All roads led to Indianapolis in this 87th edition of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament this season, and a Big Dance that started with 68 on St Patrick’s Day and the Winter is now down to a sacred Final Four—the champions of the East, South, Midwest, and West regionals.
All surviving teams have won four games in March Madness to get to this point to try to win a fifth game earn a spot in the 2026 Division I Men’s Basketball Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana on Monday, April 6 (TNT, 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/4:30 PDT).
With Florida eliminated by upstart Big Ten Conference school Iowa in the Round of 32, there will be another new champion crowned in Naptown this Spring. There will now be only repeat Big Dance winner in the last 18 times the tournament has been played (UConn 2023 and 2024).
High-seeds, favorites and Power 5 schools dominated again and UNLV (Big West) is still the last mid-major to win the title when Larry Johnson and the Runnin’ Rebels won it back in 1990 when Taylor Swift wasn’t even a year old and Michael Jordan was in his prime with the Chicago Bulls.
College basketball icons Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and UCLA all made the Big Dance but none of them made the Sweet 16, the first time that has happened since 1954, before Taylor Swift’s mom was even born and the second year Chevrolet made a little car called the Corvette.
Queens (A-Sun) and California Baptist (WAC) made the NCAAB Tournament for the first time ever with the former qualifying in its first year of eligibility. Next year’s Men’s Final Four will be held at Ford Field in Detroit. Below we will have previews of both Final Four games on Saturday. Enjoy.
2026 Women’s Final Four in Phoenix on Friday, Sunday
Like the men’s tourney, the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament has seen most of the big dogs and survive and advance on to Phoenix, Arizona where it was hotter than Venus to end the Winter and where UFOs, Whattaburger and cacti call the mystical Sonoran Desert home.
Last year, it was Paige Bueckers and Connecticut, UCLA, South Carolina, and Texas who made it to the Final Four in Tampa where the Huskies pounded the Bruins by 34 (85-51) and the Gamecocks ousted the Longhorns by 17 (74-57). UConn beat South Carolina by 23 in the title game (82-59).
On Friday, April 3—a day before the Men—the 2026 Women’s Final Four will be contested at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona with Game 1 and the first Semifinal tipping off at 7 EDT (ESPN, 6 CDT/4 PDT) and Game 2 following at 9:30 EDT (ESPN, 8:30 CDT/6:30 PDT).
Last year’s Final Four were this 2025-26 NCAA Tournament top seeds, led by Sarah Strong, Azzi Fudd and UConn—on a 52-game winning streak heading into their game vs NC—Lauren Betts and the Bruins, Texas, and fellow SEC heavyweights South Carolina, winners of 3 of the last 8 titles.
This year, the four #1 seeds, UConn, South Carolina, Texas, and UCLA made the Women’s Final Four—for a second straight year—and will play in Phoenix on Friday. You can find trading previews for the UConn-So Carolina and Texas-UCLA games below in this edition of TPR you’re reading.
The 2027 Women’s Final Four will be at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio (April 2, 4, 2027).
Which Party Will Win the US Senate in 2026?
The midterm elections in November will be much talked about and much traded in the prediction markets with power in both houses of Congress—the House of Representatives and the Senate—up for grabs. Currently, the Republicans [R] control all three branches of government.
At Polymarket, traders see a tightening race in ‘Which Party Will Win the Senate in 2026?’ with the Democrats (52%) holding on to a slight 3% lead over the Republicans (49%) after a change this week. The market started with the Elephants way ahead of the Donkeys (71%-29%) on July 20.
Chances the Republican would win the Senate rose as high as 75% (October 26) before plummeting with the popularity of the party’s leader all the way until March 13 when the Democrats were up by 3% (52%-49%) before traders started leaning to the [R] again before the [D] again. This beat goes on.
The 2024 US Presidential election and its results had a lot to do with why prediction markets are so popular now in the US and why they are still legal in most states. The volume here was over $1 million ($1,396,327) with the voting eight months away and Polymarket still semi-relaunching.
In the sister market, the ’Which Party Will Win the House of Representatives in 2026?’ shows some potential trouble for the incumbents with the Democrats sitting at 85% and the Republicans trading at 13% on March 27 at Polymarket for the midterms on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal in April?
In one of the most important conflicts affecting most everyone on the planet, the current situation between the US-Israel and Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing with ship traffic and oil transportation being affected by the narrow Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.
Even though US President Trump has declared victory, the Iranians were not conceding anything and saying ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would be stymied as long as the US continued its aggression. Unphased, Trump is sending 1,000 more troops to the region and the world is on edge.
Oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for almost everyone on our planet, and when traffic is slowed or threatened, the price of gas—which affects everything in so many industries worldwide—rises rapidly and fear and loathing kicks in like the morning alarm clock.
