2026 NFL Draft Starts Thursday Night in Pittsburgh
The three-day (April 23-25) 2026 NFL Draft will begin on Thursday night at Point State Park and Acrisure Stadium on Pittsburgh’s North Shore and will see 257 total selections made over 7 rounds by the 32 teams currently banging helmets in the National Football League (NFL).
It will mark the first time the NFL Draft has been held in The Steel City since 1948, the year that Terry Bradshaw was born and back when Gold was $35 an ounce, the US population was just 135 million, and the Steelers had 0 professional football championships.
Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft will take place this week on Thursday, April 23 (ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes, NFL Network, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT) with Rounds 2-3 on Friday April 24 (ESPN, 8 EDT/5 PDT) with Rounds 4-7 taking place on Saturday, April 24 (ESPN, 12 EDT/11 CDT/9 PDT).
Last year in the 2025 NFL Draft held in Green Bay, the Tennessee Titans selected Miami Florida QB Cam Ward with the #1 pick with the Jacksonville Jaguars selecting WR/DB Travis Hunter of Colorado next with the #2 pick followed by the Giants taking LB Abdul Carter of Penn State at #3.
Numerous Trading Markets Open For 2026 NFL Draft
There are a number of markets at the various exchanges involved with the 2026 NFL Draft, including at Kalshi where you can find offerings like the ‘Pro Football #1 Overall Pick’ the #2, #3, #4, #5, and #10 selections. You can find the full 2026 NFL Draft menu from Kalshi at this link.
The Las Vegas Raiders own the #1 pick in the draft and will take Indiana QB and 2025 Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza on Thursday to finally give the Black & Silver a franchise QB to build the offense around after taking Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty with the #5-pick last year.
The NY Jets have the #2 pick and are expected to draft Ohio State Arvell Reese with the Arizona Cardinals projected to take Miami Florida OL Francis Mauigoa next at #3 with Notre Dame star RB Jeremiyah Love expected to go at #4 to the Tennessee Titans to join Ward in the backfield.
In the ‘Who Will be the #2 Pick in the NFL Draft?’ market at Kalshi on April 20, Arvell Reese was the top choice by traders (61%) at Kalshi with Texas Tech Edge/LB David Bailey (41%). Of course, there will be trades and much that happens before and behind the scenes with this huge event.
Hungarian Election Results Show PMs Effectiveness
The Central European country Hungary held parliamentary elections earlier this month, and the prediction markets again had the winner and the results spot on from a distance as challenger Péter Magyar overwhelmingly defeated current PM Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party.
The 62-year-old Orbán and his Fidesz-KDNP had a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian parliament before the election, but challenger Magyar and the new Tisza party gave democracy some hope in Hungary as predicted by popular and liquid PMs markets Polymarket and Kalshi.
Back on December 18, 2025, the 44-year-old Magyar was slightly ahead of the incumbent Orbán (54%-50%), while at Polymarket, the spread was higher (+9%) among traders with Magyar having some distance between himself and Orbán (55%-46%). The lead only grew and he won quite easily.
The final tally showed Magyar with 3,079,646 votes (54.41%) to Orbán’s 2,138,002 (37.77%) with the brand new Tisza winning 136 seats in Hungary, the Fidesz-KDNP winning 57, and the László Toroczka and the Mi Hazánk getting 6 seats (5.88%) in the election which had a 79.55% turnout.
Eurovision 2026 Headed to Semifinals on May 12
The 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, organized by the EBU and presented by Victoria Swarovski and Michael Ostrowski, will see two Semifinals on May 12 and May 14 with the Grand Final on Saturday, May 16 at Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria (Peacock, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
When I asked five friends from four different countries in Europe if they were watching the 70th edition of Eurovision, all five said no, so despite its popularity, it’s still a niche entertainment choice and trading market like other events like the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest and Miss America.
Three European nations were in double-digit ‘Yes’ chance territory in Finland (37%), France (11%) and Denmark (11%) with traders also backing Australia (7%), Greece (6%), Israel (6%), Sweden (3%), and Italy (3%).
Balkan neighbors Romania and Ukraine were both at 2% with Czechia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Malta, Moldova, and Luxembourg all at 1% in a market which had more than $87 million in trading volume as of April 14.
