As we come up on Thanksgiving, the biggest story we see on the news is about the so-called Epstein Files, a collection of documents stored as over 300 gigabytes of data used as evidence by the FBI and the DOJ in the criminal case of Jeffrey Epstein.
Epstein, a financier from Brooklyn New York, and his associate, Ghislane Maxwell, were both convicted of the sex trafficking of minors. Epstein hung himself while in jail awaiting trial while Maxwell was recently moved from Florida to a minimum-security women’s prison in Texas.
On Wednesday, we saw President Trump sign the release of the Epstein Files into law, and Senators from both parties have told Attorney General Pam Bondi the DOJ must now comply with the law and release the files within 30 days.
But will the DOJ actually release the files? And when? And how much of it will be redacted?
Prediction market traders at Polymarket and Kalshi are on similar pages with 73% on Polymarket thinking Trump (sign the ultimate) release of the files by December 31, 2025 while the kids over at Kalshi are at 75% for a release by 2026.
Trading in this market seems full of variables, precise distinctions and possibly a final definition of if what is ultimately released constitutes the “full” or “real” Epstein Files. The White House is calling for full transparency but their actions now will likely determine if the public gets to see it all.
The public seems wise enough to already know we won’t be seeing what the FBI and DOJ saw with their eyeballs in this data. The names of those implicated may be a mountain or just a mole hill. Expect this to stretch on forever with the families of the victims never really getting their justice.
Mentions markets may be boring in their own way, but at least when trading most of them, you don’t have to get the guilt or strange feelings some might get when trading on sensitive things like this, Will Russia Capture Siversk by..., or Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?
Collectibles Prediction Markets? Kalshi Has Them Now
Kalshi and StockX announced last week they are teaming up to offer prediction market trading on the future prices of select collectibles like Labubu, Supreme, Pokémon cards, and Air Jordan sneakers. StockX will provide all of the relevant sales data.
The first of these contracts are already trading live at Kalshi. Here is what’s in their library so far:
Initial thoughts: It’s hard to tell how popular and liquid these new types of markets will be, but they are unique for sure and have fun content and cater to some of the unique niches prediction markets can offer up trading on like Reality TV shows, elite collectibles like these, and Mentions.
What markets could be next in this space? Great works of art? Maybe sports trading cards?
A Michael Jordan & Kobe Bryant 2007-08 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection Dual Logoman Autographs card sold for $12.9 million last month at Heritage Auctions, making it the most expensive sports card ever, dethroning the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle rookie card ($12.6 million).
If Kalshi, or any other prediction markets are going to delve into trading cards and their future average or peak value(s), they’ll need huge amounts of data as there are so many card manufacturers and new ways to make cards with pieces of jerseys, autographs, and now digitally.
Nothing digital in collectibles will ever have more value than something you can actually hold.
Young Mantis Knocks Down 151 Straight Free Throws
YouTube content creator “Young Mantis” (Adam Smith) successfully made 151 free throw shots in a row last week in a market which was actually offered by Kalshi, How Long Will it Take for Young Mantis to Hit 135 Free Throws in a Row? And that 135th shot? He made it while blindfolded.
Young Mantis successfully completed a 100 Straight Free Throws stunt in August of this year and we will likely be seeing trading markets emerging from some of these human extremes suited for the Guinness Book of World Records.
The Indiana native, of course, was motivated by fellow Hoosier and basketball legend John Wooden having connected on 135 straight free throws after he attended Purdue and when he played for the Indianapolis Kautskys and other National Basketball Leagues (NBL) in the 1930s.
“Decades ago, John Wooden knocked down 134 straight free throws in a season. Now my name sits above his,” Young Mantis said last Tuesday after attaining his latest goal.
“ChatGPT told me I had a 1 in a billion chance and that it would take me WEEKS to do this. But between the back spasms, food breaks, and sleeping, I made history like I said I would. I’m also officially a Guinness World Record holder.”
Traders at Kalshi who had “Yes” contracts for Young Mantis to complete the feat in the 13 to 18 hours range collected with the other six markets all resolving to “No.”