And Kharg Island is the crown jewel to Iran’s oil production and distribution in this region.
Traders at Polymarket can bet on what chances ‘Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by the End of April?’ and in a very liquid market ($2,057,013 on April 1), the sentiment was ‘No’ (82%) with ‘Yes’ contracts only at 18%. Trading Pick: None
2026 MLB American League West Winner at Robinhood
In the 2025 AL West Division Winner market last year, the Seattle Mariners held off the Houston Astros to win the division by 3 games (90-72 to 87-75) as the M’s finished strong (7-3 L10) in the division, which like the NL West, had two teams above .500, two below .500 and one at 81-81.
Seattle (51-30) was the best at Home, the Astros were best on the Road (41-40) and the 3rd-place Rangers actually ended with the best Run Differential (+79). The A’s (76-86) finished in 4th playing in Sacramento while the Angels (72-90, -164 RD) replaced the A’s as the AL West’s kitty litter.
MLB traders at Robinhood are backing the loaded Mariners (51%) to be the AL West Division Winner this campaign over the Texas Rangers (24%), Houston Astros (23%), Nick Kurtz and the Athletics (4%), and vet Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angeles (4%) in the Junior Circuit division.
➤Trading Thoughts: Seattle has assembled a great starting pitching staff, led by co-aces and AL Cy Young Award Winner candidates Logan Gilbert (6-6; 8% chance, Polymarket) and George Kirby (10-8, 7%,) and studs like C Cal Raleigh (.247/60/125) and CF Julio Rodríguez (.267/32/95).
In the 2025 MLB Regular Season, the M’s went 8-5 vs the Astros and a difference-making 10-3 vs the Rangers for a net +10 in a division they won by 3. All the small things. Life is all small things. Seattle is on the upswing and is the easy pick here. Trading Pick: Seattle Mariners, Yes 51¢
2026 MLB National League West Winner at Robinhood
In the 2025 MLB Regular Season, the defending World Series champ Dodgers won the NL West, taking the 5-team division by 3 games with an 93-69 record with the Padres (90-72), Giants (81-81), Diamondbacks (80-82), and anemic Rockies (43-119) all following in a predictable order.
Los Doyers and the Friars were the best at Home (52-29) with LA owning the best Road record (41-40). Colorado was the worst at Home (25-56) and the Road (18-63) and allowed 1,021 runs with a sad -424 Run Differential (597 RF-1021 RA). Relegation to AAA is near? We get out the red.
At Robinhood, pro baseball traders are strongly backing Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers (90%) to repeat as NL West Division Winners with the San Francisco Giants (6%), San Diego Padres (4%), Arizona Diamondbacks (3%) and Colorado Rockies (1%) following in the Senior Circuit division.
➤Trading Thoughts: Despite the rosters and reputations, this is still a four-team race with the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all very capable of surprising the champions but with that starting pitching staff, scoring on LA will be hard, especially if Ohtani returns to pitching form.
The Dodgers can play the same way they did last season, spurting when they want to and LA only had the best record within a given month in 2025, tying for that honor last April. When you have the best player since Babe Ruth and those fans, cruise control is the easiest way to drive, Mr Mojo. Trading Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, Yes 90¢
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award Winner at Kalshi
As the 2025-26 NBA Regular Season continues to slowly wind down, the likely winners of the various awards the league hands out like Most Valuable Player, Coach of the Year, and Most Improved Player are becoming clearer.
In the ‘Sixth Man of the Year Winner?’ at Kalshi, it seems like the race is over with traders backing Spurs F Keldon Johnson (72%) over Heat F Jaime Jaquez Jr (20%) and Thunder G Ajay Mitchell (3%) with Wolves C Naz Reid., Rockets G Reed Sheppard, and Pistons PF Isaiah Stewart out os the picture now.
➤Trading Thoughts: Kentucky product Johnson has great numbers (13.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) off the SA bench and the 26-year-old has been a huge reason the Spurs (57-18) are pressing the defending champion Thunder (60-16) in the Western Conference as well as for the NBA’s best record.
Jaquez (14.9 PPG) is playing for a Miami team still fighting to make the Postseason, and this award, like most, is determined by a panel of broadcasters and sportswriters and giraffeman Wembayama and the Spurs keep impressing. Trading Picks: Keldon Johnson, Yes 72¢, Jamie Jaquez Jr, No 80¢
English FA Quarterfinals Contested on Saturday
The oldest soccer tournament in the world, the English Football Association Challenge Cup (FA Cup) is down to the final eight clubs in the 2025-26 FA Cup with winners from Round 5 now meeting this weekend (April 4-5) after the draw was held in the 145th edition on March 9..
On Saturday, Manchester City welcomes Liverpool to Etihad Stadium (ESPN Deportes, 7:45 EDT/4:45 PDT) while Chelsea hosts the lowest-ranking club in Port Vale—a team which hasn’t made it to this stage since 1953-54—at Stamford Bridge in London (ESPN+, 12:15 EDT/9:15 PDT).
