Politicians Fined, Suspended For Trading on Own Races
On Wednesday night, news broke that prediction market giant Kalshi had fined and suspended three politicians in the US government for trading on their own races. The three are Ezekiel Enriquez [R] of Texas, Matt Klein [D] of Minnesota, and Mark Moran [D] of Virginia.
The three suspensions are set to last for 5 years and the fines ranged from $539 to over $6,200. Besides eroding their integrity as politicians, the three men also showed constituents their true colors in the integrity department. Kalshi deserves big credit for these quick and decisive actions.
In a statement, the prediction market said, “Just like in traditional financial markets, bad actors will try to cheat,” Kalshi said in a statement. “These three cases are an example of how developing proactive engineering solutions can help identify illicit trading activity.”
Enriquez ran in the primary in Texas’ 21st Congressional District, Klein is running in the primary in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, while Moran is running in the primary for the US Senate seat in Virginia.
"Absolutely, I did do this $100 [bet.]” Moran told NBC News in an interview. “I have no intention of doing this further. “This is simply to call attention to the fact that an entire election can be bought. Any candidate with enough money can sway prediction markets,” he said.
"I set up an account and bet $50 of my own funds that I would win the primary," Klein said in a statement on X. "I was informed in March of 2026 that this was a violation of the platform rules. In compliance with their request, I paid a penalty and agreed to be suspended from the platform.”
“That was the only wager I have ever made on a predictions market. This was a mistake, and I apologize."
This reveals many things. First, Kalshi can and will police politicians trying to dabble in politics or their own elections. Second, this show Klein was simply “betting” on himself, and at a small level. Pete Rose got caught betting on Baseball, but at least he was betting on his own team.
As much as both were forms of self-sabotage, both Klein and Rose expected to win and were betting on themselves, not trying to intentionally lose or tilt any playing field by cheating. Third, it reveals Klein is a novice as he called prediction markets ‘prediction markets.’
Fourth, and easily the most important thing to take form all this, is maybe Kalshi and Polymarket will eventually go after bigger fish involved in more serious incidents of potential insider trading within the government? Like Iran now and oil prices and suspicious trades from new accounts?
Eric Swalwell Exit Opens up Gubernatorial Race in State
With Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell resigning from Congress last week after allegations of sexual misconduct against him, the person who was the leading candidate to win the 2026 California Governor race quickly vanished like the warm smell of colitas into the thin Southern California air.
The next general election and 2026 California Gubernatorial Election will be held later this year in the Fall on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 with the mid-term elections with the top-two primary non-partisan election in California scheduled unjust six weeks for Tuesday, June 2, 2026.
Because current California Governor Gavin Newsom can’t run for a third term due to term limits, a new person will occupy the Governor's Mansion in Sacramento. Thoughts are the 58-year-old Newson will enter the 2028 Presidential race and traders have him as the top [D] candidate.
With the allegations and a House ethics investigation, Swallwell decided enough is enough and the US representative from the state's 14th congressional district since 2023 left like so many leave, contending the allegations are false. Where there’s smoke there’s fire and there’s plenty of smoke.
Now leading in the ‘Who Will Win the 2026 Gubernatorial Election in California?’ at Kalshi is billionaire and environmentalist Tom Steyer (39%) followed by former HHS head Xavier Becerra (31%, up from 5%), San José mayor Matt Mahan (11%), and Democratic House of Rep member Katie Porter (7.5%.
Republican Steve Hilton (7.3%), Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (5.7%), former US Vice President Kamala Harris (0.5%), and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (0.2%) rounded out the trading at Kalshi on April 22.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Democrats have won the California gubernatorial race two straight times with Jerry Brown (2011-2019) holding the office before Newsom (2020-2026) with strongman Arnold Schwarzenegger the last Republican governor in the state (2003-2010). Trading Pick: Tom Steyer, Yes, 39¢
FanDuel Predicts Looks to Carve a Niche in the PM Space
Launched last year by FanDuel (NYSE: FLUT) with the derivatives marketplace CME Group, FanDuel Predicts is now available in 16 states in the US and serves up a more limited and politically correct menu of trading markets more associated with the FanDuel brand.
“It’s not the full panoply of everything you can do on the FanDuel sportsbook,” FanDuel President Christian Genetski told the CNN Terms of Service podcast. “But it provides you a way to experience a FanDuel-type sports experience.”
“We would never offer anything to do with death, regime change, war,” Genetski said. “That’s not a FanDuel business that we would ever engage in,” Genetski said. “We are definitely sports-focused at FanDuel,” Genetski said. “We are a sports brand and a sports company.”
