No sports tournament separates the wheat from the chaff faster than the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament. Each March and April is a mathematical and pachinko-like ride through the brackets from 68 to 64 to 32 to the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight to the Final Four to the Championship Game where the strongest two college hoops teams square off.
Last year, the drama was taken from the Big Dance when all four #1 seeds in the Men’s tournament made it all the way to the Final Four where Houston beat Duke (60-57) and eventual champions Florida eliminated SEC rivals Auburn (70-67) in two close national Semifinal games.
The Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday, March 26 and Friday, March 27 with the two Regional Semifinals in the East, South, Midwest, and West regions. The winners of those eight games will advance on to the Elite Eight round on Saturday, March 28 and Sunday, March 29.
So from the start of the Play-in games on Tuesday, March 17 to the completion of the Elite Eight on Sunday, March 29—12 days—the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament will have shed 64 teams and as history always reminds us, the winner will again come from a Power Five conference.
Will Polymarket Announce its Token Before May?
The Polymarket airdrop will come sooner or later, and later is the sentiment traders at Myriad Markets are displaying in the ‘Will Polymarket Announce its Token Before May?’ market where ‘No’ was at 77% with ‘Yes’ at 23% in the Crypto category at the incentive-based decentralized prediction market platform.
The prediction market giants have been teasing a “POLY” airdrop for some time, with company CEO Shayne Coplan and crew gearing up to complete its somewhat slow-moving relaunch into the US market after being banned in the United States in January 2022.
Things like token structure, tokenomics, and the airdrop to Polymarket users are still being ironed out and reports indicate the company is developing its own Ethereum Layer 2 service network (POLY) as it continues to migrate away from Polygon.
➤Trading Thoughts: The calendar is often the friend of the ‘No’ trader in many of these speculative PM polymarkets, and that is the case here as if the re-launch expected for late 2025 took so long, then the POLY airdrop will also come later than desired. Trading Pick: No, 77¢
State of Arizona Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi
On March 17, the attorney general in the the state of Arizona Kris Mayes [D] filed the first-ever criminal charges in the US against a prediction market, charging Kalshi of running an illegal gambling operation in the Grand Canyon State, in violation of state laws. Here we go again.
The case, filed in Maricopa County Superior Court, claims “Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” said Mayes in a statement.
No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow
Elisabeth Diana, a Kalshi spokesman, said in a statement to CNN the Arizona case was “paper thin” and reiterated the position that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the federal government are the only bodies who should be governing prediction markets.
“States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it,” Diana added, claiming Kalshi is “different from what sportsbooks and casinos offer” and “should not be overseen by a patchwork of inconsistent state laws.”
DEATH BETS Act Introduced in the House of Representatives
Also on March 17, Rep. Mike Levin (CA-49) introduced the companion bill of the DEATH BETS Act (HR 7942), which “would explicitly prohibit any CFTC registered entity from listing any contract that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.”
Over in the Senate, Senator Adam Schiff leads the charge for some common sense change.
“No one should make a profit betting on war and death through prediction markets. While federal law prohibits prediction market contracts on terrorism, war, and assassination, there are still loopholes that allow traders to profit off them,” said Rep. Levin.
“The DEATH BETS Act would stop a system that allows individuals to make money off predicting if service members will be put in harm’s way. It is completely unacceptable. I thank Sen. Schiff for his partnership on this bill and look forward to it moving through the legislative process.”
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) presently has the authority to prohibit war, terrorism, and assassination contracts from being listed if they are determined by the Commission to be contrary to the public interest under the power of the Commodity Exchange Act.
With CFTC Chair Michael Selig rewriting the rules governing prediction markets, expect markets and contracts created and trading in these kinds of sensitive and literal life-and-death contracts to be banned. Nobody should be profiting from or pulling for another's demise to simply make a dime.
Who Will Win Top Chef Season 23? at Polymarket
The 23rd season of Top Chef—Top Chef: Carolinas—premiered on March 9 on Bravo with the popular reality cooking show saw 16 contestants head into the elimination format staple filmed in Charlotte, NC and Greenville, SC. The show brought back the Last Chance Kitchen format.
At Polymarket, traders can trade on the who they think the winner will (or won’t) be, and after two episodes, the people are strongly betting on Rhoda Magbitang (87%) after the Kailua-Kona, Hawai’i resident won the first two challenges and getting rave reviews from the show’s judges.
