First it was the courts that drew the attention from prediction markets, then it was the media fawning over them, and now, the attention is back in the courts and both houses of Congress with the government and lawmakers looking to harness these new exchanges which do need regulation.
Libertarians may want a hands off approach to something as novel as prediction markets, not too different from legalized gambling but unique enough in its nature to carve out a cool little trading niche for those wishing to try to profit from future outcomes in various endeavours of all types.
But when we’re talking about betting on wars or death or other sensitive things and we see rumors of insider trading in these war (and oil) markets, it’s hard not to want the Feds to get involved so that the integrity of this new industry can be protected. Some things still need to- be sacred.
And who wants to trade in tainted markets, be they War markets or Reality TV markets?
US Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA), John Curtis (R-UT), Todd Young (R-IN), and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) introduced the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, prohibiting federal elected officials and government employees from using insider information when buying PM contracts last month.
“Public service should never be a pathway to personal profit based on inside information,” sen. Young said. “Recent activity in prediction markets has raised real concerns that individuals with access to sensitive, nonpub;ic information could exploit that advantage for financial gain.”
“Our bill will prohibit elected officials, staff, and executive branch employees from trading on prediction market event contracts based on information acquired as part of their official duties.”
Schiff and Curtis also introduced "The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” we talked about in Volume 55 of The Prediction Report. Slotkin talked about the irregular trading issue in prediction markets on Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO, Fridays, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT) on March 27, 2026.
“If you’re the Iranians, and you’re sitting there and you’re like, ‘Huh, I notice there are a bunch of bets coming in for a war tomorrow,’ it’s like, ‘Oh shit. We’re about to have a war...’ it's a bad thing all around.”
Polymarket Takes Down Crew Member Rescue Market
After the shooting down of a US F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jet in Iran last week, reports indicated that one of the two crew members onboard had been rescued but that the other was still missing in the Khuzestan Province and part of a search and rescue mission by the US military.
In yet another poor example of the creation and offering to trading to the public of a polymarket by industry biggies Polymarket, a ‘US Confirms Pilots Rescued by...?’ market was opened up before receiving some public backlash on Thursday, April 2 and Friday, April 3 before being taken down.
On Friday, April 3, Tasnim, the state-run agency in Iran reported that the search for the missing crew member had “so far been unsuccessful, while Fars News was reporting that a reward was being offered to any Iranians capturing an “enemy pilot or pilots.”
Congressman Seth Moulton (D-MA) became the first member of Congress to ban members of his staff from holding any “positions on political, legislative, regulatory, geopolitical outcomes, or any information that is learned in an official capacity” by trading on prediction markets.
“Prediction markets have become a playground for corrupt insiders who are able to place bets on things like election outcomes, wars, and even the deaths of public figures,” Moulton said. “This is creating a perverse incentive structure that poses a genuine threat to American society today.”
Arizona Tribal Gaming Not Big Fan of Prediction Markets
The war between casinos and legalized gambling and prediction markets in the state of Arizona continues, with news coming out the Arizona Department of Gaming (ADG) revealed it’s being funded by tribal gaming in the Grand Canyon State where 16 tribes operate some 26 casinos.
The report indicated that tribal gaming had increased contributions to the ADG, giving more than $33 million in the last quarter (FY26), a healthy 8.3% increase over the same quarter last year. Hey, lawyers eat lobster too.
The state regulators at ADG received $3 million in “running costs” to help in the state’s ongoing war against Kalshi with Arizona already filing criminal charges against the company and ceasing trading operations on the platform this year.
So you can buy tickets in the Arizona State Lottery, bet on the Diamondbacks at an online sportsbook or go to a tribal casino and play slots or roulette, but trading on who will win this season of Top Chef or the temperature in Los Angeles won’t be in the cards for Arizonans. Can’t we all just get along?
