State of the Union on Tuesday

On Tuesday, February 24, 2026, United States president Donald Trump will address a Joint Session of Congress in the Chamber of the US House of Representatives in Washington, DC with his State of the Union address (9 EST/8 CST/7 MST/6 PST).

Here are the words and/or phrases you can trade on at Kalshi in the Mentions market for this State of the Union (Yes-No) to be said by the 47th president and percentage chances February 23:

➤Trading Picks: Yes: Radical Left 68¢, Trump 85¢, Hoax 43¢; No: Crypto/Bitcoin 75¢, Ballroom 52¢

 Click here to trade on ‘What Will Trump Say During the State of the Union’?’ at Kalshi

The next general election in the state of California comes later this year in the Fall on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 with the mid-term elections. The top-two primary non-partisan election in California is scheduled for Tuesday, June 2, 2026.

Governor Gavin Newsom can’t run for a third term due to term limits (two), meaning someone new will occupy the historic Governor's Mansion in Sacramento. The 58-year-old Newson will likely enter the 2028 Presidential race where traders have him as the Democrats top candidate.

Leading in the ‘Who Will Win the 2026 Gubernatorial Election in California?’ is Democrat Eric Swallwell (49¢), holding a big 35¢ (+10¢) lead over traders’ second and third choices, Democrat and San José mayor Matt Mahan (14¢) and billionaire and environmentalist Tom Steyer (11¢).

 Also in consideration to be the next Governor of the Golden State are Republican Steve Hilton (9¢), Democratic House of Rep member Katie Porter (7¢), Republican and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (7¢), and Democrat and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (2¢).

 ➤Trading Thoughts: Since the days of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2001), the Democrats have won the gubernatorial race in California with Jerry Brown (2011-2019) holding the office before Newsom (2020-2026).

 In the coming 2026 California Gubernatorial Election, Swallwell, a US representative from the state's 14th congressional district since 2023, is the favorite and rightfully so and traders may want to get in on him before the price becomes too lofty. Trading Pick: Eric Swallwell, Yes, 50¢

Click here to trade for fun on ‘Who Will be the Next Governor of California?’ at Predictit

On Tuesday, February 17, 2026, Michael Selig, the recently appointed chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), posted a video on X (Twitter) that seems to show the agency taking sides for the first time, read as a positive sign for prediction markets.

Selig said in the video the CFTC filed a “friend of the court brief” supporting Crypto.com in its ongoing battle with regulators in Nevada. With this intervention, Selig sent out the signal that state-level gambling laws don’t apply to prediction markets because they are federally regulated

“Over the past year, American prediction markets have been hit with an onslaught of state-led litigation,” Selig said. “The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products."

Utah governor Spencer Cox fired back on X saying he will “beat” Selig in court by using “every resource” at his disposal within the Beehive State. “These prediction markets you (Selig) are so breathlessly defending are gambling—pure and simple,” Cox, a Republican, posted.

“They are destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men. They have no place in Utah.”

So this move could have an incredibly significant impact on how sports betting is regulated in the US, and should the prediction markets and Kalshi and Polymarket prevail, the individual states ability to regulate gambling, as they have been doing on their own for years, may be eroded.

Here is CFTC Chairman Selig’s post from X on Tuesday, February 17:

Precious metals enjoyed a nice runup in late 2025 and early 2026, with Gold, Silver, and Platinum all trading in record territory. Gold peaked near a record $5,595.47 an ounce before heading back under $5,000 in February while Platinum passed the $2,000 level for the first time since 2008.

Silver established an all-time new high of $121.79 on January 28, 2026, but like Gold, saw some selloff in the first two weeks of February traders took profits. At Robinhood, traders can get involved in the Silver Price February 27, 2026.

On Thursday, February 19, the wisdom of the masses was favoring Silver to close the month at >$68 (87¢), followed by >$69 (85¢), and >$71 (81¢). >$72 (78¢), >$73 (75¢), >$70 (74¢), >$75 (65¢), >$76 (48¢), >$78 (44¢), >$79 (38¢), >$80 (34¢), and >$83 (31¢).

 Click here to trade on the ‘Silver Price February 27, 2026’ at Robinhood

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD-NASDAQ) and the WBD board unanimously approved a deal to sell its studio and streaming business to Netflix (NFLX-NASDAQ) in an all-cash and stock transaction deal valued at around $82.7 billion with WBD shareholders getting $27.75 a share.

Warner. Bros shareholders will vote on the deal in coming months, and it is expected they will accept the deal. But Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY-NASDAQ) and Larry Ellison—the 6th richest person in the world on Forbes—could make another and higher bid for Warner Bros.

The sale of Warner Bros. is expected after the separation of the company’s Discovery Global Network into a separate entity. So "Warner Bros." will consist of the WB studios, HBO, and streaming services and “Discovery Global Network” will be CNN, TNT Sports and cable networks.

The deal is set for Q3 2026. And with Paramount thinking its current offer for Warner Bros. is better than Netflix, shareholders will get the final say. There will be changes by this time next year no matter what. At Robinhood, traders now like Paramount (53¢) over Netflix (36¢) and None (12¢) despite rejecting the verbal Paramount bid ($31 a share) and talks reopening with Netflix.