➤Trading Thoughts: The two solid favorites in Eurovision 2026 are Finland and France with "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen essentially going head-to-head with “Regarde” by Monroe in the prediction markets as this popular music competition nears its last month.
The Qualification for the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final will see defending Eurovision champs Austria, the Big-4 (UK, France, Germany, and Italy), and the 10 best performers from each of the two Semi-finals:
No nation has won back-to-back Eurovisions since Ireland won three straight (1992-1994) at this renowned competition, so back Austria at your own peril. Listening to the Finnish and French entries, I prefer the Monroe “Regarde,” but traders strongly differ with Finland holding a big lead. 🀄Trading Pick: France, Yes 11.5¢
⌚Where to Watch the Eurovision in the USA: You can watch both the Semifinals (May 12, May 14) and the Grand Final (Saturday, May 16; 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT) of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 streaming live or on-demand at Peacock and the Eurovision YouTube channel.
Markets See Another Busy Earnings Reporting Week
More major companies will be reporting their earnings this week and prediction markets traders interested in this niche can to trade on whether or not these companies will beat street estimates.
Tesco (TSCO) reported 2026 Q1 earnings before the market opened on Tuesday while Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), and Moody’s (MCO) will all report 2026 Q1 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday with IBM (IBM) and Tesla (TSLA) reporting after the market closes for the day.
On Thursday, Honda (HON), PG&E (PCG), CBRE Group (CBRE), and Union Pacific (UNP) will all be reporting 2026 Q1 earnings before the market opens on Thursday while on Friday Procter & Gamble (PG) will report before the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Traders at Polymarket are betting ‘No’ that Tesla (TSLA) beats the street's estimate for its Q1 2026 earnings (62%). You can access the Tesla conference call on the Q1 2026 earnings at the company’s investor relations website. The live webcast will start around 5:30 pm EDT (2:30 PDT).
Which NHL Teams Will Play in the 2026 Stanley Cup?
Last NHL season we saw the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference and the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference to both make the Stanley Cup Final for a second straight year but we won’t see a third rematch this Spring with the Panthers not even making the NHL Playoffs.
At Kalshi, traders can speculate on ‘Which Teams will Play in the 2026 Stanley Cup Final?’ with the Avalanche paired up with potential East winners getting the most action with Buffalo and Colorado (50%), Carolina and Colorado (21%) and TB and Colorado (18%) the top matchups.
Following in trading order were Boston and Dallas (14%)and Carolina and Edmonton (13%), so teams traders expect to survive the first 12 games (if they play 12) are getting most of the money.
➤Trading Thoughts: Nathan MacKinnon and Colorado (302 GF-203 GA, +99 GD) have been consistent all season, unlike many seasons when it has taken the Avs until December to wake up. Edmonton, VGK, Dallas, and Minnesota should make their path to the Stanley Cup difficult.
In the East, it’s anyone’s guess but that’s what we do in prediction markets—make educated guesses from all we have seen and all we know unless you are a mindless bot profiting from some mindless code or simply just buying ‘No’ on absolutely everything everywhere all of the time. Whatever works, right?
Buffalo’s been a nice surprise in the East while Carolina and TB have had respectable seasons but we all know all hell breaks loose in the NHL Playoffs and even the defunct Atlanta Thrashers could emerge in the Year of the Strange that is 2026.
Showing prediction markets are still in their infancy, Robinhood only has five choices. What if you think that the Penguins or VGK will make the Finals? Round 1 started on Saturday and we talked about it here in the last edition of The Prediction Report. Trading Pick: Montréal and Colorado 9¢
American League Comeback Player of the Year Market
Baseball is beautiful for many reasons, it starts in Spring with the blooming of flowers and ends in the Autumn with falling of leaves and fills a profoundly sad void in the sporting landscape after its brothers Football, Hockey, Soccer, and Basketball have all gone to bed for the endless Summer.
With the start of the new MLB season, we also see many players trying to renew their careers, be it from age, slumps, or injuries. The ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ award was created to reward those in the Junior and Senior circuits and Kalshi has markets for both for traders to dabble.
In the AL Comeback Player of the Year market at Kalshi, Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez (39%) was the leader of Angels veteran OF and future Hall of Famer Mike Trout (36%) before Trout smashed 2 HR in an 11-10 loss to the Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Monday, April 13.
