Members of the Trump administration are divided about whether or not China is serious about actually invading Taiwan someday. Experts are more cynical of such an attack, while prediction markets have softened in the Will China Invade Taiwan By End of 2026? trade.
After peaking out at a predicted 44% chance on Polymarket on July 24, 2025, traders have been buying the “No” contracts and have driven that number down to 17% as of Monday. But one user named comon119 reportedly allocated $120,000 into a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
So does he know something or is this just a big speculative gamble? If an invasion should happen next year, he will collect $1.5 million.
The Republic Of China (Taiwan) is a democracy (unitary semi-presidential republic), currently ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and President William Lai (Lai Ching-te) while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has always maintained that Taiwan is a part of its territory.
Like Russian President Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine, national pride would be the primary reason that China would feel the need to invade Taiwan. The military buildup and rhetoric through the years from China and President Xi Jinping have always made this a serious geopolitical issue.
Will China invade Taiwan?
But experts have said the economic and worldly consequences will be too much for China. Trump recently met with the Chinese president and said China wouldn’t invade Taiwan as long as he was in office. Trump also said Russia would have never invaded Ukraine if he was in the White House.
When Joe Biden was president, his administration felt a 2027 timeline of a possible invasion was more appropriate. So this is a big issue that no US administration has had an easy answer for. When it comes to China and Russia, there are never any easy answers. Hubris always wins?
The bottom line here for traders? Three things. Don’t react to a trader who has put $120k on “Yes,” remember that this is a long-term trade (365+ days), and that China’s growth has slowed immensely. Chinese exports recently had their worst downturn since February.
Simply put, invading Taiwan is not a smart thing to do, just as Russia invading Ukraine was a massive blunder by Putin. To date, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that there were over 1,147,740 Russian “combat losses” of killed and wounded Russian soldiers.
It’s always easier to defend an island than it is to invade an island. And this would also essentially be declaring a war against the US, who has strong ties to Taiwan. Wars and invading countries are never good things and only lead to future human and economic hardships. Trade wisely.
When Will This Government Shutdown Finally End?
We were all young when this US government shutdown started and now we can see Thanksgiving on the calendar and these polywogs in Washington, DC still can’t find common ground as the record-setting shutdown enters its 42nd day.
On Friday, top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer offered his latest plan to Republicans in an effort to get the government back to work again, but the GOP quickly dismissed the proposal which hinged on protecting Affordable Care Act subsidies for at least one year.
Traders who have banked on this never-ending shutdown never ending have been spot on, and looking at the How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?, the sentiment seems to be that they might finally have to come to some agreement this week. But we thought that last week also.
Here was the Kalshi trading breakdown in this market on Monday, Day 41 of the shutdown:
More than 40 days | 99% | Yes, No 1¢ |
More than 41 days | 98% | Yes 98¢, No 3¢ |
More than 42 days | 90% | Yes 90¢, No 11¢ |
More than 43 days | 60% | Yes 60¢, No 41¢ |
More than 44 days | 34% | Yes 35¢, No 66¢ |
More than 45 days | 19% | Yes 19¢, No 82¢ |
More than 46 days | 13% | Yes 13¢, No 88¢ |
More than 47 days | 7% | Yes 10¢, No 94¢ |
More than 48 days | 8% | Yes 10¢, No 92¢ |
More than 49 days | 5% | Yes 9¢, No 94¢ |
More than 50 days | 5% | Yes 7¢, No 95¢ |
More than 51 days | 3% | Yes 6¢, No 96¢ |
More than 52 days | 3% | Yes 5¢, No 97¢ |
Over at Polymarket, traders in the When Will the Government Shutdown End? have four-day windows they can trade in, and the November 12-15 market is where they see possible resolution, with an 85% chance of that outcome and traders heavily buying “Yes” contracts.
At Kalshi, total volume in the “How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?” trade was at $48,831,275 while at Polymarket, the volume in the “When Will the Government Shutdown End?” was at $22,236,067, but remember these are two different markets and Polymarket hasn’t relaunched yet in the US.