After all of the shooting, which was backed by Kalshi, Young Mantis ended up going 1,254 for 1,286 for a 97.5% shooting percentage. Golden State Warriors sharpshooter and living legend Steph Curry has an NBA-record all-time made free throw percentage of 91.1.
What can we expect next from Young Mantis? 500 straight free throws he says. And we can guess that the last free throw, should he pursue it in the future, will not be blindfolded. We will see.
Dell, HP, Best Buy, Announce Earnings After Bell on Tuesday
Several major companies will announce fiscal 3Q earnings this week after the closing bell on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Tuesday including Dell Technologies (DELL), Best Buy (BBY), and HP (HPQ).
Traders at Polymarket like two of those three to beat quarterly earnings estimates with “Yes” sentiment on that outcome at 90% at Dell Technologies, at 90% at Best Buy, but only at 31% at HP, formerly known as Hewlett-Packard which now specializes in PC’s and printing.
Dell is based in Round Rock, Texas and designs, develops, markets, sells, and manufactures products evolving around computers. The company has a market cap value of $106.7 billion and is expected to report a profit of $2.25 per share compared to $1.92 per share in the same quarter last year (+17.2%).
The company recently unveiled its PowerEdge XR8720t server in October which is built to deal with demanding telecom and edge workloads on a single platform.
If you want to listen to the Dell Technologies 3Q earnings report—it is an audio-only event—you can access it at the official Dell Technologies Investor Relations website.
Will Steve Harrington Die in Stranger Things Season 5?
Traders at Myriad Markets in the Will Steve Harrington Die in Stranger Things Season 5? offering think the character Steve Harrington (Joe Keery) will survive the Netflix’s show’s fifth season with 67.6 predicting he won’t die and 32.4% trading that he will meet his maker this season.
The much-anticipated new season premiere of Stranger Things will come in three parts this calendar year with Volume 1 (episodes 1-4) streaming on November 26, Volume 2 (episodes 5-7) dropping on Christmas Day (Dec. 25) , with the final episode (8) released on December 31, 2025.
Why Steve Harrington Likely Won’t Die: This Reddit thread makes scores of good points why killing off this character would be bad for the show and “lazy writing” as one poster wrote saying people have talked about him being killed off since season 2.
Seldom do writers and producers “kill off” major characters on TV shows or streaming series as fans grow attached to them and their story arcs. Joel on The Last Of Us was famously killed off and The Simpsons (FOX, Sundays, 8 EST/PST), said goodbye to Mrs. Glick last week, but this is a rarity.
But not impossible. There is little doubt Steve Harrington will face peril at some point this season, and it could build up suspense for the finale if he should meet his untimely fate on the show (and by the writers). This one is a fun market and one where either outcome makes perfect, strange sense.
Will More People Travel on Thanksgiving Than Last Year?
Last Thanksgiving week (November 26-December 2) in 2024, a record 81.07 million traveled (73.3 million by car, 5.84 million by air), a 6% increase compared to 2023 with the Sunday after Thanksgiving the single busiest travel day of the period with more than 3 million traveling.
In the Will More People Travel on Thanksgiving Than Last Year? market at Polymarket, traders are giving that record a 51% chance of being broken (Yes 53¢, No 51¢), with the market fluctuating of a high of 76% (November 16) to a low of 40% (November 13)
What makes traders think Thanksgiving travel will be busier than last year? The projection from AAA is for more than 82 million Americans will travel with 73 million doing so by automobile and 6 million others taking to the sky (2% increase from 2024).
This one will be close, but with the government shutdown ending and the FAA feeling better about things it could be hurt by bad Thanksgiving week weather and potential air cancellations may make “No” contracts at 52¢ worth some consideration cranberry breath.
NHL Eastern Conference Winner the Panthers Again?
Last year the Florida Panthers won the Eastern Conference en route to a second straight Stanley Cup, beating the Edmonton Oilers a second straight time and depriving Canada of a professional hockey championship for another close-but-no-cigar season. Will Florida make it three in a row?
NHL traders at Polymarket like the Panthers chances to get to the Stanley Cup, giving Florida a 24% chance at advancing from the conference against Sebastian Aho and the Hurricanes (21%), its rivals, the Lightning (15%), the Devils (14%), Capitals (10%), and the Canadiens (11%).
