Thirty-two NFL teams hoped to make it to this weekend in January but only four remain, and after the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship on Sunday, there will only be two standing, the AFC and NFC champs, and they will both be deserving and grateful to play in the Super Bowl.
The AFC Championship will be contested first on Sunday afternoon (CBS, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST), and we will see a new team coming out of the AFC after Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs made it to the big game seven straight seasons (2018-2024), making the Super Bowl thrice.
The NFC Championship plays later in the day on Sunday (FOX, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST), and with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles eliminated, so we will also be seeing a new NFC champion as well as a new champion in the NFL come February 8 in Santa Clara, California.
NFL
What has this season shown us? The AFC East and the NFC West may be the new power divisions. The Broncos were the AFC #1 seed while the Seahawks were the NFC #1 seed and both host games with Denver vs #2 seed NE and Seattle vs their divisional rivals, the Rams for a third time.
In prediction markets, sports trading is king and (American) football has always been king in sports betting, legal or illegal here in North America. We can probably expect another new record volume in the exchanges Pro Football section on Championship Sunday, where the NFL lives and breathes.
After setting a new volume record across all platforms with the NFL Divisional Round playing two games on Saturday, January 10 ($455 million), Kalshi set a new record a day later—with three Divisional Round games played—raking in a newer record $466 million on Sunday, January 11.
‘No’ Can Prove to be a Pretty Good PM Trading Strategy
When traders look at the various markets on prediction markets, the questions are usually geared toward a ‘Yes’ answer, with that ‘Yes’ outcome being worth $1 for every share of the winner or winners in the market.
This is natural for these platforms to be designed that way, but does that stop traders from looking for and buying ‘No’ contracts? The bottom line is that out of whatever number of choices are given within a market, there is usually only one winner or a few winners depending on the market.
For example, in the recently concluded Heisman Trophy winner market, there was only one winner (Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza). In the 2026 Oscars Best Actor category, there will only be one winner. And this has usually been the case for sports bettors betting in Futures markets. One wins.
So that means that all of the other entries in a market that didn’t win are ‘No’ winners and a position worth looking at in many instances. If you see a “Will insert team name here” Beat Bayern Munich?,” backing the ‘No’ is just as good of a position as trading on the German legends to win.
The same holds true when trading on Elections. One candidate wins. And the ‘No’ also wins for all of the candidates who didn’t win at the ballot box. When trading, take a minute to look at offering in markets from the ‘No’ perspective and buy some ‘No’s’ to experiment if you find yourself looking at and betting on things from the ‘Yes’ perspective.
‘The Strangers: Chapter 3’ Rotten Tomatoes Score?
Directed by Renny Harlin and in theaters on February 6, 2026, The Strangers: Chapter 3
Is a Horror release starring Madelaine Petsch, Gabe Basso, and Ema Horvath and sees masked strangers once again terrorizing as they did in The Strangers and The Strangers - Chapter 2.
And at the famous online Movies (and TV shows) review-aggregation website Rotten Tomatoes, traders can invest in the level or different levels in "The Strangers: Chapter 3" Rotten Tomatoes Score? market. Will it win an Academy award in 2027? No. Is it fun trading fodder? Of course it is.
The different ranges and their chances at Kalshi were Above 45 (25%), Above 90 (16%), and Above 75 (6%) in the not-so-liquid market ($6,232 volume) with Above 60 getting <1% on Jan. 17.
“The Strangers - Chapter 3“ Rotten Tomatoes score?
➤Trading Thoughts: The original The Strangers (2008) got a 50% on the Tomatometer while the sequel Prey at Night (2018) scored 40%, with Chapter 1 (2024) and Chapter 2 (2025) receiving horrid Rotten Tomatoes scores of 13-21% and 14-25% respectively.
