In this issue we look at the 2027 UK Local Elections along with why prediction markets didn’t offer markets on the Kentucky Derby, the weekly Earnings Calendar, an NBA Finals odds update with Round 1 over, and previews for the final two UEFA Champions League Semifinals to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Traders See Reform Party Winning Local Elections
The 2026 United Kingdom (UK) local elections will be held on Tuesday, May 7 with voters in England going to the ballot box in a number of local council and mayoral races in the country and voters in Scotland and Wales electing representatives in both of their national parliaments.
Polymarket traders say the Reform party (97%, Polymarket) will rule the day down by the seaside with the Green party (2%), Labour party (1%), and Conservative party (<1%) all getting blown out.
Prediction markets have become a very effective and possibly the most accurate way of predicting elections as we have seen so many times now. The recent election of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar was further proof and PMs can become a very effective tool in election integrity.
When the numbers don’t match up, like we saw in the 2024 Presidential election in Venezuela where strongman and now US prisoner of sorts Nicolás Maduro allegedly stole the election, it gives the proper election authorities reason to see why there was such a mathematical difference.
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Back to the markets — here's what else is open for trading in the UK right now.
Some Other UK Election Markets Open at Polymarket
Besides the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections, there are a number of other markets open for trading including Reform Wins ___ Seats?, Will Reform Win a Mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections?, and Will Reform Win a Mayorship in the 2026 UK local elections?
Some UK Mayoral elections winners markets there include the Croydon Mayoral Election—where Rowenna Davis (56%) was favored over Jason Perry (32%) at Polymarket on May 3—the Lewisham Mayoral Election, the Hackney Mayoral Election, and the Newham Mayoral Election.
The next general election in the United Kingdom needs to be held no later than August 15, 2029.
CFTC Chairman Selig Talks PMs on Predictable Podcast
CFTC chairman Michael Selig (age 36) joined the Predictable with Stu Burguiere podcast (April 23) to discuss prediction markets—their origins and what lies ahead. A couple things stood out in the 32-minute listen: how sharp Selig is, and how political the framing gets, with an unmistakable "Biden bad, Trump good" undertone.
Fair enough. It's hard not to wonder where the still-burgeoning U.S. PM industry would be without Trump winning—twice. (Though it wouldn't surprise anyone if either president couldn't explain how a single PM market actually works.)
Interestingly, sports gambling's legalization in 2018 never really broke down along party lines. PMs somehow have—with Republicans playing the unlikely liberals and Democrats cast as the conservative naysayers. Though notable exceptions exist on both sides: Chris Christie [R] and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [D] are both skeptics.
Trump put PMs on the map through his 2024 Presidential markets, his son Donald Jr.'s board seats at Kalshi and Polymarket, and his own platform (Truth Predicts)—though he's soured on the space since the Maduro Capture soldier scandal. Then again, it's Monday. He may come around by Thursday if McRibs return to DC.
On the value of it all, Selig put it plainly: "Prediction markets provide measurable value to market participants who use them to hedge and speculate on event outcomes as well as the public at large, which benefits from more reliable information about current events." And on oversight: "The CFTC is committed to setting the gold standard for regulation of these markets."
CPM: No Casino Games on Prediction Markets
The Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) lobbying group was created in December 2025 to advocate for federal legislation and improve industry standards in the prediction markets space while looking to prevent over-regulation by the states.
The group is led by former US Rep. Patrick Maloney and the CPM represents Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Underdog and the firm reacted to the end of CFTC’s recent 45-day period for people to pose rulemaking concerns. Over 1,400 comments were posted in the end.
One area where it seems the industry, states, politicians, and lobbyists can likely find some common ground is in the offering of Casino Games on prediction markets. On February 10, Rep. Dina Titus [D-NV] introduced legislation HR 7477 targeting those types of to not be on PMs.
“Prediction markets are organized, regulated DCMs and SEFs that facilitate trading between multiple participants on an open, competitive, and impartial marketplace,” the CPM contends. “In contrast, casino games are entertainment products, generally played against the casino itself.”
“PMs facilitate price discovery, providing useful information about the probability of future events. There is no price discovery function to casino-style games. Event contracts on DCMs are tied to real-world events associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.”
“Wagers on casino games have no economic significance apart from the wager itself.”
Online sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel offer casino games on their platforms.
Earnings Reports For Several Companies This Week
We will see many companies reporting earnings this week, including ON Semiconductor (ON), Sonos (SON), Grab Holdings (GRAB), and Powell Industries (POWL) who will all be reporting after the opening bell on Monday, April 4.
