Prediction market giant Polymarket begins to re-emerge after its hibernation with the New York City-based exchange out of beta and into full launch mode and rolling out the app to traders on its waitlist with sports being served up again in the United States with other markets to follow.
Polymarket had blocked access to customers here in the US since 2022 after it was banned in the country for violating Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules on event-based betting and operating as an unregistered derivatives exchange.
The company paid a $1.4 million fine and the settlement to stop operating in the US until it was licensed and regulated. But when the prediction market-friendly Trump administration came into office, the inquiry into Polymarket was dropped and CEO Shayne Coplan could smile once again.
Polymarket received approval to relaunch live in late 2025, and now they’re back again in the US—the richest country in the world with a seemingly insatiable appetite for trading and sports gambling in The Digital Age.
And in a modern instance of trade imitating art, Polymarket offered a market if “Will Polymarket US Go Live in 2025?” and of course the “Yes” traders were rewarded last week for their optimism and confidence the popular prediction market would beat the calendar in the United States.
A Google Search Markets-gate at Polymarket?
There was something fishy going on with a trader at Polymarket, and we can leave it to the internet sleuths familiar with the prediction market to try to expose some suspicious trading.
An account AlphaRaccoon reportedly profited $1,000,000 on a single day, going 22-for-23 on his or her trades at Polymarket. The problem? Google accidentally pushed the “Google Search” results early and then removed them. Oops.
Twitter account JeongHaeju said this trader previously profited $150,000 with his correct prediction of the early release of Gemini 3.0 before the results were out. Is this someone at Google using Kalshi to his or her advantage in select markets where they may have privy information?
List of Major Companies Teaming Up Continues to Grow
The prediction market supercycle continues to churn with news coming out daily not only in this space, but in other companies who are changing as fast as the times. Besides Polymarket coming back with a slow launch and Fanatics launching in six states, here’s what else happened.
Kalshi was busy unveiling new partnerships with CNN and CNBC so those two networks will be integrating prediction networks into their newsrooms. ESPN’s ESPN Bet vanished like DB Cooper with DraftKings replacing them at the network. PENN rebranded ESPN Bet to theScore bet.
We also saw Netflix buy Warner Brothers and Prada buying out Versace for $1.4 billion.
Fanatics Launches Prediction Markets in the US
Fanatics rolled out its prediction market named Fanatics Markets last Wednesday with CEO Michael Rubin unveiling an expected two-phase launch, starting with the company offering event contracts in sports.
Early in 2026, Fanatics is expected to add finance, tech, entertainment, culture, and music and other Yes-No contracts for traders. The Fanatics app is now available in the iOS app store and the prediction platform was expected to be live in 24 states by last weekend.
Those states are California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, and Delaware.
In a statement, Fanatics Betting and Gaming CEO Matt King said, “For years, Fanatics has given fans new ways to enhance their fandom through team merchandise, collectibles, tickets, gaming, events and more.”
“Now, with Fanatics Markets, we’re giving fans a safe, and intuitive way to engage with the moments that move sports and culture, and to pick a side and profit along the way if their prediction is correct.”
Kalshi Co-Founder Luana Lopes Lara Makes a Little History
Twenty-nine-year-old Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara made history last week when she became the youngest self-made billionaire after a funding round valued the popular regulated prediction market platform at $11 billion.
The former ballerina surpassed musical artist Taylor Swift and Scale AI co-founder Lucy Guo with a net worth of more than $1.3 billion after Kalshi raised some $1 billion in new equity.
Who Will be the First Member to Leave the Trump Cabinet?
We are almost one year into the second Trump administration and several members of his cabinet have come under scrutiny for this and for that, so the “Who Will be the First to Leave the Trump Cabinet?” market at Kalshi is a fun one and sooner or later because someone’s gotta go.
This is the “You’re fired” president after all.
Traders in this market have made The Artist Formerly Known As The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth (24%) the solid co-favorite in this market and after leaking war plans on Signal to a journalist, it’s no wonder they are buying “Yes” on the former Fox & Friends Weekend co-host.
Following in trading order are Kristi Noem (24%), Pam Bondi (11%), Susie Wiles (6%), Chris Wright (6%), Stephan Miran (5%), Scott Bessent (4%), Tulsi Gabbard (4%), Howard Ludnick (4%), Marco Rubio (3%), and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3%).
