Polymarket Traders See Bleak Future for Tennessee HC
Prediction market Polymarket is a great tipoff of what may happen next in sports, and the Next NFL Head Coach Fired market is a perfect example of why event-based trading can make seeing future changes in players’, coaches’, or even franchise destinations clearer.
Although not the perfect Digital Age crystal ball, predictive markets also offer a unique context to the outcomes traders are backing (“Yes”) or fading (“No”).
In this popular Polymarket NFL offering, Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel was the clearcut traders choice to be the first guy to get the axe this 2025 NFL Regular Season with the 5th-year Miami man having a 36% chance of being the next (first) NFL head coach fired on Sunday.
But traders gobbled up Brian Callahan “Yes” contracts from Monday to Thursday, making the Tennessee Titans head man the new favorite to be fired first at 48% (Yes 58¢, No 63¢). But that was before McDaniel (now 31%) and the Dolphins played the Jets and won on MNF.
Following in this market at Polymarket that no Head Coach wants to see his name in were the Giants Brian Daboll (10%), the Panthers Dave Canales (10%), the Bengals Zac Taylor (8%), the Falcons Raheem Morris (5%), the Cardinals Jonathan Gannon (3%), the Browns Kevin Stefanski (1%), the Colts Shane Steichen (1%) and Steelers icon Mike Tomlin (1%),
Bleak future for Tennessee HC
The heat is on both Callahan and McDaniel and it’s hard to see any of the other candidates being replaced before one of these two AFC Head Coaches. The Titans have started 0-4 after going 3-14 and Tennessee has lost its last 10 games and has the worst Point Differential (-69) in the NFL.
Miami is off to a 1-3 start after going 8-9 last season after an 11-6 year in 2023. McDaniel has a lifetime record of 29-26 for the Dolphins and is 0-2 in the NFL Playoffs. The Dolphins last win in the Playoffs was back in 2000. My thought here is that Callahan will definitely be the first to go.
Steichen Surges in NFL Head Coach of Year Market
On Polymarket in the NFL Coach of the Year market, the Indianapolis Colts Shane Steichen (21%, Yes 25.0¢, No 83.0¢) is back on top for traders after a momentary blip which saw the Buffalo Bills Sean McDermott (10%, Yes 14¢, No 94¢) slightly on top on Monday.
After those two AFC coaches, the 49ers Kyle Shanahan (8%), the Dolphins Mike McDaniel (6%), the Steelers Mike Tomlin (5%), the Cardinals Jonathan Gannon (5%), the Raiders Pete Carroll (4%), the Jets Aaron Glenn (4%), and the Redskins Dan Quinn (4%) were the traders’ favorites.
Steichen Surges on NFL Head Coach of Year Market
Showing the quirkiness of predictive markets, Coen was also trading at 13% on Monday in the NFL Coach of the Year market on Kalshi. He can’t be both, brother.
McDermott’s Bills (4-0) and Steichen’s Colts (3-1) are off to magical starts this NFL season, but as we all know, the tide can change very fast in this league and only one Head Coach can get this award which was won last year by the Minnesota Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell.
What Will Taylor Swift Say on The Tonight Show?
Musical typhoon Taylor Swift releases her 12th studio album today, the 12-song The Life a Showgirl, and the 35 year old singer-songwriter will be appearing on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon on Monday, October 6 (NBC, Peacock, 11:35 ET/PT)
For the show, Kalshi has built a strong Mentions model with its What Will Taylor Swift Say During The Tonight Show? chock full of dozens of words and phrases Swift might say in her interview with Fallon at Studio 6B in Rockefeller Center in New York City.
Taylor Swift
The album’s title, ”The Life a Showgirl” was given a 90% shot of being said by Kalshi traders a week out, followed by “Tour” (85%), “Engage/Engaged” (79%), “Sabrina Carpenter” (70%), “Ring” (66%), “Era” (64%), “Wedding” (59%), “Cat” (56%), “Midnight” (48%), “Kelce” (44%), and “Egg” (38%).
Some mentions given a lesser chance include “Bitcoin/Crypto” (3%), “James/Comey” (5%), “Elon/Musk” (6%), “Trump” (8%), “Sydney/Sweeney” (9%), “Pregnant/Pregnancy” (11%), “22” (14%), “Breakup” (15%), “Abigail” (19%), “Grammy” (24%), “NFL” (25%), and “Super Bowl” (25%).
You might be wondering, who is “Abigail”? Abigail is Swift’s longtime best friend Abigail Anderson.
Where Will Inflation Close in 2025?
The Kalshi platform dials up the Inflation in 2025? market in its Economics category, a pretty straightforward, albeit maybe boring one with no real faces, sounds, or bright colors.
