A new year is upon us and that means the start of another Tennis season and the playing the first of the four majors, the 2026 Australian Open from the outdoor hardcourts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia from Monday, January 12 through Sunday, February 1.
The two big AO events are the Men’s and the Women’s singles. Last year, Italian Jannik Sinner won the Men’s bracket, defeating Alexander Zverev in straight sets while American Madison Keys was the Women’s winner, defeating two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in three sets.
Traders at Polymarket in the ‘2026 Men’s Australian Open Winner’ prediction market think the #2-ranked Sinner can three-peat (50%) Down Under in the Men’s competition, followed by Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz (34%), legend Novak Djokovic (7%), and Alexander Zverev (3%).
2026 Men’s Australian Open Winner
➤Trading Thoughts: Sinner was amazing in 2025, winning 6 titles—including here at the AO and Wimbledon—and going 58-6 in his Singles matches with his biggest nemesis the #1-ranked Alcarez who won the French Open and the US Open and beat Sinner in the ATP Finals.
With Alcaraz 3-2 vs Sinner in 2025 and 11-6 lifetime (4-2 Grand Slams, 10-6 ATP Tour level) vs the Italian sensation, the perceived value play here (trying to turn 32¢ into $1) is on Alcaraz (71-9 in Singles in 2025) who will look to start the year off right. Trading Pick: Carlos Alcaraz, Yes 34¢
Polymarket: ‘The Pitt’ to Win TV Drama Golden Globes
The 83rd Golden Globes will air live from the Beverly Hilton on Sunday night (CBS, Paramount+, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST) as comedian Nikki Glaser returns to host the annual and viewer-friendly gala honoring the best in Film and Television achievements over the past year.
There are numerous Golden Globes markets to trade in at Polymarket, including the popular ‘Best Television Series Drama Winner’ where TNT’s The Pitt (78%) is stomping the competition which includes Apple TV’s Pluribus (9%), Apple TV+’s Severance (8%), and HBO’s The White Lotus (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, FX/Hulu’s "Shōgun" won in this category, and it’s hard to see anyone beating The Pitt this time around. Noah Wylie (75%, Polymarket) is also nominated from the hit show for best Actor in a Television Series-Drama for his role as Dr Robby Robinavitch.
With so much ‘Yes’ trading on The Pitt, it may seem late to the party but Pluribus (92¢) and Severance (93.4¢) ‘No’ contracts were too pricey on December 31, making the favorite the only logical trade here. Trading Pick: The Pitt, Yes 80¢
Polymarket Jumps Into Real Estate Prediction Markets
On January 5, Polymarket announced a partnership with Parcl to launch Real Estate prediction markets using Parcl’s daily housing pricing indices which will allow the popular trading platform’s users to predict future home prices.
A decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol built on the Solana blockchain, Parcl is a real-time housing data and onchain real estate platform and provides users a very simple and quick method to go short or long on housing prices in real estate markets. The Parcl press release explained:
“Housing is the largest asset class in the world, but it’s still hard to express a clean view on price direction without taking on property-level complexity, leverage, or long timelines. By combining Parcl’s daily indices with Polymarket’s event-market structure, the partnership offers a simpler way to trade housing outcomes, with clear settlement rules and public, auditable resolution data.”
Parcl CEO Trevor Bacon said, "Prediction markets are gaining substantial momentum and represent a paradigm shift in how views are expressed, and truth is identified. Parcl is the source of truth for real-estate pricing, and we believe real estate should be a major category within the prediction-market ecosystem. Polymarket is a pioneer in the space, and we’re excited to partner with them.”
Greenland Still a Hot Topic in Prediction Markets
Manifold (formerly Manifold Markets) is a popular prediction market where a virtual currency is traded and not real money, where users participate in competitive forecasting and trade the play money called “Mana” which can be converted to “Prize Points” and used in various ways.
Manifold has a decent library of markets where members can trade through contracts some of the same things seen at Polymarket and Kalshi like politics, tech, sports, and culture. One interesting and new market featured at Manifold is ‘Will Trump Buy or Acquire part of Greenland?’
