The first of the Men’s four majors on the Professional Golfer’s Association (PGA) tour, the 2026 Masters Tournament tees off this week on Thursday, April 9 at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia and runs through Sunday, weather permitting (ESPN, 3 EDT/ 2CDT/13 PDT).
Last year, it was Rory McIlroy who won this tournament in dramatic fashion, finally getting that coveted Green Jacket to pull off the career Grand Slam. American star Scottie Scheffler won the tournament in 2024 after also winning in 2022 with Jon Rahm getting the Green Jacket in 2023.
One guy who won’t be playing in The Masters this year is living legend Tiger Woods, winner at Augusta five times (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2019) and the second-most Green Jackets behind Jack Nicklaus (5). Woods was involved in a car accident on Friday, March 27 and charged with a DUI
➤Where to Watch and Listen: Round 1 (Thursday) and Round 2 (Friday) will air on CBS, Prime Video (1-3 EDT), and ESPN (3-7:30 EDT). Round 3 (Saturday) and Round 4 (Sunday) will air on CBS (2-7 EDT) and stream on the network’s streaming service Paramount+ (12-2 EDT).
The Golf Channel will also have additional “Live From The Masters” coverage while The Masters.com/App will air featured groups, Amen Corner and holes 4, 5, 6 15, and 16. ESPN Deportes will air the tourney in Spanish and SiriusXM will have all four rounds on satellite radio,
2026 Masters Tournament Winner Odds at Kalshi
Kalshi traders have usual suspect Scottie Scheffler (14%) as the favorite to win this 90th edition of The Masters two days out with Bryson DeChambeau (8%)—who signed a deal with Kalshi we talked about in the January 20, 2026 edition of The Prediction Market—Rory McIlroy (7%) and Jon Rahm (7%) seeing the most ‘Yes’ contracts.
After them, it’s Xander Schauffele (6%), Ludvig Åberg (5%), Cameron Young (4%), Tommy Fleetwood (4%), Matt Fitzpatrick (4%), Brooks Koepka (3%)—back in the PGA after a stint in LIV Golf—Collin Morikawa (3%), Hideki Matsuyama (3%), Justin Rose (3%), and Patrick Reed (3%).
On April 5, the trading volume on the 2026 Masters Winner was already at $41,353,701 (and counting). For some historical non-perspective, the handle in the state of Nevada for the Super Bowl in 1991 was $41,080,409. We like to play?
➤Trading Thoughts: Scheffler doesn’t seem as dominating as he was last PGA season, and expecting him to suddenly wake up and win The Masters seems like wishful thinking. McIlroy won last year and won’t win again while Morikawa hurt his back last month and is too much of a gamble unless you are buying the ‘No’ (94¢).
Looking at some longshots is the advice here. Xander Schauffele (T4, 3, T24, T7, T19) was in the hunt in both THE PLAYERS Championship and the Valspar Championship while Jacob Bridgeman (T14, T5, T18, 1, T8) won The Genesis Invitational and the Clemson product (2¢) has shot 15 rounds of 20 firing <70 with 71, 72 (3x), and 75 (Arnold Palmer Invitational) his highest rounds.
Rising PGA star Min Woo Lee (2c) is also worth watching with the Australian (T4, T32, T6, T12, T2) off to a great start and ranked #31 in the official World Golf Rankings by the PGA heading into last week’s event. Trading Picks: Xander Schauffele, Yes 6¢, Jacob Bridgeman, Yes 2¢, Min Woo Lee, Yes 2¢, Scottie Scheffler, No 86¢
When Will the DHS Be Funded Again?
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has become a casualty of the longest partial government shutdown in US history with the stalemate between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress pushing the funding lapse to 51 days as of April 5, 2026.
The shutdown has caused serious air travel delays with agencies like the TSA and Border Protection being forced to work without pay for more than seven weeks. An offer from the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, to pay the salaries of the TSA was turned down by the White House.