There are currently five ranges in this market given a 3% chance or better by traders at Kalshi with the 3.1% to 3.5% range the favorite with a 58% chance (Yes 58¢, No 48¢), followed by 2.6% to 3% (25%), 3.6% to 4% (15%), 2.1% to 2.5% (2%), and 4.1% to 4.5% (3%).
Where Will Inflation Close in 2025?
Inflation in the US over the last four years has been 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, 4.1% in 2023, and 2.9%-3% in 2024. Since the implementation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1913, the highest annual rate of inflation in the US was in 1917 when it hit 17.8%.
Will Solana Hit a New All-Time High This Year?
Founded in 2018 by Raj Gokal and Anatoly Yakovenko, public blockchain platform Solana was launched by Solana Labs in San Francisco in March 2020. The native cryptocurrency of this platform is SOL.
Not as big of a player in the Crypto landscape, Solana does have its strong qualities and SOL reached a new all-time high on January 19, 2025, flirting with the $295 mark and profiting from a bullish sentiment after advances in its ecosystem and a strong performance.
On Thursday, Solana was trading at $224.44, up some, but still more than $70 from that all-time high. And Kalshi traders in the Will Solana Hit a New All-Time High This Year? are pessimistic about SOL eclipsing that mark in the next three months (42% chance, Yes 52¢, No 52¢).
Solana
But three months can be a very long period of time. Especially in prediction trading markets.
The rules in this market are simple. If the trading prince of Solana trades above the 204.096 mark before 10 am EST on Jan. 1, 2026, the “Yes” contracts are resolved as the winner. The outcome of this market will be verified by CF Benchmarks.
CF Benchmarks
What Will Roofman Rotten Tomatoes Score Be?
On Kalshi, there is a fun prediction market, "Roofman" Rotten Tomatoes Score?, for the American bio crime drama (2025) based on the true story of Jeffrey Manchester from Rancho Cordova, California who robbed fast food restaurants in the late 1990s by cutting holes in their roofs,
After going to prison, Manchester, known as the “Roofman,” escaped and spent several months living undetected in a Toys “R” Us in Charlotte, North Carolina before being captured again by authorities.
Starring Channing Tatum (Jeffrey Manchester) and Kirsten Dunst (Leigh Wainscott), Roofman, which premieres on October 10, was given these chances in these Rotten Tomatoes score ranges by Kalshi traders:
● Above 90 2%
● Above 85 14%
● Above 80 53%
● Above 75 71%
● Above 70 91%
● Above 60 98%
● Above 45 99%
When will this market be resolved? The Tomatometer score for the Derek Cianfrance directed Roofman on Oct. 13, 2025 at 10 am ET will determine which prediction market(s) pay out.
Will There Be a Case of Polio in the USA This Year?
Kalshi is offering trading in the Will There Be a Case of Polio in the USA This Year? which sees the “Yes”being given a 15% chance (Yes 15¢, No 92¢) in a market that had stayed in a relatively tight (8% to 28%) trading range from April to September.
Polio
The “No” seems like the right look here with the US seeing no reported cases of polio since 1979 with a case of the natural form of the virus, the wild poliovirus. Thankfully, there have been no reported cases of polio since then, a period of 46 years.
Sunshine State Scuffle on Saturday Night in Tallahassee
There are a number of intriguing games on the NCAA Week 6 schedule, including a fun ACC collision between No. 2 Miami Florida (4-0-0) and No. 8 Florida State (3-1-0) from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida on Saturday, October 4 (ABC, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT).
In the Kalshil trading market, Miami was given a 63% chance to win this night game over FSU (37%) who suffered its first loss in Week 5 in 2 OT in an exciting game at Virginia. Sportsbooks have the Hurricanes as 3½-point road favorites over the Seminoles with the Total at 59½.
The two teams have played 69 times (MIA 36-33) with Florida State winning the last meeting, 27-20 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on November 11, 2023. Both programs have done much to try to get back to the glory days and both were sitting in the Top 10 in Week 5.
Polymarket Traders Liking Ankalaev at UFC 320
The T-Mobile Center in Las Vegas on Saturday night is the site of UFC 320, where the Main Event will see Magomed Ankalaev facing Alex Pereira in a rematch of their UFC Light Heavyweight Championship on March 8, 2025 in Las Vegas which Ankalaev won by a Unanimous Decision.
Polymarket traders were giving Ankalaev (20-1-1 (1 NC) a 68% chance to defend his belt (Buy Ankalaev 69¢) with Pereira (12-3-0) contracts trading at 33¢ early Thursday for UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
In the Bantamweight Division co-Main Event, Merab Dvalishvili (20-4-0) was given a 76% chance to beat Cory Sandhagen (18-5-0) by traders in the prediction market (Buy Sandhagen 25¢).
