Can we trade on how many presents a mythical jolly old man in a red-and-white jumpsuit will deliver this Christmas? Of course we can. These are Prediction Markets where traders can even trade on Prediction Markets and the temperatures on a given day in major cities.
In the ‘How Many Gifts Will Santa Deliver in 2025?’ market at Polymarket, traders can choose between 0.1 billion ranges from 7.9 to >8.4 billion for the big night, December 25.
The clear leader in this market is the 8.2-8.3B range (93%), where ‘Yes’ buyers now would only make 7¢ on every contract (Yes 93¢). Next are the 8.3-8.4B (4%), 8.1-8.2B (2%), and >8.4B (1%) levels, meaning you pretty much have three decisions as a potential trader.
The first would be to avoid the market completely. It is liquid ($1,178,681 volume), and getting in now in the 8.2-8.3B range seems too late to really profit much if resolved as a ‘Yes.’ Taking a chance at one of the 1% or 2% perceived “longshot” markets is the third option.
Trading Thoughts: Last year, the official NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) said that Santa Claus reportedly delivered more than 8.1 billion presents (8,186,671,107) with Rudloph and his red-nose leading the way through the chilly Winter air.
A year earlier in 2023, St Nick delivered 7.8 billion presents, so it seems logical upticks of around 0.2 to 0.3 billion a year makes sense as the total was 7.6 billion in 2022. No word on how many of those gifts were made in China. Anyway, taking a small risk to try to turn 4¢ into a dollar seems like the only real trade at this point in the holiday season. Trading Pick: 8.3-8.4B, Yes 4¢
Financial Times: PM’s Up an Insane 130x in Two Years
The Financial Times reported last week that prediction markets have gone from seeing $100 million a month in volume in 2024 to more than $13 billion a month in November of 2025 , according to a report from crypto firms Dune and Keyrock with companies like Polymarket and Kalshi offering event contracts on sports, police, pop culture, and other markets.
That translates to a 130x increase in a relatively short period of time and with giant Polymarket still trying to iron out the little things and be fully live for all that want it in the US, no one knows how big Prediction Markets can really end up being.
The report indicated that both Polymarket and Kalshi have equal market share with Polymarket traders more likely to invest in a number of categories while Kalshi traders are very heavy on sports. And with sports betting still illegal in many USA states, PMs are filling a void.
On Saturday, December 13, 2025, the top 20 markets traded on Kalshi were all sports, with game Winner (Moneyline) trades on NCAA Men’s College Basketball seeing $55.3 million in volume and NCAA Men’s College Basketball (Point) Spreads raking in another $2 million.
For some context, the amount wagered in Nevada in 2000 on the Super Bowl was $71,046.751.
Kalshi Combos Now Live For (Almost) Everyone
The people at Kalshi announced last week that ”Combos” were officially live for everyone on the trading platform with CEO Tarek Mosnour tweeting that the company did over $100 million in volume last week with the company hitting another daily volume record of $340 million.
Mansour tweeted, “In traditional financial markets, traders build multi-leg options instead of buying separately to get a better price. Combos offer the same price improvement.”
The words are nice, and seem to creatively skirt around the issue that these seem to be very much like the parlays we see in sports betting, with the possibility of combining sports, culture, business, politics, and whatever other markets Kalshi has into one “Combo.”
The sports guys go nuts on social media and scream “These are just parlays” and act like the world is coming to an end because their perception is that Prediction Markets are a form of gambling, and it’s hard to argue at times. In the end, we all have to work with what we have where we are.
“Like with other markets, there is no house: when you submit a Combo, traders compete in the open market to take the other side.” Mansour went on to say.
We will all see where it goes, but as a business decision it was the logical thing to do as creating some sense of entertainment or fun by having to get all ‘Yes-No’ outcomes correct to collect has always been part of parlays and spinning your wins in the first place.
Not calling them “parlays” isn’t the end of the world. If you are more comfortable sticking with betting parlays or trying “Combos” some day, fine. This semantics argument won’t end, but that doesn’t mean we have to have a stance on something so trivial and non-important in our busy lives.
Nevada Denies Kalshi a “Short-Term” Stay in Silver State
On Tuesday, December 16, the Ninth Circuit in Nevada and federal judge Andrew Gordon denied Kalshi’s request for a “short-term” stay to give the company time to seek a stay from the CA9 and without this stay, Kalshi could be exposed to civil and criminal enforcement in the Silver State.
