For a 23rd year at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, the Grammy Awards will be presented for the 68th time as the Recording Academy recognizes achievement in 2025 in the music industry this Sunday, February 1 (CBS, Paramount+, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST).
Hosted for a sixth straight time by comedian Trevor Noah, this year’s GRAMMY’S will see two new categories in Best Album Cover and Best Traditional Country Album, both categories you can find for trading at Polymarket in the midst of Awards season.
Here are seven of the most popular Grammy Awards and markets to look for on Sunday in LA:
Trading for these larger categories has been open at Polymarket a while, and we have previewed several categories here at The Prediction Report leading up to this much-anticipated annual event. We will preview Best Rap Song winner below along with three other Grammy Awards markets.
Grammy Awards Preview: Best Rap Song Winner
On the now extensive GRAMMYS menu at Polymarket is the Best Rap Song Winner, where we saw a big flip from January 22 to 23 where traders suddenly jumped on ”The Birds Don’t Sing” by Clipse, featuring John Legend, Voices of Fire, Pusha T, and Malice (62%, up 37% from 25%).
The rap song “tv off” (46%) by Kendrick Lamar had been the market’s favorite, but this was a new and hardly liquid market with Polymarket showing $7 on the former and $139 on the latter at that time. Either way, it seems like it is a two-way battle for the award on the night of February 1.
The three other candidates were “Sticky” (44%) by Tyler the Creator featuring GloRilla, Sexyy Red & Lil Wayne, and “Anxiety” (7%) by Doechii, and “TGIF” (4%) by GloRilla.
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts: At last year’s 2025 Grammy Awards, "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar won the Best Rap Song, so will the Recording Academy want to give it to Lamar for a second straight year? This may be a reason why ”The Birds Don’t Sing” jumped so much overnight, but we will see.
Both songs are wonderful lyrically, with the favorite from the hip-hop duo Clipse (Pusha T and Malice) off the 2025 album Let God Sort Em Out is very profound and an instant earworm:
The birds don't sing
The birds don't sing, they screech in pain
With the thought Lamar won’t win it two straight years, the approach here would be a small and fun recreational trade on the Clipse entry with Lamar’s song more likely to win in the Grammys: Best Rap Performance category. Trading Pick: The Birds Don’t Sing by Clipse, Yes 79¢
Grammy Awards Preview: Best Rock Album Winner
The Rolling Stones, U2, The Foo Fighters, Sheryl Crow, and Green Day have all had great success in the Best Rock Album category at the Grammy Awards, with each winning at least two times each.
There are three main favorites in the Best Rock Album offering at Polymarket in “private music” by Deftones (57%), “NEVER ENOUGH” by Turnstile (20%), and “Idols” by YUNGBLUD (15%). The longshots were “From Zero” by Linkin Park (10%), and “I quit” by HAIM (9%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, the Recording Academy gave The Rolling Stones their second Best Rock Album Grammy for Hackney Diamonds—they also won in 1995 with Voodoo Lounge in the first year the award was given—but whoever wins this year will be a first-time Grammy winner.
Linkin Park was nominated in 2002 for Hybrid Theory, but the California rockers lost to U2 (All That You Can’t Leave Behind). So can From Zero deliver the Crypto.com Arena memories? Traders have cooled on that album. Lean Deftones. Trading Pick: private music by Deftones, Yes 65¢
Grammy Awards Preview: Best Pop Vocal Album Winner
Trading in the Best Pop Vocal Album category at the GRAMMYS this year seems a lot like the Best Rap Album category (Kendrick Lamar) with the Recording Academy possibly avoiding back-to-back winners with Sabrina Carpenter winning here in 2025 with Short ‘n Sweet.
This year, it’s her album Man’s Best Friend (26%) that is in the running, but Lady Gaga’s “MAYHEM” (72%) looks like a sure thing here with the pop superstar now approaching 40 years old and the younger Carpenter (26) likely having many more albums coming in her musical career.
Following the two favorites Gaga and Carpenter at Polymarket were “Something Beautiful” by Miley Cyrus (2%), “SWAG” by Justin Bieber (2%), and “I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy - Part 2” by Teddy Swims (1%). Women have won this category six of the last seven years and will win again.
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the history of the Best Pop Vocal Album, we see no artist has won two consecutive years in a category which has seen wins by The Beatles, Ray Charles, Madonna, Amy Winehouse, Sting, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga who won in 2011 for The Fame Monster.
Expect the Recording Academy to reward Lady Gaga again, with the price still decent enough to try to churn some profit from, unlike many other GrammyAwards categories at this late point in time. Trading Pick: MAYHEM by Lady Gaga, Yes 72¢
Interactive Brokers CEO: Weather is Our Most Traded PM
Thomas Peterffy, the founder and CEO of Interactive Brokers, recently said that Weather and Temperature were the platform’s most-traded and was expecting for utility companies to start hedging electricity and gas via prediction market event contracts.
