Prediction market giants Polymarket has confirmed the airdrop of a native token once the platform completes its US regulatory relaunch. Polymarket Chief Operating Officer (CMO) Michael Modabber officially unveiled the plans for the token, likely to be named $POLY.
Polymarket’s parent firm Blockratize Inc. applied for the US trademarks “POLY” and “$POLY” with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) on February 4, 2026 which often precedes the launch of a digital token (or coin) as seen with Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple.
The filings cover token, software, and platform services tied to financial and cryptocurrency markets for the New York City-based company. “There will be a token, there will be an airdrop,” Modabber said. But when can we expect this token airdrop from Polymarket?
Once the official US regulatory relaunch is completed, expect the Polymarket airdrop. With the exchange being the world’s largest decentralized exchange and having so much institutional money (Intercontinental Exchange-NYSE) poured in, expect this to be the biggest airdrop of 2026.
Airdrops (in crypto) or token drops are the free (usually) distribution of digital tokens or coins to specific wallet addresses to reward the platform’s earliest and frequent users or done to promote new projects by boosting engagement. Polymarket also offers Airdrops markets for trading.
➤To create an account: If you don’t already have a Polymarket account and want to prepare for the POLY airdrop, you can do so by creating an account at Polymarket.com, enter your email address and then follow all of the “Magic Link” instructions sent to you to open a secure account.
Or if you already have an Ethereum-compatible wallet (Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask), you can connect directly via your crypto wallet on the Polymarket website. Once in, create a user name and then fund your account using USDC—the funds used on the Polygon network for trading.
Connecting your new Polymarket account to your X (Twitter) account and trading consistently in different categories is also a good idea to get the most rewards from the eventual $POLY airdrop. With the US relaunch still chugging, who knows when, but all the signs are there for the airdrop.
Some Polymarket News Briefs
Polymarket announced a partnership with Substack on Wednesday, February 18 which will allow the platform’s users to integrate the prediction data from Polymarket into their content on the publishing platform. “Prediction markets are an emerging technology that aggregates real-time estimates of what will happen in the future,” Substack co-founder Chris Best wrote on Substack.
Polymarket, last valued at $9 billion, also made its second official acquisition, buying fresh Y Combinator-backed prediction market API startup Dome on Thursday, February 19 in a deal with undisclosed terms. The company purchased the US-licensed derivatives exchange QCEX launching Polymarket’s reentrance into the US market after the CFTC previously barred the exchange.
The global cryptocurrency-based prediction market giant Polymarket also made some news by creating a temporary 5-day pop-up grocery store in NYC’s Greenwich Village—Polymarket is headquartered in Manhattan—as a promotional event with limited hours and food supplies.
Called ‘The Polymarket,’ the store was open from February 12, 2026 to February 15, 2026 and depending on your level of cynicism, the PR stunt was either mocking or showing support for new Big Apple Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposal to have city-run grocery stores. We live in a movie.
Robinhood Traders: Fed Maintaining Rate in March
The wisdom of the masses at Robinhood think that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain the target federal funds rate range at their next scheduled meeting in Washington, DC on March 17-18, 2026.
Contracts in the Fed Maintains Rate selection were trading at 96¢ with Cut 25bps at 4¢ and Cut >25bps at 2¢. The current federal funds rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%. In December 2025, the Fed lowered the rate 25-basis points for a third straight reduction in the final quarter of the year.
The Fed holds eight meetings a year to regulate monetary policy in the US. The first meeting of the year was held in January with the FOMC leaving rates in that 3.5%-3.7% range. Using PM’s as an informational tool in this instance works with investors assuming the Fed won’t change things being applied to their own trading
The next FOMC meeting will come April 28-29, followed by June 16-17 (Includes Summary of Economic Projections), July 28029, September 15-16 (Includes Summary of Economic Projections), October 27-28, and December 8-9 (Includes Summary of Economic Projections).
Looking at Polymarket and Kalshi in the same market, we find 95% and 94% ‘No Change’ respectively so if Fed Head Jerome Powell announces any change to the rate in March it will be a huge surprise to everyone.
Will FDA Approve a Psychedelic For Med Use by 2027?
Kalshi, traders have been involved in the ‘Will the FDA Approve any Psychedelic Substance for Medical Use Before 2027?’ market with prediction market investors giving the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) a 27.2% chance of officially approving any psychedelic for medical use this calendar year.