Rules: “Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the US acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029 then the market resolves ‘YES.’”
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
This market at this Manifold platform—where 19% were behind ‘Yes’—may not be the best indicator of a future truth, and looking at similar real-money markets Poymarket and Kalshi, we see somewhat different sentiments from traders on January 7.
At Polymarket, ‘Will Trump Acquire Greenland before 2027?’ (‘Yes’) was trading at 15% while ‘Will the US Take Control of Any Part of Greenland?’ was seeing more contracts (‘Yes’) bought with 42%
But the rules and wording are different in both of these markets and this may be one of those political markets best to avoid because of potential confusion. If the US takes Greenland, or any part of Greenland by force, does that constitute the same thing as “acquire.”
It is hard to tell at this point in history if Donald J. Trump and prediction markets will be inextricably linked, but the number of strange markets constantly generated by one almost 80-year-old man who once hosted The Celebrity Apprentice is simply mind-boggling.
Do Polymarket Traders Know the Oscar Nominees?
One interesting thing about Prediction Markets (PMs) is how well they can foretell the future in things like TV and streaming shows, political elections, and awards shows through public sentiment (and money) and the ‘Oscars 2026: Best Actor Nominations’ market at Polymarket may have tabbed the nominees already.
As of Tuesday, January 6, four actors were trading at more than 88% with another at 73% to earn a nomination for the Best Actor award at the 2026 Academy Awards. There are five nominees in this prestigious category.
Leonardo DiCaprio (99%), Timothée Chalamet (99%), Michael B. Jordan (94%), and Wagner Moura (89%), and all look like sure things if you believe PM numbers with Ethan Hawke (77%) also likely garnering a nomination. Jessie Plemons (31%) and Joel Edgerton (16%) were next.
Nominations for the 98th Oscars are scheduled for Thursday, January 22 with the Academy Award set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles (ABC, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT).
6—Will Bitcoin Hit an All-Time High in 2026?
The year 2025 was a revealing one for Bitcoin (BTC), with the popular cryptocurrency reaching an all-time high ($126,922.77) on October 5 from good regulatory news and positive ETF inflows but then plummeting in November-December, trading under $90,000 ($88,130.90 January 1, 2026).
For the year, Bitcoin—which saw Satoshi move no Bitcoin—was down around 6% in a year that saw the DJIA (+15-16%), the NASDAQ (+20-21%), Gold (63-70%), and surprise superstar Silver (+130-160%) all rise with fellow crypto Ethereum (ETH) also showing a YTD decline (-12 to -20%).
Where we go from here is anyone's guess in this extremely volatile market, but at Polymarket. You can trade on if ‘Bitcoin (Will Reach an) all-Time High By ___?’ this new calendar year, with four trading outcome dates listed, one for each of the four seasons.
The March 31, 2026 (11%) and Winter listing is obviously getting the least amount of ‘Yes’ love with traders doubting Bitcoin will fly from $88K to $127K in the first three months of the Year of the Fire Horse (Red Horse) in the Chinese Zodiac.
The color red is generally frowned upon by traders but embraced by women 18 to 48.
The June 30, 2026 (28%) and Spring date may seem a little more optimistic, but the current ‘No’ price for that date (83¢) as well as for the Autumn and September 30 (38%) date shows the insecurity. IOt’s easy to understand when everything went up in 2025 but BTC and ETH.
The most positive date in this market is December 31, 2026 (46%), but that is playing the calendar more than any potential upward movement over these next 12 months. When BTC hit $126K, it seemed like $150K was inevitable, but by Thanksgiving and Christmas traders knew better.
➤Trading Thoughts: Some markets are best played looking at them from the ‘No’ point of view, and this one may be one. What happens in January will be very revealing and if we see BTC staying in this tight $88-92K range, then that will be perceived as still long-term bearish.
Note: All four levels dropped at least 2% in the hour or so writing this section on January 1, 2026.