Peterffy is an 81-year-old Hungarian billionaire—the 27th richest man in the world ($57.3B)—and the largest shareholder of IB (IBKR: NASDAQ). He emigrated to the US to join his father in 1965 from Budapest and he now lives in Palm Beach, Florida and has another home in Aspen, Colorado.
In 1977, Peterffy purchased a seat on the American Stock Exchange (ASE) as an individual market maker and formed the company TP & Co. in 1978, which has ultimately evolved into the popular and trusted online discount brokerage Interactive Brokers.
Interactive Brokers
“So our most frequently traded contracts are temperature contracts. We are currently working on tying up these temperature contracts with the electricity contracts and the natural gas contracts,” Peterffy, an avid equestrian, told James Edwin Yaro after IBKR’s last earnings call.
“And as you know, it is basically the utilities that have to every day make a judgement about the next use of electricity. So we are approaching those. And that sometime in the course of the year, you will see them onboarding.”
So Sports isn’t a priority at IB but they are heavy on Politics, Crypto, Financials, as well as precise metrics like Will the highest temperature in San Francisco exceed 56° F on January 23, 2026? Before you laugh, there are traders who specialize in this and are now millionaires. We’ll look at some unique traders in future volumes of The Prediction Report.
Forbes Adding ‘ForbesPredict’ to its Website
Scheduled to launch in beta in February on the Forbes website, ForbesPredict—built for readers and not traders—will be a widget next to articles allowing readers to vote but not actually trade (or bet) on the outcomes.
Sara Guaglione of Digiday reported, “The publisher (Forbes) worked with tech startup company Axiom (Axiom founder and CEO Jeff Yam is a Forbes board member) to build its own prediction platform—ForbesPredict—which will launch in beta in February.”
But unlike Kalshi and Polymarket which see users trading in real currencies, the new Forbes platform—designed for engagement and entertainment—will allow readers to make their own forecasts on the tool and track (voting) results to earn tokens if Forbes follows with its plan.
Forbes
“The Predict tool will appear as a widget next to articles. Instead of letting users bet real money on news, Forbes is gamifying predictions to boost onsite engagement, and foster reader loyalty as it shifts away from relying on traffic” said Nina Gould, Forbes chief innovation officer.
Axiom CEO and Forbes Executive Board Member Yam said, “We’re building the prediction layer for media. Forbes readers already use our reporting to make real world decisions—about markets, careers, and what comes next.”
“Structured predictions make that influence measurable, turning informed judgment into signals readers and journalists can trust, rather than by noise driven by speculation or betting incentives.”
What Will be Bad Bunny’s SB Halftime Opening Song?
The Super Bowl is set for Sunday at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, February 8 where Bad Bunny will be the halftime show and Kalshi has a prediction market for what the first song will be from the 31-year-old from Puerto Rico known as the “Latin King of Trap.”
Last year, it was Kendrick Lamar who was the halftime act for the NFL’s biggest game, and although no one will ever live up the performance Prince did in 2007 at Super Bowl XLI in the purple rain in Miami, Bad Bunny will come to thrill in San Francisco? But what will he open with?
Traders were backing Tití Me Preguntó (45%) and BAILE INoVIDABLE (19%), with the songs LA MuNDANZA (13%), NUEVAYoL (7%), DiMF (4%), I Like It (4%), and DÁKITI (3%) all getting some ‘Yes’ contracts at Kalshi.
Kalshi
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a hard one to offer any advice on, as I am relatively unfamiliar with Mr Bunny’s works although I have heard many of his songs. On his last DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS World Tour last year, Bad Bunny opened with LA MuNDANZA every show.
But this being the Super Bowl makes me think he may want to shake things up and the traders are obviously thinking the same way, looking at the two favorites over a week out from the big game between the AFC champion Patriots and the NFC champion Seahawks.Trading Pick: None
#3 Michigan at #7 Michigan State in Big Ten Friday
There’s a great NCAA Basketball matchup in the Big Ten Conference in primetime on Friday night as #3 Michigan (19-1, 9-1 Big Ten) faces rivals and #7 Michigan State (19-2, 9-1 Big Ten) at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST).
At Polymarket on Thursday, College Basketball traders liked Michigan (54¢) over Michigan State (48¢) with the Wolverines -1.5 in the Point Spread market with the Total at 145.5. The volume ($21.42K) was healthy for 30 hours from tipoff.
Michigan/Michigan State
➤Trading Thoughts: Last season in conference play, the Spartans swept the Wolverines, winning 75-62 vs Michigan at home in Ann Arbor on February 21, 2025 and then beating the Wolverines 79-62 in East Lansing on March 9, 2025 after also sweeping them in two games in 2024.