Following are Oscar Diaz (6%, +5%), Sherry Cardoso (5%), Nana Araba Wilmot (5%), Sieger Bayer (5%), Brandon Dearden (5%), Jasatrap “Jassi” Bindra (5%), Laurence Louie (5%), Anthony Jones (4%), and Jonathan Dearden, Brittany Cochran, Jennifer Lee Jackson, and Duyen Ha all with 1%.
Day Anaїs Joseph (Week 1) and Jaspratrap “Jassi” Bindra (Week 2) were already eliminated. You can catch replays of Top Chef: Carolinas on the Peacock streaming service.
➤Trading Thoughts: Like with Survivor 50, the fun gets stolen from watching this popular reality TV show because the prediction market has given a contestant a massive chance to to win despite the show being zero, one, or two episodes in. Trading on taped things will always be problematic.
A fan of this show since Day One, the first two Top Chef: Carolinas (Tuesdays, 9:30 EDT/PDT) episodes were wonderful. There are a number of talented chefs competing this time around, and yes, Magbitang was magnificent and had the dream start. Trading Pick: Rhoda Marbitang, Yes 90¢
NCAAB Men’s Tournament MOP Player Award at Kalshi
There are a number of extremely talented young basketball players competing in the Men’s Big Dance this year, and at Kalshi, traders can predict the outcome in the ‘Men’s College Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player?’ market, a list chock full o’ 2026 NBA Draft prospects.
Leading the pack, as expected, is Duke F Cameron Boozer (17%), followed by Michigan stud F Yaxel Lendeborg (13%), Arizona’s Brayden Burries (9%), Michigan big man Aday Mara (7%), Arizona G Jaden Bradley (6%), and Houston floor general Kingston Flemings (6%).
Also seeing ‘Yes’ action, Purdue’s Braden Smith (4%), Houston’s Emanuel Sharp (4%), Arizona’s Koa Peat (4%), Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr (4%), Arkansas sparkplug Darius Acuff Jr (3%), MSU G Jeremy Fears (3%), Illinois G Keaton Wagler (3%), and Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a market dependent on which player can be effective each game while trying to get his team to play in all six possible Big Dance games and why you see so much money on players from Arizona, Michigan, and Houston. Looking at who teams may face next is the key.
Duke will need to oust St John’s on Friday night for current favorite Boozer to stay in MOP race, while Michigan will need to beat a high-flying Alabama side for Lendeborg, Mara, and Johnson Jr to stay in the picture. And the Wolverines and Arizona may meet in the Final Four. What to do?
The Blue Devils and Wildcats could meet to crown a new champ, and if so, Arizona’s Burries, Bradley, Peat, and Krivas may be why, but none stand out as a superstar. Boozer may benefit from his supporting cast and win MOP. Trading Picks: Cameron Boozer, Yes16¢, Darius Acuff Jr, Yes 3¢
Sweet 16: #1 Duke vs #5-St John’s in East Semis on Friday
The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship tips off on Friday night with a solid Sweet 16 and East Regional Semifinals showdown between #1-seed Duke (34-2) and #5-seed St John’s (30-6) from the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC on Friday night (CBS, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT).
Cameron Boozer and the Big Dance’s top seed, Duke, got this point by beating Siena in the First Round and TCU in the Second Round while Zuby Ejiofor and St John’s defeated Northern Iowa in the First Round and Kansas and his former team in the Second Round on Sunday. Hallelujah!
College Basketball traders at Kalshi are backing ACC icons Duke (72%) over St John’s (29%) at Capital One Arena as the Big Dance quickly pares down from 16 teams to the Elite Eight. The Total was at 141.5 the night before tipoff, when all through the house, not a creature was stirring...
➤Trading Thoughts: The Red Storm—in their first Sweet 18 since 1999—have won 21 of 22 games heading here for renowned Head Coach Rick Pitino but they are playing the tournament’s top-ranked team and a squad in Duke with only 2 losses (Texas Tech, North Carolina).
Lifetime, these two programs have met 22 times with the Blue Devils going 16-6 vs St John’s, with Duke going 9-2 the last 11, including the last meeting, a 91-61 thumping at Cameron Indoor Stadium back in 2018-19 where we were all young and innocent and not being watched by the AI.
