The 2026 Winter Olympics (Milano Cortina 2026) will open up this Friday, February 6 at historic San Siro Olympic Stadium in Milan, Italy (NBC, 2 EST/1 CST/12 MST/11 PST) with the Parade of Nations ceremony and the lighting of the Olympic cauldron.
The Opening Ceremony will be produced by Banijay Live and will feature performances from artists like Andrea Bocelli, Laura Pausini, and Mariah Carey. The Opening Ceremony theme is “Armonia” (Harmony) comes from the ancient Greek word meaning “bringing together.”
The XXV Winter Games will run until February 22 with the Closing Ceremony being held at Verona Arena in Verona, Italy. The motto of the Olympics is “IT’s Your Vibe”. The 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy will see 116 events contested in 8 sports (16 disciplines).
The Olympics will be held in two cities, Milan (ice events) and in clusters around Cortina. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have some Olympic Games markets, and expert their menus to grow once the torch finally makes it to San Siro.
You can watch the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics on the NBCUniversal family of networks (Peacock, NBC, USA Network, CNBC). The 2030 Winter Olympics will be held in the French Alps.
2026 Winter Olympics: Most Medal Points Preview
In the Olympics, participating nations earn points for medals in the individual and team events, with a Gold medal worth 3 points, a Silver medal worth 2 points, and a Bronze medal earning the country 1 point on the Most Medal Points standings.
In the 2022 Winter Games in Beijing, China, Norway was the nation with the most points (37) who won 16 Golds, 6 Silvers, and 13 Bronzes, 10 points ahead of second-place finishers Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) who finished with 5 Golds, 12 Silvers, and 15 Bronzes,
Germany (27) had 12 Golds, 10 Silvers, and 5 Bronzes four years ago for the third-best points total while the United States (US) was third with 25 points (9/9/7) followed by Sweden (18), Austria (18), Switzerland (15), XXIV Winter Games host nation China (15), and France (14).
Polymarket
At Polymarket four days before the games officially begin, Norway are again the favorites to end up with the highest number of medal points (69%) followed by the US (16%), Germany (9%), Canada (9%), host Italy (7%), Switzerland (5%), Austria (2%), France (2%), and Netherlands (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Like Olivia Dean in the Grammy’s Best New Artist market we talked about last week in TPR, backing a favorite before the (‘Yes’) price keeps rising seems the best approach here with the potential to cash early or let it ride. With no ROC this time, Norway will roll again.
The ROC had the most Silvers and Bronze medals in China, so without the Russians in the nation that gave us pizza, the Norwegians will probably take home ever more medals to Scandinavia and a 10-point-plus win seems about right to me in my bobsled. Trading Pick: Norway, Yes 75¢
Winter Olympics: 2nd Most Gold Medals Market Preview
In the 2022 Winter Games in Beijing, Germany was the nation with the 2nd-Most Gold Medals (12), behind Norway (16) with host the nation China and the US ending with 9, Sweden and the Netherlands with 8, Austria and Switzerland with 7 each, and ROC and France with 5 Golds.
Looking back eight years to the Gold medal counts in the 2018 Winter Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, Canada actually had the second-best total with 11 as Germany and Norway tied with 14 Golds. The US had 9 those Games, Netherlands 8, and Sweden 7.
At Polymarket in the 2nd Most Gold medals market for these 2026 Winter Games, the United States (32%) is the traders favorites with Germany (26%), Norway (26%), Canada (10%), hosts Italy (4%), France (3%), Sweden (1%), Netherlands (1%), Austria (1%), and China (1%) all following.
➤Trading Thoughts: This may be a three-country race between Germany, the United States, and Canada and it seems traders have it right in this battle for the second most Gold medals in Italy this month. O Canada, we stand on guard for thee... Trading Pick: Canada, Yes 10¢
Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Silver Medal Winner Preview
In the Men’s Hockey tournament in the Olympics, Canada is the presumed favorite and with skaters like Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, and Nathan MacKinnon, Wayne Gretzky has another loaded roster in the Great White North and should make it to the Gold Medal game in Italy.
But who will win the Silver Medal? Maybe Canada loses in that Gold medal game and has to settle for a Silver. Traders at Polymarket have Canada at 39% followed by Jack Eichel and the United States (30%), Sweden (13%), Czech Republic (7%), Finland (7%), and Switzerland (7%).