This Tech & Science category market at Kalshi was reached as high as 63.6% at open on July 17, 2025 but had retreated much to a low of 30.4% on February 18, 2026, before falling to this new low. What does this mean? Traders are putting much less credence in FDA approving a new psychedelic substance by December 31, 2026.
The Rules in this market state “If the FDA approves any psychedelic substance for medical use for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FDA and U.S. Food and Drug Administration.”
Kalshi
The potential psychedelic drugs on the list the FDA could approve in this market at Kalshi includes Psilocybin, LSD, Mescaline, DMT, MDA, MDMA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Saliva divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca. But is the FDA even close to approving one of these psychedelics?
As a matter of fact, they are. Reports suggest the agency is close to approving the initial “classic” psychedelic drug with psilocybin. After positive Phase 3 trial results announced last February, Compass Pathways’ COMP360 is the leading candidate to be first getting approval from the FDA.
And recent Phase 3 results continue to bring hope with the company announcing that COMP360 (a synthetic psilocybin) showed a "statistically significant” decrease in symptoms of depression evaluating its effectiveness in treatment-resistant depression (TRD) as a potential change in the way we treat and the way the FDA sees what is okay in the treatment of mental health in the US.
➤Trading Thoughts: Even with the Phase 3 clinical trials a success and all going as well as possible for Compass Pathway and the evolution of possible COMP360 approval, things always seem to take a little longer than planned and with March here, 2027 seems too soon. Trading Pick: No 75¢
What PMs Tell Us About 2028 Presidential Nominees
By looking at some of the early trading numbers for the Democratic and Republican Nominees for President in 2028, by looking at the ‘No’ prices, one can see that there are really only four candidates on the donkey's side and just one on the elephant's side in our complex yet simple democracy.
In the trading at DraftKings Predictions for the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028, outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom (Yes +213, No -300) is the solid favorite followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris (Yes +733, No -1900), Josh Shapiro (Yes +900, No -3233), Pete Buttigieg (Yes +1011, No -4900), JB Pritzker (+1150), Andy Beshear (+1150). Cory Booker (+1329). Tim Walz (+1567), and Gretchen Whitmer (+1567).
In the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 trading, current US Vice President JD Vance (Yes +108, No -144) is the presumed favorite for the GOP with second-choice Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Yes +400, No -733) already saying he’d step aside and give Vance the nomination.
Candidates traders at DK Predictions were giving no shot on the Republican side were Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (Yes +1150), Brian Kemp (Yes +1329), Nikki Haley (Yes +1329), Glenn Youngkin (Yes +1329), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Yes +1329), Ted Cruz (Yes +1329), and Vivek Ramaswamy (+1329).
All of this tells us—eve this far away—is that we can expect a Newsom [D] vs Vance [R] showdown for the White House in November of 2028. Prediction markets Polymarket (24%-18%), Kalshi (23%-20%) and DraftKings Predictions (+300-+456) all have Vance in the predictive lead for now.
2026 Oscars Preview: Best Film Editing Winner
The Academy Awards are creeping up on us now, with the 98th Oscars hosted by Conan O’Brien from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California airing in just two weeks now on the night of Sunday, March 15 at the (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST).
In the ‘Oscar 2026: Best Film Editing Winner’ market at Polymarket, Entertainment traders are behind One Battle After Another (74%) over F1: The Movie (21%), Sinners (5%), and Marty Supreme (1%) following with Sentimental Value (<1%) being given no shot.
➤Trading Thoughts: Using vintage VistaVision cameras, One Battle After Another film editor Andy Jurgensen delivered perfectly for this movie which looks like it could have been shot 20 to 30 years ago. With cinematographer Michael Bauman and director Paul Thomas Anderson, this film is pure art.
With liquidity in late February ($676,896), this perceived niche market is holding its own and we can expect the Academy Awards to turn into the night of One Battle After Another with Anderson, Bauman, Jurgensen, Teyana Taylor rewarded and this masterpiece likely winning Best Picture. Trading Pick: One Battle After Another, Yes 75¢
BM at Dortmund in Der Klassiker Battle on Saturday
The 2025-26 German Bundesliga season continues this weekend with a full slate of games in snowy Germany including this rivalry between league leaders Bayern Munich (19-3-1) and 2nd-place Borussia Dortmund (15-7-1) from Signal Iduna Park (Hybrid Grass) in Dortmund on Saturday (ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, 12:30 EST/9:30 PST).