On Tuesday, pre-market earnings reports from Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Sunoco (SUN), PayPal (PYPL), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) will come out with New York Times (NYT), CVS Health (CVS), Uber (UBER), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and Disney (DIS) all reporting on Wednesday.
On Thursday, McDonald’s (MCD), Hertz (HTZ), Papa John’s (PZZA), Shake Shack (SHAK), and Warby Parker (WARB) report before open with Wendy’s (WEN) reporting pre-market on Friday and Polymarket giving the burger girl a 74% chance of beating the GAAP EPS greater of $0.10.
If you would like to watch the Q1 2026 results (ending in March) Earnings Report conference call from Marathon (MPC—NYSE) you can access the company’s investor relations website. The earnings call begins at 11 ET/8 PT. ➤Trading Pick: Marathon Petroleum to Beat Estimates, Yes 89¢
Why There Was No Kentucky Derby on Polymarket
We were going to preview and highlight the 2026 Kentucky Derby last issue, but when going to Kalshi and Polymarket, nothing was found. And for good reason it turns out. On April 29, news came out that Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI) asked Polymarket to remove its Kentucky Derby market.
And Polymarket did. The popular prediction market—now legal again in the US (in most states) and up in December 2025—did pull down that winner’s market for the 2026 Run for the Roses and a similar market at Novig also disappeared. Kalshi hasn’t had a Kentucky Derby market in two years.
Bill Carstanjen , CEO of Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN—NASDAQ)—the Louisville-based company that runs and operates Churchill Downs Racetrack there and the prestigious Kentucky Derby—was very vocal about PMs being able to offer up event contracts for horse racing markets.
“Pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing is conducted under the Interstate Horseracing Act, which is a federal umbrella statute that essentially gives us a series of rights—call them intellectual property rights—in our content,” Carstanjen said.
To take wagers across any forum, whether it be a sports wagering platform, another horse racing platform, or a prediction markets platform, you need our express consent,” Carstanjen continued. You can’t just do it without that. We haven’t agreed to provide our content to prediction markets.”
Not wanting to rattle another industry associated with gambling for what would amount to not-so-much profit in an area they are very green in, Polymarket was quick to take it down. Parimutuel betting is big in the Horse Racing industry and trying to cut into its pie is risky.
Horse racing and betting is very different from sports and sports betting. Not counting Victor Wembayama, there are no animals in pro sports. Horse bettors are very different from sports bettors. Never get in the way of a horse bettor rushing to the window. I have seen men lose limbs.
In the end, it was a very good thing for the prediction market crowd that they couldn’t get involved with underdog Golden Tempo (23/1) coming from last place to win the Run For The Roses at Churchill Downs as Cherie DeVaux became the first female trainer to win the 152-year-old race.
2026 NBA Finals Winner Futures Market Update
The 2026 NBA Playoffs are underway and we will have seen four teams bounced on in the Play-In games (Hornets, Heat, Warriors, Clippers) and another eight eliminated in the First Round (Celtics, Raptors, Magic, Hawks, Suns, Rockets, Nuggets, Blazers) leaving us with eight teams who can win the 2026 NBA Finals (76ers, Pistons, Cavaliers, Knicks, Thunder, Lakers, Timberwolves, Spurs).
Injuries have played some part in this NBA Postseason with the Spurs giraffe Victor Wembayama (Concussion), the Thunder’s Jaylen Williams (Hamstring), and the Nuggets Aaron Gordon (Calf) all suffering knocks for their Western Conference teams. Still, the West is 3x better than the East.
NBA traders at Polymarket like Oklahoma City (56%), San Antonio (20%), New York Knicks (7%), Cleveland Cavaliers (5%), Detroit Pistons (5%), Los Angeles Lakers (3%), Philadelphia 76ers (3%), and Minnesota Timberwolves (1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Thunder rolled to the title last season and it seems whoever makes it out of the West will win it with the East wide open after the Celtics loss to the 76ers. A Thunder-Spurs West Semifinals could be hell and the real Finals. That seems to happen a lot these days in sports.
Can whoever comes out of the East defeat a potentially beat up OKC bunch or a young SA squad? Probably not when a guy like Dylan Harper’s scoring 27 points and grabbing 9 boards as the fourth man off the bench in a Spurs win with Wemby sitting, it seems the winner will come from the West.