At Kalshi in the ‘When Will DHS be Funded Again?” market, traders are leaning to Before May 1, 2026 (64%), with earlier dates Before April 15, 2026 trading at just 15% with a week later and Before April 22, 2026 trading at 50%.
➤Trading Thoughts: When this Congress will finally fund DHS is a mystery, with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson a staunch Trump sycophant only willing to pass agendas of the White House. With Johnson in this role, the US is now as stymied as helpless ships are in the Strait of Hormuz. Trading Pick: Before April 22, Yes 50¢
Will US President Donald Trump Visit China by....?
US President Trump was scheduled to travel to China earlier this year (March 31-April 2), but because of the US military actions in Iran, his meeting with President Xi Jinping, was postponed for May 14-15. Can we trust this date? And what if something else happens and delays his trip again?
Trade tensions between the two countries because of tariffs is the expected main focus of the summit in Beijing and don’t expect Trump to talk about Taiwan or Russia too much. The trip would be Trump’s first to China in eight years.
Traders at Polymarket are buying ‘Yes’ for a (by...) May 31 (67%) visit from Trump with June 30 at 77% with April 30 (1%) looking like a strong ‘No’ after that announcement. The ‘No’ for a visit before October 31, 2025 was already resolved.
Can Bad Bunny Repeat as the Top Spotify Artist in 2026?
The race to be the Top Spotify Artist in 2026 is underway and it’s the usual suspects and past winners who litter the favorites on prediction markets. At Polymarket, in the Top Spotify Artist 2026 market, it’s last year’s winner Bad Bunny (70%), who is off to a big lead according to traders.
Following the Puerto Rican singer who performed at the halftime of Super Bowl LIX in February this liquid market ($1,195,852 volume on April 4) were Taylor Swift (8%)—the winner in both 2023 and 2024— Drake (5%), Bruno Mars (3.5%), The Weeknd (1%), Beyoncé (1%), Sabrina Carpenter (1%), and Kendrick Lamar (1%).
Bad Bunny had 19.8 million streams last year, and traders in this popular market think he may go back-to-back like Swift did. Swift was #2 last year, followed by The Weeknd, Drake, and Billie Eilish. In 2023, it was Swift (#1), The Weekend (#2), Bad Bunny (#3), Drake (#4), and Billie Eilish (#5) and the same five ina different order.
➤Trading Thoughts: After wiping his social media clean, speculation Bad Bunny will be releasing a new album in 2026 ran rampant after the Super Bowl, possibly the reason the big lead with the single DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS adding to the 32-year-old’s Spotify tally every second of every day. Trading Pick: Bad Bunny, Yes 70¢, Drake, No 96.8¢, Taylor Swift, No 93¢
YouTube—DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Which Three Clubs Will Get Relegated From the EPL?
At Predict.Fun, traders are dabbling in the ‘Which Clubs Will Get Relegated’? market from the 2025-26 English Premier League where three poor clubs are sent packing down a tier. Three clubs from the EFL are promoted each year, the top two finishers and the 3rd-6th place Playoff winner.
This is like a tiger being made a leopard. You may trade stripes for spots, but you’re also trading a lucrative position in one of the top pro sports leagues on Earth and an annual chance to qualify for the prestigious UEFA Champions League tourney for a sad EFL Championship League mediocrity.
As of April 4, traders were banking on West Ham United (46%) to be relegated from the English Premier League (EPL), but the liquidity was probably a man in a musty basement in Schenectady, NY with $47.45 on the 18th-place Hammers (7-8-16, 29 points) to get the boot.
The two clubs at the rock bottom of the current EPL standings—19th-place Burney (20 points) and 20th-place Wolverhampton Wanderers (17 points)—have pretty much already been relegated and have no ‘Yes-No’ contracts offered.