Traders at Polymarket are strongly behind Harry Kane and Bayern Munich (60¢) over Julian Brandt (6 goals) and Borussia Dortmund (21¢) and a Draw (21¢) in this can’t-miss match from Westfalenstadion. Despite Bayern’s dominance, the Bundesliga race is still far from over.
➤Trading Thoughts: Legend Manuel Neuer and Bayern Munich are 69-37-33 lifetime vs Dortmund in Der Klassiker and 2-2-1 in the last 5 meetings but 0-1-1 at Signal Iduna Park. In the Fußball-Bundesliga, mighty Bayern has gone a dominating 10-3-1 vs Dortmund in the last 14 matches, outscoring BVB 38-17 in the process. Barmherzigkeit.
With this match meaning so much to both and being played in North Rhine-Westphalia, expect Serhou Guirassy (9 goals) and the hosts to have some extra pep in their step, but Bayern has had the Black and Yellows number of late and can create some much-needed distance in the standings. Trading Picks: Bayern Munich, Yes 60¢
A Very Solid Slate of College Hoops to Trade Saturday
With the 2025-26 NCAA College Basketball Regular Season coming to an end next weekend, now is a good time to look at some key conference games, and on Saturday, we see a number of enticing Division I Men’s matchups from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and WCC conferences.
The day starts with #11 Virginia facing Cameron Boozer and #1 Duke at Cameron Indoor Arena in Durham on Tobacco Road in a key ACC clash (12 EST/9 PST), followed by Darryn Peterson and #14 Kansas and #2 Arizona locking horns at the McKale Center in Tucson (ESPN, 4 EST/3 CST/1 PST).
Next up, #16 Texas Tech—without star JT Toppin for the rest of the year—is in Ames, Iowa to face at #4 Iowa State in a nice Big 12 collision in the afternoon (CBS, 4 EST/3 CST/1 PST) followed by #20 Arkansas at #7 Florida in a nice SEC tussle in Gainesville (8:30 EST/7:30 CST/5:30 PST).
To cap off the day, a late WCC tipoff between #9 Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s in Moraga, California (ESPN, 10:30 EST/9:30 CST/7:30 PST) as star F Graham Ike (19.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and the Zags play out the last of their games in the WCC before heading to the Pac-12 next year.
➤Trading Thoughts: When then-unbeaten Arizona went to Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence and suffered its first setback of the season on Big Monday on February 9 (82-78), memories were etched into the soul of the Wildcats to eventually get some kind of revenge. That time is now.
The crowd in that contest at The Phog was worth about 50 points and Kansas never loses at home on Big Monday under Head Coach Bill Self (40-0) so the die was cast for Zona. Here, expect the crowd to be rabid, the calls to go the home team’s way, and a win by 6 or more. Trading Pick: Arizona Game Winner
Arsenal Hosts Chelsea in EPL London Derby on Sunday
The 2025-26 English Premier League continues this winter and we have an important fixture on the immediate horizon with 1st-place Arsenal (18-7-3) welcoming 5th-place Chelsea (12-9-6) at Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in North London on Sunday (Peacock, 11:30 EST/8:30 PST).
These two rivals played twice recently in the Carabao (FA) Cup with the Gunners winning 3-2 at Stamford Bridge and 1-0 at home at Emirates Stadium to advance to the Finals where Arsenal will now face Manchester City at Wembley Stadium on March 22 (Paramount+, 12:30 EST/9:30 PST).
Kalshi traders like Viktor Gyökeres (8 goals) and Arsenal (61%) over Chelsea (18%) with a Draw trading at 24%. In the ’English Premier League Winner?’ market, traders were giving Arsenal a 57% chance followed by Manchester City (40%), Manchester United (2%), and Aston Villa (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Reece James and the Blues have struggled against Bukayo Sako (5 goals) and the Gunners in this London Derby with Arsenal going an unbeaten 3-2-0 in the last 5 meetings (7 GF-3 GA) with the Gunners winning the last 2 matchups at Emirates Stadium by 1-0 scorelines.