This market is interesting, but perhaps the ‘Will Bitcoin Hit $80K or $150K First?’ will be a better (and quicker) trade with BTC needing to only fall $8K more to be at $80K but needing to rise $62K to get to $150K and a new all-time high. Trading Pick: Bitcoin to $80K First, 83.5¢
NFC Wild Card: Rams vs Panthers Open up Saturday
The Wild Card round kicks off on Saturday with this intriguing NFC battle between the Panthers (8-9-, 5-3 Home) and the Rams (12-5, 5-4 Road) from Bank of America Stadium (FieldTurf Vertex CORE) in Charlotte, North Carolina (FOX, 4:30 EST/3:30 CST/1:30 PST).
Why intriguing? Because the #5-seed Rams looked like the class of the NFL most of the season and the #4-seed Carolina ended with a losing record and needed the Falcons to beat the Saints in Week 18 to edge out the Buccaneers for the NFC South title and this spot. Get it? Got it? Good.
Traders at Kalshi love the LA Rams (82%) over host Carolina (18%) in the most lopsided Game Winner market of the Wild Card round with LA Rams win by over 10.5 points at 48% and Over 46.5 points scored at 50%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The thought QB Matt Stafford and the Rams will win easily is understandable as QB Bryce Young and the Panthers will have too much trouble trying to score points over four quarters while LA is loaded with weapons like WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams who will play.
Expect the Rams to go heavily to RB Kyren Williams to try to establish the run game, and expect it to work. Though better in 2025, Carolina is still a bad football team and someone from the NFC South had to advance. Trading Pick: Rams to win by over 10.5 points, Yes 49¢
NFC Wild Card: Packers at Bears on Saturday Night
One of the best rivalries in all of sports will play out for the third time this season when the Bears (11-6, 6-2 Home) host the Packers (9-7-1, 4-4-1 Road) at Soldier Field (Bermuda Grass) in Chicago on Saturday night in an NFC Wild Card showdown (Prime Video, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
QB Caleb Williams and Chicago—the first team in the NFL to finish a year with the most Takeaways (33) and least Giveaways (11) since 2011, comes in as the NFC North champions and the #2 seed while Green Bay are the #7 seed and on a 4-game losing streak.
Traders at Kalshi like Chicago (51%) over Green Bay (49%) with Chicago wins by over 2.5 points at 46% and Over 46.5 points scored at 46%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Packers are not only on a losing streak, but very beat up with RDE Micah Parsons on the IR and backup QB Malik Willis hurt, but QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs, and WR Christian Watson all have healed and will ready to go in the Windy City.
In the two prior meetings this season, Chicago lost 28-21 at Lambeau Field but won the return leg in Chitown, 22-6 in an OT thriller. The forecast is for freezing weather by Lake Michigan and being a night game will only make it sting more. Still, points have to be scored, right? Trading Pick: Over 46.5 points scored, Yes 47¢
AFC Wild Card: Bills at Jaguars Opens Up Play Sunday
The first of three Sunday NFL Wild Card games will see QB Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (13-4, 7-2 Home) hosting QB Josh Allen and the Bills (12-5, 5-3 Road) at EverBank Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Jacksonville, Florida (CBS, 1 EST/12 CST/10 PST).
Upstart Jacksonville earned the #3 seed as the AFC South champions and this home game against a solid Buffalo side seeded #6. At Kalshi, Pro football traders like Buffalo (50%) over Jacksonville (50%) with Buffalo wins by over 2.5 points at 45% and Over 51.5 points scored at 51%.
EverBank Stadium
➤Trading Thoughts: These two are both 10-10-0 in the 20 lifetime meetings, but Jacksonville has held Buffalo in check in the Sunshine State, winning the last 3 straight and holding the Bills to just 9 total points on 3 FGs in the last two meetings at Jacksonville.
Lawrence has better weapons now than just RB Travis Etienne Jr like WRs Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr, and Jakobi Meyers, and a reliable TE in Brenton Strange. Of all the games on Sunday, this seems like the best chance for a shootout. Trading Pick: Over 51.5 points, Yes 53¢
NFC Wild Card: 49ers at Eagles Showdown on Sunday
The second of three NFL Wild Card games on Sunday will feature QB Jalen Hurts and the defending Super Bowl champ Eagles (11-6, 5-3 Home) playing host to the 49ers (12-5, 7-2 Road) at Lincoln Financial Field (HERO Hybrid Grass) in Philadelphia (FOX, 4:30 EST/3:30 CST/1:30 PST).