➤Trading Thoughts: Traders at Robinhood also like the 28-year-old Cuban Alvarez (.321/6/14) over the 34-year-old Trout (.224/4/12) but both teams were off to poor starts in the AL West with Houston in last place at 6-11 and the Halos at 8-9 heading into play on April 14.
Yanks RHP Gerrit Cole (16¢), Orioles C Adley Rutschman (7¢), and Red Sox 2B Kristian Campbell (7¢) were also seeing some action but this could be a two-player race and it’s hard to see Trout having statistical success and staying injury-free all season. Trading Pick: Yordan Alvarez, Yes 39¢
2026 Coppa Italia Semifinals on Tuesday, Wednesday
The Semifinals of the 2026 Coppa Italia come this week with the four Serie A teams alive and all tied on aggregate heading into the Leg 2 matches of Italian national football cup won last year by Bologna over Inter Milan, 1-0, their third Coppa Italia win and first since 1974.
On Tuesday, Ange-Yoan Bonny (2 goals), Andy Diouf (2 goals) and Inter Milan (56¢, Polymarket) will meet Anastasios Douvikas (3 goals) and Como 1907 (20¢, Draw 26¢) in the first Coppa Italia Semifinal from Sam Siro (GrassMaster) in Milano, Italy (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
And on Wednesday, SS Lazio (21¢, Polymarket) will meet Atalanta (55¢, Draw 27¢) in the second Coppa Italia Semifinal from New Balance Arena (FLexGrass Vertix Hybrid Grass) in Bergamo, Italy (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
In the two 2026 Coppa Italia Leg 1s, Lazio and Atlanta two tied 2-2 at Lazio trading 2nd Half goals while Inter and Como drew 0-0 in a game so boring the frustrated scoreboard weeped and demanded free pizza and cannoli for the puzzled patrons.
➤Trading Thoughts: Marcus Thuram (2 goals) and Inter Milan (24-3-5 Serie A, 1st place) will benefit from this match at San Siro where I Nerazzurri (The Black and Blues) thrive. These two just met in Serie A where visitors Inter resurrected Jesús Rodríguez (2 goals) and Como (16-10-6 in Serie A, 5th place), 4-3.
Atalanta was brilliant in the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals, shutting out Genoa (4-0) and Juventus (3-0) while SS Lazio blanked AC Milan (1-0) and sliced Bologna (4-1). Atalanta is 1-1-0 vs Lazio in Serie A. The 2026 Coppa Italia Final will be on May 13. Trading Picks: Inter 56¢, Atalanta 55¢
Red Sox, Yankees Renew Rivalry at Fenway on Tuesday
Aaron Judge, Giancaro Stanton, and the defending AL champion Yankees (13-9, 5-4 Road) lock horns with their hatedAL East rivals, the Red Sox (9-13, 4-5 Home) at historic Fenway Park (Grass) in Boston on Tuesday night (TBA, MLB Network, 6:45 EDT/5:45 CDT/3:45 PDT).
The Bronx Bombers had a nice start this 2025 MLB Regular Season before slipping some and MLB traders at Kalshi give the LNew York Yankees a decent 9.8% chance to win the2026 World Series with rookie Roman Anthony and the Boston Red Sox trading at 2.5% on April 19.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Red Sox went 9-4 vs the Yankees in the 2025 MLB Regular Season and the Carmines are looking for a better season, but Boston has the worst start of any team in MLB (4-9), but still find themselves close in the schizo AL East with plenty of time to get things right.
NY started with the best mark in the AL (8-2) before losing 5 straight—4 by 1 run and the other by 2 runs. A team with so many sluggers shouldn’t be ranking #15 in Runs (65), #21 in OBP (.205), #26 in Slugging (.345), and #28 in BA (.202). Babe Ruth cringes. Game Trading Pick: Boston Red Sox
Atlético at Elche in Spanish LALIGA on Wednesday
The perennial third wheel in the Spanish LALIGA, Alexander Sørloth (10 goals), Julián Alvarez (8 goals) and Atlético Madrid (17-6-8), travel to Estadio Martínez Valero (Grass) in Elche, Spain to face 5th-place Elche (7-11-13) on Wednesday evening (ESPN+, 1 EDT/12 CDT/11 MDT/10 PDT).