With nightmare delays and cancellations at airports, and SNAP recipients seeing their fate (and future food) now in the hands of President Trump and the Supreme Court, this November has started out chaotic and many may have limited Thanksgivings with some possibly avoiding traveling to see relatives because of this current mess.
But hopes of ending the shutdown started late Sunday night and early Monday morning with the Senate voting 60-40 on a key part to reopening the government.
The deal was hatched when a group of eight Democrats reached a deal with the White House and Senate GOP for a future vote on the enhanced Affordable Care subsidies. So will we finally see this bureaucratic nonsense end later this week? We can hope, but stubbornness has ruled up until now.
Sportsbook Titans Looking to Open Prediction Market
In another prediction market traders need to weigh in the time parameters, Kalshi’s “Will DraftKings Launch a Prediction Market in 2025?” has seen some wavering lately with the chances going from 51% (Friday) to 48% (Monday). Why? Simply because the clock is ticking toward 2026.
Sportsbook Titans
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins recently said the company would be offering sports event contracts “in many states” in the “coming months,” and that’s where the heart of this particular trade lies. When is when?
Last month, DraftKings revealed it had acquired the prediction market Railbird, already registered with the Community Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), opening the way into prediction markets. DK will offer DraftKing Predictions, but hasn’t said yet if they will offer sports. They will.
Are Prediction Markets the New Best Election Forecasting Tool?
Looking at the Polymarket Global Elections calendar, you can see who will more than likely be in power in upcoming elections in Chile, Tonga, and Portugal with the Czech Republic, Argentina, and the Netherlands all wrapping up major voting in October.
Taking a look at that November 16 Presidential general election in the South American nation of Chile, we see that José Antonio Kast (71%) will be the presumed winner unless Jeannette Jara (15%), Johannes Kaiser (12%), or longshot Evelyn Matthei (2%) can somehow capture the vote.
Global Elections Calendar
The current president of Chile is Gabriel Boric, the country’s youngest leader ever and its 37th President. The now 39-year-old Boric—a leftist and former student protest leader—is not eligible for another 4-year term under Chile’s constitution.
Using prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket is a great way for traders, journalists, and the common man to get a glimpse into which way elections are turning worldwide.
What Price Will Crypto Hyperliquid Hit in November?
Polymarket always has interesting markets served up on its Crypto page and the What Price Will Hyperliquid Hit in November? is an interesting offering where traders can get in on where the price of Hyperliquid (HYPE32191-USD) will be this month.
In early trading on Monday, Hyperliquid—a decentralized exchange (DEX) for tradies and other activities in the ecosystem the HYPE crtptocurrency—was trading at $41.53 after what can only be defined as a price rollercoaster ride in 2025.
Crypto Hyperliquid
The 52-week range of Hyperliquid is from a low of $3.20 (Nov. 28, 2024) to a high of $59.39 (Sept. 17, 2025). Polymarket traders backing the ↓40 outcome have already seen their “Yes” contracts resolved, but we still have 20 days left in November and the trading sentiment is mixed.
The ↑50 price range is the bullish take, with traders give Hyperliquid a 53% chance of rising another $10 in the next 20 days, followed by the more bullish trade that the cryptocurrency will fall a little, and back into the ↓30 range (16%).
Following in the trader’s chance order of the highly popular company in the DeFi community with its Layer 1 blockchain are ↑60 (11%), ↓20 (4%), and ↑70 (4%).
Where Will Stephen Colbert Work Next This Year?
After announcing the end of “The Late Show” franchise on July 17, 2025, which saw David Letterman (1993-2015) birth the best late night talk show since Johnny Carson, Stephen Colbert said The Late Show with Stephen Colbert would come to a sad end in May of 2026.
With an acerbic wit, no doubt Colbert will end up somewhere soon, and he has undoubtedly been in talks with networks and streaming services. Prediction market traders can trade on “Where Will Stephen Colbert Work Next This Year?” and this is one of those fun, wide-open markets.
