In what may be great news for the sports contracts traded in prediction markets, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig announced on Thursday, January 29 that the federal agency will “craft new, clear rules to govern prediction markets.”
CFTC
Selig also said he “ordered agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule from 2024 that would have prohibited trades on sports and politics.” He also “directed them to rescind a 2025 advisory that urged prediction markets to exercise caution from offering sports contracts.”
So this means the CFTC is now writing new rules to govern prediction markets, and with the major players in the space stuck in the courts in many states when it comes to even operating or offering sports and politics contracts, there could be no better time to clear up the muddy waters.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig
New CFTC chair Selig said he “wants to revisit how involved the CFTC becomes in those federal district and circuit court cases.” Selig is seeking a joint understanding between SEC on the interpretation of commodity and security options, swaps, and security-based swaps.
The remarks, given at a joint event with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins, were Selig’s first since taking over as the chairman of the CFTC. The Coalition for Prediction Markets liked what they heard.
“By withdrawing uncertain guidance around sports-event contracts and committing to undertake comprehensive rulemaking, the Commission takes a key step to foster market clarity, responsible innovation, and trust in American markets,” a spokesperson for the industry group told CNBC.
Novig Files with CFTC to Become Prediction Market
On January 21, 2026 Novig applied for Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registration to become a prediction market exchange operator. The PM will do business under the name Ludlow Exchange LLC and Novig co-founders Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah directors.
Novig is an unconventional sportsbook and acts as an exchange between users facilitating bets. It claims it is offering a special asset and does not abide by any state gambling laws and does not pay state taxes. The company already has an in-house prediction market trading team.
NOVIG
Getting approval to be a prediction market from the CFTC can take some time with a statutory 180-day review period beginning when the application is considered complete. A full review can take anywhere from 1 to 3 years, so we will see how fast Novig goes through the pipeline.
So a Designated Contract Market (DCM)—an exchange (or boards of trade) operating under the regulatory oversight of the CFTC—for Novig may be somewhere down the yellow brick road, but for now, it’s simply a matter of Novig waiting for Father Time and the CFTC to do their things.
Kalshi Hires Bivona to Lead DC Lobbying Efforts
Prediction market exchange Kalshi has opened an office in Washington, DC and reportedly hired former Biden administration alum John Bivona as its first head of federal government operations to lead lobbying efforts for the New York City-based company.
Bivona had previously worked for Kalshi’s Intersection Government Relations lobbying firm before joining the Biden administration as the first White House liaison at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
After that, Bivona worked at Rasky Partners and then for Intersection Government Relations, the newest outside lobbying firm for Kalshi who first expanded to Washington, DC during the Biden administration when the CFTC started clamping down on event contracts.
Massive SB LX Volume Seen in Prediction Markets
The Super Bowl is over now with the NFC’s Seahawks beating the AFC’s Patriots, 29-13—in a game we picked correctly for you here at TPR on three fronts (Winner, Point Spread, Total)—at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California as the Seattle defense was just too much for New England.
The Big Game also meant big volume for prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, with the latter doing big business on the last football game until August in several conventional and props markets with the popular 32-team Pro Football Champion? market at $500,171,547 after Sunday.
This market was at $161K on Tuesday, but a rush of weekend and in-game trade helped trickle this long market over the $500K mark. In the famous ’Who Will Win the Presidential Election in 2022?’ at Kalshi, there was a record $535,948,943 traded in the first legal election market in US history.
Will another prediction market ever top $536K? And will one ever hit $1 billion in volume? Of course and probably. Prediction markets are still in the infinite stages in the US and interest has just started. And Polymarket still isn’t properly in the pipeline and legal hurdles are everywhere.
Kalshi
There will certainly be sexier Super Bowls than this one we just endured, an offering of field goals for three hours spattered with some 4th quarter scoring to wake those who had fallen asleep. If teams from major markets (NYC, LA, Chicago) played, a new record would be broken at Kalshi.
Remember when thinking about the Pro Football Champion market at Kalshi that the volume isn’t a reflection of all money traded on the Patriots-Seahawks game, but the volume of all 32 NFL teams in a Futures book format dating back months that pares down to two teams and then one winner.
With other markets like Mentions, Bad Bunny’s First Song, Gatorade Color, ’How Many Will Watch The Big Game?’ and more, Kalshi may end up with volume near $1 billion on all related 2026 Super Bowl markets when the final numbers ultimately come out.
@PolymarketTrade
Bruno Mars 'The Romantic' First Week Album Sales?
Popular singer Bruno Mars is scheduled to release his fourth studio album on February 27, titled The Romantic with the first single from the much-anticipated album, “I Just Might,” already coming out on January 9, 2026.
