The four-day (April 14-17) 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament begins tonight (Tuesday) and continues through Friday as games between the Eastern and Western conferences 7-10 seeds determine who moves on as the No. 7 and 8 seeds in the NBA Playoffs which tip off this Saturday, April 18.
The No. 9 teams in both conferences will host the No. 10 team and whoever loses is done while the winning team advances to the final stage of the Play-In tournament. And the No. 7 teams in both conferences will host the No. 8 teams and whoever loses still gets a shot to make the 16 teams.
The teams that lose these No. 7 vs No. 8 matchups will play host to the winners of the No. 9 vs No. 10 with both losing teams eliminated in the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference. Prime Video will be the exclusive carrier of this still somewhat new addition to the NBA.
In the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament, the #7-seed 76ers face the #8-seed Magic and the #9-seed Hornets play the #9 Heat. Whoever wins as the #7 faces the Celts in Round 1 while the #1 Pistons get the #8-winner. The #3 Knicks get the #6 Raptors while the #4 Cavs get the #5 Hawks.
In the Western Conference Play-In Tournament, the #7-seed Suns meet the #8-seed Trail Blazers and #9-seed LAC faces the #9 Dubs. The #7 Play-In winner gets the #2 Spurs while the #8-winner faces #1 OKC. The #3 Nuggets get the #6 Timberwolves while the #4 Lakers face the #5 Rockets.
On Tuesday, the Hornets host the Heat (PRIME, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT) followed by the Suns hosting the Trail Blazers (PRIME, 10 EDT/7 PDT). On Wednesday, the 76ers will host the Magic (PRIME, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT) followed by the Clippers hosting the Warriors (PRIME, 10 EDT/7 PDT).
NBA Coach of the Year Award Winner a Done Deal?
After all these years, the Detroit Pistons seem to have gotten their groove back, with the team that calls the Motor City home and plays in the Eastern Conference and the Central Division finally tasting some well-deserved success after so many seasons of disappointment.
By April 6, the Pistons (57-21) had accomplished so many things like notching their first 50-win season and first Central Division title since 2008, their second straight NBA Playoff berth, and the key #1 seed in the Eastern Conference, securing homecourt advantage through the Postseason.
The 47-year-old Bickerstaff—son of Bernie Bickertsaff—is a big reason why Detroit has gone from rags to riches. At Polymarket, traders are behind JB Bickerstaff (62%) in the NBA Coach of the Year Winner market with Joe Mazzulla (32%) and Mitch Johnson (2%) also in consideration.
➤Trading Thoughts: There are many reasons to like former Oregon State and Minnesota player Bickerstaff, and it’s probably a matter of price now for those lukewarm PM traders, but this seems like a good spot to try to profit on all three markets (Head Coaches). Let’s analyze exactly why.
The Pistons nailed down the #1 seed and will be in the NBA Playoffs and have the best Home Record in the East (30-9), a conference where the Knicks, Celtics, and Cavaliers were thought to be the favorites. How? That do-it-all Cade Cunningham (24.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 9.9 APG) dude.
Despite what Mazzulla’ done with the C’s (56-26) and what Johnson’s done with the Spurs (62-19), Bickerstaff guided Detroit to a 13-game winning streak and kept them winning and confident with star Cunningham out injured. Trading Picks: Bernie Bickerstaff, Yes 64.7¢, Mitch Johnson, No 98.2¢
Kalshi Victorious in Huge Appeal in New Jersey
On Monday, April 6, prediction market heavyweights Kalshi finally had a victory in the courtroom when the 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 that state of New Jersey gaming regulators don’t have the jurisdiction to enforce state law in the state’s claim Kalshi is offering sports betting.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Chairman Michael Selig have already sued three states (Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois) over prediction market regulation as this battle between states thinking they have power and the CFTC having exclusive regulatory rights.
In March, regulators in the Garden State sent a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi and the prediction market quickly sued the state. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport reacted to the ruling in a statement.