The benches will play a large part in who ends up winning in June—the NBA Finals tip off on Wednesday, June 3—and with guys like Harper, Luke Kornet and Keldon Johnson and the Thunder seemingly overpriced (Yes 57¢, No 44¢), sticking with San Antonio. ➤Trading Pick: Spurs 20.4¢
2026 CONCACAF Champs Cup Semis Leg 2s This Week
The crucial Leg 2’s in the Semifinals round of the 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup will be played this week with the two MLS clubs and the two Liga MX clubs battling it out with the possibilities of either an all-MLS or an all-Liga MX Final on Saturday, May 30. Or maybe not.
In Leg 1 at GEODIS Park in Nashville last Tuesday, UANL shut out Nashville SC, 1-0 in Opryland as Ángel Correa scored the game’s only goal (33’) with the Liga MX side taking a 1-0 lead back home. UANL outshot Nashville, 13-9 (7-2 on Target) despite the hosts having the ToP edge (58%-42%).
At Kalshi, traders are backing host Tigres UANL (60%) over Nashville SC (23%) with a Draw trading at 37% for Leg 2 at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolas, de los Garza, Mexico (FS2, 9:30 EDT/8:30 CDT/6:30 PDT) in early trading on May 4 ($721 volume).
In Leg 1 at LAFC last week, LAFC won 2-1 on a late goal (90+1’) from Nokosi Tatari in a game at BMO Field in LA where all 3 goals were scored in the 2nd half. Toluca had possession 64% of the match with hosts LAFC controlling the sheep’s bladder just 36% of the game.
Kalshi, traders like Toluca (67%) over LAFC(17%) with a Draw at 11% for Leg 2 at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega in Toluca, Mexico (FS2, 9:30 EDT/8:30 CDT/6:30 PDT).
➤Trading Thoughts: With FIFA Club World Cup and 2026 FIFA International Cup berths at stake, the tourney winner will gain something besides the prestige. Paulinho (6 goals), Jesús Gallardo (5 goals) and Toluca outscored opponents 14-6 heading in and will seek to level the aggregate (2-1) early.
Sam Surridge and Nashville have outscored opponents 9-2, but have met their match with Rodrigo Aguirre (4 goals), and UANL who held them scoreless in Leg 1 and can dictate the pace vs the Coyotes at home in Mexico where even the hummingbirds drink tequila and enjoy long siestas.
LAFC has the firepower to score with Denis Bouanga (5 goals) and David Martínez (4 goals), so the Over 2.5 goals would be a wise with Toluca having to score to tie the aggregate. Ozziel Herrera (3 goals) and UANL should advance also. ➤Trading Picks: UANL Tigres 60¢ Toluca-LAFC Over 2.5
UEFA CL Leg 2 Preview: Atlético at Arsenal on Tuesday
The first 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Semifinal Leg 2 will be contested with EPL club Arsenal hosting Julián Alvarez and Spanish LALIGA side Atlético Madrid at Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in London, England on Tuesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
In Leg 1 on Wednesday, April 29 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid, Atlético Madrid and Arsenal tied 1-1 in Madrid. In the UEFA Champions League Winner market, Atlético Madrid (9%) and Arsenal (31%) are trading behind Bayern Munich (32%) and Paris Saint-Germain (32%).
The collective wisdom of the masses of the Soccer traders at Polymarket see Gabriel Martinelli and hosts Arsenal (59%) beating Atlético Madrid (24%) with the Draw trading at 19%. The Total of over 2.5 goals scored (‘Yes’) was at 81¢ with the Both Teams To Score Prop at 74¢ (No 55¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Antoine Griezmann and Los Rojiblancos had trouble mounting quality scoring opportunities (18 Shots, only 4 on goal) on Arsenal and GK David Raya in Leg 1 at home, so expecting them to suddenly click in London in Leg 2 is a stretch and this should be low-scoring.
The UEFA.com club coefficiency rankings have Arsenal #1 for 2025-26, but the Gunners haven’t been playing that great this Spring and Bayern, defending champs PSG, Manchester City, and maybe Inter playing better with Atlético closer to Arsenal. Both are lucky they drew each other.