This is essentially a four-club race between West Ham, Tottenham Hotspur (33.4%), Nottingham Forest (13%), and Leeds United (13%) as we head down the homestretch of the EPL season. Like all professional European Leagues, the EPL holds no playoffs.
➤Trading Thoughts: Leeds (33 points), Nottingham Forest (32 points), Tottenham (30 points), and West Ham (29 points) were just separated by 4 points with 7 games to go in the 38-match season, so the strength of schedule and fixtures between each other and the site will be huge to see who stays up and who goes bye-bye.
Looking at the Leeds schedule, we see an April 18 match vs Wolves at Home could be a huge 3 points for the Whites while a May 9 derby vs Spurs in North London in Matchweek 36 could hurt. Leeds is at Manchester United on April 13, but maybe the biggest relegation match is on May 24.
Why? Sunday, May 24 is Matchweek 38 and the last day of the EPL season. Leeds is at WH—after playing the Hammers on April 5—in a match that could see 17th and 18th place determined. 17th, good. 18th, nightmare. Spurs probably have enough confidence and form to find a way to stay up.
But Nottingham Forest faces potential weariness from 2025-26 UEFA Europa League play and possible landmines in the merry, merry month of May at Chelsea (May 4), vs Newcastle United (May 9), and at Old Trafford vs Manchester United (May 17). Trading Pick: Leeds, Yes 14.4¢
Real Madrid Hosts Bayern Munich in UEFA CL Tuesday
The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tournament is down to the final eight clubs, and the series of death in the Quarterfinals is the battle between La Liga’s Real Madrid and Bundesliga's Bayern Munich, in a European Clásico which is a cruel product of the draw which will send one European soccer giant home early.
On Tuesday, Bayern Munich (7-0-1, 22 GF-8 GA) will meet Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid (5-0-3, 21 GF-12 GA) at Santiago Bernabéu (Mixto Hybrid Grass) in Madrid, Spain in Leg 1 of their Round of 16 series (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). Leg 2 will be played in Munich on Wednesday, April 15.
Bayern beat Atalanta, 10-2 on aggregate while Vini, Mbappé and RM ousted Manchester City (5-1). UCL traders at Polymarket are backing Harry Kane and Bayern Munich (46%) over host Real Madrid (34%) with a Draw trading at 23% and the Total (goals) at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 45¢, No 56¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: A battle between vet GK’s between the 40-year-old Manuel Neuer and the 33-year-old Thibaut Courtois. Why are traders backing the Germans on Spanish soil? The collective firepower of Kane (10 goals), Luis Díaz (4 goals), Michael Olise (5 assists), Serge Gnabry (4 assists), and Lennart Karl may be why.
With RM knowing a Leg 2 at Allianz next week will be challenging, expect Los Blancos to push the pace early in an effort for that first goal. Despite the great names in net, this is too big of a game and Kane and mighty Bayern—favorites to win the UEFA CL—are too strong not to score at least twice. Trading Pick: Over 2.5 Goals, Yes 68¢
Sporting CP-Arsenal Meet in UEFA CL Leg 1 on Tuesday
Portuguese heavies Sporting CP (5-2-2, 17 GF-11 GA) welcome EPL champions Arsenal (8-0-0, 23 GF-4 GA) to Estádio José Alvalade (Grass) in Lisbon, Portugal in Leg 1 of their Round of 16 series on Tuesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). The 2nd Leg will be played in North London on Wednesday, April 15.
Sporting CP rallied from a 0-3 Leg 1 deficit to eliminate Bodø/Glimt (5-3 aggregate) to get to the Quarterfinals while GK David Raya and Arsenal dominated another opponent, this time Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen (3-1 aggregate) as the Gunners defense continued to dominate.
Soccer traders at Polymarket are behind Viktor Gyökeres, Bukayo Saka, and visitors Arsenal (56%) over host Sporting CP (20%) with a Draw trading at 25% and the Total (goals) at 2.5 (Over, Yes, 50¢, No 51¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Luis Suárez, Francisco Trincão, and Sporting CP will be no pushover and easily the toughest side Arsenal has faced in the UEFA CL. So you need coolin’, baby, I'm not foolin', The Leões have only lost one game in 2026 (Bodø/Glimt Leg 1), going 11-1-3 in 15 matches.