“We profoundly disagree with the decision allowing certain companies to offer sports gambling in our States without following the careful gaming rule that everyone else follows. We’ll continue standing with our colleagues fighting off similar challenges in their States.”
For now, sports-contract trading at Kalshi has returned to New Jersey. On June 11, 2018, NJ legalized sports betting after the Supreme Court ruled in Murphy v. NCAA on May 14, 2018 in a landmark decision that struck down the PAPSA law prohibiting sports betting in most US states.
Iran Ceasefire Traders Reap Profits in New Accounts
Three new accounts on Polymarket bet on peace, buying ‘Yes’ contracts on a ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 7, and they made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits when an announcement was made.
The three bought “Yes” contracts on Polymarket’s US-Iran Ceasefire market some 26 hours before the announcement of President Trump’s conditional two-week ceasefire agreement for the conflict affecting many on the planet because of the Strait of Hormuz and closed shipping waters.
The wallets had bets with (‘Yes’) probabilities in a range between 2.9% and 10.3% and they profited a reported $663,000.
The timing of the trades and precise date traded again opens up the debate over potential insider trading within the government itself possibly on these still new platforms, with politicians recently taking aim at prediction markets for these suspicious trades by new accounts.
A Very Busy Earnings Report Week on the Stock Markets
Several major companies will be reporting earnings this week, and traders on some prediction markets have a chance to trade on whether or not these companies will beat street estimates. It may not be a sports market, but it is a perfect market for those interested in this business niche.
Goldman Sachs (GS) reported 2026 Q1 earnings before the market opened on Monday while rivals JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Carmax (CMX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Citigroup (C) all reported 2026 Q1 earnings before the market opened on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BOA), and PNC (PNC) all report before the bell while on Thursday, Charles Schwab (SCHW), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), US Bancorp (USB), and PepsiCo (PEP) all reporting 2026 Q1 earnings before the market opens on Thursday.
Traders at Polymarket are betting ‘Yes’ that PepsiCo beats the street's estimate for its Q1 2026 earnings (72%). You can access the PepsiCo conference call on the Q1 2026 earnings at the company’s investor relations website. The call will start around 8:15 am EDT (5:15 PDT).
Real pros will watch the PepsiCo conference call on Thursday with a big bag of Nacho Cheese Doritos and a cold Pepsi, even at the crack of dawn. Trading Pick: PepsiCo to beat Estimates, Yes 72¢
NHL Adams Award Winner Looks Like Two-Man Race
The 2025-26 NHL Regular Season continues to wind down and will end on Thursday (April 16) with the puck dropping on the 16-team 2026 NHL Playoffs on Saturday, April 18. The next edition of The Prediction Report on Friday will feature the start of the NHL Postseason.
The NHL’s Head Coach of the Year award essentially—the NHL Jack Adams Award—sees Kalshi traders backing only coaches from the Eastern Conference in the Sabres Lindsey Ruff (86%), the Lightning’s Jon Cooper (11%), and the Canadiens’ Martin St Louis (5%).
Buffalo (46-23-8, +35 GD), Tampa Bay (48-22-6, +66 GD), and Montréal (45-22-10, +27 GD) are fighting for the best record in the conference along with the Hurricanes (49-22-6, +47 GD)
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a two-coach race with Cooper having the better team and the statistically more impressive season on the ice while Ruff has really turned a Sabres (24-10-4 at Home) franchise around after years of mediocrity, and the writers who vote will like that.
Both clubs will make the NHL Playoffs and both could realistically win the Stanley Cup, although traders are giving the Lightning (13%) a much better chance of winning the 2026 Stanley Cup than the Sabres (6%). This pick went up 32¢ from time written. Sorry. Trading Pick: Lindy Ruff, Yes 86¢ (up from 54c)
UFC Announcer Mistake Yields Trader Nice $67K Profit
Paying total attention and knowing what was exactly said or exactly happened in a specific outcome can sometimes be a pot of gold at the end of the prediction market rainbow and one wise UFC trader profited big from such a reality at the UFC Fight Night on March 28, 2026.
