UEFA Champions League Semifinals

The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tournament has seen 184 matches played with 539 goals (3.47 GPM) in front of 8,066,855 fans in attendance and over a billion at home watching on TV to get down to the final four clubs and the Semifinals which will start this week with the two Leg 1s.

Four of the top leagues in Europe, the English Premier League, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga and Spanish LALIGA, all have an elite club from their ranks who still has a chance to become the European champions when the Final is played next month on May 30 in Budapest, Hungary.

Defending UCL champions and French champion Paris Saint-Germain embarrassed it EPL opponents in the R16 and Quarterfinals, outscoring Chelsea and Liverpool, 12-2 to advance to face Bundesliga heavyweights Bayern Munich and the series where the rubber meets the road.

Les Parisens and Die Roten (The Reds) kick off their series with Leg 1 today (Tuesday, April 28) and we will have an extensive match preview for traders and fans below in this issue.

The EPL’s Arsenal FC ousted Sporting CP (1-0 aggregate) in a sluggish Quarterfinal series to advance to the Semis to play perennially underrated LALIGA side Atlético Madrid who bounced rivals Barcelona (3-2 aggregate) after previously fighting to even make it to the Round of 32.

The Gunners and Los Rojiblancos open their series on Wednesday, April 29 with Leg 1 and we also have a trading preview for this one. The two Semifinal Leg 2s will be played next week with Arsenal hosting Atlético on Tuesday, May 5 and Bayern welcoming PSG to Allianz on Wednesday, May 6.

The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Final will see the two Semifinal winners meeting at Puskás Aréna in Budapest, Hungary, on Saturday, May 30 (TV US—CBS, Paramount, TV UK—TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video, 18:00 CET (5 pm GMT/12 EDT/11 am CDT/10 MDT/9 PDT).

The starting time of this year’s UCL Final was moved up from its usual 21:00 CET kickoff time to be an earlier event to try to accommodate fans, specifically families, in terms of travel and safety.

After rumors of potential funding cuts from the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the flight of some big name golfers back to the Professional Golfer’s Association (PGA), the idea LIV Golf league would suddenly be coming to an end cropped up, only to have the organization snap back.

CEO Scott O'Neil emailed his staff and said the 2026 LIV season will continue “as planned, uninterrupted, and at full-throttle.” So the idea to get the best professional golfers in a new league in the desert fueled by millions of barrels of Saudi oil money doesn’t seem to be working so well.

But at least the PR put out by LOV and O’Neil seemed to, at least for the time being, put out the fires of fear. And the prediction markets reacted to both pieces of news. When the doubt crept in, the ‘Yes’ in this market was trading as high as 84% (April 16) before plummeting back to its current (April 22) chance of 34%.

➤Trading Thoughts: Besides this main ‘Shutdown’ market, you can also find other prediction markets involving LIV Golf and its potential problems, including the ‘Will a LIV Golf Tournament Take Place in Virginia before May 11, 2026?’ at Kalshi (91.7%). So they will keep playing for now.

With such a sharp jump from ‘Yes’ to ‘No’ here, maybe someone knows something about future funding for the fledgling league. For me, it seems the value and better approach would be backing the ‘Yes’ again at this (new) low price as 2026 still has 7 months to go. ➤Trading Pick: Yes 37c

Click here to trade on ‘Will LIV Golf Announce Shutdown in 2026?’ at Polymarket

The marriage of the decade is set to take place sometime this year with Pop princess Taylor Swift set to tie the knot with Kansas City Chiefs’ TE Travis Kelce, but the when and the where are still big mysteries, as they should be, with something so big yet so private in the crazy The Digital Age.

There are five main locations offered up as markets for these upcoming nuptials between the two 36-year olds with the Empire State of New York (75%) the heavy favorite followed by the smallest state in the union, Rhode Island (26%), Tennessee (6%), Pennsylvania (5%),and Ohio (1%).

The happy couple have been dating since the Summer of 2023. Why are these specific locations markets? Here is some background:

➤New York: Taylor owns a TriBeCa penthouse in New York City and the Big Apple is a natural.

➤Rhode island: Taylor has a Watch Hill seaside estate “Holiday House” in Westerly, Rhode Island.

➤Pennsylvania: Taylor was born on a Christmas tree farm in rural Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

➤Tennessee: Taylor moved to Hendersonville at age 14 and has a mansion in Nashville.

➤Ohio: Travis was raised in Cleveland Heights and was born in Westlake, Ohio.