A deeper handicapping dive where the Anglerfish swim, since 2022, and including those two recent aforementioned Gunners FA Cup wins, Arsenal (70-53-54 lifetime vs CFC) is an unbeaten 7-3-0 vs Chelsea (22 GF-9 GA) going 4-0-0 record at home (10 GF-1 GA) with three clean sheets. Trading Picks: Arsenal, Yes 61¢
AS Roma Hosting Juventus in Serie A on Sunday
The 2025-26 Italian Serie A season continues this weekend with a full slate of matches, including a battle with UCL implications between 5th-place Juventus (13-7-5) and 4th-place AS Roma (15-2-5) at Olimpico (Grass) in Rome, Italy on Sunday (Paramount+, 2:45 ET/1:45 CT/11:45 PT).
Soccer traders at Polymarket are backing Matìas Soulè (6 goals) and AS Roma (39¢) over Kenan Yildiz (8 goals) and Juventus (31¢) with a Draw trading at 32¢. The Total of 2.5 was trading at 48¢ for the Over and 61¢ for the Under.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 5 series meetings between these two storied Italian clubs, we see that Juventus is an unbeaten 2-3-0 (W-D-L), with the Old Lady outscoring AS Roma 5-3 in low-scoring games (1.6 GPG). When they played at Allianz Stadium in Torino in December, the hosts won 2-1 as Francisco Conceição (44') and Loïs Openda (75’) scored for Juventus.
With Giallorossi unbeaten at home since December in Serie A play and this match having some meaning, the feeling is that the hosts will be seeking revenge for the loss in December and wanting to get all 3 points and create some space between themselves and the Old Lady in the league table. Trading Picks: AS Roma Yes 39¢, Under 2.5 goals, Yes 60¢
NASCAR Circuit of the Americas Races on Sunday
The third race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season sees the circuit heading to the Lone Star State and the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas for the Duramax Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne on Sunday afternoon (TV—FOX, PRN, HBO Max, RADIO—SiriusXM, 3:30 EST/2:30 CST/1:30 MST/12:30 PST).
Last year (March 2, 2025) in this race at the Circuit of the Americas, Christopher Bell won in his Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, and with a Toyota (Camry XSE) winning at the Daytona 500 as Tyler Reddick picked up his first win for Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing, banking on a Toyota to win here in Texas may be a good trading angle.
➤Trading Thoughts: The NASCAR teams driving Toyotas this new season are the aforementioned 23XI Racing (Tyler Reddick, Riley Herbst, Bubba Wallace), Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs), and Legacy Motor Club (John Hunter Nemechek, Erik Jones).
Bell, Hamlin, and Reddick seem like the best Toyota triumvirate to back in this relatively new (2021) 95-lap race from a 2.4-mile (3.862 km) track (Asphalt) that also features an F1 race. Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) has the most Team Wins here with 2 while Chevrolet has the most manufacturer wins (3). Trading Picks: Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin
#4 Iowa St at #2 Arizona in Big 12 Big Monday Battle
Milan Momcilovic (18.0 PPG) and #4 Iowa State (24-4, 11-4 in Big 12) meet # 2 Arizona (26-2, 13-2 in Big 12) in a huge Big 12 Conference matchup between top 10 teams at the McKale Memorial Center at ALKEME Arena in Tucson, Arizona on Monday night (ESPN, ESPN+, 9 EST/8 CST/7 MST/6 PST).
Kalshi traders are currently giving Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Arizona a 12% chance (Yes 12¢, No 89¢) of becoming the Men’s College Basketball Champion in April with Joshua Jefferson and Iowa State being given a 5% (Yes 5¢, No 96¢) chance by the predictive hardwood masses.
➤Trading Thoughts: These two schools played twice last season with the Wildcats winning in OT in Tucson on January 27, 2025 (86-75) and the Cyclones winning in Ames on March 1, 2025 (84-67)—two double-digit results despite the first meeting at McKale needing overtime.
Arizona heads into this game 13-1 at home and this is the Regular Season home finale and thus, Senior Night, meaning some extra juice and expectations in the desert air. Iowa State is 4-5 lifetime vs Arizona, but the Wildcats are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, winning the last 2 in Tucson by 35 and 11 points (average 23.0 PG). Trading Pick: Arizona Moneyline
↪Next Issue: In the next online edition of The Prediction Report on Tuesday, March 3, will look at the start of the 2026 Formula One season and the first race in Australia, the chances Opinion will launch a token, the Best Actress category in the upcoming Oscars, the highest grossing movie race for 2026, the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational, the AL and NL MVP awards, and UFC 326 among other items.