Against Arsenal in the last 5, Sporting CP is a winless 0-3-2 (9 GF-4 GA), scoring just 0, 0, 2, 1, and 1 goal in UEFA EL and CL competitions (2018-2024). The two met two years ago in the UCL League Phase where the Gunners won 5-1 in Lisbon behind 3 First Half Goals vs Sportinguistas.
This is a hard one to handicap with Sporting Lisbon playing so well and at home and Gabriel Martinelli and Arsenal playing better than any other club in this prestigious tournament. Looking for the upset in Leg 1 by Sporting CP at this crazy low price (21¢) is the thought. Trading Pick: Sporting CP, Yes 20¢
Click here to trade on the Sporting CP vs Arsenal UCL Leg 1 at Polymarket
Holders PSG Host Liverpool in Leg 1 on Wednesday
French Ligue 1 titans Paris Saint-Germain (4-2-2, 21 GF-11 GA) welcome to EPL legends Liverpool (6-0-2, 20 GF-8 GA) to Parc de Princes (Desso GrassMaster) in Paris, France in Leg 1 of their Round of 16 series on Wednesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). The 2nd Leg will be played in Liverpool on Tuesday, April 14.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (7 goals), Vitinha (6 goals), and Ousmane Dembélé and PSG ousted overwhelmed Chelsea (8-2 aggregate) while Mo Salah and Liverpool defeated Turkish side Galatasaray SK (4-1) shutting out the Cimbom in Leg 2 in the Round of 32 leg at Anfield.
Polymarket traders are betting on hosts Paris Saint-Germain (57%) over host Liverpool FC (21%) with a Draw trading at 23% and the Total (goals) at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 43¢, No 58¢). The Both Teams To Score prop is priced at 64¢ (‘Yes’).
➤Trading Thoughts: Neither side had to expend much emotional energy in the last round, with the Reds rolling at Merseyside and scoring 4 times while Les Parisens embarrassed Chelsea and seemingly scored at will in the two legs. PSG should roll again here to set the table. Trading Pick: Paris Saint-Germain, Yes 58¢
Barcelona Hosting Atlético in UCL Leg 1 Wednesday
Spanish La Liga icons Barcelona (5-1-2, 21 GF-14 GA) host upstart La Liga rivals Atlético Madrid (5-1-2, 21 GF-14 GA) at Camp Nou (GrassMaster Hybrid Grass) in Barcelona, Spain in Leg 1 of their Quarterfinals series on Wednesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
Leg 2 is at Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid on Tuesday, April 14. And in a freak of scheduling and the draw, Atlético will play Barça three times in 11 days with a 2025-26 LALIGA fixture on tap on April 4 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. All three meetings will be cinematic.
Barcelona ousted EPL side Newcastle United (8-3 aggregate) in the Round of 16 to set up this collision while Atlético Madrid defeated Tottenham Hotspur (8-3 aggregate) as both manhandled their underwhelming Premier League opposition.
Polymarket traders are backing hosts Barcelona (64%) over visitors Atlético Madrid (18%) with a Draw trading at 19% and the Total (goals) at 3.5 (Over, Yes, 48¢, No 54¢). The Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) is priced at 67¢ .
➤Trading Thoughts: The Catalans will be missing a key cog with Rapinha (Hamstring) out for 5 weeks, but with attackers like Robert Lewandowski, Fermín López, Marcus Rashford, and Lamine Yamil, Barcelona will be fine on the attack.
