The biggest game every year in pro sports comes this weekend with the NFL Championship—the Super Bowl—is contested for the 60th time as Drake Maye and the AFC champion New England Patriots meet Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks. Here are some of the basics to know:
Super Bowl LX
Television: NBC, Telemundo (Spanish) Announcers: Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth
Streaming: Peacock, NFL+ Radio: Westwood One Announcers: Kevin Harlan (play-by-play), Kurt Warner
Polymarket Game Link: Super Bowl Champion 2026 Kalshi Game Link: Pro Football Champion?
Robinhood Game Link: Pro Football Champion DraftKings Point Spread: Seahawks -4.5 -115
Moneyline: Seahawks -230 Total (Points): 45.5o -112
LEVI’S
Kalshi May Set New Volume Record with Super Bowl?
There’s a very remote possibility that the Pro Football Champion market at Kalshi could set a new volume record for the company, surpassing the $535,948,943 poured into the 2024 Presidential Election at the popular prediction market exchange.
Four days out, the market had $165,532,685 (and counting) in volume, so it’s still too soon to tell if The Big Game between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks showdown at the Field of Jeans in Santa Clara, California on Sunday night will set a new volume record at Kalshi.
It is important to note that this market has been open and trading before the 2025-26 NFL Regular Season kicked off in September, and that 30 teams have already been resolved as ‘No.’ If this market is to top that 2024 Presidential Election in volume, it will need massive trading from Friday through Sunday as well as (live) throughout The Big Game.
Super Bowl LX Mentions Market at Polymarket
Looking at the ‘What Will be Said During the Pro Football Championship’ Mentions market at Polymarket, it’s important to understand the specifics and parameters surrounding any of the potential words or phrases heard on Super Bowl Sunday on the NBC broadcast.
The rules state, “This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term at any point between kickoff and the conclusion of this game during its official broadcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This means that the market is only open from kickoff to the conclusion of the game, including a potential Super Bowl LX Overtime. So the commercials and the words in them don’t count in this market, nor does any AI-generated content. Here was the market early on Thursday, February 5
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at this list, three (‘Yes’) really jump out. ‘Underdog’ (94¢), ‘Touchback’ (76¢), and ‘Blowout’ (63¢). Why? Both ‘Underdog’ and ‘Blowout’ can be used talking about this game or referring to past Super Bowls or games Seattle and New England played.
The phrase ‘Touchback’ is fairly common in NFL games, even with the new kickoff rules, and touchbacks can occur on special teams or regular play. The word could also be used in a speculative context by the announcers. Trading Picks: Underdog 94¢, Touchback 76¢, Blowout 63¢
Super Bowl National Anthem Time at Polymarket
Through the years and before Super Bowl Props betting really became big in legal sportsbooks in Las Vegas, the time of the National Anthem was always a popular offering with professional and recreational bettors both enjoying having action on a song before the game has even kicked off.
The shortest National Anthem ever at the Super Bowl was Neil Diamond (1:02) while the longest one to date was sung by Alicia Keys (2:36).
At Polymarket, traders can buy Yes-No contracts on specific 10-second time periods on how long Charlie Puth takes to sing the song. Puth is a 34-year-old singer who was discovered after a magical performance on the The Ellen Degeneres Show.
Polymarket
The leader with traders was 110-120s (42%), followed by 120-130s (41%), 130-140s (27%), 90-100s (20%), 100-110s (17%), and with 140-150s (3%), 80-90s (3%, ≥150s (2%), and <80s (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Two of the last three National Anthems at the Super Bowl have been longer than 2 minutes in Chris Stapleton in 2023 (2:01) and Jon Batiste in 2025 (2:02), but that is meaningless with all artists and renditions being different.
The 42-second huge range (1:35 Reba McEntire in 2024 to 2:16/2:17 Erin Church & Jazmine Sullivan in 2021) we have witnessed in the last five performances also makes this almost an educated Charlie Puth crapshoot. ¡Viva la revolución! Trading Pick: 100-110s, Yes 62¢
Bad Bunny Wears Skirt or Dress at SB Halftime Show?
We previewed the Bad Bunny first song market for Super Bowl LX on Sunday (NBC, 6 EST/3 PST) in the last digital volume of The Prediction Report, now let’s take a look at the ‘Bad Bunny Wears a Dress or Skirt at the Pro Football Championship?’ market at Polymarket.
This market (Yes) went from 64% (January 23) all the way down to 15% (February 5). Why? Probably because Bad Bunny announced he would be wearing a dress during the halftime performance to pay tribute to queer icons and Puerto Rican political resistance.
Polymarket
At 15%, it seems someone knows something, but that is often the perception that movements and chances are in prediction markets. Sometimes somebody knows something. Sometimes somebody knows nothing. Sometimes somebody pretends to know something but knows nothing.