Defending EPL champions Arsenal are at St Mary’s Stadium in Southampton to face Southampton on Saturday (ESPN+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT) with West Ham United hosting Leeds United at London Stadium in Stratford, London on Sunday (ESPN+, 11:30 EDT/10:30 CDT/8:30 PDT).
Crystal Palace won the 2025 FA Cup Final, 1-0, defeating the Citizens as Eberechi Eze had the game’s only goal at Wembley Stadium in London, England on May 17, 2025.
Polymarket traders are buying ‘Yes’ on Arsenal (34%) to lift the trophy in May, followed by Erling Haaland and Manchester City (26%), Pedro Neto (3 goals) and Chelsea (19%), Liverpool (13%), West Ham United (6%), Leeds United AFC (5%), Southampton (2%), and Port Vale (1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Gabriel Martinelli and Arsenal are a club on a mission, with sites set on the UEFA Champions League (8-0-0, 23 GF-4 GA), English Premier League (21-7-3, 61 GF-22 GA), and this FA Cup silverware after losing to MCFC in the Carabao Cup final earlier this year (2-0).
Manchester City should get past Liverpool, who learned Mo Salah will no longer be wearing a Reds kit in the future. You’ll never walk alone, but in the end you’ll have to take the Yellow Submarine out of Merseyside and carry that weight, carry that weight a long time, Mo. The Sky Blues are mad.
Mad can be a good thing in sports. The Blues just haven’t been playing consistently and the goalkeeping is leaving something to be desired. Like the EPL, this is an Arsenal vs MCFC duel and it’s just a matter of if they meet in the next round or in the Final. Trading Pick: Arsenal Yes 36¢
Women’s Final Four Preview: SC vs UConn on Friday
The first Semifinal game in the 2026 Women’s Final Four between Regional 4—Sacramento #1 seed South Carolina (35-3) and Regional 1—Ft Worth and defending national champions Connecticut (38-0) will be contested at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona on Friday night (ESPN, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT).
South Carolina trounced Southern (103-94), fellow USC, Southern Cal (101-61), Oklahoma (94-68), and TCU (78-52) to get here while UConn alphabetized UTSA (90-52), painted Syracuse black (98-45), bounced North Carolina (63-42) before beating Notre Dame (70-52) to run the Huskies win streak to 54.
Traders at Kalshi are backing Sarah Strong, Azzi Fudd, and UConn (74%) over South Carolina (26%) in the first women’s Semifinal in the Valley of the Sun. The Point Spread sees UConn wins by over 6.5 points trading at 51% with the Total of over 139.5 points scored at 42%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Huskies never lose and look to make more history and should advance from this game with Strong (18.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG) and Fudd (17.5 PPG) doing their thing and key role players like Blanca Quiñonez (10.9 PPG), Ashlynn Shade (7.6), and Allie Ziebell (7.4 PPG), and KK Arnold (7.1 PPG) shining.
The Gamecocks are led by a solid five of Joyce Edwards (19.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG), Ta’Niya Latson (14.4 PPG), Madina Okot (13.2 PPG, 10.8 RPG), Tessa Johsnon (12.9 PPG), and Raven Johnson (10.2 PPG), but the last 2 times SC has faced UConn they have tasted defeat.
Lifetime, UConn is 11-5 vs South Carolina and the Huskies defeated the Gamecocks in last year’s 2025 Women’s National Championship Game at Amalie Arena in Tampa (82-59). Expect this one to be closer but for the defending champs to roll on. Trading Pick: UConn wins by over 6.5 points, Yes 51¢
Women’s Final Four Preview: Texas vs UCLA on Friday
The second Semifinal game in the 2026 Women’s Final Four will see Regional 4—Sacramento #1 seed UCLA (35-1) facing Regional 2—Ft Worth #1 seed Texas (36-3) at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona on Friday night (ESPN, 9:30 EDT/8:30 CDT/7:30 MDT/6:30 PDT).
UCLA baptized California Baptist (96-43), Oklahoma State (87-68), Minnesota (80-56), and Duke (70-58) to get here while Texas pulverized its opponents, beating Missouri State by 42 (87-45), Oregon by 42 (100-58), Kentucky by 22 (76-54) and Michigan by 36 (77-412). Send a maid please.
Kalshi traders are betting on Texas (55%) over UCLA (45%) in the second women’s Semifinal in Phoenix on Friday. The Point Spread sees Texas wins by over 1.5 points trading at 53% with the Total of over 131.5 points scored at 56%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Bruins have just one loss all year (Texas) and are led by star Lauren Betts (17.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG), Kiki Rice (15.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Gabriela Jacquez (13.4 PPG), Angela Dugalic (9.1 PPG), and Gianna Kneepkens (12.8 PPG) and the Bruins have a solid bench in Westwood.