After Tyrell Fortune defeated Marcin Tybura in their heavyweight fight on the Preliminary card at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, announcer Bruce Buffer announced Tybura as the winner and the market quickly bonded to 99¢.
Immediately, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) called Fortune back into the octagon in the Emerald City and apologized and corrected his announcing mistake. Oops. So sorry. My bad.
Meanwhile, a savvy trader at Polymarket bought 67,608 shares on Fortune at 1¢ and made a quick $66,898.56 (9,895%) from a $676 trade from simply paying attention to the inefficiency. Respect.
Atlético Hosting Barcelona in UCL Leg 2 on Tuesday
Spanish La Liga heavyweights Barcelona (5-1-2, 21 GF-14 GA into Round of 16) have a huge Leg 2 against LALIGA rivals Atlético Madrid (5-1-2, 21 GF-14 GA) when they meet at Riyadh Air Metropolitano (SURFACE) in Madrid on Wednesday evening (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
In Leg 1 of their Quarterfinals series at Camp Nou (GrassMaster Hybrid Grass) in Barcelona, Spain on Wednesday, April 8, Julián Alvarez stayed red-hot, scoring at the 55’ mark to lead Atlético Madrid to a 2-0 win over Fermín López, Marcus Rashford, Lamine Yamil, and Barça.
Polymarket traders are backing Robert Lewandowski and visitors Barcelona (54%) over hosts Atlético Madrid (27%) with a Draw trading at 22% and the Total (goals) at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 48¢, No 53¢). The Both Teams To Score Prop (‘Yes’) is priced at 68¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: Veteran Lewandowski and the Catalans are still without Rapinha (Hamstring) and now chasing a 2-0 aggregate deficit, meaning Barcelona will need to score first to gain the momentum and put the pressure on Los Rojiblancos.
Looking at the last six H2H meetings between these two, we see that Barça is now 4-1-1 vs Rojiblancos (11 GF-9 GA) and 2-1-0 the last 3 at home, outscoring Atleti 6-3 (2025-2026). Atléti will have played Barça three times in 11 days with Barça winning 2-1 on April 4 in a LALIGA match.
With so much pressure on getting the 2 goals back, expect the Catalans to make some mistakes on the attack, opening up chances for Atlético chances on the counter, and with Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann, and Alexander Sørloth, 2 goals may mean adios. Trading Pick: Atlético Madrid, Yes 26¢
Liverpool Welcoming PSG For UCL Leg 2 on Tuesday
EPL icons Liverpool (6-0-2, 20 GF-8 GA) host to French Ligue 1 titans and defending UCL champs Paris Saint-Germain (4-2-2, 21 GF-11 GA) in Leg 2 of their UCL series at Anfield (GrassMaster) in Liverpool on Tuesday (Paramount+, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT). This is the day, your life will surely change.
In Leg 1 of this 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals series at Parc de Princes in Paris, France last Wednesday where your third baguette is free, PSG shut out Mo Salah and the Reds, 2-0, in a match that could have been much worse for the visitors heading back to Merseyside.
Polymarket traders are buying ‘Yes’ contracts on host Liverpool FC (40%) over visitors Paris Saint-Germain (40%) at Anfield with a Draw trading at 23% and the Total (goals) at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 66¢, No 35¢). The Both Teams To Score Prop is priced at 67¢ (‘Yes’).
➤Trading Thoughts: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (8 goals), Vitinha (6 goals), Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Les Parisens embarrassed Chelsea and are now trying to dispose of Liverpool, and doing so at The Kop will be harder than the champions want but easier if they can simply score first.
