This is the weekend where we will see five of the most important football games of the NFL and College Football seasons with the four NFL Divisional Round games served up Saturday and Sunday and the CFP National Championship Game being played on Monday in Miami Gardens.
When the dust clears, there will suddenly be just four teams alive and playing football still—the final four that make the AFC Championship and NFC Championship next weekend and we will have a new champion in college.
Traders at Polymarket in the ‘College Football Champion 2026’ market are backing Indiana (74%) over Miami Florida (25%) in the NCAAF title tilt while in the ‘Super Bowl Champion 2026’ they are backing Seattle (24%), LA Rams (21%), Buffalo (14%), New England (13%), and Denver (11%).
➤Trading Thoughts: There are a number of streaking teams still alive of the 10 heading into this weekend, with Indiana a perfect 15-0, and the NFL’s Texans (10) and Seahawks (8) on nice long winning runs. Of those teams, IU (Mendoza) and Seattle (Darnold) have the best QBs.
This is still a good time to get involved in the NFL Champions market, as this is as wide open of a season we have witnessed in a long time and every left can lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy. With streaking Seattle rested and having the 12th man and Homefield edge, lean to a strong NFC side. Trading Pick: Seahawks to win Super Bowl 24.1¢
Polymarket Announces More New Partnerships
Last week Polymarket announced more partnerships, including an exclusive one with Dow Jones, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal, the renowned New York City-based publisher led by CEO Almar Latour and owned by News Corp.
Dow Jones will integrate Polymarket real-time PM data across various platforms created and run by the company including the aforementioned WSJ, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. Readers will now get market-implied probabilities from the extensive trading library at Polymarket and the data.
Polymarket also unveiled a partnership deal with the New York Rangers of the National Hockey League (NHL), weeks after Kalshi and the Chicago Blackhawks joined forces with the first-ever deal between a North American professional sports team and a prediction market platform.
The NHL has been the only major league so far to accept and to team up with prediction markets.
Polymarket, which also has deals with Twitter/X and Parcl, announced an exclusive deal with the Golden Globes as a partner providing data for awards outcomes and built into the fabric of future shows, the first partnership between a PM and an awards show according to Deadline.
The Golden Globes—which aired last Sunday from Los Angeles—are owned by Penske Media Eldridge (Penske Media Corporation), and CEO Craig Perreault said this partnership between Polymarket and the Golden Globes will unlock a “groundbreaking new frontier.”
Fee Revenue Becoming Kalshi’s Bread and Butter?
Most of the shine on prediction markets comes from their novelty, the specific markets themselves, and the news we have seen about them since vaulting into the mainstream during the 2024 US Presidential Election.
But like grocery stores, Kalshi (and others) aim to make money from a large volume of transactions. At Kalshi there are trading fees on the expected earnings of contracts (as well as Maker Fees on occasions). And in the last couple of months, that fee revenue has been massive.
The late 2025 surge ended with Kalshi making some $263.5 million in fee revenue, most of it coming from sports contracts trading—89% of Kalshi’s business—and we can probably expect that number to at least double in 2026 with the acceptance and integration of these PM platforms.
You can find the complete Kalshi Fee Schedule in this link. Although you can earn interest of 3.75-4% on your money at Kalshi with their Annual Percentage Yield (APY) program (on balances over $250), like sports gambling and stocks, the more you trade, the more small fees you will pay.
Kalshi hit yet another new trading volume record of $455 million on Saturday, January 10, with the sports schedule in a perfect Winter storm with two NFL Playoff games, a full slate of NBA and NCAAM, NHL, Soccer, and other more minor sports all in action. Sports was 95% of the volume.
Is Robinhood Poising Itself to be a Major PM Player?
Robinhood doesn’t get the media attention in the prediction market sphere as much as Kalshi and Polymarket, but the future looks very bright for this versatile company poised to be a one-stop shop app for trading in stock markets, index options, crypto, and now, prediction markets.