For now.
As we start another week, HBO/Max (16), Apple TV+ (10%), SiriusXM (9%), Netflix (8%), MSNBC (7%), NBC (7%), CNN (4%), and Comedy Central (2%), and were the possible Colbert employers.
Stephen Colbert
Looking at the above graph, you can see that there was a huge spike (85.9%) from Netflix money in this market on September 25, but since then, Netflix “Yes” in this market has plummeted 60%.
What happened? Colbert made a joke about Netflix after announcing The Late Show’s cancellation and rumors started flying, as they quickly do in this age of social media, and some rushed to buy Netflix “Yes.” When the rumors were quashed, it fell back to the level it is now, the fourth favorite.
Colbert worked at Comedy Central for over two decades, including popular shows The Daily Show (1997-2005) and The Colbert Report (2005-2014) before heading the The Late Show in 2015.
Grammys Best New Artist Winner Anyone’s Guess For Now
Like the Colbert market, this one is another wide-open and fun trade that seems like a guessing game for now with a number of new artists vying for the Grammys: Best New Artist Winner.
The three favorites at Polymarket are Leon Thomas (31%), Olivia Dean (22%), and sombr (20%).
But acts like Lola Young (13%), The Marias (10%), Addison Rae (7%), and KATSEYE (3%) are all in the running for this award according to prediction market trading.
Last year, it was Victoria Monét who won the 2024 Grammy for Best New Artist, beating out new talents like Jelly Roll, Ice Spice, Gracie Abrams, Fred again.., Coco Jones, Noah Kahan, and The War And Treaty.
Getting in early on Leon Thomas III “Yes” contracts (+5%) might not be a bad idea in November. Why? The 32-year-old R&B singer has the No. 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100™ now with “Mutt.” But sombr (“back to friends,” #12) and Olivia Dean (“So Easy,” #44) are also currently in the Top 50.
Two Pivotal Games in MACtion on Wednesday Night
You know the NCAAF Regular Season is rounding the corner when the Mid-American Conference (MAC) starts playing games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and that’s where we are again with 2025 suddenly more than 85 percent done and Christmas songs suddenly being heard on the TV.
On Wednesday, there are three MAC games, all kicking off at 7 pm EST (4 PST), with two that will matter in the standings and one that won’t. That will be Northern Illinois at Massachusetts (ESPNU) in a good game to take the road team. At Kalshi, NIU is at 79% with UMass at 21%.
Central Michigan welcomes Buffalo to Kelly/Shorts Stadium (FieldTurf) in Mount Pleasant, Michigan in a game between two teams surprisingly fighting to win the conference. At Kalshi, the Chippewas are predicted to win (53%) with the underdog Bulls getting some love (47%).
Toledo heads to Yager Stadium (FieldTurf) in Oxford, Ohio to face Miami (OH) at the Cradle of Coaches (ESPN2) in another battle of schools fighting for the MAC title. Traders at Kalsi are investing in the Rockets (59%) to ground the RedHawks (41%).
The 2025 MAC Championship Game is scheduled to be held at Ford Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Detroit, Michigan on Saturday, December 6 (ESPN, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST). Ohio trounced Miami (OH) in the 2024 MAC Championship Game, 38-3, the Bobcats first MAC title since 1968.
Improved Patriots Welcome Jets to Foxboro on Thursday
NFL MVP candidate Drake Maye and the vastly improved Patriots (8-2-0) welcome the Jets (2-7-0) to Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts for a big AFC East Week 11 showdown on Thursday night (Prime Video, 8:15 EST/5:15 PST).
Traders in the Kalshi prediction market like New England (85%) over New York (15%) in this one, which sees the hosts leading the division and the visitors sitting in last place. In the last 10 series meetings, the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! are an abysmal 2-16-0 in the last 18 vs New England.
