Prediction markets are great because they offer opinions from the educated masses you wouldn’t see in sportsbooks or normal opinion polls, offering trading on just about anything under the sun. And we see this in the Aliens and UFO markets we see on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Found in the Culture library of markets on Polymarket, the ‘Will the US Confirm that Aliens Exist before 2027?’ trading exchange is a completely different animal and subject matter than the government’s UFO files although they are both cut from the same interstellar cloth.
Traders at the prediction market are now giving the odds of the existence of aliens being confirmed (by December 31, 2026) a 12% chance, up from 7% (November 5) but down 9% from its peak on December 7 (21%).
In July 2023, Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senator Mike Round (R-SD) led a major bipartisan effort and introduced a 64-page amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) focused on UFOs and UAPs transparency and disclosure.
Since then, much progress has been made on giving the American public the truths that the government knows, and has known for decades, about extraterrestrial life and the gravity-defying vehicles of transportation that they use.
George Noory and the popular nightly radio show Coast to Coast AM (1 am-5 am EST/10pm to 2 am PST) have always covered these subjects and imminent disclosure seems on the horizon with the Trump administration fairly progressive on trying to release information on some things to us.
Along with Luis Elizondo, David Grusch, and podcaster Joe Rogan, two of the biggest advocates for UFO/UAP disclosure are George Knapp and Jeremy Corbell and the two have a great podcast called Weaponized that covers these otherworldly subjects.
TMZ Presents also released a three-part documentary series on Tubi last year called TMZ Presents: UFO Revolution which is one of the best looks at the UFO/UAP and ET realities observed on the third planet from the sun over the last century. We are not alone. We have never been alone.
Trump to Declassify UFO Files in 2025 is Ruled a ‘Yes’?
The ‘Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025’ wagering pool at Polymarket exploded in betting activity, with almost $17 million traded. The odds shifted drastically from just 6% (‘Yes’) on December 6 to 98% on Tuesday December 9 where we see the outcome ‘Yes’ determined.
We must have missed something. The rules in this market stated “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to extraterrestrial life.” I have been watching TV all day. I heard nothing about any UFO disclosure from Trump.
But this is why the buyer should beware in prediction markets, sports betting, and other vehicles involving your money.
Someone mysteriously bought heavily in the market and reports of an insider tip surfaced but it’s hard to tell who bought big, what exactly was declassified, and why this market was (proposed to be) resolved. The result was disputed two times, but resolved to ‘Yes’ both times.
S&P 500 to Set a New All-Time High by December 31?
The S&P 500 has had a very impressive year despite some major bearish runs over the last 11 months and traders at Polymarket are giving (Will the) S&P 500 all-time High by December 31? a 76% chance of outcome.
The current all-time high for the S&P 500 is 6,890.89 in October 2025—the intraday peak was even higher near 6,290—and on Tuesday, December 9, the S&P was at 6,840.41, so it seems like it’s only a matter of time until the S&P 500 sets (another) all-time high. We have three weeks.
Trading Thoughts: Polymarket traders are giving the S&P 500 a 69% chance (+43%) of setting another new all-time high by December 31, 2025 and this seems like a good and simple (“Yes”) trade to get behind.
Looking at the S&P 500 compared to the cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC), for the first time since the year 2015, the S&P 500 (+16.27% in 2025) was outperforming Bitcoin (-3.55% in 2025). But since that year, the S&P had (12/8/2025) gone up “only” 232.17% with Bitcoin soaring 28,383%.
General Mills, Micron, Cintas All Reporting This Week
Polymarket offers trading on quarterly earnings calls, and this week we see several companies reporting results on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Reporting pre-market on Wednesday is General Mills (GIS) and traders give them a 90% chance of beating estimates
After the closing bell on Wednesday, December 17, Micron Technology (MU) will report Q1 2026 earnings and are being given a 95% chance of beating estimates due to high expectations stimulated by AI demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM),
You can also trade on whether or not Micron Technology (MU) Up or Down After Earnings?
Reporting pre-market on Thursday, December 18 are Cintas (CTAS), CarMax (KMX), Accenture (ACN), Paychex (PAYX), and FactSet Research Systems (FDS) with all expected to beat estimates by traders with Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), and KB Home (KBH) all reporting after the closing bell.
Friday, December 19 will end the Earnings Calendar for 2025, with Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), Carnival (CCL), and Conagra Brands (CAG) all reporting their earnings before the market opens.
5—Star Hoosiers QB Mendoza Rewards Heisman Backers
We talked about the Heisman Trophy Winner market in the first-ever edition of The Prediction Report and mentioned Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza way before the spotlight got too bright and then again in the October 21, 2025 issue where we suggested two winners.
We suggested “Taking a chance on Heisman Trophy (Award candidate) Fernando Mendoza (Yes 23¢) and Indiana (To Go Undefeated in the Regular Season, 56%) makes a lot of sense now and sharp traders may want to get into both of these markets.”
On Saturday, Mendoza easily won the Heisman Trophy voting announced at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York, beating out Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, Notre Dame RB Jerimiah Love, and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin for the prestigious award, usually won by a high-profile QB.