So the battle with the state’s gaming regulator is really heating up and we can expect more appeals and more actions in the Ninth Circuit. Nevada was the state known for legalized sports gambling for decades and the lobbyists and casino industry probably won’t warm much to new competition.
Whether or not Prediction Markets and the trading within them is sports gambling is sort of a moot point now with online sportsbooks teaming with other companies to make their own products. The sad truth is that Nevada may never be “open” to competition. Time will tell.
For now, on December 17, 2025 in the Silver State, Kalshi was taken offline and Polymarket is still in the middle of its big relaunch and it is not live in Nevada. And both monster online sportsbooks, DraftKings and FanDuel are also both unavailable in Nevada. Why?
The two don’t have physical locations in the state where bettors must register, unlike the majority of states in the US where users can simply sign up right from the PCs or phones. So despite all of the progress in The Digital Age and evolution of PMs. residents of the state are shut out for now.
According to Kalshi, these are the nine states where Kalshi trading is currently (December 2025) not available for trading or new account creation:
Currently, 39 US states have legalized sports gambling after Missouri just came online on December 1. Worth noting, sports betting is legal in all none of the states listed, meaning that lobbyists and special interests may be trying to stop Kalshi in their specific states.
Will Russia Announce a Christmas Truce?
We would like to be as optimistic as possible here at The Prediction Report, but some markets seem too easy and this is most likely one of them, the ‘Will Russia Announce a Christmas Truce?’ offering at Polymarket where just 14% give a chance to such a Yes-No notion.
Seeing the words ‘Russia’ and ‘Truce’ in the context of Christmas is sort of comical, given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s track record of (non-) peace and never resolving anything or being willing to budge an inch on the Ukraine-Russia ear.
And the writing is on the wall if you look. Russia has already rejected a Christmas Truce laid out by Germany, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying this would.. “give Ukraine to rest and prepare to continue the war.” Russia does not want peace, nor does it want a truce or a cease-fire.
Knowing the character of politicians, business leaders, owners, coaches and managers in sports and of the human race in general can be a small edge when trading in Prediction Markets. Knowing that Putin is the end-all makes this market a no-brainer. Trading Pick: No 87¢
’Maduro Out By...’ Depends on Trump’s Motivation?
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro assumed his office on March 5, 2013, and the 63-year-old has won the last presidential elections in the South American nation by controversial fashion, the latter in 2024 where it appeared he lost badly to Independent Edmund González.
News outlets, academics and the public saw González get 7,443,584 votes (ConVzia) and 68.74% of the vote to PSUV Party’s Maduro getting 3,385,155 (30.46%)—a real blowout by election standards.
But a veteran of nefarious actions and election-tampering, Maduro found a way to retain power as in Venezuela votes are counted two ways, once digitally and once on the printed paper ballots. The CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral) had Maduro on top, 6,408.844 (51.95%) to 5,326,104 (43.18%).
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken then said the shady result "does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people." Chaos erupted in Venezuela after the election, and Maduro pretty much declared himself president from the “official” CNE vote. Okay.
That brings up today, and the strangest of realities where US President Trump has been targeting alleged drug boats off the coast of Venezuela and actually ordered a blockade of oil tankers in the waters and last Tuesday, declared Maduro’s regime a “terrorist organization.”
Insiders believe it’s the US president’s motivation to ultimately dislodge Maduro from power, and although the majority of citizens in that nation might love that idea, going about it in this way seems rather strange and blaming Venezuela for Fentanyl in the US is like blaming raccoons for building dams.
Raccoons don’t build dams—beavers and human beings do—and the conventional wisdom and truth about the deadly drug Fentanyl here in the US is that the majority of it comes and has always come from Mexico and its criminal operations with the precursor chemicals originating in China.
At Polymarket in the ‘Maduro Out By...’ market, traders can buy Yes-No contracts as to when they feel the Venezuelan president may be gone by, with December 31, 2025 at just 3% now as the calendar ticks the year away with a January 31, 2026 date trading at 13% on December 22.
Maduro out by March 31, 2026 is at 39% with a year from now—December 31, 2026—trading at 54%. November 30, 2025 was already resolved as a ‘No’ in this Politics market.
Trading Thoughts: With Trump in the White House, many wouldn’t be surprised if we had a lunar blockade of the Moon one day and he seems intent on this country and this man and with yes man Pete Hegseth as his Secretary of Defense, they may even have US troops in Venezuela soon.