In Leg 1, Liverpool only had 24% of the Time of Possession and could only muster 3 Shots, and 0 on goal. PSG had 18 Shots and 6 SOG with 76% TOP and could have scored 4 to 6 times in Paris. The winner will face the winner of the RM-BM Semifinal. Trading Pick: Paris Saint-Germain, Yes 40¢
Sporting CP at Arsenal in UEFA CL Leg 2 Wednesday
Portuguese club Sporting CP (5-2-2, 17 GF-11 GA) will face EPL champions Arsenal (8-0-0, 23 GF-4 GA) at Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in North London, England on Wednesday, April 15 (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). The winner will advance to the UEFA CL Quarterfinals.
In Leg 1 at Estádio José Alvalade Lisbon, Portugal Round of 16 series last week, Sporting CP began Free Fallin’ in a 1-0 loss after a late Gunners goal rippled the calm waters of what had been a 0-0 match for two hours of human time in the Portuguese capital.
Soccer traders in the UEFA Champions League section at Polymarket are behind David Raya, Viktor Gyökeres, Bukayo Saka, and hosts Arsenal (67%) over Luis Suárez, Francisco Trincão and host Sporting CP (14%) with a Draw at 21% and the Total (goals) at 2.5 (Over 54¢, Under 49¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Gabriel Martinelli and Arsenal have been in better form than any other club in this tourney and at home and in such an important spot, it’s hard to see the Gunners suddenly being embarrassed, but Sporting CP is a side nobody would really want to see right about now.
Upstart Leões have lost just three games in 2026 (Bodø/Glimt Leg 1, Arsenal Leg 1, Estrela), going 12-3-3 in their last 18 matches. Against Arsenal in the last 7, SCP is still a winless 0-4-2 (4 GF-10 GA), scoring just 0, 0, 2, 1, 1, and 0 goals in UEFA EL and CL competitions (2018-2026).Trading Picks: Arsenal, Yes 67¢, Under 3.5 71¢
Bayern Munich Hosts RM in UEFA CL Leg 2 Wednesday
On Wednesday, Bayern Munich (7-0-1, 22 GF-8 GA) welcomes Kylian Mbappé and LALIGA giants Real Madrid (5-0-3, 21 GF-12 GA) to Allianz Arena (Hybrid Grass) in Munich, Germany for the decisive Leg 2 of their high-profile Quarterfinals UCL series (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
In Leg 1 last Tuesday night at Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid in this European Clásico, Spain, Bundesliga's Bayern Munich defeated host Real Madrid, 2-1 in a match that saw Luis Díaz (41’) and Harry Kane (46’) tally for the visitors before the prolific Mbappé got one back for RM (74’).
UEFA Champions League traders at Polymarket are backing Harry Kane and Bayern Munich (63%) over Thibaut Courtois and Real Madrid (21%) with a Draw at 18% and the Total (goals) at 3.5 (Over 54¢, No 48¢). Welcome to the Boomtown. Pick a habit, we got plenty to go around.
➤Trading Thoughts: Traders backed Bayern on Spanish soil in Leg 1 and with Kane (10 goals), Luis Díaz (4 goals), Michael Olise (5 assists), Serge Gnabry (4 assists), and Lennart Karl, it will be hard for any club on the European continent to beat this team in a major groove, but RM is no slouch.
And traders agree with the German giants the favorites to win the UEFA CL at 31%. The 40-year-old living legend Manuel Neuer was brilliant in Leg 1 against Los Blancos, and with a 1-goal aggregate lead, the first goal here will seem massive. Trading Pick: Bayern Munich, Yes 63¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the start of the 2026 NHL Playoffs and updated NHL winner numbers, Kalshi with a big appeals win in New Jersey, prediction markets Implementing Proactive Bans on athletes, coaches, and politicians, 2026 College Baseball DI winner odds, the Worst Record in MLB market, a Spanish Copa del Rey Final preview, and EPL previews for the Chelsea-Manchester United and massive Arsenal-Manchester City matches. Thank you for reading and subscribing.