Like many Horror franchises, it’s usually downhill from the original and The Strangers is no exception. The original was a classic, and by judging the provided trailer below, this Chapter 3 will likely suck in the same disappointing range as its two predecessors. Trading Pick: Above 45, No 76¢
Grammy Awards: Album of the Year Winner Preview
The Grammy Awards recognize outstanding achievement in music each year, and the 2026 GRAMMY’s will air from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Sunday, February 1, 2026 (CBS, Paramount+, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
At Polymarket, in the Grammys: Album of the Year Winner market, there are three main candidates to take home the award from The Recording Academy in DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny (61%), GNX by Kendrick Lamar (22%), and Mayhem by Lady Gaga (14%).
Grammys: Album of the Year Winner
DeBÍ TiRAR Más FOToS was trading as low as 4.4% on November 7, 2025, far behind both the Kendrick Lamar and Lady Gaga albums. A day later, both DeBÍ TiRAR Más FOToS (4.4% to 31.0%) and Tyler the Creator’s Chromokopia (1.1% to 31.6%) spiked in trading at Polymarket.
➤Trading Thoughts: The trading sentiment has changed in this market, and the current gap (30%) seems just too much as the collective wisdom of the masses are convinced Bad Bunny will prevail in this category in LA on February 1. Trading Pick: DeBÍ TiRAR Más FOToS by Bad Bunny, Yes 61.7¢
What Will Google Say on Their Next Earnings Call?
Google has an earnings call for Q4 2025 and full year fiscal 2025 results scheduled for February 4, 2026, and Polymarket has a Mentions market, ‘What Will Google Say During Their Next Earnings Call?’ for that upcoming event.
Here are the words or phrases currently listed at the exchange with the current (January 18) chance percentages:
➤Trading Thoughts: The results from Google will be revealed after market close via webcast around 4:30 EST/1:45 P30 on Wednesday, February 4 and can be seen on the company’s Alphabet Investor Relations website. Trading Picks: Gemini 3 Yes 95¢, Ironwood, Yes 80¢
NCAAB Men’s Tournament Winner Futures at Polymarket
The winner of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is always hard to predict but is it a fun market where scores of teams have a legitimate chance to navigate through the Madness of March, win 6 straight games, and become the national champs? No big deal, right?
This season is no different, but we see the usual suspects listed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner, including Polymarket traders favorite Michigan (19%), followed by Big Ten Conference mates Arizona (11%), perennial ACC powers Duke (11%), and Big 12 heavies Houston (10%).
Traders also are giving Iowa State (9%), Purdue (8%), Connecticut (7%), Gonzaga (6%), Florida (5%), Alabama (4%), North Carolina (4%), Michigan State (4%), Illinois (3%), and BYU (3%).
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
➤Trading Thoughts: The winner of the Big Dance almost always comes from east of the Mississippi River and always from a major conference—the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, or SEC—and as much as is made about “Cinderellas” in the tournament, a favorite usually wins the championship.
Last year it was Florida who survived the gauntlet as the SEC. No Big Ten team has won this since 2000 (Michigan State), but the addition of Arizona to the conference gives the Power Four conference a realistic chance at breaking that 25-year dry spell.
Looking at #1 Arizona, we see a dynamic roster in Tucson with F Koa Peat (15.3 PPG), G Brayden Burries (14.1 PPG), G Jaden Bradley (13.5 PPG), F Tobe Awaka (10.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG), and 7-2 C Motiejus Krivas (10.6 PPG) with three guys averaging 1.9 steals. Trading Pick: Arizona, Yes 15¢
Ohio State at Rivals #4 Michigan in Friday Night Hoops
The 2025-26 NCAA Division I Men’s College Basketball season in in the midst of conference play right now, and on Friday night, Ohio State (13-5, 5-3 Big Ten) faces #4 Michigan (17-1, 7-1 Big Ten) at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
Bruce Thornton (20.5 PPG) and the Buckeyes have been decent on the road in Big Ten play, beating Oregon, Rutgers, and Northwestern, while Yaxel Lendeborg (14.7 PPG) and the Wolverines suffered their first loss of the season on January 13, falling vs Wisconsin, 91-88.
