The 2025-26 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament gets underway tonight and Wednesday with the First Four play-in games between the eight potential #16 seeds in the Big Dance, with the winners advancing on to the real dance where all four will be eliminated by Friday.
We came. We saw. We got our asses kicked. But hey, Bubba, we got paid. Teams making the 2025 NCAA Tournament received about $2 million each, per conference, with the butter being paid out over the following six years. The pay structure is different in the NCAA Women’s Tournament.
Tonight, on St Patrick’s Day (Tuesday, March 17) and on Wednesday (March 18), the hardwood madness will be tipping off with two First Four (Play-in) games from the University of Dayton and UD Arena in Dayton Ohio at 6:30 EDT (3:30 PDT) and around 9 EDT (6 PDT).
For the Women, the First Four tips off tomorrow (March 18) and continues Thursday (March 19) with four games to determine the final bracket—just like the Men do. And just like the Men, the #16 are like little lambs being led to the slaughter. In a Round 1 game in the 2025 NCAA DI Women’s Big Dance, R1 scores were (UCLA) 84-46, (USC) 72-25, (SC) 108-48, and (TEX) 105-61.
Last year, the First Four games of the 2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament were played in Birmingham, Alabama (3 games) and Los Angeles (1 game). The First Round of the 2026 Women’s Tournament is March 20-21 and the last day of Winter and first day of Spring.
Defending champions UConn (34-0) haven’t lost a basketball game since Joe Biden was US president and the Huskies are the prohibitive favorites to repeat this time around with Kalshi traders currently giving Connecticut a 67% chance of bringing the bacon back to Storrs.
Prediction Markets Catching Heat For War Markets
Big prediction market dogs Kalshi and Polymarket were under a lot of scrutiny after rumors of insider trading tied to their joint Israel-US attacks on Iran three weekends ago which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Analysts on the blockchain flagged some suspicious trading behavior in some new accounts on Polymarket which has over $530 million in volume on the contracts. Kalshi had more than $50 million, but had a unique carveout paying on contracts at the last traded price before his death.
Contracts tied to wars, assassinations, terrorism and other unseemly human behaviors are generally seen as prohibited in prediction markets and Kalshi claims it doesn’t offer trading markets that are settled on death, but even with the non-binary payout, the ethics of even offering this must be questioned.
In publishing this bi-weekly endeavor, The Prediction Report, we try to be as conscious as possible of that perceived moral redline and not talk about trading markets involving ongoing wars or some of the edgier things like the Epstein Files that simply seem like uncomfortable subject matter.
Bringing a dedicated top story each issue along with fresh prediction market news, Culture, Tech, Entertainment, Politics, Science, Mentions, and Company news markets, as well as the dedicated six stories per issue on Sports—the top traded category in PMs—is our Rx.
Delcy Rodríguez Looks Like She Will Last For 2026
Polymarket is serving up a good market in its Politics category with the ‘(Who Will be the) Venezuela Leader at the End of 2026?’ market and current incumbent and Nicolás Maduro plug-in Delcy Rodríguez is leading in trading with a 60% of becoming the country’s 55th President.
After Maduro was removed from power in Venezuela by the US in February, former diplomat Rodríguez was sworn in two days later and US President Trump reportedly likes her. Well, at least for now, right?
The second choice is a familiar name, Maria Corina Machado (14%), winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize and a soul wise enough to present it to Trump in Washington, DC after the US strikes on Venezuela and capture of Maduro. Always best to avoid temper tantrums dealing with babies.
Machado is a member of the Vente Venezuela opposition party in the South American nation and was a member of the national assembly in Venezuela from 2011 to 2014. In 2024, she was barred from running for president for holding office for 15 years on administrative and fiscal violations.
The people of Venezuela may like Machado, but despite Machado giving Trump the Nobel Peace Prize, he still likes Rodríguez because she also likes him and he thinks he made her president. The trader’s third choice? Nicolás Maduro (11.8%). You gotta love PMs. They do have a sense of humor.
Even if Machado can gain steam, the Trump machine will be intent on stomping it out as deep in his black heart he is still made she won the Nobel Prize and not him. Never underestimate the sheer pettiness. The White House will want Rodríguez to stay like a puppet and that’s what traders see.
➤Trading Thoughts: This market is extremely liquid ($72.8 million on March 8) and who knows what happens with Maduro and his wife, but with the calendar now in March and so much else going on, Rodríguez should still be in Palacio de Miraflores. Trading Picks: Delcy Rodríguez, Yes 60¢
New Zealand Declares PMs as Gambling, Bans Them
Following a similar ruling in Australia, prediction markets have now been banned in New Zealand, deeming the exchanges as a form of gambling with Kalshi, Polymarket and others as unauthorized operators according to New Zealand Regulators and the Department of Internal Affairs in the Oceania island nation.