Robinhood Markets is an American financial services company from Menlo Park, California run by CEO Vladimir Tenev now branching into prediction markets and making a name for itself among the Kalshis and Polymarkets in the burgeoning PM space.
Tenev has visions and a target of a “trillion contracts a month,” and with Robinhood charging a $0.01 (penny) commission for each contract traded, the everything finance app giant will look to grind out money thee same was as Kalshi and the grocery store, through volume, volume, volume.
Robinhood
Like Kalshi—who Robinhood has a partnership with—and Polymarket, the Robinhood library of markets is sports-heavy with Politics, Entertainment, Economics, Elections, Tech, Crypto, and Climate (Rain in Chicago in January 2026) all trading categories for this relatively new PM player.
With Robinhood reporting a big drop in volume in stock and crypto trading in November, its own stock (HOOD) struggled toward the end of 2025, but it was still a good year for the company, with shares going from a 52-week low of $29.66 (March 7) to a 52-week high of $153.86 (October 6).
What Will Netflix Say During Their Next Earnings Call?
Netflix has an earnings call for Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results scheduled for January 20, 2026, and Kalshi has a Mentions market, ‘What Will Netflix Say During Their Next Earnings Call?’ for that coming event.
Here are the words or phrases currently listed.
➤Trading Thoughts: The results from Netflix will be revealed after market close via webcast around 4:45 EST/1:45 PST on Tuesday, January 20. Financial results will come out on their investor relations site before the webcast, so if trading in this Mentions market, give it a read for context. Trading Picks: Acquisition Yes 85¢, Competition, Yes 85¢
What will Netflix say during their next earnings call?
Dodgers Favorites in MLB Champs Market at Robinhood
Robinhood doesn’t have the extensive menu like Kalshi and Polymarket in the burgeoning PM space, but you can trade on a variety of basic sports, including who will be the 2026 Major League Baseball (MLB) champions, or ‘Pro Baseball Champion’ for Robinhood users with the platform, like others, not having licensing rights to officially call it the ‘World Series.’
Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers (29¢) are the clearcut choice among traders followed by the New York Yankees (10¢), Seattle Mariners (9¢), Philadelphia Phillies (9¢), Boston Red Sox (7¢), Chicago Cubs (7¢), Toronto Blue Jays (7¢), Atlanta Braves (6¢), New York Mets (6¢), Houston Astros (5¢), and Baltimore Orioles (5¢).
Pro baseball Champion
➤Trading Thoughts: Few teams in MLB history will have the starting pitching staff the Dodgers will have as they look to three-peat in 2026 with the Japanese-heavy Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Rōki Sasaki giving Los Doyers Manager Dave Roberts an embarrassment of riches in Chavez Ravine in Southern California.
Who can challenge LA? In the NL, maybe Bryce Harper and the Phillies. In the AL, possibly the Jays who LA could see again in the Fall Classic with Toronto adding Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto and P’s Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers. Trading Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers 29¢
Who Will Attend the Big Game in February?
The ’Who Will Attend the Big Game?’ market at Kalshi where traders can get down on whether or not a number of big names will be attending Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (NBC, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST). This isn’t a very liquid market ($69,361 volume).
Given the best chance by traders at Kalshi are Jason Kelce (66%), Elon Musk (60%, +35% in 3 days), President Donald Trump (41%), soccer legend Lionel Messi (36%), Vice President JD Vance (34%), Kristi Noem (23%), Taylor Swift (19%), Barack Obama (16%), Tom Homan (15%), and Jill Biden (6%).
Who will attend the Big Game
➤Trading Thoughts: Instead of looking for a celebrity or famous name on the ‘Yes’ side, the thought here is to isolate one or two strong ‘No’ trades. The first would be Taylor Swift, as with the Chiefs eliminated and her having no reason to attend, I don’t expect her in Miami Gardens.