The Longhorns are led by Madison Booker (19.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG), Jordan Lee (13.3 PPG), Kyla Oldacre (10.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG), Justice Carlton (8.5 PPG), Rori Harmon (8.4 PPG), Aaliyah Crump (8.0) and Breya Cunningham (7.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG), so this Texas team is deep and very balanced.
Lifetime, UCLA is 5-5- vs Texas, but the Longhorns have won the last 2 straight and 4 of the last 5, including a 76-65 triumph this season at the Players Era Championship in Las Vegas on November 26 in a game where Texas led 45-25 at halftime at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Trading Picks: Texas Game Winner, Yes 57¢
East, South Region Champs in Final Four on Saturday
The first Final Four game of the Big Dance will see Alex Karaban and East champs and #2-seed Connecticut (33-5) meeting South champs and #3-seed Illinois (28-8) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday afternoon (TBS, TNT, truTV, HBO Max, 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/5:30 PDT).
Illinois beat Penn in its opener, followed by VCU and #2-seed Houston before ousting upstart Iowa in the Elite 8 while UConn defeated Furman in its opener, UCLA in the Second Round, MSU in the Sweet 16, and Duke in the East Regional title tilt on a miraculous last-second shot by Braylon Mullins after a Huskies steal after trailing by 19 points.
Three days out from tipoff, College Basketball traders at Kalshi were backing Illinois (55%) over UConn (46%). The winner plays the winner of the Arizona-Michigan game following in the 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship Game on Monday (TBS, TNT, ruTV, 8:30 ET/7:30 CT/5:30 PT).
➤Trading Thoughts: Both the UConn Men and Women continue to impress, with both having a chance to bring another national title back to Storrs. With Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed Jr.. Silas Demary Jr, Solo Ball and now March Madness legend Braylon Mullins. HC Danny Hurley has another gutty group.
IIllinois is as good as it has ever been, with NBA prospect Keaton Wagler (17.9) running the point next to Kylan Boswell and a Fab Four of Tall Ic’s who can score and rebound in Andrej Stojakovic (13.6 PPG), David Mirkovic (13.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG), Tomiclav Ivisic (10.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG), and brother Zvonimir Ivisic (6.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG).
This could be a good one, and it’s hard to suggest a lean although legendary expert NCAAB Men’s handicapper Alan Boston gave his opinions on this game and the Final Four in his recent appearance on the Bill Krackomberger WagerTalk TV podcast from March 30. Trading Pick: None
Midwest, West Region Champs in Final Four Saturday
The second Final Four game and the second-to-last game of the 2025-26 NCAAB season sees West champs and #1-seed Arizona (36-2) facing Midwest champs and #1-seed Michigan (35-3) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday (TBS, TNT, truTV, HBO Max 8:49 EDT/7:49 CDT/5:49 PDT).
Arizona defeated LIU in its opener, Utah State in the Second Round, Arkansas in the Sweet 16, and Purdue in the Elite 8 while Michigan defeated Howard in its opener, LeBron Frames (Robbie Avila) and Saint Louis in the Second Round, Alabama in the Sweet 16, and Tennessee in the Elite 8.
College Basketball traders at Polymarket are backing Michigan (53%) over Arizona (48%). The winner here will face the winner of the UConn-Illinois Semifinal for all the marbles in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Game on Monday (CBS, 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/5:30 PDT).
The National Semifinals and Championship Game are like a national holiday, with the host city acting as the bartender/hotel/arena operator for a week or so and earning the financial benefits and reputation of that honor. For the first time ever, Las Vegas will host the Final Four in 2028.
➤Trading Thoughts: Arizona has been brilliant this season, with Braden Burries (16.1 PPG), Jaden Bradley (13.3 PPG), Koa Peat (14.1 PPG), Ivan Kharchenov (10.5), Motiejus Krivas (10.4), Tobe Awaka (9.3 PPG), and Anthony Dell’Orso (8.6 PPG) shining like the bright warm sun in Tucson.
Michigan has been equally brilliant, with Elliot Cadeau, Nimari Burnett, and Roddy Gayle Jr. in the backcourt and stud Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Illini transfer Morez Johnson Jr. in the talented frontcourt in Ann Arbor. This is must-watch TV. Trading Picks: Arizona Game Winner, Yes 48¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the first major of the 2026 PGA season, The Masters, When Will DHS be Funded?, Will Trump Visit China by....?, the Spotify Top Artist of 2026, Which 3 Clubs Will be Relegated From the EPL, the NCAA Men’s Hockey Frozen Four tournament and we will have previews of all four UEFA CL Quarterfinal Leg 1s. Thank you for subscribing.