Click here to trade on 'Where Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding Occur?’ at Kalshi

Several companies will be reporting their earnings this week, including Coca-Cola (KO), Hilton (HLT), Franklin Resources (BEN), BP (BP) and Invesco (IVZ) who will all be reporting before the opening bell on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Yum Brands! (YUM), Wingstop (WING), Caterpillar (CAT), Penske Automotive Group (PAG), and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) will all report their earnings before the bell, while on Thursday, Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Cigna (CI), and Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) all report.

After the closing NASDAQ bell on Thursday, Apple (AAPL) and traders at Polymarket were giving the tech giant a healthy 92% (‘Yes’) chance of beating the GAAP EPS greater of $1.94 on April 23.

Before the market opens for trading on Friday in the Big Apple, Chevron (CVX), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Estee Lauder Companies (EL), and Moderna (MRNA) will report 2026 Q1 earnings.

If you would like to watch the Q2 2026 results (ending in March) Earnings Report conference call from Apple—a NASDAQ-100 Index component—you can access the company’s investor relations website or the Apple Earnings Call page. The call begins at 5 EDT/2 PDT. Trading Pick: Merck to beat Estimates, Yes 82¢

Click here for the Weekly Earnings Calendar at Polymarket

The 2025-26 Professional Squash Association (PSA) World Championships are set to be held from May 8-18 at Palm Hills Sport Club in Cairo, Egypt. The World Squash Junior Individual Championships will follow and are set for July 20-25 at Niagara-on-the Lake, Canada.

The biggest event in the Squash universe will see 128 of the top players in the world headed to Africa and the Land of the Pyramids next month to compete for the Men’s and Women’s Professional Squash Championships.

According to the PSA Men’s World Rankings from the Professional Squash Association (PSA)—the governing body over the sport much like the ATP or WTS is to Tennis—Mostafa Asal ranks #1 after winning the 2025 PSA Men’s World Squash Championship in Chicago a year ago in May 2025.

At Kalshi, traders in the Men's Pro Squash World Championship Winner are backing Mostafa Asal (79%) over Diego Elias (21%), Mohamed Zakaria (6%) with $165,311 in trading volume on the exchange as of April 26.

And looking at the PSA Women’s World Rankings, it’s Nouran Gohar (#1), Nour ElSherbini (#2), and Hanin El Hammamy (#3) occupying the top three spots with El Hammamy (48%) and ElSherbini (49%) leading the trading in the Women's Pro Squash World Championship Winner.

The reason the top-ranked Gohar won’t be competing in the 2025-26 PSA World Championships is because she is taking a break from the sport after announcing her pregnancy back in November. Gohar said she is planning to return for the 2026-27 PSA season.

The 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup is down to the Semifinals now with two Major League Soccer (MLS) and two Liga MX sides fighting for the silverware and the automatic FIFA Club World Cup and 2026 FIFA International Cup berths that come with surviving the 27-club gauntlet.

The first Semifinal series opens Tuesday with Nashville SC hosting UANL in Leg 1 at GEODIS Park (Grass) in Nashville (FS2/TUDN, 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/5:30 PDT). Leg 2 will be at Monterrey on May 6. At Kalshi, traders are backing Nashville SC (45%) over Tigres UANL (30%) with a Draw at 32%.

The second Semifinal series will begin on Wednesday with LAFC facing Toluca in Leg 1 at BMO Stadium (Bermuda Grass) in Los Angeles (FS2/TUDN, 10:30 EDT/9:30 CDT/7:30 PDT). Leg 2 will be played a week later at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega in Toluca on Wednesday, May 6.

➤Trading Thoughts: This will be the third straight club from California. Paulinho and Toluca have faced (San Diego FC, LA Galaxy) with the Liga MX side outscoring those two 13-5 aggregate in the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals. LAFC ousted Cruz Azul in the Quarters to get here (4-1 aggregate).

Tigres rallied in Leg 2 of its Quarterfinals match to oust FC Cincinnati (5-4 aggregate) while Sam Surridge (7 goals) and Nashville SC edged Lionel Messi and Inter Miami CF and América in four matches that saw a total of just 3 goals. Bring a blanket and get some sleep, brother?

The fact these two Leg 1s are at US (and MLS) sites of quality clubs makes backing the hosts in the three-way markets as the lean. Nashville has been in magnificent form and scoring against them has proved to be hard. The Coyotes have outscored opponents here 9-1. ➤Trading Pick: Nashville SC, 49¢

Click here to trade on the CONCACAF Champions Cup Soccer at Kalshi

At Polymarket in the ‘Balloon d’Or 2026 Winner’ exchange, Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane (38%) led electric teammate Michael Olise (16%), with Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé (13%, 15 goals UCL), Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal (11%), and PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé (6%)— the winner of the 2025 Ballon d’Or.