Over that span (2016-2024), the Patriots reeled off 13 straight wins vs Gang Green, but New York has won two of the last three meetings, but in the last collision, New England won 25-22 here at The Razor on October 27, 2024. Lifetime, the Patriots lead the series 75-56-1.
Two Teams Fighting For CFP Spots in Action on Friday
There are only two games on the NCAAF slate on Friday evening, but traders on prediction markets will be active with both games from Power Conferences and involving schools fighting to make the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP).
The first one sees No. 15 Louisville (7-1, 4-1 in ACC) welcoming QB Cade Klubnik and Clemson (3-5, 2-4 in ACC) to L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (FieldTurf Revolution) in Louisville, Kentucky in a nice Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) battle (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST).
NCAAF traders at Kalshi are behind QB Miller Moss and host Louisville (61%) over Clemson (39%) with the Cardinals 3.5-point favorites over the Tigers with the Total (Over/Under) at 51.5.
The second game will see No. 9 Oregon opening the doors of Autzen Stadium (Grass) in Eugene, Oregon for Minnesota in a primetime Big Ten Conference mismatch (FOX, 9EST/8 CST/6 PST).
Kalshi NCAAF traders are heavily behind Oregon (93%) against Minnesota (7%) and with QB Dante Moore and the Ducks flying in with an 8-1 record (5-1 in Big Ten) with the Golden Gophers at 6-3 (4-2 in Big Ten). The Point Spread is Oregon -23.5 points with the Total at a low 47.5.
This will be the first time that Oregon has played Minnesota as members of the Big Ten with the only other meeting between these two schools coming in the 2003 Sun Bowl where the Golden Gophers defeated the Ducks.
Big SEC Showdown on Saturday Night in Athens
The first College Football Playoff (CFP) Top 25 came out last week and the projected 12-team playoff saw No. 11-ranked Texas the first team out with two fellow SEC schools, No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 4 Alabama looking to have first round byes in the NCAA Football DI tournament.
Another SEC heavyweight, No. 5 Georgia, made the cut as did No. 6 Ole Miss. So the big question is can QB Arch Manning and the Longhorns top the Dawgs when the two meet at Sanford Stadium (Tifton 419 Bermuda Grass) on Saturday night in Athens, Georgia (ABC, 7:30 EST/4:30 EST).
College Football Playoff
College football traders at Kalshi are sort of split on this SEC collision, with host Georgia (8-1) at 65% and visitors Texas (7-2) at 35% six days before kickoff in the Lone Star State capital. Oddsmakers have made the Bulldogs 6.5-point favorites over the Longhorns (46.5).
With Texas just joining the Southeastern Conference (SEC) in 2024, these two haven’t met much on the gridiron but they did play twice last year, including a classic at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta in the 2024 SEC Championship Game, 22-19, winning in overtime in the Peach State.
Georgia also bounced Texas in the Regular Season, winning 30-15 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on October 19, 2024. Despite the fact the Longhorns need a win here more than the Uga and the Dawgs, this one is in Athens and the homefield advantage should be the determining factor. Woof.
UFC 322 Grapples on Saturday Night in The Big Apple
There are only four UFC events left on the 2025 MMA schedule after this past weekend’s UFC Fight Night, the next being UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev, scheduled for Saturday, November 15 at Madison Square Garden (FX, ESPNews, ESPN+, Disney+, PPV, 6 EST/3 PST).
Long-term MMA traders at Kalshi in the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? market are behind Islam Makhachev (57%), followed by his opponent this weekend, Jack Della Maddalena (27%), Sean Brady (17%), Shavkat Rakhmonov (16%, +8%), Ian Machado Garry (10%), and Michael Morales (4%).
UFC
Heading into Saturday’s Main Event in the Big Apple, Makhachev is 27-1-0 with Della Maddalena sporting an 18-2-0 record. Makhachev has won 15 straight bouts and has not lost in more than 10 years.
If you are seeking some expert MMA and UFC advice from a respected professional gambler to help your prediction market trading in this elbow-filled niche, Lou Finocchiaro—GambLou on Twitter—is a must-follow.