Jackie Johnson, the Director of the ADG said in a press release, “Tribal gaming contributions provide critical support for state and local initiatives that help keep communities across Arizona safe, strong and thriving.” But not all the money tribal gaming sends to the ADG is spent on lawyers and court costs.
The Instructional Improvement Fund and education got more than $16 million, the Emergency Services Fund received about $8 million, and the Arizona Wildlife and Conservation Fund and the Tourism Fund each got $2.3 million with $600,00 going towards problem gambling addiction education and prevention.
Prediction Market Kalshi in the Courts This Spring
This Spring will be a challenging one for the team of lawyers working on Kalshi cases here, there, and everywhere with the prediction market giant facing six oral arguments over the coming month or so with the possibility of the popular New York City-based prediction market losing all six.
We probably won’t see a market for this. But who knows. We live in a movie deep in a strange dream and seem like moths watching screens of many sizes, being blown hard by the winds of change. Will US troops headed to Mars to either capture, go to war, or blow up the Red Planet? Stay tuned, Bubba.
On Friday April 3 in the State Court in Carson City and the Nevada Gaming Control Board v Kalshi case, the Judge Jason Woodbury granted a preliminary injunction which extended the ban in the Silver State from serving up event-based contracts without a Nevada state gaming license.
Kalshi now has until May 4 to set up geofencing and geolocation measures to totally prevent residents in the state of Nevada from accessing the Kalshi platform for these types of trades.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also got into the fray in Arizona and the Trump administration sued the Grand Canyon State, saying it has no right to regulate prediction markets and that it infringes on the federal agencies authority to regulate PMs like Kalshi.
When it comes to some important things like FEMA and education, this administration wants states to have the power but when it comes to betting and PM’s, time for the feds to make it a national thing?
Here are the remaining upcoming court dates this Spring for Kalshi:
➤Thursday, April 19, Ninth Circuit
Kalshi, Robinhood, & Crypto.com appeals v Nevada consolidated
➤Thursday, April 30, Ninth Circuit
Blue Lake Rancheria v Kalshi
➤Monday, May 4, State Supreme Court
Massachusetts v Kalshi
➤Wednesday, May 7, Fourth Circuit
Kalshiex LLC v Martin (Maryland)
2026 NBA Rookie of the Year Race Flips on a Dime
No one brings more strange drama to the scene than the Duke Men’s basketball program. And last weekend was no different with the Blue Devils losing to UConn on a Boozer Beater in the Elite Eight after leading by as many as 19 points against the Huskies in their East Regional showdown.
As if that wasn’t enough, former Duke star and now NBA rookie and #1 pick Cooper Flagg had amazing back-to-back statistical games for the Mavericks to flip the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year race from none other than former Blue Devils teammate Kon Knueppel on the Hornets.
After his injury, it looked like Flagg was a dead fish in this futures market, and trades quickly rushed in to buy Knueppel ‘Yes’ contracts, vaulting the Charlotte SG into the lead in both prediction markets and sportsbooks in the US after several outstanding performances.
But Flagg was not dead and although his team may not have much to play for, it’s quite evident the Dallas rookie is intent on winning the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year Award one year after winning the 2025 Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year award as the best baller in the NCAA DI ranks.
On Wednesday, April 8, DraftKings had Cooper Flagg priced at -245 with Kon Knueppel at +138 after the Hornets gunner looked like he was probably going to win the award. But not so fast, Pedro, This is 2026. We may have alien disclosure and an AIDS cure by Sunday. You never know these days.
Two days before Flagg’s explosion, Knueppel was -1,800 (bet $1,800 to win $100) at DK. Then Flagg has games of 51/6/3 (PTS/REB/AST) vs the Magic and 45/9/8 against LBJ and the Lakers. Statistically, Flagg (21.1/6.6/4.6) is better than former Duke roommate Knueppel (18.7/5.3/3.4).