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts:In the last Winter Olympics in China, we saw Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho and Finland win its first ever Gold Medal as the nation went undefeated and defeated the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC)—the Silver medal winners—in the Final.
This should be a battle between the defending Gold-holders Finland, Sweden, favorites Canada, the US, and maybe Switzerland. I think Finland gets to the Gold Medal game again this time around but loses to Team Canada. Trading Pick: Finland, Yes 8¢
Early Trading on Survivor 50 Reveals Inside Information?
The hit reality TV show Survivor celebrates 50 seasons in 2026, and we will see Survivor 50 later this month along with “10 iconic Survivor episodes” which will be airing in CBS’s “Road to 50” leading up to that 50th season premiere on February 25 (CBS, 8 EST/7 CST/8 PST). Got coconut milk?
The cast is hardly loaded with All-Stars worthy of a 50th season of the Jeff Probst-hosted show although players like Cyrie, Stephenie, Coach, Ozzy, Colby, Savannah, Mike, and Jenna are playing on the show which has already been taped, and win air the final live like most Survivor seasons.
Looking at the Survivor 50 Winner market at Polymarket, it seems someone knows who made it to finale night with Aubry Bracco (51%) way out ahead of the other castaways in the market with just $16,386 in volume a month before the show was even set to premiere and we’ve seen the buffs.
Polymarket
Jonathan Young (7%), Joe Hunter (6%), Cirie Fields (6%), Stephenie LaGrossa (5%), Emily Flippen (4%), Rizo Velovic (4%) Charlie Davis (3%), Kyle Fraser (3%), Colby Donaldson (3%), Dee Vallardes (3%), Savannah Louie (2%). And Quintavius Burdette (2%) followed.
➤Trading Thoughts: Until we understand why Aubry is so far ahead or see the opener, I am not willing to throw any names out. As a huge Survivor fan since Season 1, the thrill of wondering who win gets stung seeing a big chalk a month before the show’s 3-hour premiere.Trading Pick: None
MLS Teams up with Polymarket
On Monday, January 26, Major League Soccer (MLS), through its marketing arm Soccer United Marketing (SUM), unveiled a multiyear partnership with Polymarket adding to the growing number of professional sports leagues and teams to team up with prediction markets.
In October, the National Hockey League (NHL) became the first major North American pro sports league to announce a deal with PMs when it teamed up with Polymarket while the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) joined forces with Shayne Coplan’s exchange in November.
MLS
Under the new agreement, MLS and Polymarket will work together to enhance the fan’s experience watching the league which features living soccer legend Lionel Messi and the new MLS champion Inter Miami CF, and increase second-screen engagement in the Digital Age.
Polymarket, whose screen bug could recently be seen at the Golden Globes awards, will now serve as the PM of the MLS, the MLS All-Star Game, MLS Cup, and League Cup competitions.
Pro Football Championship MVP Market at Polymarket
The biggest sporting event of the year, Super Bowl XL airs this weekend with the Seattle Seahawks facing the New England Patriots at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California in the most unlikely of Pro Football Championship matchups on Sunday (NBC, Peacock, 6 EST/5 CST/4 MST/3 PST).
The biggest individual award given at Super Bowls is the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, usually won by Quarterbacks (QB). But this year’s game may see another position player snag the Super Bowl MVP with Drake Maye leading New England and Sam Darnold Seattle’s QB.
At Polymarket, traders are banking on the starting QBs Darnold (44%) and Maye (27%), with other key skill position players like Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (14%) getting some traction along with teammate and talented RB Kenneth Walker III (9%). Expect these two to shine.
Polymarket
Longshots at 1%-2% included Rashid Shaheed, Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Emmanwori, Ernest Jones, and Kayshon Boutte. The last time a non-QB was SB MVP was in 2022 (WR Cooper Kupp, LAR) while the last defensive player to win the award was LB Von Miller of the Broncos.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a good market to have two or three players in, not only to maximize the possibility of having the winner, but for entertainment purpose because this is the Super Bowl afterall. Buy the ticket, enjoy the ride Bubba.