The prediction market also has an offering (When) ‘Will Paramount Acquire Warner Bros?’ with Before Dec 1, 2026 (58%) seeing the most ‘Yes’ contracts followed by Before Sep 1, 2026 (57%), and Before Jun 1, 2026 (49%).

➤Trading Thoughts: It seems like shareholders will want to get this over with, even if Paramount and Ellison make another over-the-top bid for WB. I think they vote for the Netflix deal after Q3 (JUL-AUG-SEP). Needing reporting time, a September 1 resolution seems a little too quick. I would get down on Netflix now. Trading Picks: Netflix (Bid 35¢—Ask 36¢, Before December 1, 2026 58¢

Click here to trade on ‘Who WIll Successfully Take Over Warner Brothers?’ at Robinhood

We are now less than a month away from the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday March 15 where Conan O’Brien will host the festivities from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST). Let’s continue our weekly look at Oscars winners categories.

In the ‘Best Animated Feature Film?’ market at Coinbase, Entertainment traders have pretty much told the world that KPop Demon Hunters (91%) will be winning the Oscar with Zootopia 2 (8%), Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (3%), Arco (1%), and Elio (1%) just glad to be nominated.

➤Trading Thoughts: This animated musical tale directed by Maggine Kang and Chris Appelhans and produced by Sony Pictures for Netflix of three girls (Rumi, Zoey, Mira) using their singing voices to fight off the evil Honmoon will win. Trading Pick: KPop Demon Hunters, Yes 91¢

 Click here to trade on Best Animated Feature Film Winner at the Academy Awards at Coinbase

We looked at the 2026 American League Champions prediction market at Coinbase in the February 10, 2026 edition of The Prediction Report, now let’s dive in and analyze the Senior Circuit and the 2026 National League Champions at the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchange.

In the 2026 National League Champions market at Coinbase, it’s all about the two-time defending world champion Los Angeles Dodgers with Shohei Ohtani and the champs trading at 44% to win the NL on February 19.

Following Los Doyers are the New York Mets (13%), Atlanta (12%), Philadelphia (11%),

Chicago Cubs (9%), San Diego (6%), Milwaukee (5%), San Francisco (4%), Arizona (3%), Cincinnati (3%), Houston (3%), Miami (2%), Colorado (1%), St Louis (1%) and Washington (1%) all following.

 ➤Trading Thoughts: In the NL, the offseason was good to the already loaded Dodgers with free agent Kyle Tucker (.266, 22 HR, 73 RBI) leaving the Cubs for the sunshine of Chavez Ravine and signing with LA. With a pitching staff from hell (Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan, Sasaki, Díaz) and a solid infield (Freeman, Kim, Betts, Muncy), they will win 100 games.

But who can challenge the Dodgers? Faith in the Mets ever contending again is gone while the Braves haven’t shown consistency and always seem to be dealing with injuries and the Cubs are the Cubs and lost King Tuck. That leaves the Phillies and the Padres, neither team scared of LA.

Buy the Dodgers early (before Spring Training finishes) to win the NL at these prices we won’t be seeing again. The season won’t start for over a month and will end in the Fall, but the smart MLB trader knows to get down on Ohtani and the Dodgers and wait. Trading Pick: LA Dodgers, Yes 44¢

 Click here to trade on the NL Champions at Coinbase

The 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Regular Season starts on this coming Saturday, February 21 with 13 matches on tap as the league kicks off its 31st season. Lionel Messi and Inter Miami CF are the defending MLS champions after defeating Vancouver FC in the 2025 MLS Cup, 3-1.

Messi and Inter Miami CF will face Western Conference powers Los Angeles FC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Bermuda Grass) in Los Angeles on opening day. At Polymarket, traders like LAFC (48%) over Inter Miami CF (30%) with a Draw at 25% with Over 2.5 goals (Yes) at 63¢.

Besides this interconference matchup, MLS Opening Day will also see FC Cincinnati at Atlanta United FC, DC United at the defending Supporters’ Shield champion Philadelphia Union, Houston Dynamo FC at Chicago Fire FC, and Nashville SC at the New England Revolution.

 ➤Trading Thoughts: All handicaps involving matches with Messi need to make sure that the Atomic Flea is healthy, and reports from a week out suggest Messi will miss this opener, so check his status before trading. Without Messi, the Miami attack will suffer and look to others to create.

With Inter Miami CF just expanding into the MLS, these two haven’t played much but The Black and Gold are 3-1-1 lifetime vs Miami, with DP Son Heung-Min and LAFC registering clean sheets in all three wins. Even with an ailing Messi, a tough spot for the Herons. Trading Pick: LAFC 48¢

 Click here to trade on MLS matches at Polymarket

Koa Peat and #4 Arizona (24-2, 11-2 Big 12) head to the Fertitta Center in Houston to battle Kingston Flemings and #2 Houston (23-3, 11-2 Big 12) in a Big 12 Conference brawl on Saturday between two teams expected to dance far in the tournament (ABC, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).