Also in the running according to traders, Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs (7%), the Sabres (6%), Senators (6%), Rangers (4%), Red Wings (4%), Blue Jackets (3%), Bruins (3%), Jaromir Jagr and the Penguins (2%), Islanders (2%), and Flyers (2%).
NHL Eastern Conference champion ice cubes: Looking at the last 10 seasons, a team from the state of Florida has won 6 times, including the last 5 in a row (TB-TB-FLA-FLA-FLA). That also means the Atlantic Division has won the last 5 Price of Wales Trophies. In a state with no ice, hockey rules.
Carolina has made it to the Eastern Conference Finals three times in the last 10 seasons but lost them all. Still, traders at Polymarket think the Canes have the best chance at stopping the Panthers run but backing the Devils (Yes 17¢) now may possibly end up being the best long-term trade.
Lions Hosting Packers in Thanksgiving Day Opener
Jared Goff and Lions (7-4-0, 4-1 Home) open up the doors of Ford Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Detroit to face Jordan Love and the Packers (7-3-1, 3-1-1 Road) in an NFC North rivalry and huge game for both teams (FOX, 1 EST/12 CST/10 PST).
In NFL Week 12, Detroit hosted the Giants in an NFC meeting in Motown which saw the Lions rally late for the win while Green Bay welcomed the Vikings to Lambeau Field in an NFC North game the Cheeseheads needed and got, winning 23-6.
Kalshi traders like Jahmyr Gibbs and the host Lions here (61%) over the Packers (39%) with the Point Spread seeing the Lions -2.5 and the Total at 48.5 (Yes 53¢, No 49¢).
Green Bay at Detroit turkey and stuffing for NFL traders: No one has played more Thanksgiving games than the Lions (38-45-2), but Detroit is 1-7-0 the last 8 Thanksgiving Day games (WLLLLLLL), winning last year vs the Bears to snap a 7-game Turkey Day losing streak.
Green Bay is 15-20-2 on Thanksgiving and the last time these two met on the last Thursday in November, the Packers won in 2023. In the last 10 series meetings, Detroit is 107-78-0 vs GB but the Cheeseheads are a profitable 6-2-0 in the last 8 meetings and the trade here (“Yes”) at 40¢.
Chiefs in Big D in Big Turkey Day Game For Both Sides
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (6-5-0) head to Arlington, Texas on Thursday to face Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (5-5-1) at AT&T Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top) for this interconference clash of legendary NFL franchises having disappointing 2025-6 Regular Seasons.
In Week 12 action, Kansas City hosted Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis and won in OT to get above .500 in a high-profile AFC clash while Dallas welcomed Philadelphia to Jerryworld for an NFC East showdown and impressively rallied from down 21-0 to top the defending Super Bowl champions.
NFL investors at Kalshi are buying the visiting Chiefs (61%) for this Thanksgiving main dish (CBS, Paramount+, 4:30 EST/3:30 CST/1:30 PST) with CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys (39%) home underdogs. Kalshi had Kansas City 3.5-point favorites with the Total at 51.5 (Yes 52¢, No 51¢).
Kansas City at Dallas game trading tidbits: The Chiefs (1-4 Road) need a win in this one to keep their AFC Wild Card hopes alive but Dallas won’t make it easy with nothing to lose and the Home crowd knowing this is the Thanksgiving Day game and the Cowboys tradition of playing host.
Dallas is 33-33-1 lifetime on Thanksgiving and have won their last 3 games played on the holiday. In the 12 lifetime series meetings, the Cowboys are 7-5-0 vs the Chiefs with the Home team winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Despite KC needing the win, Dallas (Yes 39¢) is worth a look.
Memphis Sets the Thanksgiving Table for Navy on Thursday
There is only one NCAAF Week 13 game on Thanksgiving and it comes from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) where league leaders Navy (8-2, 6-1 in AAC), heads to the Volunteer State to face Memphis (8-3, 4-3 AAC) on Thursday evening (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST).