For around 25¢, you can get Seahawks star WR JSN, electric RB Walker III, and a past Super Bowl MVP and great possession and red zone veteran receiver in Kupp. This could be a low-scoring game where neither QB has great stats. Trading Picks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Yes, 15¢, Kenneth Walker III, Yes, 8.8¢, Cooper Kupp, Yes 0.8¢,
NFL AP Offensive Player of the Year Award at Kalshi
Even if the Seahawks didn’t make it to Super Bowl LX this Sunday, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be one of the two favorites to win the AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year, usually given to another skill position player with a QB usually winning the prestigious NFL MVP award annually.
Last year, it was Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley who won the NFL Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for over 2,000 yards as the NFL champion Eagles went on to beat Patrick Mahomes and the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, 40-22.
Kalshi traders like Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (87%) over LA Rams WR Puka Nacua (9%) and San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (5%), so this is a two-man market.
Seahawks
➤Trading Thoughts: This one may be too late to get in on, but with the Ohio State product Smith-Njigba ending with 1,793 receiving yards—the 8th most in a season in NFL history—119 receptions, 10 TDs, and a 15.1 ypc average, this talented SB participant is the man in the mirror.
Nijgba-Smith has already won this award from the Pro Football Writers Association (PFWA). The winner will be announced on Thursday, February 6 at the NFL Honors Ceremony (NBC, NFL Network, NFL+, Peacock, 9 EST/8 CST/5 PST). Trading Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Yes 87¢
MUFC vs Tottenham in Premier League on Saturday
Manchester United (11-8-5) welcome Richarlison and Tottenham Hotspur (7-8-9) to Old Trafford (Desso Grassmaster) in Greater Manchester, England for an English Premier League match more important to the 4th-place Red Devils on Saturday (USA Network, 7:30 am EST/4:30 am PST).
When these two met in EPL play earlier this season at Tottenham Hotspur stadium in London on November 8, the two clubs played to a 2-2 draw as Richarlison scored for Spurs at 90’+1’ for the apparent game-winner only to see Matthijs de Light score at 90’+6’ for Manchester United.
At Polymarket, hosts Manchester United FC (61%) is the traders’ choice over Tottenham Hotspur (19%) with a Draw trading at 22% with Over 2.5 goals scored trading at 62% (Yes).
Premier League
➤Trading Thoughts: The Theatre of Dreams is a much happier place now that Michael Carrick has taken over on the bench for MUFC. In the last 6 series meetings, Tottenham is an unbeaten 3-3-0, outscoring Manchester United 11-6 in the process, registering 3 clean sheets, and going an impressive unbeaten over the last two meetings at Old Trafford (1-1-0, 5 GF-2 GA).
But those were stronger Spurs squads and weaker Red Devils ones. MUFC has picked up some steam in 2026 in PL play, going 2-2-0 and knocking off noisy neighbors Manchester City in Sky Blue Mancunia (2-0) and league leaders Arsenal in North London (3-2). Trading Pick: MUFC 61¢
Liverpool Hosts Manchester City in EPL on Sunday
EPL heavyweights Liverpool (11-6-7) and Manchester City (14-5-5) meet at Anfield (Grassmaster) in Liverpool, England on Sunday in a big fixture for both clubs fighting to finish in the top five in the league in order to earn UEFA Champions League qualification next season.
At Polymarket, Soccer traders are investing in host Liverpool (39%) over Manchester City (35%) in the game winner market with Liverpool priced at 40¢, Manchester City at 36¢, and a Draw at 26¢ in the Moneyline market with the Total at 2.5 goals, Over 63¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two met earlier this season at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester back on November 9, Phil Foden and the Citizens rolled to a 3-0 victory over Mo Salah, Cody Gakpo, and the Reds as big man Erling Haaland (20 goals) scored the opener for MCFC.
Liverpool won both meetings last season by 2-0 scores and the last 3 in this series have been clean sheets. The Sky Blues aren’t playing well in 2026, as losses to rivals United in EPL play and Bodo Glint in UCL revealed. Both clubs are still schizo now.Trading Pick: Both Teams To Score, Yes 66¢
Who Will Advertise at the Super Bowl on Sunday?
Kalshi has an interesting prediction market for Super Bowl Sunday in its ‘Which Brands Will Advertise in the Big Game 2026 on Sunday.’ But with many companies already putting it out in the public domain they are speeding the big bucks for Super Bowl airtime, many are beyond buying.
Here was the Super Bowl Advertisers market at Kalshi on Monday, February 2 and the chances:
Who Will Score a TD in SB LX Props Market at Kalshi