Brayden Burries (15.7 PPG), Tobe Awaka (9.4 RPG), and Arizona are currently the traders favorites at Kalshi and being given an 11% chance (Yes 11¢, No 90¢) to win the Men’s College Basketball Championship with Emanuel Sharp and Houston trading at 9% (Yes 9¢, No 92¢).

➤Trading Thoughts: There are several games on Saturday basketball fans need to commit to, including classic between teams with a combined 47-4 record with the Wildcats the projected #1 overall seed in ESPN’s Bracketology with the Cougars currently sitting on a #2 Joe Lunardi line.

The site always matters and with Houston going a mind-boggling 29-0 at home (13-0 this season) in conference play since joining the Big 12 in the 2023-24 season, and going 72-3 at the Fertitta Center (89.6%) the last 5 seasons. Trading Pick: Houston Moneyline

 Click here to trade on Men’s NCAA College Basketball at Kalshi

Carlos Boozer (23.0 PPG) and #4 Duke (22-2) will face off with Yaxeel Lendeborg (14.3 PPG) and #2 Michigan (23-1) in an ACC-Big Ten battle in the Edward Jones Capital Showcase at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC on Saturday night (ESPN, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST).

College hoops traders at Kalshi are giving Duke a 22% chance of winning the National Championship with Michigan (12%) following 10% behind the Blue Devils but still the traders second choice to prevail in the Big Dance.

➤Trading Thoughts: This series is funny because Michigan claims it's a rivalry while Duke scoffs at the idea. Either way, the Blue Devils are 22-8 in the 30 lifetime meetings, winning the last 3 straight (73-71, 82-75, 79-69), but none of them played in the state of Michigan.

Here, expect Duke to make a case for a #1 seed in the tourney with a win over a 1-loss Michigan team and a real résumé-builder for Naismith Player of the Year favorite Boozer, C Patrick Ngongba II (10.7/6.2) and the Blue Devils. Trading Pick: Duke Moneyline

 Click here to trade on Men’s NCAA College Basketball at Kalshi

In the last game of a day loaded with conference games in Men’s and Women’s College Basketball, #23 BYU (19-7, 7-6 Big 12) hosts #6 Iowa State (23-3, 10-3 in Big 12) at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah in a nice Big 12 matchup on Saturday evening (ESPN, 10:30 EST/9:30 CST/7:30 PST).

NCAB traders at Kalshi are giving BYU just a 2% to win it all with Iowa State trading at 5%. Both teams will definitely be playing in the Big Dance next month with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi's having Iowa State a #2 seed with BYU now projected to be one of the four #6 seeds in his latest Bracketology.

 ➤Trading Thoughts: In Big 12 play last season, BYU beat Iowa State at Ames (88-85, 2 OT) and also beat the Cyclones in the Big 12 Conference Tournament Quarterfinals (96-92). But lifetime, Iowa State is 7-3 vs BYU, winning the first 6 (1931-2014), but going 1-3 the last 4 (2023-2025).

AJ Dybantsa and the Cougars have slipped in the potential March Madness seedings and will want a win here , but Milan Momcilovic F (18.4 PPG), Joshua Jefferson (17.0 PPG) and the Cyclones can win on the road, beating then #1 Purdue at West Lafayette. Trading Pick: Iowa State Moneyline

 Click here to trade on Men’s NCAA College Basketball at Kalshi

The Big 12 Conference has a handful of teams capable of becoming the Men’s College Basketball Champion including #8 Kansas (20-6, 10-3 Big 12) and #3 Houston (23-3, 11-2 Big 12). On Monday night, the two powers meet at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas (ESPN, 9 EST/8 CST/6 PST).

This game will feature two of the best players in NCAAB in Jayhawks G Darryn Peterson (20.5/4.2/1.7) and Cougars G Kingston Flemings (16.6/3.5/5.4), both candidates to be named Naismith Men’s College Basketball Player of the Year and top six picks in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Emanuel Sharp (16.3 PPG) and Houston are currently being given an 11% chance from traders at Kalshi to win the 2026 College Basketball Championship with Flory Bidunga F (14.9/9.0) and Kansas currently trading at 3% (Yes 4¢, No 97¢).

➤Trading Thoughts: The Phog has proved to be a magical place for the Jayhawks as we saw on February 9 when Kansas improved to 40-0 in the Bill Self era playing on ESPN Big Monday, handing then unbeaten Arizona its first loss of the season as the carpet crawlers prevailed.

Besides Florida, there’s no one you want to see coming into your building like Houston, a team HC Kelvin Sampson has had perennially expecting to make Final Fours. The Cougs made the Final Four in 2021, and last year in 2025 where they won before losing to Florida in the championship game.

Here Kansas will have its hands full, but with the butterlike Peterson—make sure he is playing before backing KU—Bidunga, the crowd and that Big Monday magic, the Jayhawks should find a way to win in a gritty game that will be must-watch TV. Trading Pick: Kansas Moneyline

 Click here to trade on Men’s NCAA College Basketball at Kalshi