Vicki Scott, Department of Internal Affairs Gambling Director, told Newsroom “Since they (prediction markets) aren’t authorized operators, they are prohibited from offering their gambling products to people in this country.”
“To the extent these platforms are taking bets from New Zealand customers, they are breaching the law here and can expect to hear from us.” Still, until geoblocking doesn’t happen in NZ, so unless the prediction markets choose to block themselves, the platforms are still usable.
All gambling in New Zealand is controlled by the country’s Department of Internal Affairs.
Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Nominees Trading Begins
The 17 nominees for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame were released and it’s another year loaded with talent with Sade, The Black Crowes, Phil Collins, Mariah Carey, Cher, Oasis, heavy metal icons Iron Maiden, Wu-Tang Clan, Lauryn Hill, and Jeff Buckley among the candidates.
Australian rockers and first-time nominees INXS, Joy Division/New Order (as one entry), Billy Idol, Colombiana legend and beauty Shakira, Luther Vandross, P!nk, and country star Melissa Etheridge are also on the final ballot to make the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame located in Cleveland, Ohio.
Last year, we saw Bad Company, Chubby Checker, Joe Cocker, Cyndi Lauper, Outkast, The White Stripes, and Soundgarden make the musical cut with Salt-N-Pepa, Warren Zevon, Thom Bell, Nicky Hopkins, Carol Kaye, and Lenny Waronker also inducted into the RRHOF. Music matters.
At Kalshi, they have all the candidates up for trading but there is no liquidity just yet ($3,003 on March 18) with the noms just released. The inductees for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame will be revealed in April with the induction ceremony set for.
Fans can cast votes for their favorites for the 2026 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame by clicking this link and clicking their heels. The voting closes on April 3, 2026 and fans can vote up to 7 times a day for the 17 worthy candidates.
➤Trading Thoughts: My friend Wes Reynolds (VSIN) gave a great take on the genres and RRHOF expectations yearly, and it’s hard to argue with his sentiments. Wes said one woman and one Hip Hop group usually make the cut and that was true in 2025 when Cyndi Lauper and Outkast got in.
Trading Picks: Lauryn Hill, Yes, Shakira, Yes, Wu Tang Clan, Yes, Oasis, Yes, Iron Maiden Yes, INXS, No Warren Zevon, No, Bill Idol, No, P!nk, No, The Black Crowes, No
Will SK Girl Group NewJeans Make Comeback by July?
In the non-real money trees playground that is Myriad Markets, traders can have fun in the ‘Will NewJeans Make a Comeback by July?’ market where ‘No’ was sitting at 65% with ‘Yes’ at 35% in the Entertainment category at the incentive-based decentralized prediction market platform.
So who or what is NewJeans? Wake up old man. It is a South Korean girl group in the KPop genre formed by ADOR (a subsidiary of HYBE) originally made up of five members, Danielle—no longer officially part of NewJeans—Haerin, Hanni, Hyiem, and Minji and were active from 2002 to 2025.
Whether or not NewJeans comes back by July is a good question, and something is brewing with reports of members seen in London. If all five reunite, just four, or three get together, this will grade as a ‘Yes,’ but the biggest question is when and not who. That will be up to big bosses HYBE.
NewJeans has 16 songs with more than 100 million streams on Spotify with the group’s #1 hit, “OMG” approachhing 1 billion streams (918,977,065 on March 15, 2026) on the popular service.
National League Rookie of the Year Winner Preview
The 2026 Major League Baseball (MLB) season begins in just a week from now with a special Opening Night offering on Wednesday, March 25 (Yankees at Giants, Netflix, 8:05 EDT/5:05 PDT) followed by Opening Day on Thursday, March 26 with a full schedule of games from the diamond.
With a new MLB season comes a new crop of Rookies, and the race for the 2026 National League (NL) Rookie of the Year will be a close one if early prediction market trading is any indication. At Robinhood, 19-year-old Pirates CF Konnor Griffin (28¢) leads the pack heading into Opening Day.
Following Griffin were Cardinals SS JJ Wetherholt (20¢), Giants 1B Bryce Eldridge (12¢), Mets P Nolan McLean (11¢), Reds INF Sal Stewart (11¢), Pirates RP Bubba Chandler (7¢), Mets OF Carson Benge (5¢), Rockies OF Charlie Condon (4¢), and Phillies OF Justin Crawford (4¢) .
➤Trading Thoughts: Braves Drake Baldwin was the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year, the first time a backstop from the Senior Circuit was back in 2010 when Buster Posey won it in a Californication for the San Francisco Giants.
Justin Crawford (6-2, 188) is the son of former MLB star Carl Crawford and has been average so far for the Phillies in Spring Training after hitting .324 for Lehigh Valley in AAA last season with 7 HR and 47 RBI. Philadelphia should be in the NL race again and Crawford may be starting in CF.