The lean here is to ACC legends Duke, who have a magnificent starting five in Cameron Boozer, twin brother Cayden and a quiet and electric triumvirate that can win you a championship in Maliq Brown, Dame Sarr, and Isaiah Evans. Trading Picks: Duke To Win, Yes 72¢
Sweet 16: #1 Michigan vs # 4 Alabama in Midwest Semis
The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship sees a sexy Sweet 16 and Midwest Regional Semifinals game between SEC heavy and #4-seed Alabama (25-9) and Big Ten team and #1-seed Michigan (33-3) from the United Center in Chicago on Friday night (truTV, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT).
Alabama advanced to this point by beating Hofstra in the First Round and Texas Tech in the Second Round while Michigan defeated Howard in its opener and Steph Blurry (Robbie Avila) and Saint Louis in the Second Round.
College Basketball traders at Kalshi are backing Michigan (82%) over Alabama (19%) at The Madhouse on Madison. The winner here will face the winner of the Iowa State vs Tennessee game later in the Midwest Region Championship Game and a chance to head to the coveted Final Four.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Crimson Tide always seem to make it to the Sweet 16, but Bama caught some breaks facing Hofstra in their opener and a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech team ripe for the picking. This tall and talented Michigan team will be a test and expect this game to be high-scoring.
The Wolverines have a budding NBA star in Yaxel Lendeborg (14.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and with fellow bigs Aday Mara (12.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Illinois transfer Morez Johnson Jr (13.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and a backcourt with Elliot Cadeau (10.1 PPG) and Nimari Burnett (8.5) turning the screws.
Lifetime, Michigan and Alabama have surprisingly only played once, with the Crimson Tide going 1-0 and winning 68-66 on a Neutral site back in 2009-10 when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading in the 3¢ to 30¢ range, Miley Cyrus was turning 18 and a pound of coffee cost just between $3.85-$3.91.
The point spread here opened up (Michigan minus) 10.5, and that’s an awful lot for a Sweet 16 game against a team that can score points quick like Alabama (91.7 PPG, #3). It seems the Wolverines will win in a shootout, but by double-digits? Trading Picks: Alabama +9.5, Yes 52¢
Sweet 16: #3 MSU vs #2 UConn in East Region Semi Friday
The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship carries on with a great Sweet 16 and East Regional Semis game between #3-seed Michigan State (27-7) and #2-seed Connecticut (31-5) from the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC on Friday (CBS, 9:45 EDT/8:45 CDT/6:45 PDT).
Michigan State advanced to this point by beating North Dakota State in the First Round and Louisville in the Second Round while Connecticut ousted Furman in its opener and UCLA in the Second Round. The winner gets the Duke-St John’s winner in the Elite Eight.
College Basketball traders at Kalshi are backing 2023 and 2024 national champions UConn (54%) over Michigan State (47%) at Capital One Arena in the Chinatown area of our nation’s capital with the Total (points) trading at 135.5.
➤Trading Thoughts: Spartans HC Tom Izzo always finds a way, and with sparkplug G Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.3 PPG, 9.4 APG) and a frontcourt with C Carson Cooper (11.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG), F Jaxon Kohler (12.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG), and F Coen Carr (12.0 RPG, 5.5 RPG), this March is no different.
Lifetime, Sparty is 4-3 vs UConn, winning the last 2 after losing 3 in a row with the last 6 games (7 now) all being played on a neutral site. But that was Then and this is Now. Then doesn’t matter. Now does. Now always matters. Like good coffee, paying the cable bill and toilet paper matter.
Now both are playing as good as they have this season, and at the right time. Oddsmakers opened UConn as the slight favorites here (-1.5) and that seems wise as this is too close to call and not a Sweet 16 I feel comfortable making a pick on here. I will just enjoy it on TV. Trading Picks: None
Sweet 16: #6 Tennessee vs #2 Iowa State in Midwest Semi
The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship bounces on with this Sweet 16 and Midwest Regional Semifinals game between #6-seed Tennessee (24-11) and #2-seed Iowa State (29-7) from the United Center in Chicago on Friday night (truTV, 10:10 EDT/9:10 CDT/7:10 PDT).