At the two most popular prediction markets on the planet, PF Flagg was trading at 66% at Kalshi and at 63% at Polymarket with Knueppel trading at 33% and 31% respectively on Wednesday. This last flip was probably the real last flip and it’s hard to see Knueppel (6-6, 25) rallying enough now.
Knueppel, who leads the NBA in 3-pointers, got as high as 88.6% on Kalshi (April 3). And as amazing as all of this is, two Tobacco Road roomies fighting it out for the NBA Rookie of the Year award a year after school, is that Knueppel just turned 20 and Flagg is still just a teenager (19).
English Premier League Relegation Battle on Friday
Two clubs fighting for their lives in the top flight of English soccer,18th-place West Ham United (7-8-16) and 20th-place Wolverhampton Wanderers (3-8-20) meet at London Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in London, England on Friday (USA Network, Universo, 3 ET/2 CT/1 MT/12 PT).
The bottom line is that no AI could ever write or process properly the context of the Point Differential (PD) and how many matches are left in the English Premier League (EPL) season to produce words confidently saying that Wolves have already been relegated and we all know it.
Chasing the 17th place club hasn’t been on Wolverhampton's mind and last place was all but guaranteed many weeks ago and the EFL Championship is where Wolves will build a new den. At Kalshi, traders like West Ham (53%) over Wolverhampton (23%) with a Tie (Draw) at 26%.
➤Trading Thoughts: One of the Wolves 3 wins came against West Ham, and 3 of the club’s measly 24 goals were scored in that 3-0 Wolverhampton win at home at Molineux Stadium on January 3, so just because Wolves are having a nightmare season doesn’t justify suggesting the Hammers. Trading Pick: None
Inter Miami Hosting RBNY at Nu Stadium on Saturday
The 2026 MLS Regular Season continues with a full slate of action this weekend, including a match between Lionel Messi and defending MLS Cup Inter Miami CF (3-1-1) and Red Bull New York (2-1-2) at the new Nu Stadium (Grass) in Miami on Saturday (Apple TV, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT).
The inaugural match at Nu Stadium at Miami Freedom Park was last Saturday (April 4) where Miami hosted Austin FC in an interconference fixture at the 26,700-sea, David Beckham-inspired facility which features a “Leo Messi Stand.”
Polymarket traders are betting on hosts Inter Miami CF (65¢) over visitors New York Red Bulls (14¢) with the Draw trading at 21¢. The hosts have one the best three players on Soccer ever in Messi (Inter Miami CF) but the new $350 million stadium will be the star here.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last five meetings between these two Eastern Conference sides, we see that Inter Miami is 4-0-1 (W-D-L) with Messi and the Herons outscoring the Red Bulls 17-8. In that span, Inter Miami has won three straight and outscored RBNY 15-4.
In games at Miami—the now old Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale—the Herons went 2-0 with veteran legend Luis Suárez scoring 4 times and Messi tallying twice. Messi has 4 goals in the last 3 meetings and has found the back of the net in 4 of those 5.
Inter Miami CF won 22 of 27 at Home in 2025 in matches in all competitions and tied their only match (2026 Concacaf Champions Cup) heading into the Nu Stadium opener on April 4. Trading Pick: Inter Miami CF, Yes 66¢
Heavyweights Fury, Makhmudov Get it On Saturday
Out of retirement (again), Heavyweight Tyson Fury (34-2-1, 24 KOs) returns to the ring to battle Russian contender Arslanbek Makhmudov (21-2, 19 KOs) in a 12-round Heavyweight bout from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England, UK on Saturday (Netflix, MAIN CARD—7 pm BST (2 pm EDT/1 pm CDT/11 am PDT).
After retiring in January 2025 after losing back-to-back fights to Oleksandr Usyk, the 37-year-old former champion from England announced sees this fight against Makhmudov, a 26-year-old Russian based in Canada, as a “stepping stone” to a potential fight with Anthony Joshua.