Versatile Reds talent Sal Stewart (12¢)—he can play 1B, 2B, or 3B—hit .255 with 5 HR and 8 HR in 2025 after being called up, but the 6-1, 224-pound right-handed hitter and Miami native will start next to star SS Elly De La Cruz on the right side of the Redlegs INF this approaching season.
In Spring Training, Stewart was hitting .316 with 2 HR and 5 RBI, and with his ability to play three positions in the Cincinnati INF and provide power, backing him now seems like a wise thing to do before the new MLB season gets underway. Trading Pick: Sal Stewart, Yes 11 ¢
American League Rookie of the Year Winner Preview
Unlike the race in the NL, the battle for the 2026 American League (AL) Rookie of the Year award is a much tighter one in the prediction markets with Tigers SS Kevin McGonigle (29¢), Royals C Carter Jensen (26¢), Blue Jays P Trey Yesavage (20¢), and Guardians 2B Travis Bazzana (18¢).
Following were O’s C Samuel Basallo (16¢), White Sox 3B-DH Munetaka Murakami (12¢), Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto (8¢), Guardians RF Chase DeLauter (5¢), Red Sox SP Connelly Early (5¢), Astros P Tatsuya Imai (5¢), White Sox OF Braden Montgomery (2¢), and M’s SS Colt Emerson (1¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: And unlike the NL race, the 2026 AL ROY race is more wide open with a number of young guys able to plug right in at positions with teams in the Junior Circuit. Japanese imports Okamoto, Murakami, and Imai should all impress in their debuts with MLB teams.
McGonigle is a deserving favorite in the AL and the Tigers should win the AL Central, but guys like the Guardians DeLauter and the Carmines Early also look like everyday players or starting P’s. The idea here would be to eat Five Guys at lower prices and see who does well in April and May.
Yesavage should get his chance in the Jays rotation, as should Early in the Red Sox starting unit and 27-year-old right-hander Imai with the Astros. And Okamoto and Murakami may start at the hot corner for two AL Central teams.
This race is too tough to pick just one and getting rookie cards of this troika is suggested. The kids are alright. Trading Picks: Trey Yesavage (20¢), Munetaka Murakami (12¢), Kazuma Okamoto (8¢)
Chelsea Hosting Champs PSG in UCL Leg 2 on Tuesday
On Tuesday, the 2025-26 UCL resumes play with the Round of 16 with EPL side Chelsea (5-1-2, 17 GF-10 GA) hosting French Ligue 1 side and defending UCL champions Paris Saint-Germain (4-2-2, 21 GF-11 GA) at Stamford Bridge (GrassMaster by Tarkett Sports) in London, England in Leg 2 (Paramount+, 4 EDT/3 CDT/1 PDT).
In Leg 1 at Parc de Princes Paris, France on March 10, the PSG rolled 5-2 as the hosts scored 3 goals in the final 20 minutes to head to West London in command of this series. Kvich Kvaratskhelia scored twice for holders PSG which never trailed in the match.
At Kalshi, traders are backing hosts Chelsea (46%) in Leg 2 in West London with Paris Saint-Germain at 34% and a Draw at 22% in trading at the popular prediction market.
➤Trading Thoughts: With a healthy Cole Palmer back, João Pedro and Chelsea have a much more fluid attack and trade goals with any club in Europe if newcomers like Pedro Neto, Estêvão Willian, and Alejandro Garnacho can play up to their expected potential at Stamford Bridge.
With Bradley Barcola, Vitinha, and the much sought-after Kvich Kvaratskhelia, PSG has the firepower to hang with the Blues. Looking at the 5 last H2H meetings, we see PSG was 2-2-1 heading into Leg 1 last week, outscoring CFC, 10-8, although the Blues scored in every fixture.
Those 5 games averaged a robust 3.0 GPG, so looking at both the Over 2.5 Goals scored and Both Teams To Score markets—and the ‘Yes’s’—would be the logical trading approach, especially with so much at stake. The winner plays the winner of the Galatasaray-Liverpool series. Trading Picks: Over 3.5 Goals Scored, Yes 46¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes
MCFC Hosting Real Madrid in UCL Leg 2 on Tuesday
The prestigious 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Round tourney features a classic matchup on Tuesday when EPL side Manchester City (5-1-2, 15 GF-9 GA) hosts Spanish La Liga heavyweights Real Madrid (5-0-2, (21 GF-12 GA) at the Etihad Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in Manchester, England in Leg 2 (Paramount+, 4 EDT/3 CDT/1 PDT).
At Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain in Leg 1 March 11, Los Blancos won 3-0 as Federico Valverde had a hat trick at home and made a trip to the Round of 8 a strong possibility.