For me, three more months seems like all Maduro will be able to last, maybe the strongest military and most bullheaded president in US history. Trading Pick: March 31, 2026, Yes 39¢
Next Michigan Football Coach Market Now Leaning Fisch
When the University of Michigan football Head Coach Sherrone Moore was fired by the school and charged with felony third-degree home invasion for having “an inappropriate relationship with a staff member,” it meant the Wolverines were immediately in the market for a new HC.
For now, #19 Michigan (9-3), playing against #12 Texas (9-3) in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Eve at Camping World Stadium (AstroTurf RootZone 3D2) in Orlando, Florida (ABC, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST) in a game where traders at Kalshi were predicting a Longhorns win (71%).
Serving as interim Head Coach for Michigan is Biff Poggi. But who will the Wolverines and Athletic Director Ward Emanuel tab as the next Head Coach for a program that has seen some great ones like Fielding Yost, Bo Schembechler, Lloyd Carr, and Jim Harbaugh?
At Polymarket, traders are behind Washington HC Jedd Fisch (14%), Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer (11%), Louisville HC Jeff Brohm (12%), Interim HC Poggi (9%), Missouri HC Eliah Drinkwitz (6%), Brian Kelly (5%), Jessie Minter (3%), Brian Daboll (3%), Jon Gruden (3%), and Duke HC Manny Diaz (3%)
Trading Thoughts: An AP report said Michigan had contacted Dillingham but rumors of a new Dillingham ASU Contract seems like other candidates may be a better trade. With Jay the son of former UM HC Jim, maybe he’s next in Ann Arbor? Nah.
Brian Kelly seems the logical pick from this distance after being fired from LSU, and trading at 10¢ on December 22,, seems like a great level to get in while everyone is busy concentrating on the ongoing CFP and Christmastime. Trading Pick: Brian Kelly, Yes 10¢
California at Hawai’i in Hawai’i Bowl on Christmas Eve
Will the great Christmas Eve tradition of watching It’s A Wonderful Life or the NORAD Santa Tracker be replaced by watching College Football bowls? Probably not, but for those enjoying football every day until we get sick, this is the offering from the Gods on December 24.
Now ACC members California (7-5) head across the Pacific Ocean to paradise to face QB Micah Alejado and MWC members Hawai’i (8-4) from the TC Ching Athletics Complex (AstroTurf) in Honolulu, Hawai’i on Wednesday night in the Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl (ESPN, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT).
On Monday, CFB traders at Kalshi were split between California (50%) and Hawai’i (50%).
Trading Thoughts: Handicapping Bowl games can be tricky with so many players (and even coaches) leaving their schools and not playing the games, so do your homework if trading and use the Opt-Out Tracker to see who may be and who may not be putting on the shoulder pads.
Cal fired HC Justin Wilcox, so OC Nick Rolovich is now interim HC. Starting QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is expected to play and should return to Berkeley for the 2026-27 NCAAF season.
The biggest absence here is Hawai’i WR Jackson Harris (19.7 YPC, 12 TD) who entered the Transfer Portal.
Cal is 12-13-1 in Bowl games while the Rainbow Warriors are 8-6-0 in their 14 Bowl games. The Golden Bears are 3-2 lifetime vs Hawai’i. With RB Kendrick Raphael and WRs Jacob De Jesus and Trond Grizzel and no WR Harris for the Bows, lean Cal. Trading Pick: Cal Game Winner Yes 50¢
PM Traders Can Feast on Five NBA Games on Christmas Day
The 2025-26 NBA Regular Season hasn’t been too surprising so far, outside of the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder racing out to a 24-1 start—before losing to the Spurs in NBA Cup play—and LeBron James (16.4 PPG) devolving into the Lakers third-best scoring option.
On Christmas Day, the world’s most prestigious professional basketball league will have five games—and a Disney special—for fans in its annual wall-to-wall holiday offering which didn’t have to compete with the NFL viewers every December 25. How the times have changed.
Tipping off the action on Thursday will be now NBA Cup-champion Knicks hosting the Cavaliers (ESPN, ABC, 12 ET/9 PT) followed by those champs, the Thunder welcoming Victor Wembayama and the Spurs to OKC for a great Western Conference matchup (ESPN, ABC, 2:30 ET/11:30 PT).
Next up, Steph Curry and the Warriors host rookie Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks (ESPN, ABC, 5 ET/2 PT), followed by LeBron and the Lakers hosting the Rockets (ESPN, ABC, 8 ET/5 PT), with Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets facing the Timberwolves in Denver (ESPN, ABC, 10:30 ET/7:30 PT).