Arsenal’s Declan Rice (3%), PSG’s Vitinha (3%), and Atlético Madrid’s Julián Alvarez (2%) also saw some ‘Yes’ love with as the longshots in the Ballon’ d’Or 2026 winner market heading into the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Semifinals which kick off this week.

➤Trading Thoughts: This is a fun market, and the way Bundesliga titans Bayern have been playing and scoring makes it easy to see why Kane (12 goals, UCL) and Olise are the leading candidates for this prestigious Soccer silverware. If PSG can knock out Bayern, Dembélé could very well repeat.

Atlético’s Alvarez (9 goals UCL) could be a nice buy now before the Los Rojiblancos series with Arsenal begins Wednesday and PSG’s Vitinha (6 goals UCL) may also be worth a look. For me, it’s between Kane and Alvarez with the next two matches huge. ➤Trading Pick: Harry Kane, Yes 38.6¢

Click here to trade on the ‘Ballon d’Or 2026 Winner ‘ at Polymarket

The first 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Semifinal Leg 1 will be played on Tuesday with Bundesliga icons Bayern Munich facing defending UCL champions Paris Saint-Germain at Parc des Princes (GrassMaster) in Paris, France (Paramount+, 3 EDT/25 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).

The second leg will be played next Wednesday, May 6 at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. In the UEFA Champions League Winner market, Harry Kane and Bayern are the traders top choice (35%) followed by Arsenal (28%), Paris Saint-Germain (25%), and Atlético Madrid (12%).

Soccer traders at Polymarket are behind hosts Paris Saint-Germain (42%) over Bayern Munich (35%) with a Draw trading at 25%. The Total of more than 3.5 goals scored (‘Yes’) was at 50¢ with the Both Teams To Score Prop ‘Yes’ at 72¢ (No 29¢). This series could definitely be a Final.

➤Trading Thoughts: The pace here and in Munich should be torrid, making the Over 3.5 goals a wise approach with BM having Kane, Luis Díaz, Michael Olise, and Serge Gnabry and Les Parisiens having Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha, and Désiré Doué on the attack.

This also means the ‘Yes’ in the Both Teams To Score is smart. Both the Reds and PSG have been going over match Totals themselves a lot lately. Bayern never seems to lose, but if there is a side that can outscore them, it’s PSG. ➤Trading Picks: Over 3.5 Goals 49¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes 72¢

Click here to trade on the PSG vs Arsenal UCL Leg 1 Semifinal at Polymarket

The second 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Semifinal Leg 1 will be played on Wednesday with English Premier League side Arsenal meeting Spanish LALIGA’s Atlético Madrid at Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Grass) in Madrid, Spain (Paramount+, 3 EDT/25 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).

The second leg will be played next Tuesday, May 5 at the Emirates Stadium in London, England. 

In the UEFA Champions League Winner market, Arsenal (28%) has a much better chance of winning this prestigious tournament than Atlético Madrid (12%) with traders liking Bayern Munich (35%) with the Reds opponent Paris Saint-Germain at 25% before Leg 1 on Tuesday.

Soccer traders at Polymarket are actually backing Gabriel Martinelli and visitors Arsenal (37%) over Julián Alvarez and hosts Atlético Madrid (35%) with the Draw trading at 30%. The Total of more than 2.5 goals scored (‘Yes’) was at 44¢ with the Both Teams To Score Prop at 52¢ (No 50¢).

➤Trading Thoughts: Los Rojiblancos always seem to find a way to advance in the UCL tournament, and this time is no different with the LALIGA club getting scoring when needed from Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann, and others. ➤Trading Picks: Atlético Madrid 35¢, Under 2.5, Yes 58¢

Click here to trade on the Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal UCL Leg 1 Semifinal at Polymarket

There is an interesting AL East division game on the MLB schedule this Wednesday when the Blue Jays (12-15, 8-7 at Home) play host to the Red Sox (11-17, 6-9 on Road) in Toronto, Canada (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV, New England Sports Network, Sportsnet, 3:07 ET/2:07 CT/12:07 PT).

Both the Carmines and George Springer and the defending AL champion Blue Jays have gotten off to poor starts this 2025 MLB Regular Season—17-26 combined on April 20—after both spent a considerable amount of money in the offseason in an effort to improve their rosters.