In Week 11, the Tigers lost to East Carolina and then enjoyed an off week while the Middies upset No. 23 South Florida before a week off. This is the last Regular Season game for Memphis while Navy plays Army in the last Regular Season game on Saturday, December 13 (CBS, 3 EST/12 PST).
College Football traders at Kalshi are somewhat split in this contest from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (AstroTurf) in the Midtown area of Memphis with Memphis at 64% with 36% on Navy.
Navy at Memphis Stats and Trends for traders: Lifetime, Navy is 4-6-0 vs Memphis, but the Tigers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, but lost last season to Navy, 56-44 in a game where both teams scored in every quarter in Annapolis, Maryland and ended with a total of 100 points.
This game will have AAC implications. Memphis beat Arkansas and South Florida at Home but fell to Tulane, now in the CFP talk. Taking a chance on Navy (“Yes”) contracts at 38¢ seems like the only approach. This is a game the rush-happy visitors (308.2 YPG, #1) can win despite the odds.
Mad Ravens and Sad Bengals Meet on Thanksgiving Night
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (6-5-0) welcome the wounded Bengals (3-8-0) to M&T Ban Stadium (SURFACE) in Baltimore, Maryland for this NFL Week 13 game between AFC North rivals on Thursday night, after your turkey has digested (NBC, Peacock, 8:20 EST/5:20 PST).
In Week 12 action, Baltimore hosted the Jets and....got back above the .500 mark with their fifth straight win after a 1-5 start while Cincinnati welcomed the Pats to the River City where Drake Maye and NE won their ninth straight game to hold on to homefield advantage in the AFC.
Pro Football traders in the Kalshi are backing Derrick Henry and the host Ravens (74%) with Jamar Chase and the Bengals (26%) big underdogs. Kalshi had Baltimore 7.5-point favorites with the Total at 50.5 (Yes 56¢, No 48¢).
Cincinnati at Baltimore game trading tidbits: Momentum always matter and the Ravens are streaking one way (W5) while the Bengals (L4, 1-4 Road) are already thinking about next season as Joe Burrow readies his return, but too late with the AFC North and a Wild Card simply dreams.
In the last 14 series meetings, the Ravens are 10-4-0 vs Cincy, winning the last three meetings in Baltimore and six of the last seven in Crab City. These two will play again on December 14 in Cincinnati. The Ravens are 2-0 vs the AFC North and have won four straight in their division.
On the injury front, Bengals QB Joe Burrow may finally return and that sentiment and news sent Baltimore from being backed by 84% to 73% for this game. But this was a team almost buried and dead after a 1-5 start but now streaking and strangely atop the AFC North before Thanksgiving.
SB Champion Eagles Hosting Da Bears on Black Friday
Jalen Hurts and the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (8-3-0) welcome Caleb Williams and the upstart Bears (8-3-0) to Lincoln Financial Field (HERO Hybrid Grass) in Philadelphia for this very enticing NFL Week 13 NFC inter-divisional collision (Prime Video, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
In Week 12 action on the gridiron on Sunday, Philadelphia lost at Dallas in an NFC East tussle in the Lone State State that breathed some life into America’s Team while the Bears faced the Steelers at Soldier Field in the Windy City and held on to win their fourth straight game.
NFL traders in the Kalshi are behind Saquon Barkley and the host Eagles (73%) with Andre Swift and the Bears (27%) getting little love in the prediction market. Kalshi had Philadelphia big 8.5-point favorites with the Total at 45.5 (Yes 49¢, No 54¢).
Chicago at Philadelphia Game Winner market trading tidbits: There are several reasons to like the Eagles here: Philadelphia is 4-1 at Home and a gaudy 20-4 in its last 24 games at Lincoln Financial Field in the City of Brotherly (We Call It) Love and Snowballs Thrown at Santa Claus.
Lifetime, the Bears are 29-14-1 vs the Eagles but in the last 10 series meetings, Philadelphia has gone 8-2-0, winning the last 7 straight by a combined 108 points. The Eagles defense (20.5 PPG, #8) is too strong and don't expect Chicago to win the TO battle in this Black Friday meeting.
We wish you all a wonderful and peaceful Thanksgiving and prosperous trading this holiday week.