FanDuel’s biggest competitor, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), also has its own prediction market it launched last year, DraftKings Predictions, and like FanDuel Predicts has a smaller and more conventional menu of trading markets for users. The app is legal and available now in 38 states.
With industry heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket generating so much volume and revenue from prediction markets in Sports, FanDuel is hoping to find a nice little safe space for both its existing customers as well as newbies to the prediction market universe.
Will Americans Receive Tariff Stimulus Checks?
It’s easy to be cynical these days and we always hear big promises from politicians and sports owners about what they are going to do for the Common Man or the fans of their teams. Talk is cheap in Washington, DC, on the playing field, and on TV commercials where all is miraculous.
This Xylotroxini will cure your fingernail fungus, but beware of side effects like indoor shark attacks, itchy palms, growth of green elbow hairs, and death. Death? I’ve heard of this. I will gamble on possible fingernail fungus and avoid learning to pronounce your name and that ‘death’ thing. Thank you.
Anyway, the US President Donald Trump said US citizens will get Tariff Stimulus Checks several times and who is not to believe him? The vast majority of the traders in the $3,558,812 (April 19) ‘Will Americans Receive Stimulus Checks?’ market at Kalshi doesn't believe it. Call them cynical?
Before 2027 saw the highest level of confidence (14%)—’No’ was at 96.9c in this strike—with Before May (0.4%), Before June (1.1%), Before July (3%), and Before August (6.5%) all showing equal amounts of pessimism we’ll get anything but another chuckle at the Carnival Barker’s idea.
The Before 2026,Before February and Before March strikes were all already resolved as ‘No’s’.
Will Anyone Beat Aubry Bracco on Survivor Season 50?
The hit reality TV show Survivor (Wednesdays, CBS, 8 EST/7 CST/8 PST) continues on with its 50th “In the Hands of the Fans” season with the 24 castaways battling for the over $1,000,000 prize money in the Mamanuca Islands in Fiji slowly dwindling down after the merge of the three tribes.
Aubry Bracco (79%) still has a healthy lead from traders in the ‘Who Will Win Survivor Season 50 Winner? market ($16,576,982 volume on April 22) at Kalshi with fan favorite Cirie Fields (11%), Rizo Velovic (5%) , Joe Hunter (5%), Jonathan Young (3%), and Ozzy Lusth (2%) following.
➤Trading Thoughts: We have seen 49 seasons on the CBS hit and 47 different winners with Sandra Diaz-Twine (S7, S20) and Tony Vlachos (S28, S40) both winning the show twice. Season 32 (Survivor: Kaôh Rōng) runner-up Bracco and four-time player Fields (4th, 3rd, 6th place) can win for the first time.
The fact Bracco opened up in this market as such a strong favorite seems to hint someone somewhere knows who made it to the final Tribal Council in this taped show. And although the live vote is a month away, traders think the more social player Fields wouldn’t have a leg to stand on in a tribe vote.
The live 3-hour Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans finale will air on Wednesday, May 20 (CBS, Paramount+, 8 ET/7 CT/8 PT) from Los Angeles with Jeff Probst unveiling the winner and awarding the $1m prize. The night will also see the first live Survivor reunion in 7 years. Got sand?
The jury members won’t be voting for Rizo, Joe, or Jonathan, so it seems a woman will be the winner this season, and even with an extra vote still in her pocket, it’s too hard to recommend backing the 55-year-old Cirie. ➤Trading Pick: Aubry Bracco, Yes 79¢, Cirie Fields, No 90¢
National League Comeback Player of the Year Market
Last week, we looked at the AL Comeback Player of the Year Winner? market in Tuesday’s edition of The Prediction Report and last and threw our support to the Astros Yordan Alvarez (.317/6/16), this edition, we will analyze the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year Winner? markets.
At both prediction market trading platforms Kalshi and Robinhood, Sandy Alcantara (31%) was the top buy among MLB Future traders followed by Zack Wheeler (23%) with both Senior Circuit players seeing the same (chance) percentages showing how streamlined the industry has become.
Following the 30-year-old Marlins RHP Alcantara (2-1, 2.67 ERA) and the 35-year-old Phillies RHP Wheeler (IL) at Robinhood on April 15 were Braves OF and proud new father Micheal Harris II (19%), Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (17%), and Rockies SS Eziquiel Tovar (11%).
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a great market for many reasons. First, it will entertain you from May to October if you have a contender(s). Second, anyone can win from this group and five and I would even suggest looking outside of relative Sports newbies Robinhood who only offer 5 players.
Would you eat at a pizza place with just 5 pizzas, Bubba? Wooops. I guess this is a bad question to ask the average Earthling who would probably eat at a pizza place with 0 options. Don’t think too much. Please, you will slow down the line, Bubba. Keep moving. Chop-chop or it’s no soup for you!
