The year 2025 was another evolutionary year for Prediction Markets with Polymarket and Kalshi becoming part of the lexicon, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan being featured on 60 Minutes, and 29-year-old Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes becoming the world’s youngest self-made billionaire.
And we can expect 2026 to be just as interesting of a year for Prediction Markets with many partnerships between the two major players in the space (Polymarket, Kalshi) and financial (Robinhood), legal sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel), and even media (CNN, CNBC) taking form.
But like with AI as a consumer and the Common Man, it’s probably best to look at PMs with a healthy degree of skepticism. Polymarket is still in the midst of its relaunch and rolling out access to users in the US via a waitlist system and you see many traders on Kalshi complaining about technical delays, website crashes and not being able to cancel orders due to high volume.
One cool thing to keep an eye on is the National Hockey League (NHL) who in October signed multiyear partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket. While other major pro sports leagues like the NFL, MLB, and the NFL have stayed away because of the controversy between the similarity between PMs and sports betting, the NHL is the first of the four major sports to embrace PMs.
There are many reasons for traders and sports fans to look forward to this brand new year including the 2026 Winter Olympics from Milan, Italy (February 6-22), Super Bowl LX from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (February 8), a UFC fight at the White House (June 14), and the much-anticipated 2016 FIFA World Cup from North America (June 11-July 19).
We may also see a Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding in 2026. And another good thing about 2026 is that many major holidays fall on either a Friday (New Year’s Day, Christmas) or on a Saturday (Valentine’s Day, Fourth of July, Halloween). Enjoy and best of luck with your trading in 2026.
Logan Paul Pokémon Illustrator Card Sale Has a Market
YouTube sensation and sometimes boxer Logan Paul announced last week that he would be holding an auction in January to sell his rare PSA grade 10 Pokémon Illustrator card, with estimates of a $7 million to $12 million sale anticipated for the Holy Grail of Pokémon cards.
Polymarket has a market for traders interested in predicting the price this card—which Paul bought for $5.3 million in 2021—will fetch, with >$4m (92%), >$5m (89%), >$6m (85%), >$7m (74%), >8m (63%), >10m (37%), and <$15m (12%) all garnering positive interest as of Dec. 30.
Worth more than gold, Paul also had a PSA Grade 9 Pokémon Illustrator card and traded it. There were only 39-41 of these cards produced, all given to prize winners of an illustration contest in CoroCoro Comic magazine in Japan in 1988.
What Will be the Highest Grossing Movie in 2026?
Polymarket already has the ‘Highest Grossing Movie in 2026’ market up for trading and fantasy action titles are dominating with Spider-Man: Brand New Day (32%), The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (31%), Avengers: Doomsday (17%), and Toy Story 5 (8%) leading the way.
Other anticipated 2026 movie releases with 5% or less at the Polymarket exchange include The Odyssey (4%), Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (5%), Michael (2%), Dune: Messiah (2%), Jumanji 3 (1%), Project Hail Mary (1%), and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: It’s too early to back any of these, no matter what the price or potential return, although the first two favorites should be in the running all 2026. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to be released in the USA on July 31, 2026, giving it six months of earning time.
The animated sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie, the upcoming The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is scheduled to come out in the United States on April 3, 2026. Trading Pick: None
Trailer—Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Will There be a Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce Wedding in 2026?
There is a time and a place for everything, and everything points to American songstress Taylor Swift and NFL player Travis Kelce finally tying the knot in 2026. Dating since 2023, the popular couple announced their engagement in August of 2025 on a joint Instagram post.
The two big things seemingly in the way of the 36-year-old Swift and the 36-year-old Kelce were Swift’s world tour and Kelce’s NFL career. Well, the Eras Tour ended over a year ago (December 8, 2024) and the Chiefs were eliminated from the NFL Playoffs two weeks ago in a sad, sad season.
Eleven-time Pro Bowler Kelce is also considering retirement and the two have to be sick and tired of answering the same old questions about getting married, settling down, and starting a family. And if they want to be parents by age 40, they need to get started, right?