Both goals in Leg 1 came from Penalty Kicks—with VAR stopping another possible PK for Arsenal in the 2nd Half—but expect the referees to keep their whistles in their mouths and to let this one be decided from open play. ➤Trading Picks: Atlético Madrid +1.5 67¢, Under 2.5 50¢
UEFA CL Leg 2 Preview: PSG at Bayern on Wednesday
The second 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Semifinal Leg 2 sees Harry Kane and Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich welcoming defending UCL champ Paris Saint-Germain to Allianz Arena (Hybrid Grass) in München, Germany (Paramount+, 3 EDT/25 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
In Leg 1 on Tuesday, April 28 in Paris, PSG outscored Bayern 5-4 on April 28 in one of the best matches in the sport’s history. In the UCL Winner market, Paris Saint-Germain (32%) are the traders top co-choice with Arsenal (32%) followed by Bayern (31%), and Atlético Madrid (9%).
Polymarket traders are behind hosts Bayern Munich (57%) over PSG (26%) with a Draw trading at 19%. The Total of more than 3.5 goals scored (‘Yes’) was at 64¢ with the Both Teams To Score Prop ‘Yes’ at 77¢ (No 24¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Les Parisiens have looked great this tournament, and should PSG become European champions again, Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha, Désiré Doué and the Ligue 1 champions surely won’t get the kind of love from the media they would justly deserve.
Backing the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) seems wise again as we suggested in Leg 1 in the April 28 edition of The Prediction Report. With this one in Bavaria, lean to Kane, Luis Díaz, and Michael Olise to help Bayern make the Final. ➤Trading Picks: Over 3.5 Goals 64¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes 77¢
UEFA Europa League Leg 2s Will Play on Thursday
The two Leg 2s of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League Semifinals will be played on this Thursday, May 7 with SC Freiburg hosting Braga and Aston Villa welcoming Nottingham Forest to Villa Park. In the Leg 1s played on April 30, Braga won 2-1 while Nottingham Forest won 1-0 over Aston Villa.
The 2026 UEFA Europa League Final is on Wednesday, May 20 at Beşiktaş Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey. In the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League Final, it was Tottenham Hotspur—currently fighting to avoid EPL relegation—edging Manchester United 1-0 on a Brennan Johnson (42’) goal.
The EPL can make it two straight Europa League titles if the winner of the Aston Villa-Nottingham Forest semifinal can beat the winner of the Braga-FC Freiburg series in Turkey in 15 days.
In Leg 2, Kalshi traders like hosts SC Freiburg (53%) over Braga (22%) with a Draw at 26% at Europa-Park Stadion (Grass) in Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany (3 ET/12 PT) and Aston Villa (55%) over Nottingham Forest (20%) with the Draw at 25% at Villa Park (Desso GrassMaster) in Birmingham (3 ET/12 PT).
➤Trading Thoughts: The now visiting sides—Nottingham Forest and Braga—take 1-goal aggregate leads into these Leg 2’s where both hosts will be looking to equalize as quickly as possible to minimize any pressure. Villa has GK Emiliano Martínez and could win 2-0 and advance.
Braga and Freiburg met for the first time ever last week, and the visitors’ challenge will be trying to score first so they can play the clock. Despite the importance, both matches could end up providing little entertainment. ➤Trading Picks: AV-Nottingham Over 2.5 No, 55¢, Aston Villa 55¢
MLB Primetime Doubleheader on Thursday Night
ESPN is serving up a doubleheader of MLB games on Thursday night, with Boston hosting Tampa Bay from Fenway Park (7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT) in an AL matchup and San Diego welcoming St Louis to Petco Park (10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT) in an NL showdown.
In the Pro Baseball Champion (2026 MLB World Series Winner) market at Kalshi, the ‘Yes’ contracts give Fernando Tatis Jr and the Padres a 4.3% of becoming this season’s MLB champion with the Red Sox at 2%, the Devil Rays at 0.7%, and the Cardinals 0.6% on April 28.
➤Trading Thoughts: The ESPN 2025 MLB H2H grid reveals that the Red Sox went a dominating 10-3 vs AL East foes. Tampa Bay, going 6-1 at Fenway and outscoring the Rays 29-22, winning four 1-run games in Beantown. The Carmines have beat TB 6 straight times in Boston heading in.
Last season, SD went 4-3 vs St Louis, winning 2 of the 3 at Petco with Robert Suárez—now with Atlanta—picking up 2 Saves in that series. The Cardinals are playing better than expected to start the season but the Friars will expect to take 2 of 3 from this series again. ➤Game Pick: Red Sox
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will take a look at the tipoff of the 2026 WNBA Regular Season, DAZN’s possible entry into prediction markets, early NFL AP Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year Award winner markets, two English Premier League previews, a LA LIGA preview, and an MLB game preview as well as trading previews for UFC 328 on Saturday and NASCAR’s Bowling at the Glen race on Sunday.