San Francisco had a shot at the #1 seed in the NFC but lost to Seattle, so the Niners are #6 vs the #3-seeded and NFC East champion Eagles. Philadelphia (66%) was the choice over SF (34%) at Kalshi with Philadelphia wins by over 3.5 points at 55% and Over 43.5 points scored at 54%.
Lincoln Financial Field
➤Trading Thoughts: The Eagles will expect to protect the home turf but the 49ers are one of the best Road teams (7-2) and won ‘t be intimidated in the City of Brotherly Love and Big Shoulder Pads. In the last 12 meetings, the Eagles are 8-4-0 but lifetime, SF is 21-15-1 vs Philadelphia.
This one could go either way but with SF QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey playing so well and RB Saquon Barkley more focused and the Philly defense (19.1 PPG, #5) back, maybe expecting points is the best trading angle. Trading Pick: Over 43.5 Points Scored, Yes 51¢
AFC Wild Card: Chargers at Patriots on Sunday Night
The third of the three Sunday NFL Wild Card games will see the Patriots (14-3, 6-3 Home) welcoming the Chargers (11-6, 5-3 Road) to Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Sunday Night Football (NBC, Peacock, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
New England had a dream turnaround season behind Head Coach Mike Vrabel and QB Drake Maye and head in as the #2-seed but will have its hands full with the QB Justin Herbert and the #7-seed Chargers.
The winner here moves on to the AFC Divisional Round next weekend. At Kalshi, New England (64%) was getting the love over the LA Chargers (37%) with New England wins by over 3.5 points at 51% and Over 45.5 points scored at 51%.
Gillette Stadium
➤Trading Thoughts: The Patriots are 27-12-2 lifetime vs the Chargers, going 7-3-0 the last 10, but losing the last two at The Razor by a combined 46-7 score and the last time, a 40-7 stomping in Maye’s rookie season as LA won the Total Yards (428-181) and 1st downs (29-11) metrics easily.
The Patriots are obviously better now than they were then and things like the home crowd, TreVeyon Henderson, WR Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, and an improved defense (18.8 PPG, #4) make NE the choice here. Trading Pick: New England Wins By Over 3.5 points, Yes 51¢
AFC Wild Card: Texans at Steelers on Monday Night Football
The final game of NFL WIld Card weekend sees the Steelers (10-7, 6-3 Home) hosting the Texans (12-5, 5-3 Road) in a classic AFC Wild Card slugfest from Acrisure Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Monday Night Football (ABC, ESPN, 8:15 EST/5:15 PST).
Pittsburgh made the NFL Playoffs in miraculous fashion, holding off the Ravens in the Steel City on Sunday in Week 18 and the last game of the NFL Regular Season as a FG attempt by Baltimore drifted wide right, giving Head Coach Mike Tomlin and the hosts the chance to play on this season.
Houston continued to play stellar football in Week 18, winning its 9th straight, topping Indianapolis 38-30. The win for Pittsburgh got them the #4-seed and Home edge here while Houston has a better record but were in second place in the AFC South, and thus, the #5-seed.
The winner will move on to the AFC Divisional Round next weekend. At Kalshi, trading saw Houston (58%) getting the early Game Winner market ‘Yes’ money over Pittsburgh (42%) with Houston wins by over 2.5 points at 54% and Over 39.5 points scored at 48%.
➤Trading Thoughts: There are too many conflicting trends here to choose a side. The Steelers have won 23 straight games on Monday Night Football while the Texans (3-5-0 lifetime vs PIT) haven’t lost since November 2 and the Road team is 2-5 in the last 7 played in this series.
Houston has the second-best defense in the NFL (17.4 PPG) while Pittsburgh has a future Hall of Fame QB, the home crowd, and will get WR DK Metcalf back after a 2-game suspension. This could go either way and is like flipping a coin in both major markets. Trading Pick: None