Kalshi UCL traders are backing hosts noisy neighbors Manchester City (64%) with Vini Jr and Real Madrid trading at just 19% and a Draw at 18% in Leg 2 in Sky Blue Mancunia. Why? The aggregate scoreline (RM 3 MCFC 0) heading in is why.
➤Trading Thoughts: Both clubs are down a bit from previous incarnations, but still, the winner of the Atalanta-Bayern Munich Round of 16 series won’t be happy drawing either opponent in a Round of 8 (Quarterfinals) matchup more suited for the Semifinals or Finals of the UCL tourney.\
Looking at the H2H records between these two before Leg, the Madridistas are 2-2-1 vs the Citizens (11 GF-9 GA) in high-scoring affairs and all in recent (2024-2025) UEFA Champions League play. These two giants just always seem to run into each other, somehow, someway.
Manchester City (0-1-1) is winless at Home the last 2 vs Real Madrid, who played its way into this round via the KO Phase Playoffs, ousting Benfica (3-1 aggregate). The Both Teams To Score prop is 5-1 the last 6 series meetings and 10-2 in the last 12.Trading Pick: Over 2.5 Goals Scored, Yes 62¢
LFC Welcomes Galatasaray in UCL Leg 2 on Wednesday
On Wednesday, the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 continues to pare down when EPL side Liverpool (6-0-2, 20 GF-8 GA) hosts Turkish Süper Lig 1 side Galatasaray (3-1-4, 9 GF-11 GA) at Anfield (GrassMaster) in Liverpool, England in Leg 2 (Paramount+, 4 EDT/3 CDT/1 PDT).
In Leg 1 at Rams Park in Istanbul, Turkey on March 10, host Galatasaray won 1-0, setting up this massive Leg 2 where Mo Salah and the Reds will need to score first to keep the nerves at bay.
Soccer traders at Kalshi are strongly behind Liverpool (77%) in Leg 2 at Merseyside with Galatasaray (10%) and a Draw (16%) taking in less contracts combined in the Reds in early trading at the popular prediction market.
➤Trading Thoughts: Since starting 2026 with 4 Draws in 5 results in all competitions, Liverpool went 8-0-3 in its next 11 to right the ship and get back into some form in EPL, FA Cup, and UCL play. This club is playing much better, but is still not as strong and confident as in past years.
Looking at the H2H records between these two historic European clubs before Leg 1 last week, we see the Reds are just 1-2-2 vs Gala, winning the last UCL meeting at Anfield (3-2) back in 2006. Liverpool had been able to only score 6 goals in those 5 matches to the Yellow-Reds’ 7.
Liverpool has never lost to GSK at Home (1-1-0, 3 GF-2 GA) in a non-friendly competition, and with the aggregate score what it is heading in here and a spot in the Quarterfinals (Round of 8) at stake, expect a low-scoring, close affair at The Kop. Trading Pick: Over 3.5 goals scored, No 50¢
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Barça Hosting Newcastle in Big UCL Leg 2 on Wednesday
The 2025-26 UCL League Phase will see La Liga’s Barcelona (5-1-2, +8 GD) playing host to the EPL’s Newcastle United (4-4-2, +10 GD) at Spotify Camp Nou (GrassMaster Hybrid Grass) in Barcelona, Spain in Leg 2 of their R16 series on Wednesday (Paramount+, 1:45 EDT/10:45 PDT).
In Leg 1 at St James’ Park in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England on March 10, the two sides played to a 1-1 draw as the Toon’s Harvey Barnes notched what looked like the game-winner at the 87-minute mark, but Lamine Yamal leveled it for FCB, 1-1, with a PK score at the 90+6’ mark of the 2nd Half.
At Kalshi, Soccer traders are backing Lamine Yamil, Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres and Barcelona (62%) over Newcastle United (18%) with a Draw (20%) getting more ‘Yes’ contracts than the Magpies.
➤Trading Thoughts: The last time these two clubs met on September 18, 2025 in UCL play at the Geordie Shore, Barcelona won 2-1 as Marcus Rashford had a brace (58’, 67’) with Anthony Gordon scored a late goal for the hosts (90’) who lost badly in the Time of Possession (36% to 64%).
If the Blaugrana score first and relatively early on here on their home soil, this series is over. Lifetime, Barcelona have never lost to NUFC (3-0-0, 7 GF -2 GA) and have never trailed to the Magpies in over 270 minutes of UEFA Champions League play. Trading Pick: Barcelona, Yes 62¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the race to be #3 behind Polymarket and Kalshi, Predict.Fun’s acquisition of OxProbable, Will the SAVE America Act pass?, Which company has the best AI model?, Men’s Singles French Open futures, Who will be the Browns starting QB?, the FIFA World Cup Golden Boot and Coppa Italia winners, and the NASCAR Goodyear 400 at Darlington. Thank you for subscribing and Happy St Patrick’s Day.