Kalshi traders are backing Antoine Griezmann (6 goals), Julián Álvarez (8 goals), and visitors Atlético Madrid (40%) over hosts Elche (37%) on Wednesday with a Draw trading at 26%.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two met in Madrid earlier this season in LALIGA action, Rafa Mir (8 goals), Andre Silva (7 goals), Martim Neto (5 assist) and the Los Franjiverdes (The Green-striped Ones) tied with Rojiblancos (The Red-Striped ones) 1-1 at Elche with Sørloth and Mir scoring.
In the last 5 H2H meetings (all LALIGA), Atlético Madrid is 3-1-1 vs Elche (9 GF-2 GA) with Atleti registering 3 Clean Sheets—2 at Estadio Martínez Valero. In 17 lifetime meetings, Atlético is 14-2-1 (W-D-L), outscoring Elche 31-4. Embrace logic. Trading Pick: Atlético Madrid, Yes 40¢
DFB-Pokal Semifinals on Wednesday, Thursday
The Semifinals of the 2026 German Cup (DFB-Pokal) will take place this week with the four Bundesliga clubs still alive in the annual tournament looking for some silverware in an event better named the Fußball-Club Bayern München e. V. Invitational? Not so fast bratwurst breath.
Mighty Bayern may dominate in the German Bundesliga and the UEFA Champions League, but the DFB-Pokal has been a trophy that has eluded FCB with Bayern last winning it in 2019-2020. Still, Die Bayern has won this domestic competition 20 times and have been clear favorites throughout.
On Wednesday, Manuel Neuer, Harry Kane, and FC Bayern Munich (64¢, Polymarket) will meet Patrik Schick and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (19¢, Draw 20¢) in the first German Cup Semifinal from BayArena (Grass) in Leverkusen, Germany (ESPN+, 2:45 EDT/1:45 CDT/11:45 PDT).
Then on Thursday, Vfb Stuttgart (61¢, Polymarket) will host SC Freiburg (19¢, Draw 23¢) in the second DFB-Pokal Cup Semifinal from MHPArena (Grass) in Stuttgart, Germany (ESPN+, 2:45 EDT/1:45 CDT/11:45 PDT).
➤Trading Thoughts: When Bayern and Leverkusen met in Bundesliga play this season, Luis Díaz and FCB won 3-0 at Allianz before Die Werkself (The Factory XI) earned a point in a 1-1 Draw at Leverkusen in a match that saw Díaz score and leave with a RC with teammate Nicolas Jackson.
VfB Stuttgart (17-5-7 Bundesliga, 3rd place) is underrated. SC Freiburg won at Home (3-1) as did Stuttgart (1-0). Looking at the last 12 meetings in this series we see that the Home team is 9-3, winning the last 4 straight. 🌐Trading Picks: Bayern Munich, Yes 64¢, VfB Stuttgart, Yes Yes 61¢
Cubs Face Red-Hot Dodgers at Chavez Ravine on Friday
Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, and the defending World Series champion Dodgers (15-6, 6-3 Home) welcome Tucker’s old team, the Cubs (12-9, 5-4 Road) to Dodger Stadium (Santa Ana Bermuda Grass) for an NL showdown on Friday night (Apple TV, 10:10 EDT/9:10 CDT/8:10 MDT/7:10 PDT).
After a nice start this 2025 MLB Regular Season, Kalshi MLB traders give Freddie Freeman and the Los Angeles Dodgers a healthy 33.6% chance to win the 2026 World Series —the clear favorites in this market—with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Chicago Cubs trading at 2.8%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Dodgers surprisingly had losing records against 6 teams in the 2025 MLB Regular Season including the Cubs (3-4) but LA went 3-2 v Chicago at Chavez Ravine, and stealing one the Cubbies best bats (Tucker) should help make winning 100 games this year a thing.
Los Doyers were very dominant at Home last year, going 52-29 but teams from the NL Central gave LA real problems with the Dodgers having a 12-19 record vs those five (0-6 vs MIL). Still, with the top of the order hitting now, this team is incredibly explosive. Game Trading Pick: Dodgers
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➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report online Friday, we will look at the reset in the California Governor race., an update on Survivor Season 50, the World Squash Championships, the NL Comeback Player of the Year, a Real Madrid vs Real Betis LALIGA preview, Tottenham vs Wolves and Arsenal v Sunderland previews in the EPL, 2026 FA Cup Semifinal previews, a preview of the NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 and other new items. Thank you for reading and subscribing.