“Excited to be back. Heart’s always been and always will be in boxing. Someone go tell the king (Joshua) that the ace is back!” Fury said of the Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov event which is being promoted by The Ring Magazine.
In October, Makhmudov defeated British Heavyweight David Allen for his second straight win. Traders at Kalshi overwhelmingly like Tyson Fury (79%) over Arslanbek Makhmudov (21%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Fury sees this bout in Jolly Old England as a stepping stone but Makhmudov will see it as a chance for the big upset and better paydays in the future having a win over a big name like Tyson Fury on his resume. Trading Pick: Arslanbek Makhmudov, Yes 21¢
UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg on Saturday Night
On Saturday night, UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg will air from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida where Light Heavyweights Jifi Procházka (32-5-1) and Carlos Ulberg (14-1-0) will square up in the octagon in the main event for the vacant title in the weight class (CBS, Paramount+, 5 EDT/4 CDT/2 PDT).
In the night’s co-main event from UFC, champion Joshua Van (16-2-0) will face Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0) in a Flyweight Championship fight. Traders at Polymarket like Taira (63c) over Van (40c). In a Heavyweight bout, Curtis Blaydes (19-5-0) takes on Josh Hokit (8-0-0) where traders like Blaydes 59c over Hokit 44c.
In two Light Heavyweight bouts, Dominick Reyes drinks Johnny Walker and Azamat Murzakanov faces Paulo Costa while two Featherweight fights see Patricio Pitbull (37-8-0) fighting Aaron Pico (13-5-0) with Pico the 73c-38c favorite and Cub Swanson (30-14-0) meeting Nate Landwehr (18-7-0) with Landwehr the 59c-43c favorite.
In a Lightweight bout on the Preliminary card, Mateusz Gamrot (25-4) battles Esteban Ribovics (15-2-0) where traders at Polymarket give Gamrot a 64% chance of beating Ribovics (37%) while in a Welterweight bout, Kevin Holland (28-15-0) meets Randy Brown (20-7-0) where we see Holland a slight 51%-50% favorite three days out.
In a Middleweight bout, Kelvin Gastelum will face Vicente Luque and in a Women’s Strawweight fight, Tatiana Suarez (12-1-0) will meet Loopy Godinez (14-5-0) in a great fight on the Preliminary card in which traders have made Suarez (60%) the somewhat solid favorite over Godinez (41%).
➤Trading Thoughts: After an injury sidelined him, Procházka has made the long climb back and here he has the chance to reclaim his title. In 2025, Procházka registered TKOs vs. former champ Jamahal Hill and former UFC challenger Khalil Rountree Jr after failing on two chances vs Pereira. Too tough to call. Trading Pick: Aaron Pico, Yes 72¢
Chelsea Hosting Manchester City in EPL Match Sunday
It’s a two-club race in the 2026 English Premier League with the usual suspects Arsenal and Manchester City dueling for the silverware while other teams in England’s top flight of football either aim for a UEFA Champions League berth or to avoid the dreaded Relegation.
Fee-fi-fo-fum, I smell the blood of an Englishman. On Sunday, Manchester City (18-7-5) travels to West London and Stamford Bridge (Grass) to face the electric João Pedro (14 goals) and scuffling Chelsea (13-9-9) in a match important to both (USA Network, Telemundo. 11:30 EDT/8:30 PDT).