At Kalshi, College Basketball traders like Michigan (89%) over rivals Ohio State (11%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year when these two played at The House That Cazzie Built, the Wolverines won 73-65 as Michigan ran out to a 9-point halftime lead (47-38) and then held Thornton (19 points) and the visitors in check for the final 20 minutes at the Crisler Center.
Michigan is really good, but it’s hard to think it is truly a top 5 team and expect Big Ten Conference play to flatten the Wolverines out some. OSU leads the all-time series 108-84 and is 2-2 the last 4 at Michigan and can pull off the upset here. Trading Pick: None
NHL: Lightning at Blackhawks Preview for Friday Night
The NHL is nearing the halfway point of the 2025-26 NHL Regular Season with the 2026 Winter Olympics meaning the professional hockey league will pause on February 5 and be back on the frozen water on February 25.
The Men’s Olympic Hockey tournament will run from February 11-22, 2026 in Milano, Italy.
On Friday night in the Windy City, Connor Bedard and the Blackhawks (20-22-7, 11-12-4 Home) hosting the red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning (31-13-4, 18-4-4 Road) at the United Center in Chicago (ESPN, 7 EST/6 CST/5 PST).
At Kalshi, Hockey traders like Andrei Vasilevskiy and visiting Tampa Bay (70%) over Chicago (30%) with Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals at 46% and Over 6.5 goals scored at 44%.
United Center
➤Trading Thoughts: Lifetime, Lightning are 36-18-5-4 vs the Blackhawks with but the Bolts lost to Chicago (3-2) at home in TB in the first meeting this year as well as the last meeting last season. The simple thing here though is Tampa Bay is a good team and Chicago has historically been bad.
With the Bolts an impressive 17-4-4 on the Road this campaign—the best mark in the NHL—and studs like RW Nikita Kucherov (69 points), C Jake Guentzel (47 points), and LW Brandon Hagel (42 points), the Lightning should win this by 2 or more. Trading Pick: TB Lightning Game Winner, Yes 72¢
#5 Purdue Hosts #13 Illinois in Big Ten Bounce on Saturday
There is a full slate of College Basketball games for prediction market traders on Saturday, including a nice Big Ten Conference showdown between #4 Purdue (16-3, 7-1 Big Ten) and #11 Illinois (16-3, 7-1 Big Ten) at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana (FOX, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Freshman Keaton Wagler (16.1 PPG) and the Fighting Illini come in with all three losses to ranked teams (AUB, UCONN, NEB) while Braden Smith (14.2 PPG) and the Boilermakers were on a 9-game winning streak after before falling at UCLA for their first loss in the Big Ten Conference.
At the popular prediction market Kalshi, Purdue (54%) is the choice of traders over Illinois (46%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Purdue is a dominating 54-5 in the last 59 games played at the friendly confines of Mackey Arena, and although Illinois has been very good on the road this year, the Boilermakers are loaded in the backcourt as well as the front court.
With Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PPG) the ideal complement to Smith at the guard position, F Trey Kaufman-Renn (12.2 PPG, 9.5 PPG) and C Oscar Cluff (11.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG) provide size and scoring down low and Purdue will be mad after losing. Trading Pick: Purdue, Yes 69¢
UFC 324 Coming on Saturday Night in Las Vegas
The first mixed martial arts card of the year on the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) docket comes Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise (Las Vegas), Nevada with UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett (Paramount+, Main Card—9 EST/8 CST/7 MST/6 PST).
The main event is an Interim Lightweight Title fight between Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) vs Paddy Pimblett (23-3-0) with Bantamweights Sean O’ Malley (18-3-0) vs Song Yadong (22-8-1) and Heavyweights Waldo Cortes-Acosta (72%) and Derrick Lewis (27%) also on the Main card.
At Kalshi, the Gaethje vs Pimblett crescendo sees Pimblett (68%) the big favorite over Gaethje (32%) on Saturday night. The Natália Silva vs Rose Namajunas (Women’s Flyweight) and Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva (Featherweight) fights are also on the Main card and trading at Kalshi.