Bruno Mars is also set to head out on the road on his The Romantic Tour of North America and Europe, starting in Las Vegas in April and ending in Vancouver, Canada, in October, with 20 scheduled European dates in-between the tour’s two North America legs.
Polymarket has a market ‘Bruno Mars: ‘The Romantic’ First Week Album Sales?; where traders can bet Yes-No on how many units it will sell. 150K-200K (51%), 400K+ (24%), 200K-250K (22%), 350K-400K (16%), <150K (13%), 250K-300K (10%), and 300K-350K (10%) are the trading ranges.
➤Trading Thoughts: Bruno Mars last and third studio album, 24K Magic, sold 231,000 equivalent album units in its first week of release back in 2016 and was #2 on the Billboard 200. Anticipating 75-90K more seems about right (and a #1 debut). Trading Pick: 150K-200K, Yes 59¢
Oscars 2026: Best Original Screenplay Winner
We have looked at various categories for the 2026 Academy Awards set for Sunday March 15, so let’s take a look at the ‘Best Original Screenplay Winner’ where traders at Polymarket have pretty much declared a winner already with Sinners (81%).
Written, directed, and produced by Ryan Coogler, Sinners is way ahead of Marty Supreme (10%), Sentimental Value (5%), It Was Just an Accident (2%), and Blue Moon (2%) some six weeks out.
➤Trading Thoughts: Expect Sinners, also expected by traders to win the Best Original Score statuette (88%) at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles on March 15 (ABC, 8 EST/5 PST), to take home the Academy award in this category for Coogler. Trading Pick: Sinners, Yes 81¢
Winter Olympics—Women’s Curling: Gold Medal Country
The 2026 Winter Olympics continue in Italy, and one of the more popular events are Men’s and Women’s Curling. At the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, we saw Sweden beat Great Britain in an extra end in the final shine (5-4) to capture the Men’s Gold with Eve Muirhead and Great Britain winning the Women’s Curling Gold overJapan (10-3).
For these Games, Kalshi traders give Canada the best chance (59%) at winning the Gold at with Switzerland (28%), Sweden (10%), Korea Republic (9%), Japan (3%), and China PR (2%) following.
➤Trading Thoughts: Expect Team Homan (Rachel Homan, Tracy Fleury, Emma Miskew, Sarah Wilkes) from Canada to shine bright in Italy after going undefeated in 2025. Behind Skipper Homan, Canada also captured back-to-back world titles and the 2025 Canadian Curling Trials.
Behind 36-year-old Ottawa native Homan, this team has been dominant lately and anything short of a gold for Team Homan and Team Canada in Milano Cortina would be an Italian Ice-y disappointment. Trading Pick: Team Canada, Yes 59¢
2026 American League Champions at Coinbase
Coinbase is online with its own prediction market and the look and navigation on the site looks tremendous. The largest US-based cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase now has PM categories like Sports, Trending, Crypto, Politics, Economics, Entertainment, Financials, Elections, Mentions, Weather, Science and Technology, and others like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood.
In the 2026 American League Champions market at Coinbase, three teams are being given a 15% chance or better to win the Junior Circuit with six others in the 7% to 11% range on February 3.
The Mariners (22%), Yanks (20%), defending AL champion Blue Jays (14%) are favorites with the Red Sox (13%), Astros (10%), Tigers (9%), Orioles (8%), Royals (7%) and Rangers (6%) following.
➤Trading Thoughts: In the AL, the offseason has been good for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Toronto, who signed Japanese star 3B (Kaz Okamoto) and shored up its pitching staff, coming to deals with Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Tyler Rogers, Cody Ponce, and trading for Chase Lee (Tigers).
The Tigers should win the AL Central division in MLB with the Astros, Rangers, and Astros fighting it out for the AL West. I don;t feel the Yankees and Red Sox have done enough in the offseason and the Orioles are always expected to shine but don’t. Trading Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Yes 14¢
UEFA Champions League Winner Still Wide Open
The League Phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tournament is over, leaving 24 clubs fighting for the most coveted trophy in Europe as the Knockout Phase is set to kick off. Now is the best time to update the trading numbers and make a pick or two before the Round of 16 begins.
At Kalshi, Soccer traders still like the usual suspects Arsenal (21%), Bayern Munich (17%), Barcelona (14%), defending champions Paris Saint-Germain (10%), Mo Salah and Liverpool (9%), Erling Haaland and Manchester City (9%), Real Madrid (8%), and Chelsea (5%).
Longshots at the exchange include Atlético Madrid (3%), Inter Milan (3%), Tottenham Hotspur (3%), Borussia Dortmund (1%), Juventus (1%), and Newcastle United (1%).
