar year.
Why? Possibly fear of competing with the comet that is Taylor Swift, now sitting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200™ for a sixth straight week with The Life Of A Showgirl. So who can really blame the artists and record companies? No one wants to shovel snow in Alaska.
The major artists traders at Kalshi are giving the highest chance of releasing an album this year are Drake (29%), John Mayer (19%), Lil Uzi Vert (18%), A$AP Rocky (10%), J Cole (9%), LCD Soundsystem (9%), Beyoncé (8%), Frank Ocean (7%), Jay-Z (7%), and Jack Harlow (7%).
Even longer shots include Aphex Twin (6%), Nicki Minaj (5%) and Harry Styles (1%).
Traders have cashed in with “Yes” contracts in this market with the release of albums by Doja Cat, Travis Scott, Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper, Young Thug, Ed Sheeran, Miley Cyrus, Cardi B, Kanye West, Radiohead, Between The Buried And Me, and Lorde.
Trading thoughts: The only real way to approach this market—outside a blanket bed of “No” contracts—would be to do some research and look for release from one of the artists listed.
Although not confirmed, rumors of a late 2025 release of Drake’s upcoming album Iceman make grabbing some “Yes” contracts at 30¢ worth a shot while the calendar still reads November.
Will Drake’s Next Album Debut at No. 1 on Billboard 200?
While we are on the subject of Drake’s next album, Iceman, let’s look at the market Will Drake's Next Album Debut No.1 on Billboard 200? and speculate some. The chances of this debuting at No. 1 will depend on the actual release date and likely whether or not it can top Taylor Swift.
Drake’s last studio album was Some Sexy Songs 4 U (2025) and he has teased Iceman and released three singles already from the studio album, his ninth, in “What Did I Miss?,” “Which One,” and “Dog House.”
Will Drake’s next album debut No. 1 on Billboard 200?
Traders at Polymarket are giving Iceman a 38% (-26%) chance of debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200™, down 13% likely from traders realizing a release in the next five weeks may mean having to go head-to-head with Swift’s The Life Of A Showgirl on the charts. Good luck brother.
Trading thoughts: Like Eminem sang, “You only get one shot” to be No. 1 in this market, as it’s all about the debut week and not about the album reaching the top of the charts somewhere else down the line. The real question here is how long can The Life Of A Showgirl stay at No. 1?
Swift’s last studio album, The Tortured Poets Department, spent 12 straight weeks before being dethroned, so this is a matter of weighing when you think sales will start to wane and the timing of Drake’s Iceman release. The fast-moving calendar tells you to buy “No” at 63¢ while you still can.
Giannis, Bucks Dribble with Knicks at MSG on Friday Night
The NBA Cup resumes on Friday night with a great Eastern Conference matchup between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks (8-10, 3-4 Road) and Jalen Brunson and the Knicks (10-6, 8-1 at Home) lies down on Broadway at Madison Square Garden (Prime Video, 7:20 EST/4:30 PST).
NBA traders at Polymarket favor the Knickerbockers (73¢) over the Bucks (29¢) with the Point Spread at New York -6.5 points with the Total (points) trading at 222.5 (Over 90¢, Under 77¢) for this this NBA Cup Group C Play game from the Big Apple and the city so nice they named it twice.
Milwaukee at New York Trends and Thoughts: The Bucks have had the best of this series this decade, going 10-5 in 15 series meetings from 2021 to this season, with Milwaukee reeling off 9 straight wins before losing 5 straight and then winning the first meeting of this season, 126-110.
The Kicks will be without OG Anunoby (Hamstring), but with sparkplug, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, and Jordan Clarkson, NY can outscore the Greek Freak and the Bucks who had lost 4 straight games heading into a home date with Portland on Monday.
#1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft Market Really Heating Up
The 2025-26 NFL Regular Season is past the halfway point, and we can see which teams won’t be making the NFL Playoffs this Winter and which ones are likely already in some perennial rebuild mode as we see with the usual denizens around the pro football league. Stink, stank, stunk.
That means looking toward which team will get the #1 Overall Pick in 2026? in the NFL Draft as well as which player might be selected first. These are two great Yes-No outcomes for prediction markets as nobody knows the answer to either question. Let the speculation continue.