Heading into the 2025 College Football Playoff where the Hoosiers (13-0) are the #1 ranked team, Mendoza had 2,980 passing yards, 33 TDs, and just 6 interceptions leading his school to the Rose Bowl after upsetting then-#1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Conference Championship game.
A transfer from the University of California, the big Mendoza (6-5, 255) is the first player from Indiana University to win the Heisman Trophy. His younger brother Alberto serves as the Hoosiers backup QB and was given much credit from big brother Fernando at the Big Apple ceremony.
Is Savannah Louie a Lock to Win Survivor 49 on Wednesday?
On Wednesday, the Survivor 49 series finale will air on CBS (8 EST/7CST/8 PST) with the final five players in Fiji battling it out to make that final three Tribal Council in front of host Jeff Probst and have a shot at making Reality TV history and winning that coveted $1 million grand prize.
After last Wednesday’s episode which saw Alex voted off, there are just five players left—Kristina, Rizo, Savannah, Sage, and Soph—and prediction markets have been all over Savannah all season, so maybe someone knew something as the seasons are recorded up to the final live show.
Traders at Polymarket now have Savannah Louie at an 85% chance of winning Survivor 49 with traders at the popular prediction market giving castaways Rizo Velovic (9%), Sophi Ballard (3%), Sage Ahrens-Nichols (3%), and Kristina Mills (1%) being given little chance by investors.
Trading Thoughts: The winner will be revealed live on Wednesday after the end of the last episode and the final Tribal Council questioning and voting, but Savannah has a killer résumé this underwhelming season and should get almost every vote. Trading Pick: Savannah Louie Yes 86¢
The three-hour Survivor 50 season premiere airs on Wednesday, February 25 (8 EST/7CST/8 PST) with the king of Reality TV networks, CBS, airing a special two-week marathon of classic episodes of Survivor to hype the coming S50: In The Hands of the Fans season this Winter.
ODU vs South Florida in StaffDNA Cure Bowl on Wednesday
The 2026 StaffDNA Cure Bowl sees Old Dominion (9-3) facing South Florida (9-3) at Camping World Stadium (AstroTurf Root Zone 303) in Orlando, Florida on Wednesday afternoon (ESPN, 5 EST/4 CST/2 PST) as the 2025 College Bowl season continues.
With Monarchs QB Colton Joseph not playing and entering the Transfer Portal, traders at Kalshi are backing QB Byrum Brown and South Florida (60%) over Old Dominion (40%) with ODU to win by more than 3.5 points scored trading at 47% and over 53.5 points scored at 52%.
Trading Thoughts: ODU allowed a total of 24 points its last 4 games but with WRs Keshaun Singleton (17.5 YPC, 8 TD), Jeremiah Kruger (15.6 yPC, 7 TD), and Mudia Reuben (13.8 YPC, 5 TD), the Bulls can score through the air and keep the chains moving in the Sunshine State’.
And playing in Florida should be an edge for South Florida who spent a good deal of the 2025 NCAAF Regular Season in the AP Top 25.
Trading Pick: South Florida -3.5 Yes 50¢
Seahawks Hosting Rams in NFC West Thriller on Thursday
NFL Week 16 kicks off with this NFC West showdown between the Seahawks (11-3, 4-2 at Home) welcoming the Rams (11-3, 5-2 Road) to Lumen Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Seattle, Washington for a must-see edition of Thursday Night Football (Prime Video, 8:15 EST/5:15 PST).
In Week 15 action, the Seahawks won their fourth straight game, rallying to beat the Colts on a last-minute FG while Los Angeles welcomed the Lions to SoFi Stadium as QBs Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford said hello to their old teams in a 41-34 shootout won by the focused Rams.
NFL traders at Kalshi like Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and the Rams here (51%) over the visiting Seahawks (49%) with Los Angeles wins by over 2.5 points at 45% and the more than 44.5 points scored trading at 51%.
Trading Thoughts: When these two met earlier this season in Week 11 in Lalaland, the Rams won 21-19 in a game that saw Seahawks QB Sam Darnold throw 4 interceptions. Don’t expect that kind of TO Differential (-3) this time around from the hosts in the Emerald City.
After 56 lifetime meetings, Los Angeles and Seattle have both gone 28-28-0 with the Rams 7-3-0 over the last 10 meetings and an impressive 4-1-0 at Lumen Field over that span. This game may be for all of the marbles in the NFC West and is too close to call. Trading Pick: None
9—#9 Alabama at #8 Oklahoma Kicks Off the CFP on Friday
The 2025-26 College Football Playoff kicks off with this First Round Game with #9 Alabama (10-3) at #8 Oklahoma (10-2) from Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Bermudagrass) in Norman, OK on Friday (ABC, ESPN, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT). The winner gets #1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
In as close as trading numbers get, NCAAF fans at Kalshi like QB Jon Mateer and Oklahoma (50%) over QB Ty Simpson and Alabama (50%) with Oklahoma wins by over 2.5 points at 47% and more than 40.5 points scored at 50% (Yes 50¢, No 53¢).