Looking at the last 5 H2H meetings between these two, we see that Barça is 4-0-1 vs Rojiblancos (11 GF-7 GA) and 2-0-0 the last 2 at home, outscoring Atleti 6-1 (2025-2026), including a month ago on March 3. Trading Picks: Barcelona, Yes 64¢, Over 2.5 goals, Yes 70¢
Prime Video Dishing Up NBA Doubleheader on Thursday
The NBA continues to wind down this 2025-26 Regular Season and on Thursday night, there are six games on the hardwood slate, including a televised streaming doubleheader on Prime Video featuring four classic teams from the league’s Eastern and Western conferences.
The first is an Atlantic Division showdown from Madison Square Garden (Prime Video, 7:30 EDT/6:30 CDT/4:30 PDT) between the Knicks (50-28) and their rivals, the Celtics (53-25) who have rallied in the second half to take over the lead from New York with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown leading the C’s charge.
The second is a Pacific Division showdown between LeBron James and the division-leading Lakers (50-27) and Steph Curry and the Warriors (36-41) from the Chase Center in San Francisco (Prime Video, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT) and a game much more important to GS chasing a playoffs spot.
The NBA Regular Season ends on April 12 with the 2026 NBA Play-In Round tipping off on April 14 and the NBA Playoffs kicking into high gear with the final 16 teams on April 18. The 2026 NBA Finals are scheduled for June 3.
➤Trading Thoughts: With the Postseason already guaranteed, don’t expect the Celtics or Knicks to play 100% and risk injury. The game may have significance on who wins the Eastern Conference, but these two will likely be #2 and #3 seeds and not worried about a paper division championship.
Out West, it’s the same story with the 10th-place Dubs destined for a SoFi Play-In Tournament (7th-10th place) and a win here vs Los Angeles still meaningless. At Polymarket, traders give Boston the best chance of these four to win the title (11%) with NY at 4%, LA at 1% after the Luka Dončić injury and GS at <1%. Trading Picks: None
NCAA Hockey Frozen Four Skates This Weekend
The 2026 NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Tournament has pared down to its 2026 Frozen Four with Michigan, Denver, North Dakota, and Wisconsin all vying to become the new champions in College Hockey with two of the four #1-seeded schools surviving the icy March gauntlet.
Michigan beat Minnesota Duluth in the Regional Semifinals (4-3) to get to this point and the Frozen Four at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise (Las Vegas), Nevada from April 9-11 while opponent Denver ousted the fourth #1 seed Western Michigan (5-2) to earn this spot.
JT Hughes and #1 ranked (USCHO Poll) Michigan (29-7-1) and #4 Denver (25-11-3) two will play in the first Semifinal in Sin City this Thursday (April 9) afternoon (ESPN2, 5 EDT/4 CDT/2 PDT).
No. 2-ranked North Dakota (27-9-1) shut out Quinnipiac in the Regional Semifinals (5-0) to make the Frozen Four while #12 Wisconsin (21-12-2) surprised #1-seed Michigan State (4-3) to earn a date with the Fighting Hawks on Thursday night (ESPN2, 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/5:30 PDT).
College Hockey traders at Kalshi in the ‘College Hockey National Champions’ market like North Dakota (33%) by a hair over Michigan (32%) with Denver (30%) and Wisconsin (13%) the Frozen Four longshots. Don’t be blue, you can win too.
➤Trading Thoughts: The 2026 NCAA Championship Game will be between the winner of the Michigan-Denver Semi and the winner of the North Dakota-Wisconsin Semi and will be played on Saturday (ESPN, 8:30 ET/7:30 CT/5:30 PT). Frozen Four Trading Picks: Michigan and North Dakota
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at politicians taking aim at prediction markets, Arizona tribal gaming’s support of the ADG, Polymarket taking down its F-15 crew member rescue market, Kalshi’s Spring in the courts, Polymarket teaming up with LALIGA, Miami CF vs RBNY in MLS, a UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg preview, CFC vs MCFC in the EPL, and the NASCAR Food City 400 race at Bristol. Thanks for reading and subscribing.