With F Jaxon Kohler (13.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG), G Jeremy Fears Jr (13.1 PPG), F Coen Carr (11.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG), and C Carson Cooper (10.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG), MSU has a starting five to make it 5 straight vs Michigan and at the Breslin Center, an easy suggestion Trading Pick: MSU Game Winner, Yes 48¢
Dybantsa, #13 BYU at #14 Kansas on Saturday in NCAAB
Besides #6 Houston and #9 Iowa State, the Big 12 Conference has two pretty good teams this year in #13 BYU (17-3, 5-2 Big 12) and #14 Kansas (15-5, 5-2 Big 12), and the Cougars and Jayhawks collide Saturday afternoon at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas (ESPN, 4:30 EST/1:30 PST).
BYU features a budding superstar in freshman F AJ Dybantsa (22.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.5 APG), and many feel the Brockton, Massachusetts native has a good chance of being one of the top three picks in the 2026 NBA Draft this Summer.
At Polymarket, Men’s Naismith College Player of the Year candidate Darryn Peterson, Kansas (57%) is the traders’ choice over BYU (43%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Jayhawks are 4-3 lifetime vs BYU and 1-1 at Lawrence Fieldhouse, losing to the Dribbling Mormons at Kansas the last meeting there (2024). BYU has won the last 2 meetings, crushing Kansas, 91-57 in Provo last season in February in Big 12 Conference play.
The historic site weighs heavy here and Kansas is an amazing 37-5 at home the last 3 seasons, but one of those five losses was to BYU. This game will be televised on ESPN and is a must-watch for hoops fans as these could be two Sweet Sixteen teams come late March. Trading Pick: None
Saint Mary’s at #6 Gonzaga in WCC Classic on Saturday
One of the great non-Power conference rivalries is in the West Coast Conference (WCC) and on the hardwood where #6 Gonzaga (21-1, 9-0 WCC) and Saint Mary’s (19-3, 8-1 WCC) meet every season (at least) two times. But sadly, that will all be coming to an end this Winter.
Why? Because HC Mark Few and perennial hoops powerhouse Gonzaga accepted an invitation in 2024 to move to the Pac-12 Conference. On Saturday, the Bulldogs and Gaels meet for the first time this season at the McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Washington (FOX, 8 EST/5 PST).
At Polymarket, CBB traders like hosts Gonzaga (62%) over rivals Saint Mary’s (38%).
Gongaza/Saint Mary’s
➤Trading Thoughts: These rivals played three times in 40 days in WCC play last year with the Gaels winning both Regular Season meetings (62-58, 74-67) but losing to the Zags in WCC Tournament Final here in LV at Orleans Arena where the door handles are alligators (58-51).
With Paulius Murauskas (19.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) back, Saint Mary’s will again challenge Graham Ike (18.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and Gonzaga, but after losing in Spokane last year, the Bulldogs will be ready. These two meet for the last WCC time possibly on February 28 at Moraga, CA (ESPN, 10:30 EST).
Gonzaga leads the all-time series 82-37 but Saint Mary’s has gone 6-5 over the last 11, including two wins the last two in Spokane (2024, 2025). There was no Total (points) at press time, but it seems this game could be low-scoring. Trading Pick: None
LeBron, Lakers at Knickerbockers and MSG on Sunday
Future NBA Hall of Famer LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers (28-16, 16-10 Road) tip off with Jalen Brunson and the Knicks (29-18, 18-6 Home) at Madison Square Garden in New York City in a nice interconference game (NBA, Peacock, Telemundo, 7 EST/6 CST/5 MST/4 PST).
Polymarket traders were split between New York (50%) and Luka Dončić and the LA Lakers (50%).
Madison Square Garden
➤Trading Thoughts: Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks have been great at home in the Big Apple, while the Lakers have struggled away from Lalaland lately, going 3-6 in their last 9. But the Lakers have been good vs Atlantic teams (3-1) while the Knicks bad vs Pacific Division teams (1-4).
When LBJ and The Lake Show played in MSG last season, LA won 128-112 as King James had 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 12 assists and the Purple and Gold also won at home last season. This one should be high-scoring. Trading Pick: Over
Arsenal Hosting Chelsea in EFL Cup Quarters on Tuesday
Defending EPL champions and current league leaders Arsenal FC welcome Londontown rivals Chelsea FC to Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in North London on Tuesday in Leg 2 of their English Carabao Cup (EFL) Semifinals (Paramount+, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
In Leg 1 of this EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) Semifinal at Stamford Bridge on January 14, the Gunners grabbed a 2-0 lead and held on for a 3-2 win as Alejandro Garnacho had a brace for the Blues.
At the Polymarket exchange, traders are behind host Arsenal (58%) against Chelsea (20%) with a Draw trading at 24% in the match winner market. In the EFL Cup Winner market at Kalshi, traders are torn between Manchester City (48%) and Arsenal (48%) with Chelsea trading at just 6%.
EMIRATES STADIUM
➤Trading Thoughts: In the last 11 North West London Derby fixtures, Cole Palmer, João Pedro, and Chelsea are an anemic 1-3-7 vs Arsenal, and down 3-2 in aggregate and not in particularly great form of late, the Blues will have to play the perfect match to get to the Carabao Cup Final.