The Sooners have really improved a lot on defense and Oklahoma beat Alabama, 23-21 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa in SEC play earlier this season, wearing down the Crimson Tide in a game that saw Alabama have 406 total yards to the Sooners 212 and 11 more first downs.
Trading Thoughts: This game will be traded heavily being the first game of the CFP and the lone FBS offering on Friday night. Oklahoma is 5-2-1 lifetime vs Alabama and has a 2-game win streak vs Alabama, including that aforementioned victory on Saturday, November 15.
With RB Jam Miller back and QB Simpson (3,268 passing yards 26 TD) having speedy WR targets in Germie Bernard (13.4 YPC, 7 TD), Ryan Williams (15.0 YPC, 4 TD), and Isiaiah Horton (12.3 YPC, 8 TD), the Crimson Tide have better weapons. Trading Pick: Alabama Game Winner Yes 51¢
10—#10 Miami at #7 A&M in CFP First Round on Saturday
Miami Florida (10-2) edged out Notre Dame for the last and #10 spot in the 12-team CFP, and on Saturday, the Hurricanes face #7 Texas A&M (11-1) at Kyle Field (Latitude 36 Bermudagrass) in College Station, Texas in the second First Round game (ABC, ESPN, 12 EST/11 CST/9 PST).
NCAAF traders at Kalshi are backing QB Marcel Reed and Texas A&M (60%) at Aggieland over QB Carson Beck Miami Florida (40%) with Texas A&M wins by over 3.5 points at 51% and over 51.5 points scored at 51% (Yes 51¢, No 52¢).
Both teams have great WRs—Miami’s Malachi Toney has 970 yards and 7 TD—and it may have two of the top picks in the 2026 NFL Draft in OL Francis Mauigo (6-6, 315) and DE Rueben Bain Jr. (6-3, 275). LB Mohamed Toure (54 tackles) and the Canes rank #6 in Scoring Defense (13.8 PPG).
Trading Thoughts: The Hurricanes beat Notre Dame in Week 1, good enough to get the nod from the CFP Selection Committee and good enough to earn a shot at a national title, right? Lifetime, Miami Florida is 3-2-0 against the Aggies, winning the last meeting, 48-33 (2023).
The 11th Man boast the #14 Scoring Offense (36.3 PPG) in FBS and with WRs KC Concepcion (16.5 YPC, 9 TD), Marlo Craver (15.9 YPC, 4 TD), and Ashton Bethel-Roman (23.0 YPC, 5 TD), the hosts have great targets but Reed has been off target of late. Too tough to call. Trading Pick: None
#11 Tulane Looks For Upset at #6 Ole Miss on Saturday
QB Jake Retzlaff and Group of Five darling, Tulane (11-2) head to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Grass) in Oxford, Mississippi to battle QB Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss (11-1) on Saturday in this CFP First Round game (TNT, truTV, HBO Max, 3:30 EST/2:30 CST/12:30 PST).
Lane Kiffin is gone from The Vaught, so expect some extra energy from RB Kewan Lacy and Ole Miss who Kalshi traders are backing big (88%) over The Little Engine That Could Tulane (12%). Mississippi wins by over 17.5 points is 51% and over 56.5 points scored is 53% (Yes 53¢, No 51¢).
Trading Thoughts: When these two played in Week 4, the Rebels rolled to a 45-10 win at The Vaught, but we can expect a much better effort from the Green Wave here who looked pretty good defeating North Texas in The America Conference Championship Game last weekend.
Lifetime, Ole Miss is 44-29-0 vs Tulane with the Rebels having won the last 14 straight, including the last 4 by 39 (39-0), 40 (61-21), 17 (37-20), and 35 (45-10). That’s 182-51 and an average margin of victory of 32.7 PPG. Sold. Trading Pick: Ole Miss -17.5, Yes 50¢
#12 James Madison at #5 Oregon on Saturday Night
Another G5 darling, CFP #12 James Madison (12-1) faces QB Dante Moore and #6 Oregon (11-1) at Autzen Stadium (FieldTurf) in Eugene, Oregon in this CFP First Round game on Saturday night (TNT, truTV, HBO Max, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST). The Ducks won 6 straight after losing to #1 Indiana.
College Football Playoff traders at Kalshi like Oregon (93%) to win easily over Sun Belt Conference champions James Madison (7%) with Oregon wins by over 23.5 points trading at 46% and over 50.5 points scored trading at 51% (Yes 51¢, No 52¢) five days before kickoff.
Trading Thoughts: Alonza Barnett III and James Madison come in winners of 11 straight, but the Ducks are healthy at WR with Evan Stewart back maybe and Malik Benson (17.0 YPC, 4 TD), Dakorian Moore (15.8 YPG, 3 TD), and Kenyon Sadiq (12.3 YPC, 8 TD) typical Oregon waterbugs.
This is the first meeting ever between these two and expect James Madison to try to establish a ground game to keep the ball out of the hands of the Ducks who average 38.3 PPG (#9) and will expect to win easily here and advance to play at #4 Texas Tech. Trading Pick: Oregon -23.5 Yes 46¢