➤Trading Thoughts: The (‘Yes’) masses seem to be right in this market, with PM traders giving Swift-Kelce an 82% chance of getting married before January 1, 2027. If there is any time to get down in this market before it’s too late, that time is now. Trading Pick: Yes 82¢
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Market a Wide Open One
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Venezuelan María Corina Machado, a member of the National Assembly (2011-2014) and the courageous leader of the opposition to the controversial administrations of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro in the South American nation.
So who do Polymarket traders like to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as we enter the new year?
The usual suspect and perpetual award-seeker Donald Trump (16%) leads the early pack in this market followed by UNRWA (10%), the International Court of Justice (8%), Yulia Navalnaya (7%), Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani (6%), Greta Thunberg (5%), Ahmed al-Sharaa (4%), Pope Leo XIV (4%), Volodymyr Zelenskyy (3%), and UN Secretary General António Guterres (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: This market will take 12 months to resolve so beware of that if getting any early positions. It is impossible to tell what will happen in 2026, but a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war and a pursuit of peace will no doubt continue no matter what the odds.
Getting 100 ‘Yes’ shares each for three peacemakers for under $14 seems a decent stance to offer The Prediction Report readers and then waiting to see what happens in the first half of 2026 seems wise. Trading Picks: Yulia Navalnaya, Yes 7¢, Pope Leo XIV, Yes 3.6¢, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Yes 3¢
Best Supporting Actress Oscars Winner Category
The 98th Academy Awards is the belle of the awards season ball, and the Best Supporting Actress award is always an exciting and wide open in the evening and often one with a surprise winner.
At Polymarket, traders are investing in Teyana Taylor (48%) for her role as Perfidia Beverly Hills in the hit Paul Thomas Anderson film One Battle After Another which may see fellow actors Benico del Toro and Sean Penn garner a Best Supporting Actor nomination.
Following Taylor are Amy Madigan (26%) for her role as Aunt Gladys in the horror movie Weapons, Inga Ibsdotter-Lilleas (15%) and Elle Fanning (2%) for their roles in Sentimental, and Ariana Grande (5%) for her role in Wicked: For Good.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, Zoë Saldaña (Emilia Perez) won this award, and after seeing Taylor and her interactions with Penn, del Toro, and Leonardo DiCaprio, it’s easy to see why traders are backing Taylor and Perfidia Beverly Hills. Trading Pick: Teyana Taylor, Yes 50¢
Conan O’Brien will again host the 98th Academy Awards which will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on Sunday, March 15, 2026 (ABC, Hulu, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT). Nominations for the Oscars will be announced on January 22.
Which NFL Team Will Draft a QB in the First Round?
QB is always the most important position on a football team, and finding and grooming at least one good QB is often a problem for NFL teams. Ask the Raiders who have seen Jimmy Garropolo, Aiden O’Connell, Desmond Ridder, Geno Smith, and Kenny Pickett behind center only to lose.
In its last 29 games, Las Vegas is 4-24-1 and Sin City’s pro football team had won as many games in 447 days and the LV’s women’s pro basketball team had won in 8 days the last time they played, winning the WNBA championship. Quarterbacks matter. As do their backups.
At Polymarket, traders can invest on what teams they think might select a QB in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft and the numbers are very lopsided with 10 teams trading above the 50% chance mark on December 27. The problem? There won’t be more than four QBs taken in Round 1 and this isn’t a particularly good year for QBs coming out of college.
The latest 2028 NFL Mock Draft from ESPN and Field Yates sees just three QBs going in the first 32 picks: Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (#1), Dante Moore, Oregon (#2), and Ty Simpson, Alabama (#31). But you need to ask yourself what teams really need a young QB. And the list is long.