➤Trading Thoughts: The thought here is to buy (Yes) low for a small number of shares recreationally (10 for $1.50) and hope he follows through with his statement-threat-promise to wear one of these? I have no idea, Wilma. We live in a sad movie. Trading Pick: Yes 15¢
Super Bowl Winner Gatorade Shower Color Liquid Fun
As historically popular as the Coin Toss, Length of the National Anthem, and Safety Props are for the Super Bowl, the Gatorade Shower Color has emerged as an equally iconic (but random) market, mostly designed for bettor or trader looking for a spin on the colored sugarwater wheel.
At Polymarket, traders are drinking up the Gatorade colors Orange (25%), Green/Yellow (24%) and Blue (24%) with the flavors (colors) Purple (12%), Clear/Water (9%), No Gatorade Shower (5%), and Red/Pink (5%).
Polymarket
When these two met in Super Bowl XLIX (2015), Blue Gatorade was poured on the Patts staff after beating Seattle—the last time blue was dumped. When the Seahawks last won (Super Bowl 48), Orange Gatorade flowed, as it did for the last time in 2020 when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.
Green/Yellow clicked last year in the Philadelphia Eagles win, the first time since 2018 for Green/Yellow, while the last two times it rained Purple Gatorade was in 2023 and 2024 when the Chiefs Andy Reid was purified in the sacred purple waters of Lake Minnetonka.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Patriots (Nautical blue) and Seahawks (College Navy blue) each have a shade of Blue in their colors. Red stains, pink is too light, green/yellow is so last season, clear/water is boring, orange is ancient. Purple? Possibly. Trading Pick: Blue, Yes 26¢
Will SB LX be the Most Viewed Super Bowl Ever?
Last year, we saw Super Bowl LIX set new Nielsen ratings, with an average of 127.7 million viewers tuning in for the NFL Championship Game between the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on February 9, 2025.
The game was aired on a number of platforms, including FOX, FOX Deportes, Teleemundo, and Tubi and it topped the previous high mark (123.7 million) we saw in Super Bowl LVIII in 2024.
Polymarket
So will we be seeing another new record this year? Some think with the LA Rams loss, a major market (Los Angeles) will be missing, but football is football and this is The Digital Age. At Polymarket, traders are bullish a new record will be set (64%) on Sunday in Santa Clara, California.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, fans may have been burned out, seeing the chiefs in The Big Game for a third straight season, yet the broadcast still set a new record and even peaked out at 191.1 million viewers at one point in The Big Easy in the game won by Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia.
With fresh blood and both coasts involved, a new record should be seen. Trading Pick: Yes 67¢
#4 Duke at #16 NC in Tobacco Road Rivalry on Saturday
One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports renews on Saturday afternoon when NCAA Basketball and Tobacco Road legends Duke (21-1, 10-0 ACC) and North Carolina (18-4, 6-3 ACC) meet at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina (ESPN, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST).
The game will see two of the best players in college hoops and two Naismith Player of the Year
candidates in the Blue Devils F Carlos Boozer (23.5 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 4.1 APG) and the Tar Heels F Caleb Wilson (19.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 2.8 APG).
At Polymarket, visitors Duke (75%) are the solid choice of traders over North Carolina (31%).
➤Trading Thoughts: NC leads the all-time series over Duke 145-120, with the game’s site often being one of the most important factors in these hardwood collisions, infrequently called The Battle of The Blues and always good entertainment.
Last season, the Blue Devils swept the Tar Heels, winning three times in all, at home in ACC play (87-70), at Chapel Hill (82-69), and in the ACC Tournament (74-71) with Josh Knueppel leading the scoring for Duke in all three wins. Trading Pick: Duke Game winner, Yes 75¢
#5 Illinois at #10 Michigan State in Big Ten on Saturday
The Big Ten Conference sees a nice top 10 showdown when #5 Illinois (17-3, 8-1 Big Ten) faces rivals #10 Michigan State on Saturday night (19-2, 9-1 Big Ten) at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
➤Trading Thoughts: Last season in Big Ten Conference play, Jeremy Fears Jr. (14.1 PPG) and the Spartans swept the Fighting Illini, winning 75-62 vs Illinois at home in Champaign on February 15, 2025 (79-65) and then beating them 80-78 in East Lansing on January 19, 2025.
With G Fears Jr , F Jaxon Kohler (13.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG), F Coen Carr (11.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG), and C Carson Cooper (10.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG), MSU can get scoring from all over and with this one in East Lansing, the lean is to Sparty. Trading Pick: Michigan State Game Winner, Yes
#8 Houston at #16 BYU in Big 12 on Saturday
AJ Dybantsa and #16 BYU (17-4, 5-3 in Big 12) welcome #8 Houston (20-2, 8-1 Big 12) to the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah on Saturday night for a must-see Big 12 heavyweight battle from the Beehive State (ESPN, 10:30 EST/9:30 CST/7:30 PST).
Trading Thoughts: In Big 12 Conference play last season, Houston swept BYU 2-0, rolling 86-55 at home on March 14, 2025 and then eliminating the other Cougars in the Big 12 Semifinals, 74-54, for an average win margin of 25.5 PPG.