The teams with the worst records after NFL Week 12 were the Titans (1-10-0), Giants (2-10-0), Raiders (2-9-0), Saints (2-9-0), Jets (2-9-0), and Browns (3-8-0) so it’s anyone’s guess who will finish with the worst record and actually have the first pick. And that team could trade the pick.
Last year, Miami (Florida) QB Cam Ward was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and was selected by the Tennessee Titans in Round 1. The Titans may very well end up with the worst record in the NFL again and end up possessing this theoretically valuable draft choice.
Right now, traders at Kalshi think Indiana QB, and now the leading Heisman Trophy winner candidate, Fernando Mendoza (42%) is the traders top choice as the unbeaten and No. 2 Hoosiers (11-0) enjoy another wonderful season under Head Coach Curt Cignetti in Bloomington.
#1 overall pick in 2026?
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (30%) follows Mendoza in the market with Miami (Florida) DL Reuben Bain Jr. (20%), Colorado QB Kaidon Salter (14%), Miami (Florida) OT Francis Mauigoa (12%), Oregon QB Dante Moore (12%), and LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (8%) also seeing decent trading.
Two things to think about when trading in this NCAAF futures market: First, this one won’t be resolved until April. But in prediction markets, you can get out early and cut perceived losses if you want and you can also increase your position(s) with five months until the actual draft is held.
The second thing is that the aforementioned Titans could finish with the worst record and have the top pick again. But after drafting QB Ward last year, Tennessee doesn’t need a QB. That means the Titans could either choose another position player or trade that valuable potential No. 1 pick.
When and where is the 2026 NFL Draft? The next NFL Draft will be held from April 23-25, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Round 1 will be held on Thursday with Rounds 2-3 on Friday, and Rounds 4-7 on Saturday. There will be 267 players selected over seven rounds in The Steel City.
Texas, Texas A&M Meet in Lone Star Showdown on Friday
No. 17 Texas (8-3, 5-2 SEC) heads to DKR Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Austin to face No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0 SEC) in an SEC Week 13 game and Lone Star Showdown on Friday night (ABC, 7:30 EST/6:30 CST/4:30 PST).
QB Arch Manning and the Longhorns pounded Arkansas in Week 13 to keep their fading CFP hopes alive while the Aggies shut out Samford, 48-0 in a blowout which saw the Bulldogs end with just 46 passing yards, 31 rushing yards, and three first downs as A&M ended perfect at Kyle Field.
College Football traders at Kalshi are backing Texas A&M (54%) over old rivals Texas (46%) to win and stay unbeaten and likely stay in the top four schools in the next CFP rankings. The opening Point Spread was Texas A&M -2.5.
Texas A&M at Texas trading thoughts: Although the Longhorns are at home in Austin and are 10-3-0 in the last 13 meetings and have won the last two in the Lone Star Showdown, QB Marcel Reed and the Aggies are the best they’ve been in many years and have a shot at a national crown.
On the other hand, Texas, ranked No. 1 in several preseason polls with QB Manning the leading Heisman Trophy winner candidate before the season began, are just not as fluid offensively and will be put to the test by an A&M offense which ranks No. 10 in FBS in Total Scoring (38.1 PPG).
With the Texas A&M defense allowing 21.5 PPG (#35) and the Longhorns (77-37-5 lifetime vs Texas A&M) normally solid defense has allowed 20.0 PPG (Tied-#24) and so much at stake for both, looking at trading the Total Over seems like a good approach in what may be a shootout.
#1 Ohio State, #18 Michigan Renew Rivalry on Saturday
The Big Ten Conference used to have ten teams, now there are 18 and rivalries once seen in other conferences like USC-UCLA are now the Big Tens’. But there will always be one gridiron rivalry that defines the conference and that’s the annual Michigan vs Ohio State football rivalry game.
On Saturday, defending national champions and No. 1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) head to the Big House to face #18 Michigan (9-2, 7-1 in Big Ten) at Michigan Stadium (FieldTurf) in Ann Arbor, Michigan (FOX, 12 EST/11 CST/9PST).
Traders at Kalshi are strongly behind Ohio State (76%) with host Michigan (24%) big underdogs. The Point Spread sees the Buckeyes -10.5 points with the Total (Over/Under) points scored trading at 45.5 (Yes 48¢, No 54¢), down 2 points from 47.5.