And VP JD Vance seems to have more than enough on his political plate and doesn’t seem to care much about professional sports, and has enough things on his plate that attending the Super Bowl would seem more of an opportunity to be booed than to enjoy the game. Trading Picks: JD Vance, No 71¢, Taylor Swift, No 86¢
AFC Divisional Round Preview: Bills at Broncos, Saturday
The first of four weekend NFL Playoffs Divisional Round games sees the #6-seed Bills (13-5, 6-3 Road) at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Denver to face the #1-seed Broncos (14-3, 8-1 at Home) on Saturday afternoon (CBS, 4:30 EST/3:30 CST/1:30 PST).
While Denver slept comfortably in their own beds in the Rocky Mountains, Buffalo was fighting to get to this point in Jacksonville vs a game Jaguars side who won the AFC South. And Josh Allen and the Bills prevailed, 27-24 on Sunday on the first weekend in NFL history to see four postseason games decided by 4 points or less.
At Kalshi, Pro Football traders like QB Bo Nix and Denver (52%) over Buffalo (48%) with Denver wins by over 2.5 points at 47% two days from kickoff with the Over 47.5 points scored at 55%.
EMPOWER FIELD
➤Trading Thoughts: Lifetime, the Bills are 24-17-1 vs the Broncos, with Allen and the Bills going 5-7 in the last 12 but an impressive 6-2 in the last 8, including 2-1 in the last 3 at Denver where I heard from an unreliable source Elvis still lives underground at the Denver International Airport.
The extra rest should serve Denver well, but can this team generate offense when it has to? Allen is like the karate master here and Nix the grasshopper, so experience will be worth something and I don’t trust the Broncos, as good as they are at home. Trading Pick: Bills Game Winner, Yes 48¢
NFC Divisional Round Preview: 49ers at Seahawks, Saturday
The second NFC Divisional Round game on Saturday night will see the rested #1-seed and NFC West champion Seahawks (14-3, 6-2 Home) playing host to their rivals, the 49ers (13-5, 8-2 Road) at Lumen Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Seattle, Washington (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
Seattle earned a week off with the best record in the NFC while San Francisco eliminated the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Chill-adelphia on Sunday, finding a way to win and advance despite having a plethora of injured LBs and losing star TE George Kittle in the war.
Seattle (73%) is the traders solid choice over San Francisco (27%) at Kalshi with Seattle wins by over 7.5 points at 55% and Over 45.5 points scored trading at 48%. The loss of veteran Kittle has definitely affected trading sentiment for the big game in the Emerald City.
LUMEN FIELD
➤Trading Thoughts: These two NFC West rivals have played twice already this season with QB Brock Purdy and the Niners winning in Week 1 in Seattle (17-13) and QB Sam Darnold and the Seahawks winning in Week 18 in Frisco (13-3) in two extremely low-scoring games (23.0 PPG).
With Kittles out, RB Christian McCaffrey will have to be even more of a utensil on the Swiss Army knife for SF, especially against this stingy Seahawks defense which allows just 17.2 PPG (#1). But this pick comes down to four main things, none of them being that great Seattle defense.
The first is the valuable week of rest the hosts have. The second is that great Lumen crowd, the 12th man. The third is the reality of how injured SF is, at so many key positions. The fourth? The Seahawks offense which are #3 in the NFL in Scoring (28.4 PPG) behind superstar WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Trading Pick: Seahawks Game Winner, Yes 74¢
AFC Divisional Round Preview: Texans at Patriots, Sunday
The last of the NFL Divisional Round games will feature Drake Maye and the AFC #2-seed Patriots (15-3, 7-3 Home) welcoming the Texans (13-5, 5-3 Road) to Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Sunday (ESPN, ABC, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Head Coach Mike Vrabel led New England to a dream turnaround season and the Patriots eliminated QB Justin Herbert and the #7-seed Chargers in the Wild Card Round last Sunday in Beantown, 16-3 in a low-scoring slog at The Razor while Houston won its 10th in a row, eliminating the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, 30-6 on Monday Night Football.
The winner here moves on to the AFC Championship Game next weekend and will play the Bills-Broncos winner. At Kalshi, New England (60%) was getting the love over the streaking Texans (40%) with New England wins by over 3.5 points at 47% and Over 41.5 points scored at 46%.