Trading Thoughts: The rumblings about Secretary of War Hegseth getting replaced have grown louder of late, with the killing of two survivors on one of the Venezuelan boat strikes further putting the pressure on the 45-year-old Minneapolis product.
Because of pride, foolish or not, Trump will probably wait as long as possible to fire anyone in his Cabinet, as after all, these are his picks, right? But when the time comes, it seems obvious by looking at the face of Hegseth that he is in the dog house. Trading Pick: Pete Hegseth Yes 34¢
Polymarket Offering Trading in the Call of Duty League
The Call of Duty League (CDL) was formed and launched in January of 2020 and replaced the Call of Duty World League (CWL) with a more sports-like structure and business model with city-based teams for the e-sports competitions. And the new CDL season just started last weekend.
There are 12 teams in the CDL with funky names like the Paris Gentle Mates, FaZe Vegas, Riyadh Falcons, G2 Minnesota, OpTic Texas, the Boston Breach, the Carolina Royal Flames, the Miami Heretics, the Los Angeles Thieves, the Vancouver Surge, and the Toronto KOI.
The league is structured into two tiers, with a Call of Duty Challengers competition for amateur players and this “Majors” and Championship tournament for the paid players. Yes, e-sports players get paid and a drone can deliver you a pizza. OpTic Texas are the two-time reigning CDL champs.
Trading Thoughts: I have seen more Krygyz Premier League matches than Call of Duty League games, so any advice given would be like Yoko Ono singing but this is Christmas and you seek an edge so back the champs when they play Miami on December 13? Trading Pick: OpTic Texas Yes
Real Madrid Meeting Man City in UEFA CL on Wednesday
The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League resumes play this week and will see Spanish giants Real Madrid (4-0-1), playing EPL heavyweights Manchester City (3-1-1) at Estadio Bernabéu (Mixto Hybrid Grass Technology in Madrid, Spain on Wednesday (Paramount+, 3 EST/2CST/12 PST).
Kylian Mbappé (9 goals) and the hosts at “Yes” (39.4%) at prediction exchange Myriad Markets for this League Phase match from Spain with Erlin Haaland (5 goals), Phil Foden (2 goals), and the Citizens and a possible Draw making the “No” 60.8% in Will Real Madrid Defeat Man City?
Trading Thoughts: We have been pretty good to traders with advice on Soccer at The Prediction Report, nailing German Bundesliga, French Ligue 1, Spanish La Liga, and Italian Serie A matches for our readers. The more you know going in, the easier it is to pull the strings in the end.
Here, veteran GK Thibaut Courtois and Real Madrid as at home in a building where the Madristas seldom lose—Real Madrid are 197-33-25 at home in the UCL all-time—but the Citizens have been in better form as of late with Man City going 4-1-1 in October and 4-0-2 in November.
With the electric Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, and Vinícius Júnior on one side and Haaland, Foden, and Jérémy Doku on the other, there should be at least 3 goals scored despite the importance of the fixture and the two talented starting GKs.Trading Pick: Over 2.5 goals Yes 66¢ (Kalshi)
Buccaneers Host Falcons in NFC South Game Thursday
NFL Week 14 kicks off with this NFC South showdown between the Buccaneers (7-6, 3-3 at Home) welcoming the Falcons (4-9, 2-5 Road) to Raymond James Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Tampa, Florida for Thursday Night Football (Prime Video, 8:15 EST/5:15 PST).
When these two rivals met earlier this season in Week 1, Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay grounded the Michael Penix and the Dirty Birds in Atlanta, 23-20 to set the tone for another chasing season for Michael Penix and Atlanta.
NFL traders at Kalshi like the Buccaneers here (68%) over the visiting Falcons (32%) with Tampa Bay wins by over 3.5 points at 56% and the more than 44.5 points scored trading at 53%.
Trading Thoughts: The Falcons seem like Charlie Brown when it comes to football. The all-time series is tied 32-32-0 but iIn the last 11 meetings, TB has gone 4-7-0 vs Atlanta, losing the last 2 in the Sunshine State. Still, TB is the better team. Trading Pick: Buccaneers Game Winner, Yes 69¢
NCAAF Week 16 and Army vs Navy is like Watermusic or Watermusic II by William Basinski in that the game is the only song on the album just like these magical one-song albums. And it’s like “The End” on The Beatles’ Abbey Road as it’s always the last game of the FBS Regular Season.