With Dybantsa, BYU is better this year and the site should help, but this is a tossup and one of those events better just watched than traded (or bet) on in my mind. Trading Pick: None
Some Other Popular Super Bowl LX Markets
Besides the conventional trading markets offered for Super Bowl LX, there are a variety of Props offerings for The Big Game on Sunday in Santa Clara. Here we will microanalyze the Total, Team Totals, and provide links for simplistic SB Props markets like Coin Toss, Safety, and Overtime.
Total
At Kalshi, the Over 45.5 points scored (50%) was being backed by Pro Football traders. Both New England (12-8-0 O/U) and Seattle (11-8-0 O/U) have skewed to the Over this season with solid QBs who didn’t suffer injuries and decent RBs and WRs providing depth for both teams.
When looking at the Total, it’s impossible not to respect the defenses of the Patriots (18.8 PPG #4) and the Seahawks (17.2, #1). While Seattle has a reputation of being a solid squad defensively, NE is tops in the Playoffs in YDS/G (209.7) and Sacks (12) and the Patriots have allowed just 2 TDs.
Trading Thoughts: The Under 6-4-0 in the last 10 Super Bowls but the Over is 2-1-0 in the last three, including last year when 62 points were scored (PHI 40 KC 22). The weather might not hold scoring down but these two elite defenses just might. Trading Pick: Over 45.5 Points, No 51¢
Unique Props (Coin Toss, Safety, OT)
Besides the ones we’ve looked at here like Gatorade Shower Color and National Anthem Time, traders at Polymarket can also trade on the Coin Toss, Coin Toss Winner Wins Super Bowl?, Safety (8%), and will there be Overtime (6%).
In the history of the Super Bowl, Tails has won 31 times with Heads winning 28. Trading (or betting) on the coin toss is too random to ever have any edges. I suggest making tacos instead. The last 20 SB Coin Toss results (recent to past; Tails is 2025): THTHHTTHTTTTHHHHHTHT
The team winning the Coin Toss seems to be cursed. The Super Bowl Coin Toss winners are 25-34 SU (42.4%) in the NFL Championship Game. KC—winners of 4 of the last 5 SB Coin Tosses—won the Coin Toss in SB LIX but lost the game. The loser of the Coin Toss in 9-2 in the last 11 SBs.
Team Totals
New England Over 20.5 points (46%) and Seattle Over 25.5 points (51%) are the median trading numbers at Kalshi in the team Totals marketplace, but traders can toggle up or down and play with the points for different returns. For example, NE Over 8.5 points is currently at 91%.
Trading Thoughts: Four of the Seahawks last 6 opponents have scored 10 points or less, but none of those games was the Super Bowl. The Patriots led an amazing 15 straight games at Halftime this season until facing the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game in Denver (7-7 Halftime).
TOs and field position may have a lot to do with the team and game Totals as we expect normalcy from the weather, the workmanlike QBs, and the staunch defenses. It’s hard to imagine a shootout here where Bad Bunny may have more songs than the Pats do points in the end. Trading Pick: None
Super Bowl LX Point Spread, Moneyline Markets
In this Super Bowl-heavy newsletter, we have covered everything but the popular Point spread and Moneyline (Game Winner) markets. In the NFL Championship edition of TPR, we went 2-0 with the Pats and Seahawks, so let’s see if we can end the NFL season on a positive predictive note.
At Kalshi, the chances of a Seattle win are 68%—New England is at 33%—with Polymarket at 69%-32% and Robinhood at 68%-33% so good luck arbitraging. At online sportsbooks DraftKings and FanDuel, the Seahawks were priced at -240 and -225 respectively early on February 5.
➤Trading Thoughts: Seattle has won 9 straight games and the Seahawks three losses were to the 49ers, Buccaneers, and Rams. NE has won 5 straight with the Patriots three losses to the Raiders, Steelers, and Bills. The Raiders? Yep. Trading Pick: Seahawks Game Winner, Yes 68c (Kalshi)
At Kalshi in the Point Spread market, Seattle wins by over 5.5 points is 49% with Seattle wins by over 4.5 points trading at 52% who see the value in getting a better number in what may end up being a low-scoring game at the Field of Jeans. DK and FD were both dealing -4.5 on February 5.
The underdog has performed extremely well in recent Super Bowls going 13-5-0 ATS in the last 18 (and 17-7 the L24) and winning outright the last three times. So can NE—the first team to ever go a perfect 9-0 on the road—upset Seattle on Sunday? If not, is the +4.5 enough to get the butter?
Seattle has the extra week rest and with Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Kenneth Walker III, and the electric Rashid Shaheed (1% SB MVP, Kalshi), QB Sam Darnold has more dangerous weapons and the Seahawks defense is scary good. Underdogs do great in this game. I don’t care. Trading Picks: Seattle Wins by Over 4.5 Points, Yes 52¢, Jaxon Smith Njibga Super Bowl MVP, Yes 16¢, Rashid Shaheed Super Bowl MVP, Yes 1.3¢