Anyway bubblegum breath, at Kalshithere were more players on the menu (only $4,000 volume), including Pirates O’Neil Cruz (.328/5/16) who got off to a hot start for the Bucs. At Polymarket, there were 10 players on the menu with $16,000 in volume, so shop around if you can. ➤Trading Pick: O’Neil Cruz, Yes 11¢ (Kalshi)
Pirates at Brewers on Friday Night on a ‘Skenes Day’
The Pirates will play the defending division champion Brewers on Friday in Game 1 of a 3-game NL Central series at American Family Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Friday night (ESPN Unlimited, Brewers.tv, MLB.TV, 7:40 EDT/6:40 CDT/4:40 PDT). I like turtles.
The scheduled Starting Pitchers (SP) from a distance for this game were NL Cy Young Award winner and RHP Paul Skenes (3-1, 4.00, 0.94 ERA, WHIP) for Pittsburgh and 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year candidate and RHP Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 4.32 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
At Kalshi, expect the ‘Yes’ contracts by traders on ace Skenes and the Pirates to outnumber those on fellow ace Woodruff and the Phils by a 3-to-1 margin. In the World Series Winner market at Novig, Pittsburgh was priced at +3348 to become MLB champs with The Brew Crew at +2290.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the ESPN 2025 MLB H2H grid, we see that Christian Yelich (.314/5/14) and Milwaukee dominated Pittsburgh last season, going 10-3 as Milwaukee benefited from that +7 difference to capture the NL Central (by 5 games over the 2nd-place Cubs).
In 4 lifetime appearances, LSU product Skenes is 1-2 vs Milwaukee (3.86 ERA), so the recent series history, I-94 and Brewers Boulevard site, and price lean to taking 2B Brice Turang (.321/3/10 RB), C William Contreras (.291/2/10) and the Home dogs.➤Trading Game Pick: Brewers
Real Madrid Hosting Real Betis in LALIGA on Saturday
The Spanish LALIGA season continues to wind down and Kylian Mbappé and 2nd-place Real Madrid (22-4-5) travel to Estadio La Cartuja (Grass) in Sevilla, Spain to face 5th-place Real Betis (11-13-7) on Saturday evening (ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
Polymarket traders are backing Vini and visitors Real Madrid (53%) over hosts Real Betis Balompié (26%) with a Draw trading at 23%. The Total (goals) was trading at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 64¢, No 37¢) for this fixture at The Charterhouse.
➤Trading Thoughts: After being eliminated in the UCL Quarterfinals by Bayern Munich and ousted from the Spanish Cup, Real Madrid can now only waste its energy trying to win LALIGA, chasing rivals Barcelona in the Spanish LALIGA table. As always. Some things never change.
But they won’t catch them and that means talk will soon be of who stays and who goes for next season as this perennial European power will not like the taste of all of the 2025-26 leagues and tourneys left in their mouths. RM GK Thibaut Courtois (Quads) was expected to return April 24.
In the last 5 H2H meetings (all LALIGA), Real Madrid is 2-2-1 vs Betis (9 GF-4 GA) with Los Blancos just 0-1-1 in the last two in Sevilla. With Madrid locked into a UEFA CL spot next season and Betis locked in a UEFA EL spot, neither side may have much ambition. ➤Trading Pick: None
A Very Important EPL Matchday For Some Saturday...
The 2025-26 English Premier League season keeps ticking away the moments that make up a dull day, and for some clubs on Saturday, what happens may go a very long way to how they remember the season and for some, where they will be playing Soccer for the 2026-27 season.
Tottenham Hotspur (7-9-16) sits in 18th-place in the EPL table, and will meet 20th-place Wolverhampton Wanderers (3-8-21) at Molineux Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in Wolverhampton in a game where the 3 points will seem like 30 if Spurs can pull off the win.
Polymarket traders are backing desperate visitors Tottenham Hotspur (57%) over hosts Wolverhampton Wanderers (22%) with the Draw at 23%. The Total (goals) was trading at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 57¢, No 46¢) for this fixture with the Both Teams To Score Prop (‘Yes’) priced at 57¢.
And also on Saturday, Viktor Gyökeres (12 goals), Gabriel Martinelli (1 goal), and first-place Arsenal (21-7-4) will meet 14th-place Newcastle United (12-6-14) at the Emirates Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in London, England (USA Network, Universo,12:30 EDT/11:30 CDT/9:30 PDT).