The Early Preliminary Card bouts will air on UFC Fight Pass, ESPNews and FX (6 EDT), the Prelims will be on ESPN+ (8 EDT) with the Main Card airing on ESPN+ on the Pay-Per-View (PPV) platform (10 EDT).
Here were the numbers for the rest of the card including the Preliminary Card and Early Prelims:
● Jiří Procházka (65¢) vs Khalil Rountree (36¢)
● Josh Emmett (22¢) vs Youssef Zalal (79¢)
● Abusupiyan Magomedov (33¢) vs Joe Pyfer (68¢)
● Ozzy Diaz (50¢) vs Ateba Gautier (51¢)
● Edmen Shahbazyan (73¢) vs André Muniz (30¢)
● Chris Gutiérrez (21¢) vs Farid Basharat (80¢)
● Daniel Santos (56¢) vs Yoo Joo-sang (45¢)
● Macy Chiasson (65¢) vs Yana Santos (37¢)
● Patchy Mix (74¢) vs Jakub Wikłacz (30¢)
● Punahele Soriano (76¢) vs Nikolay Veretennikov (29¢)
● Rahiz Brahimaj (29¢) vs Austin Vanderford (72¢)
● Veronica Hardy (87¢) vs Brogan Walker (21¢)
Piastri Your F1 Drivers Champion Say Kalshi Traders
In the F1 Drivers’ Champion market at Kalshi, current points leader Oscar Piastri (McLaren) of Australia is being given a 69% chance (Yes 69¢, No 34¢) of winning the 2025 Formula One World Drivers’ Championship over teammate and UK driver Lando Norris (24%).
The Netherlands’ Max Verstappen has been the Formula One World Drivers’ Championship the last four seasons (2021-2024) but the 24-year-old Piastri—who has won nine Grand Prix over three seasons—looks poised to dethrone the king with seven wins already this F1 season.
F1
Piastri (324 points) leads Norris (299) by 25 points in the 2025 Drivers’ Standings heading into the Singapore Grand Prix at the Marina Bay Street Circuit in Marina Bay, Singapore this Sunday, October 5 (ESPN, 7:55 am EDT/4:55 am PDT). Norris won this race last season.
After Singapore and Round 18, there are just six F1 races left on the season but two in the US, the United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas on Oct. 19 (Round 19) and the Las Vegas Grand Prix at the Las Vegas Strip Circuit in Paradise, Nevada on Nov. 22 (Round 22).
Broncos-Eagles Meet in Philly in NFL Week 5 on Sunday
The Philadelphia Eagles (4-0-0) welcome the Denver Broncos (2-2-0) to Lincoln Financial Field (HERO Hybrid Grass) in Philadelphia for a Week 5 interleague battle in the City of Brotherly Love and Cheesesteak Fanatics on Sunday (CBS, 1 EDT/10 PDT).
In Week 4 play, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles played poorly on offense but still managed a home win over the Buccaneers to remain undefeated on Sunday while the Broncos rebounded with a convincing win in Denver over the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night.
Traders in the Kalshi football NFL market give Philadelphia a decent 64% chance of winning this game with Denver at 36%. Sportsbooks have the Eagles—winners of 20 of their last 21 games—as solid 3.5- to 4.5-point favorites with the Total (points) at 43.5 everywhere.
Looking at the last 10 meetings between these two teams, we see that Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and Philadelphia are 6-4, winning three of the last four in the series. For me, a look at underdog Broncos contracts would be the play.
Juventus Hosts AC Milan in Serie A Showdown on Sunday
Dušan Vlahović and Juventus (3-2-0) welcome Luka Modrić and AC Milan (4-0-1) for this Italian Serie A Matchweek 6 clash of titans from Allianz Stadium Juventus (Grass) in Torino, Italy on this Sunday, October 5 (Paramount+, 2:45 EDT/11:45 PDT).
Traders at Kalshi are giving hosts Juventus a 36% chance to beat AC Milan (36%) outright with a Draw outcome at 31%.
Last season in 2024 Serie A play, The Old Lady won 2-0 at home and tied 0-0 at AC Milan, two years ago, Juventus tied 0-0 in Torino and won 1-0 in Milan, while three seasons ago, AC Milan notched two clean sheets vs Juventus, winning 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road.
SERIA A
Six matches, eight teams with zero goals and no game with more than two goals.
The problem with backing Juve here is they have just one player with two goals (Vlahović) and expecting to slow down veteran midfield Croatian maestro Modrić, American star Christian Pulisic (4 goals), Mexican sparkplug Santiago Giménez and I Bianconeri attack may be problematic.
Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.