Traders tab the Jets (60%) and Dolphins (57%) as the top teams in that market with the Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa experiments over in NY and Miami. Next are those Steelers (54%) followed by the Raiders (53%), Saints (50%), Seahawks (50%), Browns (50%), Colts (50%), Cardinals (50%), and Rams (50%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Giants, Raiders, and Titans are fighting it out for the worst record, but NY (Jaxson Dart) and Tennessee (Cam Ward) just took QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft, so the Giants may entertain a trade with someone like the Jets, Seahawks, or Colts who really need a young QB.
The Raiders (Yes 93¢), Steelers (95¢), and Colts (95¢) are great choices, but you can see the ‘Yes’ money has become too pricey making possible ‘No’ positions a logical approach. One team would be the Browns who took two QBs. Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) and Sheddeur Sanders (Colorado) in Round 1 last year. Trading Pick: Cleveland Browns, No 93¢
Panthers at Tampa Bay in Huge NFC South Duel on Saturday
The NFC South serves up a delightful NFL Week 18 matchup with first-place Carolina (8-8, 3-5 Road) facing Baker Mayfield and second-place Tampa Bay (7-9, 3-4 Home) from Raymond James Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Tampa, Florida on Sunday afternoon (ABC, ESPN, 4:30 EST/3:30 CST/1:20 PST).
The winner here will win the NFC South and advance to the NFC Playoffs as the #4-seed.
In NFL Week 17 play, the Buccaneers were at Miami in an interconference Sunshine State battle which saw the Dolphins prevail while QB Bryce Young and the Panthers hosted the red-hot Seahawks in their last home game of the 2025 NFL Regular Season on Sunday and fell, 27-10.
NFL traders at Kalshi like the host Buccaneers here (57%) over QB Bryce Young, RB Rico Dowdle and the Panthers (43%) with Tampa Bay wins by over 2.5 points at 52% and the Over 42.5 points scored trading at 47% on Tuesday, four days before kickoff in the Sunshine State.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two met in Week 16 at Carolina (3-2 vs NFC South), the Buccaneers (2-3 vs NFC South)—the division winners last season—won 23-20 to make this Week 18 game even more important with only one NFC South team advancing on to the NFL Playoffs.
Lifetime, Carolina is 26-24-0 vs TB but the Bucs are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, winning the last 5 straight by an average of 16.2 PPG. But TB has lost its last 8 games ATS and all 8 of Carolina's wins this season have come as an underdog. The markets in this game are really hard and the site may matter. Trading Pick: Buccaneers Game Winner, Yes 58¢
Seahawks at 49ers on Saturday in NFC West Thriller
Two of the five best teams in the NFL, San Francisco (12-4, 4-2 Home) and Seattle (12-3, 6-1 Road) for a shot at the NFC West crown and playoff positioning from Levi’s Stadium (Bermuda Grass) in Santa Clara, California on Saturday in a must-see showdown (ABC, ESPN, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
The winner of this Regular Season game of the year candidate from Frisco will earn the #1 seed in the NFC and win the NFC West while the loser will drop to the #4- or #5-seed. So everything is at stake in this Saturday night thriller between two of the best six teams in the NFL.
The Niners (4-1 vs NFC West) have been on a roll of late (W6), but then again so have Sam Darnold and the Seahawks (W6). At Kalshi, traders were split (on December 30) between Brock Purdy and San Francisco (50%) over Seattle (50%) with San Francisco wins by over 2.5 points at 44% and Over 49.5 points scored at 52%.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two teams collided in Seattle in Week 1, SF rallied to beat the Seahawks, 17-13 in a game that saw the hosts struggle on offense, with Darnold throwing for just 150 yards, Seattle having just 230 Total Yards and going 3-for-10 on Third Down. This will not do.
With this game huge for all Postseason teams in the NFC, expect the Niners defense (21.3 PPG, #9) so be just as stingy but the Seahawks defense (18.6 PPG, #2) has been incredible this season and a big reason why this team is 6-1 on the road.