In the Pro Baseball Championprediction market at Kalshi, traders are giving Roman Anthony and the Red Sox just a 2.8% chance of winning the 2026 Fall Classic with Vladimir Guerrero Jr and the Blue Jays at 2.9% on April 20. (The Yankees were at 9.4% and the favorites in the Junior Circuit).

➤Trading Thoughts: The scheduled Probable SPs for this game were LHP Garrett Crochet for Boston and veteran RHP Max Scherzer for Toronto. Analyzing the 2025 MLB H2H grid from ESPN, we see that the Blue Jays went 8-5 vs the Red Sox last season, 3-3 in the 6 in O Canada.

With this game at the Rogers Centre (AstroTurf 3D Xtreme with Dirt Infield), the first instinct lean would be to Toronto until you see that Scherzer is 5-7 lifetime vs Boston with a 5.77 ERA in 14 appearances and has a crappy start this season (1-2, 7.16 ERA).

In the other dugout, Crochett is an impressive 4-1 with a 0.94 ERA in 6 career appearances. Boston may play worse on Turf, but if southpaw Crochett gets the pill on Hump Day, the better idea might be to take the Road team and shop for the best value. ➤Trading Game Pick: Red Sox

Click here to trade on the MLB games and Props at Kalshi

Like its big brother, the UEFA Champions League, the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League season is down to the final four clubs and the Semifinals which will kick off with the two Leg 1s on Thursday (Paramount+) with two English, one German, and one Portuguese club fighting for the silverware.

And we will definitely see one English club in the Final at Beşiktaş Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on May 20 because the EPL’s Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa will play in one 2026 UEL Semifinal with Bundesliga’s SC Freiburg and Portugal Primeira Liga’s Braga meeting in the other. 

At Kalshi, the 2026 Europa League Champion prediction market sees Aston Villa (26%) the favorite among traders followed by Nottingham Forest (21%), SC Freiburg (19%), Braga (12%). This will change when traders realize the Freiburg-Braga winner will have a 50% chance in Turkey.

➤Trading Thoughts: Aston Villa only has one loss all tournament and with elite GK Emiliano Martínez, have registered 3 Clean Sheets in its last 4 games, outscoring Lille and Bologna 10-1, so it’s easy to see why Kalshi traders think Ross Barkley and the Villains will win the Europa League.

The Breisgau-Brasillianer sit in 7th place in the Bundesliga table with a negative GD while Braga is 4th place in the Portugal Primeira Liga with a positive GD. It seems AV and Braga should advance.

The Leg 1’s will see Braga and Nottingham Forest hosting the Leg 1’s on April 30 with SC Freiburg and Aston Villa the two home teams for the decisive Leg 2s, a week later on Thursday, May 7. ➽Trading Pick: Braga to win Europa League, Yes 12¢, Aston Villa, No 58¢

Click here to trade on the 2026 Europa League Champion at Kalshi

The Mariners (14-15, 10-7 at Home) welcome the Royals (11-17, 2-10 on Road) to T-Mobile Park (Kentucky Bluegrass/Perennial Ryegrass blend) in Seattle on Friday night for an AL battle of teams who probably thought they’d get off to better starts (Apple TV, 9:40 EDT/8:40 CDT/6:40 PDT).

This will be Game 1 of a 3-game series and the teams will play three more times in this 2026 MLB Regular Season with Cal Raleigh and the Mariners facing Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals at Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City for a 3-game series later this month (May 22-24).

In the Pro Baseball Champion prediction market at Kalshi, traders are giving the Mariners a solid 8% chance of winning the 2026 World Series with the Royals only trading at 1.3% on April 20.

➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, the Royals went 3-4 against the Royals with Kansas City going 1-2 at Seattle (13 RF-19 RA) and 2-2 at Home (13 RF-14 RA). But the big statistical thing to look at if trading this game or series in Seattle is the Royals horrible Record on the Road heading in.

KC started the season 2-12 on the Road, losing 6 straight away heading into this 6-game West Coast Road Trip which started in Oakland on Tuesday. With Bubic, Wacha, or Lugo possible SPs for the Royals, a low-scoring game may also be in the cards. ➤Trading Game Picks: Mariners, Under

 ➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the Special Forces soldier arrested for insider trading in the Maduro apprehension, President Trump being down on prediction markets while owning one, Minnesota and Wisconsin’s issues with PMS, Who will Be on the Cover of Madden NFL 37, the MLB AL and NL Manager of the Year Awards, three EPL match previews and a preview of the NASCAR Texas Würth 400 . Thank you for reading and subscribing.