Soccer traders at Polymarket are backing Arsenal big (66%) over Newcastle United (15%) with the Draw at 20%. The Total (goals) was trading at 2.5 (Over, Yes, 60¢, No 41¢) for this important fixture for the Gunners with the Both Teams To Score Prop (‘Yes’) priced at 55¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: Both North London clubs, Arsenal and Tottenham, need the win and all 3 points for different existential reasons. And both should win, making a Combo or (parlay) the suggestion. The Toon will have trouble scoring.➤Trading Picks: Tottenham and Arsenal Combo
FA Cup Semifinals 1: MCFC vs Sunderland on Saturday
One Semifinal of the 2026 English FA Cup will see Manchester City meeting Southampton at Wembley Stadium (GrassMaster) in London, England on Saturday (12:15 EDT/9:15 PDT). The winner will face the winner of the Chelsea-Leeds United Semi on May 16 in the FA Cup Final.
Polymarket traders are backing Erling Haaland and Manchester City (67%) to be FA Cup Winner over Pedro Neto (3 goals) and Chelsea (24%), Leeds United (1%), and over Sunderland (3%).
Traders at Kalshi are buying Manchester City (82%) over Sunderland (8%) with the Draw trading at 13% with the Over 3.5 Goals (‘Yes’) at 47¢ (No, 55¢) with just $1,834 trading volume April 22.
➤Trading Thoughts: Manchester City is 3-1-1 (9 GF-3) in the last 5 series meetings and looking at a larger sample size, we see that the Citizens are a dominating 23-8-7 vs the Saints. With a Carabao Cup trophy already in the cabinet and hope springing eternal in the EPL, City has life. ➤Trading Pick: Manchester City -1.5 Goals, Yes 62¢
FA Cup Semifinals 2: CFC vs Leeds United on Sunday
The second 2026 English FA Cup Semifinal will see Reece James and Chelsea lining up against Leeds United at Wembley Stadium (GrassMaster) in London, England on Sunday (12:15 EDT/11:15 CDT/9:15 PDT). The winner will play the MCFC-Sunderland winner on May 16 in the FA Cup Final.
Traders at Kalshi are behind Chelsea (48%) over Leeds United (32%) with the Draw trading at 32% but this market was new and hardly liquid ($319 volume). You have more money in your bank account than this market had at human writing. The Over 2.5 Goals (‘Yes’) was at 52¢ (No, 51¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 5 H2H meetings between these two foes, we see that Leeds United went a surprising 2-1-2 with the Whites outscoring the Blues 10-7. Schizophrenic Chelsea is mad now they won’t get a UCL berth next season. ➤Trading Pick: Chelsea, Yes 48¢
NASCAR: Jack Link’s 500 Races on Sunday From Talladega
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season continues racing this weekend with its 10th race and the running of the 2026 Jack Link’s 500 from Talladega Superspeedway (Asphalt) in Lincoln, Alabama on Sunday (TV—FOX, HBO Max, RADIO—MRN, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
The 188-lap race will be contested over the 2.66 mile (4.28 km) superspeedway. Austin Cindric (Team Penske) won here last year in a race which saw Ty Gibbs lead the most number of laps (32) with Zane Smith winning the Pole. It doesn’t matter where you start, it matters where you finish.
Polymarket NASCAR traders like Ryan Blaney (10%), Joey Logano (8%), Bubba Wallace (7%), Chase Elliott (7%), Tyler Reddick (7%), Austin Cindric (6%), Kyle Larson (5%), William Byron (5%), Christopher Bell (5%), Brad Keselowski (5%), and Chris Bueschler (5%), Denny Hamlin (5%), Chase Briscoe (5%) and Ty Gibbs (4%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The NASCAR season saw Michael Jordan (23XI) driver Ryan Blaney blast off with four pretty surprising wins, and now it’s a scramble to see who can win, where and if any driver or team can get its first checkered flag of the season. We do very fast left turns for a living.
Because Gibbs got his first win this season and is feeling good and did so well on this track in this race last year, buying some Gibbs ‘Yes’ seems logical. Reddick is just confident, period, and Toyota Twins Hamlin and Bell are hot. ➤Race Winner Trading Picks: Tyler Reddick 7¢, Denny Hamlin 5¢, Christopher Bell 5¢, Ty Gibbs 4¢
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➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the 2026 UEFA Champions League Semifinals with previews and picks for both Leg 1 matches, 2026 UEFA Europa League Semifinals previews, Will LIV Golf Announce a Shutdown?, Will Americans Receive Stimulus Checks?, Who Will Be on the Cover of Madden NFL 27?, the 2025-26 Professional Squash Association World Championships , CONCACAF Champions Cup Semifinals previews, and Wednesday and Friday MLB previews . Thank you for subscribing and reading.