UFC
A Women’s Bantamweight title bout between champ Kayla Harrison and a returning 37-year-old legend Amanda Nunes—where traders backed Harrison (64%) over “The Lioness” Nunes (36%)—was called off when Harrison withdrew with a herniated disc. It will be rescheduled.
There are five fights scheduled on the Main card (Paramount+), three on the Preliminary card (Paramount+), and five on the Early preliminary card (Paramount+/UFC Fight Pass). The Main card will start at 9 EST/6 PST—a new, earlier start time with the new deal with Paramount Skydance.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Main Event is interesting, with Paddy Pimblett looking for an interim title and hopes of a future unification bout in the weight class and facing a big test in “The Highlight” Gaethje. With Englishman Pimblett unbeaten in the UFC (7-0) and so much at stake for him, The Baddy is the pick. Trading Pick: Lightweight Fight: Paddy Pimblett, Yes 70¢
AFC Championship Game: Patriots at Broncos on Sunday
The AFC Championship Game sees the Denver Broncos (13-3, 9-1 Home) welcoming the New England Patriots (16-3, 8-0 Road) to Empower Field at Mile High (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Denver, Colorado on Sunday (CBS, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST) for the first spot in the Super Bowl.
Despite winning, the top seed in the AFC suffered a huge loss when QB Bo Nix fractured an ankle. It was announced shortly after the exciting OT win over the BIlls that Nix would miss the rest of the Playoffs meaning that Jarett Stidham will now start with Sam Ehlinger as the Broncos backup.
Drake Maye and the #2-seed Patriots defeated the Texans in the Divisional Round, ending Houston’s 9-game winning streak to set up this AFC Conference Championship game in the Rocky Mountains as Texans QB CJ Stroud threw 4 interceptions in a 28-16 NE victory at Foxborough.
EMPOWER FIELD
Traders at Kalshi like NE (69%) over Denver (33%) with NE wins by over 3.5 points at 54% and Over 43.5 points scored at 46%. The winner represents the AFC in the Super Bowl in California, a state which will have seen the World Series, Super Bowl, and World Cup all in an 8-month span.
➤Trading Thoughts: AFC #2-seed NE is 6-4-0 SU/ATS the last 10 series meetings with the Pats winning the last three at Denver by an average of 13.7 PPG (26-23, 41-16, 16-3). As good as the Broncos are in the altitude of the Rockies, the Pats are perfect on the road and more consistent.
The home team will need Stidham to overachieve and the D to be as good as it can, but the precision-like way Maye has been throwing the football all season long and Vrabel’s humble leadership makes NE the choice. Trading Pick: NE Patriots Game Winner, Yes 69¢
NFC Championship Game: Rams at Seahawks on Sunday
The NFC Championship Game gives us the Seattle Seahawks (15-3, 9-1 Home) hosting their new rivals, the Los Angeles Rams (14-5, 7-4 Road), at Lumen Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Seattle, Washington on Sunday (FOX, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST) for the second spot in Super Bowl LX.
Sam Darnold and the #1-seed Seahawks eliminated another NFC West rival, crushing the 49ers in the Divisional Round, protecting the Emerald City homefield and winning their 8th straight while the Rams went into frigid Chicago and hibernated the Bears in OT to earn this NFC title tilt spot.
Hosts Seattle (58%) are the traders choice over the LA Rams (43%) at Kalshi with Seattle wins by over 2.5 points at 52% and Over 47.5 points scored currently trading at 48%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Sam Darnold, Kennenth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Seahawks have been clicking all year and with this one in the Emerald City, expect the home crowd to set new decibel levels. In LA, Seattle lost 21-19 while they edged the Rams 38-37 in Starbucksville.
This is probably one of those sporting events best just watched and not traded on as anything can happen and these just might be the two best teams in the NFL now. But only one can win and go on to the Super Bowl. Crowd matters.. Trading Pick: Seahawks win by more than 2.5 points, Yes 52¢