Michigan/Ohio State
Ohio State at Michigan Stats and Trends for traders: Michigan leads the all-time series 62-51-6 and the Wolverines have won the last four in a row after losing eight straight to the Buckeyes (2012-2019), including last year in Columbus—the Buckeyes last loss (November 30, 2024).
Here, I would love to say just ride the trends and motion and massive homefield edge—Michigan Stadium is the largest in the US as well as the Western Hemisphere with a capacity of over 115,000—and say take a shot on the Wolverines who can ruin their rivals’ season.
But the head says, not this year. OSU HC Ryan Day will remind his team remembering what happened almost exactly a year ago to the day and with QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith and the best front four in FBS, the Buckeyes will stay unbeaten and cover the Point Spread.
Broncos Welcoming Commanders to Mile High For SNF
The Sunday Night Football desert for NFL Week 13 sees the Commanders (3-8, 2-3 Home) welcoming the Broncos (9-2, 3-2 Road) to Northwest Stadium (Bermuda Grass) in Landover, MD for an interconference game more important to the visitors, fighting for AFC Playoff positioning.
In Week 12, both Washington and Denver rested with the bye weeks. But all the rest in the world can’t help the Commanders whose injury list resembles The Walking Dead with guys like QB Jayden Daniels, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Luke McCaffrey, and RB Austin Ekeler all in street clothes.
NFL traders at Kalshi are strongly trading on the Broncos to win (72%) with the Commanders (28%) already looking toward next season with the ugly record and their starting QB sidelined. The Point Spread is Denver -6.5 with the Total trading at 44.5 points at Kalshi on Wednesday.
Sunday Night FOOTBALL
Courtesy NBC Sports
Denver at Washington Outcome trading tidbits: These two teams are as close as it gets lifetime with an 8-8-0 series record for both and the teams alternating wins and losses the last seven meetings (WDWDWDW) with home team 7-3-0 over that span (1992-2023).
If you gave the records of these teams headed into Week 13, you would be more apt to think Washington was the winning side looking toward the Postseason with Denver trailing the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West. Nope. Bo Nix finds ways to win and the defense is top-notch.
A problem trading in this game is that it doesn’t mean much to the hosts. And the narrative that Denver plays poorly in games kicking off in the Eastern Time Zone is just a myth (21-26-1). It is hard to find a good angle in this yawner NBC thought looked great on the schedule in August.
Streaking Patriots Hosting Giants on Monday Night Football
Drake Maye and the upstart Patriots (10-2-0) open the doors of Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts to the Giants (2-10-0) for this interconference Monday Night Football meeting only important to the visitors in terms of holding on to the best record in the AFC.
In Week 12, the Giants lost a thriller at home to the Lions for their sixth straight setback as the G-Men want to make time stop. You can trade on Who Will be the Giants Next Head Coach? as the team looks for a replacement after letting Brian Dabol go (Mike Kafka is the interim coach).
New England won its ninth straight, rallying to beat the Joe Burrow-less Bengals in Cincinnati.
Traders at Kalshi are strongly behind the AFC-leading Patriots (76%) in this contest, with only 24% behind the Giants. The Point Spread is New England -6.5 points with the Total (the Over) trading at 48.5 (Over Yes 51¢, No 52¢).
New England at New York Giants Trading Trends and Thoughts: Like the Broncos-Commanders lifetime series, the Patriots and the Giants are dead even, with both teams 7-7-0 Including that memorable Giants win loss when David Tyree pinned the ball to his head like a Helmet Houdini.
Looking at the last 10 meetings, we see that NE is 6-4-0 with the road team a surprising 8-3-0 over the last 11, although the home team has one the last two meetings (2019, 2023). Here are some other relevant trends if you are considering trading on this game on Monday night:
● The Giants are 6-1-0 ATS in last 7 series meetings
● New England has won 9 straight games
● New York has lost 6 straight games is 0-7-0 on Road
● Both Patriots losses were at Home (Raiders, Steelers)
● New England is 7-4-1 ATS, the Giants are 7-5-0 ATS
Thoughts on this is that it may be close for 20 minutes, and then Maye and the visitors explode in the second half to take a double-digit lead, motivated by their potential No. 1-seeding in the AFC and keeping intact their longest winning streak since 2011. Fear is always the best motivator.