Tennessee got here by beating play-in game-winner Miami-Ohio in the First Round and Virginia in the Second Round while Iowa State advanced by eliminating Tennessee State in the First Round and rallying to beat Kentucky in the Second Round despite star Joshua Jefferson getting hurt.
College Basketball traders at Kalshi like Iowa State (63%) over Tennessee (38%) at The House That Jordan Built in this last Sweet 16 game of the 2026 Big Dance. The winner here will advance on and play the winner of the Michigan-Alabama game in the Windy City earlier in the evening.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Volunteers are 2-1 lifetime vs the Cyclones, winning the last 2 meetings, but none with any meaningful historical weight to help handicapping this one. Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Tennessee will look to surprise here, but Iowa State isn’t Tennessee State or Kentucky.
A key here if trading will be the health and availability of Cyclones key cog Joshua Jefferson, a Las Vegas kid (Liberty HS) who hurt his knee on Sunday and was sidelined for the 2H and had an MRI on Monday. Click on the provided link on his name for an update but expect him to play on Friday.
With or without Jefferson, I like Milan Momcilovic (17.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG), Tamin Lipsey (12.9 PPG) and the Big 12 Conference side here, to me the strongest conference in the land this year with #2 Arizona, #5 Houston, and #6 Iowa State. Trading Picks: Iowa State To Win, Yes 63¢
USA Hosting Belgium in International Friendly Saturday
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Atlanta is the site of a FIFAInternational Friendly soccer match between the USA and Belgium on Saturday afternoon (TNT, truTV, Telemundo, Universo, HBO Max, Peacock, 3:30 EDT/2:30 CDT/1:30 MDT/12:30 PDT).
Soccer traders at Polymarket are behind Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Belgium (42%) over Folarin Balogun and the United States (32%) with a Draw trading at 27%. The Over 2.5 goals is priced at 57¢ with the Under 2.5 goals priced at 47¢.
Belgium is 3-0-1 in the four series meetings, outscoring the USMNT, 7-6 in the process. The last meeting came back in the 2014 FIFA World Cup where the Red Devils beat the Red, White and Blue, 2-1 in Salvador, Brazil as Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne scored for the Belgians.
➤Trading Thoughts: With the 2026 FIFA World Cup coming this Summer, this is just a tuneup during the international break and it’s hard to imagine either squad (or Head Coach) caring about winning here. Get some players some minutes and stay healthy is the mantra. Trading Pick: None
Fundora Defends WBC Super Welterweight Belt Saturday
Defending weight class champion Sebastian Fundora puts his belt on the line as he tries to defend his WBC Super Welterweight title against former unified welterweight champion Keith Thurman at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas on Saturday night (PBC on Prime Video PPV, 8 ET/5 PT).
Billed as GLOVES OFF: Fundora vs Thurman, the much-anticipated boxing matchup in the welterweight (154 pounds) division will also see Yoenis Tellez taking on Brian Mendoza in the night’s Co-Main event on The Strip in Sin City.
At Myriad Markets, Sebastian Fundora (77%) is the trader’s choice in this scheduled 12-round bout against the 37-year-old Keith Thurman (23%).
Sebastian “The Towering Inferno” Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KOs) poses a problem for opponents with his height (6-6), but Keith “One Time” Thurman (36-1-0, 23 KOs) returns to the ring after various injuries and a layoff and is the expected underdog in sportsbooks and prediction markets alike.
➤Trading Thoughts: The 28-year-old champion Fundora has just one loss (Brian Mendoza, 2023) and the Florida native has reeled off 3 straight wins at the Junior Welterweight weight class, while veteran Thurman’s only loss came to legend Manny Pacquiao in 2019.
The problem here is the long layoff for Thurman since his last fight, over four years ago now (2022) so we will possibly be witnessing the definition of “ring rust” live in this one. Fundora predicted that he’ll beat Thurman in four rounds. This could be good. Trading Pick: Sebastian Fundora, Yes 77c
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, out Tuesday, we’ll look at the seemingly never-ending battle between Kalshi and the state of Nevada, Polymarket teaming up with MLB, Kalshi and Polymarket announcing insider trading guardrails, the Senate’s bill to ban prediction markets, UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals futures, ‘Who Will Have the Worst Record in the NBA?’, AL and NL Central Winners, and the Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather boxing match scheduled later this year. Thanks for subscribing.