Patriots
➤Trading Thoughts: The Patriots can be counted on to score and play defense, but it’s hard to assume the Texans can score easily, especially on the road in a hostile situation in what will be a very physical contest. Check the status of Houston WR Nico Collins if trading on this game.
NE is 11-4-0 lifetime vs the Texans, winning 7 straight at one point but going 1-3 the last 4. This one seems like a toss-up, despite the site and despite Maye and Vrabel. QB CJ Stroud and Houston can win this one if it is low-scoring. Trading Pick: New England Wins By Over 3.5 points, No 54¢
NFC Divisional Round Preview: Rams at Bears, Sunday
Don’t look now but QB Caleb Williams and the Bears (12-6, 7-2 Home) are still alive and will host the #5-seed Rams (12-5, 5-4 Road) at Soldier Field (Bermuda Grass) in Chicago in an NFC Divisional showdown on Sunday night (NBC, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST).
Chicagos come in as the NFC North champs and the #2 seed and rallied to beat rivals and #7-seed Green Bay in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs on Saturday in the Windy City, 31-27 in a game that went down to the final play and one where we suggested the Over on here at The Prediction Report.
The LA Rams held off the Panthers in Carolina earlier in the day, 34-31 as QB and NFL MVP candidate Matt Stafford threw for 3 TDs and Puka Nacua (10 receptions, 111 receiving yards, 2 TD) and Kyren Williams moved the chains for the visitors on offense when needed.
Despite the freezing temperatures and Rams track record in cold games, traders at Kalshi like the LA Rams (63%) over RB Andre Swift and Chicago (37%) with LA Rams wins by over 3.5 points at 51% and Over 47.5 points scored at 52%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Bears were the first NFL team to finish with the most Takeaways (33) and least Giveaways (11) since 2011, and Chicago has proved no opponent’s lead is safe, showing the ability to rally late in the 4th Quarter and win games like few we have seen this millennium.
The winner here will play the Seahawks-49ers winner in the NFC Championship Game next weekend and will likely go in as an underdog. Looking upstream, the forecast for Chicago is calling for snow showers, and the best possible theater for a big game like this.
With old and young gunslingers Stafford and Williams, and talented WRs (Moore, Odunze, Burden III, Nacua, Adams), there should be quick points no matter any weather, with so much at stake. Can someone tell AI Cooper Kupp is no longer on a Ram? Trading Pick: Over 47.5 points scored, Yes 54¢
Miami, Indiana Meet in CFP Championship Game on Monday
The final game of 2025 NCAA Division I FBS football season will kick off on Monday when #10 Miami (13-2) faces #1 Indiana (15-0) in the 2026 CFP National Championship from Hard Rock Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Miami Gardens, Florida (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST).
The Hurricanes blew threw #6 Ole Miss, 31-27 in the CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on January 8 to earn this berth in the national title game played in their hometown while the Hoosiers humbled #5 Oregon, 56-22 in the CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta on January 9.
At Kalshi, early trading saw Heisman Trophy winner Anthony Mendoza and Indiana (74%) getting the Game Winner market ‘Yes’ money over Miami Florida (27%) with Indiana wins by over 9.5 points at 49% and Over 48.5 points scored at 48%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The last time Indiana lost a game, Joe Biden was still president and Nicolás Maduro was eating five-star meals in his pajamas. Looking for an edge here is hard, as the Hurricanes have the great defense needed to try to slow down Mendoza and his receivers.
Looking at the points scored (Total) market seems safer here. IU has scored over 55 points six times (55, 56, 56, 56, 63, 73) and the Hoosiers have the greatest Point Differential (+473) in the CFP Era. There are few teams in any sport ever as efficient on offense as this unbeaten team.
With WRs Omar Cooper Jr, Elijah Sarratt, and Charlie Becker, even Miami will be pressed to stop IU from scoring, especially with so much on the line and a chance to bring a coveted title home to the Little Pink Houses and Bloomington. Trading Pick: More Than 48.5 Points Scored, Yes 48¢