Expect the SF offense to go through RB Christian McCaffrey while the Seattle offense will look to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,637 receiving yards, 104 receptions, 10 TD) to try to put points on the scoreboard at The Field of Jeans. This will be a classic. Trading Pick: Over 49.5 points scored, No 51¢
Bears Welcoming Lions to Chicago in Week 18 on Sunday
QB Caleb Williams, RB Andre Swift and the Bears (11-5, 6-1 Home) open the doors of iconic Soldier Field (Bermuda Grass) to face the Lions (8-8, 3-5 Road) on Sunday afternoon in an NFC North game the Bears would like to win for a few strategic reasons (FOX, 4:25 EST/1:25 PST).
The Bears have been one of the real surprises this season—after losing 32-21 to these Lions in Detroit in Week 2—and have been good in the Windy City and in winning late. In Week 17, Chicago lost at SF while Detroit lost at Minnesota to see its Postseason hopes die on Christmas.
On Tuesday, NFL traders at Kalshi were backing Chicago (58%) over Detroit (41%) with Chicago wins by over 2.5 points at 52% and Over 50.5 points scored currently trading at 49%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Former Lions OC Ben Johnson has been great in Chitown, but the Lions are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this rivalry, including two wins at Soldier Field on Lake Shore Drive, the first (2022) snapping a 13-game road losing streak.
Motivation is the thing to look at here with the Bears in position to possibly be the #2 seed in the NFC in the NFL Playoffs. With this Week 18 and Detroit done, the Lions may not want to risk injury to guys like Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St Brown.Trading Pick: Chicago Game Winner, Yes 61¢
Texans Hosting Colts in AFC South Showdown on Sunday
On Sunday, the Texans (11-5, 6-2 Home) head to Indianapolis to face the Colts (8-8, 2-5 Road) from NRG Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in an AFC South game streaking Houston (W9) needs for playoff positioning (CBS, 1 EST/12 CST/10 PST).
In Week 17, Houston defeated the host Chargers on Saturday to clinch a Playoff berth with its 8th straight win while Indianapolis and Old Man Rivers lost to Jacksonville in an AFC South clash in Indianapolis as Travis Lawrence and the division-winning Jaguars won their 7th straight game.
The Texans (4-1 vs AFC South) have been the best defensive team in the NFL (16.6 PPG) while the Colts started 8-2 before losing 5 straight in a Jekyll & Hyde season. Kalshi traders like Houston (82%) over Indianapolis (18%) with Houston wins by over 10.5 points at 47% and Over 39.5 points scored at 49%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Texans have been brilliant since Week 10 (7-0) while RB Jonathan Taylor and the Colts have gone 0-6 over the same span, including a 20-16 home loss to Houston. Streaks matter in sports as does Wild Card position. Trading Pick: Houston Game Winner, Yes 84¢
Ravens at Steelers in NFL Week 18 Classic on Sunday
The inspired Ravens (8-8, 3-6 Road) face ageless Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers (9-7, 5-3 Home) from Acrisure Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in an AFC North clash only important to the hosts for AFC Playoff positioning on Sunday (Peacock, 8:20 EST/5:20 PST).
The winner here will take the AFC North and the #4-seed in the AFC Playoffs while the loser will be eliminated from the Postseason. This one will be the last game of the 2025 NFL Regular Season. Talk about going out with a bang...
The Steelers (3-1 vs AFC North) have delivered Head Coach Mike Tomlin another winning season but we’ll see if the Black and Yellow can finally win one in the Postseason ... if they get there. At Kalshi traders like Baltimore (62%) over Pittsburgh (38%) with Baltimore wins by over 3.5 points at 48% and Over 40.5 points scored at 54%.
➤Trading Thoughts: With Rodgers delivering, Heinz Field is suddenly a fun place to be again and even though the homeboys may be more intent then not getting hurt here, pride is always a big thing but it’s hard to imagine putting Rodgers out there too long with the Playoffs on the horizon.
When these two met earlier this season in Crab City, Pittsburgh was impressive in a 27-22 win and the Steelers won the last meeting here (18-16) despite losing 2 of 3 at Baltimore last season (RS, WC). This one could be very boring. Trading Pick: Over 40.5 Points, No 49¢