Polymarket traders are backing Erlin haaland (22 goals) and Manchester City (46%) over Cole Palmer (9 goals), Enzo Fernández (8 goals) and hosts Cheslsea (31%) with a Draw at 25% and the Total (goals) at 2.5 (Over, Yes, 64¢, No 37¢). The Both Teams To Score Prop (‘Yes’) is priced at 66¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: Chelsea has struggled recently vs the Citizens, going a winless 0-4-1 (11 GF-4 GA) in the last 5 meetings with 2 Clean Sheets. A larger sample size shows that MCFC is 7-3-0 in the L10 (counting a Friendly) vs the Blues with 5 CS’s and the Blues last win in 2021. Trading Picks: Manchester City, Yes 46¢, Over 2.5 goals, Yes 64¢
NASCAR Revving It Up at Historic Bristol on Sunday
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series sees the 8th race of the new season with the Food City 400 from the tight corners of Bristol Motor Speedway (Concrete) and Thunder Valley in Bristol, Tennessee on Sunday afternoon (TV—FS1, PRN, Radio—SiriusXM, HBO Max, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
In Race 7 and the race at Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia, Chase Elliot emerged victorious after Tyler Reddick won his fourth race of the year a week earlier at Darlington. This weekend, NASCAR traders at Kalshi are backing Denny Hamlin (18%) to win the checkered flag.
Following in trading order as of April 8 were Kyle Larson (16%), Ryan Blaney (15%), Christopher Bell (14%), Ty Gibbs (9%), Chase Elliot (9%), Brad Keselowski (9%), Tyler Reddick (8%), Chase Briscoe (7%), Joey Logano (6%), William Byron (5%), and Carson Hocevar (5%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, trader’s current favorite Kyle Larson and his Chevrolet won the 2025 Food City 500, but Larson has yet to impress in 2026. Sooner or later, Joey Logano (Ford) will win a race this season, and at 3¢, is a worthy longshot consideration at The Last Great Colosseum.
Handicapping the manufacturers, Toyotas have won 5 of the 7 NASCAR Cup Series races with Reddick (DAY-ATL-COA-DAR) and Hamlin (LVS) taking the checkered flags with Chase Elliott (MAR) winning in a Chevy and Ryan Blaney (PHO) finishing first in a Ford in the Valley of the Sun.
At Kalshi, you can also trade on Top 3 Finish, Top 5 Finish, Top 10 Finish, Top 20 Finish, and other Futures markets like Drivers’ Championship, and Fastest Lap. Trading Picks: Denny Hamlin, Yes 18¢, Christopher Bell, Yes 14¢, Tyler Reddick, Yes 8¢, Joey Logano, Yes 6¢, William Byron, Yes 5¢
Click here to trade on 2026 NASCAR Food City 500 Winner at Kalshi
Braves Hosting Guardians on Sunday Night MLB on NBC
NBC has started airing Major League Baseball (MLB) games this season, and the Peacock network will air an Interleague game between the Guardians (8-5) and Braves (8-5) from Truist Park (Seashore Paspalum, Platinum T&E) in Atlanta on Sunday (NBC, Peacock, 7:20 EDT/4:20 PDT).
Cleveland RF Chase DeLautier had a magnificent opening week (.353, 4 HR, 5 RBI, 1.412 OPS) and the visitors will need his bat against Atlanta who returned home after a 7-game Road Trip out West vs the Diamondbacks ( series tie 2-2) and ageless Mike Trout and the Angels (ATL 2-1).
MLB traders at Kalshi give Ronald Acuña Jr and the Atlanta Braves just a 3.6% chance to win the 2026 World Series with the defending AL Central champions Cleveland Guardians trading at just 0.8% and contract prices so low you need a microscope and trifocals to actually see them.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Braves swept the Guardians in Cleveland last year (17 RF-5 RA) and Atlanta has won 4 straight vs Cleveland with the Braves 8-2 the last 10 meetings vs the Guardians but just 1-2 here in Atlanta (7-0 at Cleveland). Lean Chief Wahoo. Game Trading Pick: Braves, Yes
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➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the NBA Play-In Tournament, updated 2026 NBA Championship numbers, and the 2026 NBA Coach of the Year Award, Prediction markets issuing Bans on Athletes and Politicians, Next Week’s Earnings Calendar, the NHL Adams Award winner, how a mistake by a UFC announcer profited one smart trader previews of all four Legs 2 of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals, and a preview of the PGA RBC Heritage. Thank you for subscribing.