Trading Thoughts: With OKC unbeaten at Home (13-0) and memories of that loss at the T-Mobile Arena in LV in the NBA Cup, expect some revenge motivation here. The Thunder were 9-for-37 (24%) on 3’s in that loss, so expect better shooting. Trading Pick: Thunder -11.5 56¢
Cowboys at Redskins Opens Up NFL Christmas Day
The wounded Commanders (4-11, 2-4 Home) welcome their long-time rivals, the Cowboys (6-8-1, 2-5 Road) to Northwest Stadium (Bermuda Grass) in Landover, Maryland for this Christmas Day NFC East offering between teams who won’t make the Postseason (Netflix, 1 EST/12 CST/1 PST).
In games from Week 16 , Washington hosted the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Saturday and lost, 29-18 in a trade we suggested for you here last week while Dak Prescott and Dallas tasted more frustration as they fell 34-17 to the Chargers in Jerryworld on Sunday.
NFL traders at Kalshi are putting their money on the Cowboys here (71%) over the host Commanders (29%) in this first of two Christmas games to air on the Netflix streaming service with Dallas wins by over 6.5 points at 47% and the more than 48.5 points scored trading at 59%.
Trading Thoughts: When these two met in Week 7 in Big D, the Cowboys rolled 44-22, sending The Artist Formerly Known As The Redskins under the .500 mark and starting a season-ending 8-game losing streak that could only be ended when the lowly Giants appeared on the schedule.
The problem with this game—as well as the other two Christmas Day games—is that neither team really cares about winning and (the lack of) motivation is , and will always be, a problem for those trading in Prediction Markets and/or wagering on sports.
With Commanders QB Jayden Daniels done, Dallas is healthier. The Cowpoke are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, winning the last two in metro DC and scoring 72 points in the process. Santa brings us NFL coal. So do we blame the elves of the old man? Trading Pick: Cowboys Game Winner Yes 72¢
Lions at Minnesota in NFC North Christmas Day Gift
The Vikings (6-8, 2-4 Home) and Lions (8-6, 1-3 Road) were the toast of the NFC North last year, but now the Packers and Bears are on top so this Christmas Day game from US Bank Stadium (Act Global Xtreme Turf DX) in Minneapolis lacks the intended luster (Netflix, 4:30 EST/1:30 PST).
In Week 16 play on Sunday, Minnesota was in East Rutherford, New Jersey to play the Giants and the Vikings won their third straight, 16-13, while Jared Goff and the Lions welcomed the Steelers to Motown in a game very important to both and Detroit ended up losing, 29-24. Maybe next year?
At Kalshi, NFL traders like Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions here (69%) over the host Vikings (31%) with Detroit wins by over 6.5 points at 50% and the more than 45.5 points scored trading at 48%.
Trading Thoughts: When these two played in Week 9, JJ McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings upset host Detroit, 27-24, and Minnesota is a dominating 81-45-2 lifetime vs the Lions although Detroit had won 5 straight meetings heading into this season.
The theory that the window may be closing on Detroit may still hold water, and with McCarthy and a nothing-to-lose attitude the rest of the NFL Regular Season, taking a chance on the host and underdog Vikings here seems like the smartest idea. Trading Pick: Vikings Game Winner, Yes 31¢
Chiefs Hosting Broncos in a Sad Christmas Day Game
The schedule makers thought this NFL Week 17 Christmas Day would be a real primetime present, but with the Chiefs (6-9, 5-3 at Home) eliminated and Patrick Mahomes out injured, this game vs the Broncos (12-3, 5-2 Road) is now anticlimactic (Prime Video, 8:15 EST/5:15 PST).
In Week 16 action, Kansas City was at woeful Tennessee with Gardner Minshew filling in for the injured QB Mahomes (Knee) and the Chiefs lost, 26-9. Denver hosted Jacksonville in search of its 12th straight victory and the Broncos were humbled, losing to the Jaguars, 34-20 on Sunday.
NFL traders at Kalshi like QB Bo Nix and the Broncos here (86%) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (NorthBridge Bermudagrass) in Kansas City, Missouri over the host Chiefs (14%) with Denver wins by over 13.5 points at 50% and the more than 36.5 points scored trading at 50%.
Trading Thoughts: When games become meaningless for one of the two teams playing, it’s always hard to gauge how much the wounded or out-of-the-running team will care about actually trying to win games, with next year already in mind and starting players turning it down a notch.
Although this looked like a huge game heading into the season, now KC must go through the motions with Minshew while at least the Broncos care about winning with a nice win streak and Homefield advantage in the AFC still on the table. Trading Pick: Under 36.5 Yes 55¢