Kalshi
➤Trading Thoughts: Last season PSG had a dream run, but don’t expect Les Parisens to repeat this time around. Perennial powerhouses Real Madrid, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Inter Milan are struggling, so for me, this is a three-cub race four months out from the UCL Final in May.
The best teams in the EPL, La Liga, and Bundesliga—Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich—should battle it out this season and with Ferran Torres, Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski, Rapinha, and Dani Olmos, Barça (8-0-1 January, 27 GF-7 GA) is really loaded. Trading Pick: Barcelona, Yes 14¢
#12 Purdue at #5 Nebraska on Tuesday Night
Braden Smith and #12 Purdue (19-4, 9-3 in Big Ten) travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to battle #5 Nebraska (21-2, 10-2 Big Ten) at the Pinnacle Bank Arena on Tuesday night for a great Big Ten Conference collision from the Cornhusker State (FS1, 7 EST/6 CST/5 MST/4 PST).
College Basketball traders at Kalshi are backing Pryce Sandfort (17.4 PPG) and host Nebraska (52%) over visitors Purdue (48%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Cornhuskers started the season off 20-0 before losing at Michigan and to Illinois, so we will definitely be seeing Nebraska in the Big Dance in a month. When these two met at West Lafayette last year, the Boilermakers won 104-68 in a blowout in the Hoosier State.
Here, we can expect a tight game throughout, with Trey Kaufman-Renn (13.1 PPG), and Fletcher Loyer (12.4 PPG) going bucket-for-busket with the Huskers. The Boilermakers are 19-7 lifetime vs Nebraska, outscoring them by an average of 8.2 PPG. Trading Pick: Purdue 47¢
Bayern Battles RB Leipzig in German Cup Wednesday
German Supercup (DFB-Pokal) play resumes as Harry Kane (5 goals) and heavies Bayern Munich host Christoph Baumgartner (4 goals) and RB Leipzig at Allianz Arena (Hybrid Grass) in Munich, Germany in the tournament’s last Quarterfinal on Wednesday (ESPN+, 2:45 EST/11:45 PST).
GK Manuel Neuer and Bayern Munich advanced to this point by beating Union Berlin at Berlin in the Round of 16 (2-1) of 2025-26 DFB-Pokal while RB Leipzig defeated 1. FC Magdeburg at home in Leipzig (3-1) to earn this midweek fixture in Bavaria where it rains beer and snows bratwurst.
At Polymarket, Bayern Munich (75%) is the overwhelming choice of Soccer traders over RB Leipzig (11%) with a Draw at 15% with the Over 3.5 goals scored trading at 57c (Yes).
➤Trading Thoughts: ln Bundesliga play this season, Serge Gnabry and Bayern Munich are 2-0-0 vs RassenBallsport Leipzig e.V., clipping the Red Bulls’ wings at Allianz in August (6-0) and drubbing RB Leipzig at Leipzig last month (6-0). Bayern is 4-1-0 the last 5 vs RBL, outscoring them 21-6.
When these two clubs last met in the German Supercup in 2023 RB Leipzig won 3-0, but Die Bayern are the 20-time winners in this historic competition and look to win it again, after last doing so in 2019-20—an eternity for a club like Bayern. Trading Pick: Bayern Munich -1.5, 58¢
Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 Starting QB in 2026?
With Kansas City Chiefs starting QB Patrick Mahomes suffering a season-ending ACL/LCL injury against the Chargers in NFL Week 15 and undergoing rehab this Winter, many are wondering if the 30-year-old future Hall of Famer will be the team’s starter come this September.
In the ‘Chiefs Week 1 Starting QB in 2026?’ exchange at Polymarket, traders are behind veteran Patrick Mahomes (80%) to be in the saddle come NFL Regular Season Week #1 when KC tries to rebound after failing to make the NFL Playoffs after five appearances in the last six Super Bowls.
Following the Texas Tech product are Chris Oladokun (37%), the even more veteran Joe Flacco (34%), and journeyman Gardner Minshew (34%) who filled in for Mahomes when he went out. Mahomes had surgery in mid-December and told AP his rehab was “hitting all the checkpoints.”
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts: Targeting a Week 1 return was always Mahomes and the Chiefs goal when they saw their superstar go down last season. Who KC’s week 1 opponent will be remains to be seen with the NFL releasing schedules still three months in mid-May.
"I want to be ready for Week 1. The doctors said I could," said Mahomes, "but I can't predict what happens throughout the process. That's the goal, to play Week 1 and have no restrictions. You want to be out there healthy and give us the best chance to win.”
Even though the last NFL season just ended and the next one is far away, logic dictates that Mahomes is back for Week 1. And whether or not TE Travis Kelce returns for another season may be a bigger future mystery. Trading Pick: Patrick Mahomes 93¢