At M&T Bank Stadium (Tifway 319 Bermuda Grass) in Baltimore, Maryland on Saturday afternoon (CBS, 12 EST/11 CST/9 PST), Army (6-5, 4-4 AAC) will line up against rivals Navy (9-2, 7-1 AAC) for the gig annual game between the service academies (Navy lead 63-55-7).
In this third and final game in the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy series, NCAAF traders at Kalshi like Navy (69%) this year over Army (31%). The Point Spread sees the Midshipmen favored by 6.5 points over the Black Knights with the Total (Over) trading at 38.5 (Yes 54¢, No 49¢.)
Trading Thoughts: This iconic College Football series has been pretty even over the last 10 series meetings with Navy winning 6 and Army winning 4 in generally low-scoring games with 31 the highest number of points the winner has had over that span (Navy 2025, 2019).
Navy is 66-55-7 lifetime and can pass (136.4 PPG, #133) despite QB Blake Horvath and the Middies (32.5 PPG, #33) ranking #1 in the nation in Rushing (298.4 PPG). Army is allergic to throwing the ball (78.3 YPG, #136) and average 23.2 PPG (#100).Trading Pick: Navy -6.5, Yes 52¢
Chiefs Fighting For Their Lives vs Chargers on Sunday
The Wizard of Oz Andy Reid always has his Chiefs (6-7-0, 5-2-0 Home) in the Super Bowl but KC is chasing the dream this season and Justin Herbert and the Chargers (8-4, 3-2-0 Road) would love nothing more than to burst Patrick Mahomes and the hosts’ bubble Sunday (CBS, 1 EST/10 PST).
In Week 14 action, the Chiefs fell to the Texans in Kansas City while the Bolts hosted the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Monday Night Football.
In this matchup from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Northbridge Bermudagrass) in Kansas City, Missouri , traders at Kalshi are behind the Chiefs (66%) with the Chargers (34%) road underdogs. KC wins by over 3.5 points at 49% with and the Over 44.5 points scored at 50%.
Trading Thoughts: When these two AFC West rivals met in Week 1 at Lalaland, the Chargers won, 27-21 as Herbert threw for 3 TDs and the hosts led the whole way. Lifetime, KC is 71-59-1 vs the Chargers and Travis Kelce and the Chiefs are a dominating 10-3 in the last 13 series meetings.
Because Kansas City has been so dominant at home since 2020, going 38-11 after losing to the Texans in a must-win showdown last weekend, lean to the homeboys here, but not enough confidence to want to trade on the game. Trading Pick: None
Patriots Hosting Bills in Big AFC East Game on Sunday
The surprise AFC East team, the Patriots (11-2-0, 5-2-0 Home) are in the driver’s seat, so this game vs the Bills (9-4-0, 3-3-0 Road) at Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Sunday is much more important to the visitors (CBS, 1 EST/10 PST).
In Week 14 action, Josh Allen and Buffalo welcomed Joe Burrow and the Bengals to Buffalo and the Bills bounced Cincinnati, 39-34. Drake Maye and NE were off and enjoying a bye week after humiliating the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 13 so the hosts will be very well-rested.
NFL traders at Kalshi like the AFC-leading Patriots (51%) here over the Bills (49%) with the New England wins by over 2.5 points at 44% (Yes 47¢, No 56¢) and the Over 48.5 points scored at 56%
Trading Thoughts: When these two played earlier this 2025-26 NFL Regular Season in Week 5, the Patriots won 23-20 at Buffalo in a game that was 6-3 at halftime, with talented rookie Treveyon Henderson (Ohio State) and the Patriots setting the tone for the rest of the way.
Looking at the last 12 meetings between these AFC East rivals, we see that Buffalo is 8-4, despite 2 straight wins by NE in the series and 2 straight at home in Foxborough. Lifetime, the Patriots are 80-51-1 vs the Bills. NE has won 10 straight. Trading Pick: Patriots Game Winner Yes 51¢
