Could This Be Longest US Government Shutdown Ever?
The US government shut down on Oct. 1 and prediction market Polymarket has a number of Yes-No outcome trading markets relating to this latest funding gap in Washington, DC which has reached 10 days today.
One of those markets is (Could the) Current Shutdown Longest in US History? which saw “Yes” contracts at 30¢ on October 9 which the “No” favored at 73¢. Since 1976, there have been 20 major funding gaps with this the 11th resulting in a government shutdown.
The longest government shutdown was in 2018-19 and lasted 35 days when Congress couldn’t agree on funding for President Trump’s border wall. Shutdowns were rare from 1955 to 2013 (0) but we have now seen four in the last 12 years.
Shutdown End?
And this one may last with Polymarket traders giving it a 84% chance of it lasting to October 15 or later (Yes 84¢, No 17¢) in the When Will the Government Shutdown End? market with the public pricing in the House-Senate dysfunction and leaning to a later resolution.
Setting a new US government shutdown record in days will mean this one must last until the month of November and that seems like a real possibility now with much stubbornness on both sides and no sight of a middle ground or current path for both the House and the Senate.
The amount of pressure the president decides to put on Congress will also come into play in any resolution and it seems for now, he is content on letting the shutdown continue, blaming the Democrats for the political impasse.
ICE Makes a $2 Billion Investment in Polymarket
On Tuesday, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the 233-year-old New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced it was investing $2 billion into prediction market Polymarket.
The link between Wall Street and the popularity of prediction markets prompted the move with ICE’s rivals Robinhood and Interactive Brokers already having offerings in prediction markets.
As part of its investment into Polymarket, ICE will give the company’s prediction market data to institutional investors.
“Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream," Polymarket CEO and Founder Shayne Coplan said. "Together, we're expanding how individuals and institutions use probabilities to understand and price the future."
How High Will Bitcoin Get in 2025?
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) established yet another all-time high, passing the $125,000 mark and hitting $125,835.92 over the weekend before easing back to $123,490.02 early Thursday.
You can see how bullish prediction market traders are about Bitcoin’s eventual end-point when the calendar turns to 2026 in Kalshi’s How High Will Bitcoin Get This Year?
How High Will Bitcoin get?
Contracts at the $130,000 or above mark were given a 78% chance (Yes 82¢, No 22¢) of cashing, so you can see the optimism while at the $140,000 or above mark level, traders saw a 53% chance (Yes 54¢, No 48¢) with a bullish $150,000 or above at 36% chance (Yes 37¢, No 67¢).
Bitcoin levels of $160,000 or above by Dec. 31, 2025 had a 24% chance (Yes 25¢, No 78¢) on Oct. 10, with $170,000 or above (16%), $180,000 or above (12%), $190,000 or above (10%), and $200,000 or above (6%) all seeing small interest.
And there are even “Yes” contract buyers at $225,000 or above (5%), $250,000 or above (4%), $300,000 or above (3%), and $500,000 or above (2%).
What Price Will Gold Close at in 2025?
At Polymarket in the What Price Will Gold Close at in 2025? market, traders are pretty darn sure that Gold COMEX will end the year above the $3,200+ (96%, Yes 97.8¢, No 5.0¢) level, and that’s not saying much with the precious metal already trading above $4,000 an ounce on October 7.
Gold continues to set new records every week and $5,000 can’t be that far away with this momentum. Traders at Kalshi in the Will Gold Outperform Bitcoin This Year? market gave Gold a 75% chance of doing better than the popular cryptocurrency this year.
In the $3,000 to $3,100 (1%), and $3,100 to $3,200 (1%) trading levels, dead “Yes” money probably sits as it’s extremely hard to see Gold suddenly falling $800 to $1,000 an ounce after October, November, and December have ended.
Traders Pessimistic About 2025 MetaMask Token Launch
Polymarket traders in the Will MetaMask Launch a Token in 2025? market are a bit down on the possibility the world’s largest software cryptocurrency hot wallet would be launching tokens this year, with only a 18% chance Yes 18¢, No 83¢) being given on October 10.
Ahead of this much-anticipated launch and MASK Token Airdrop, MetaMask—used to interact with the Ethereum blockchain—announced a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens with benefits for the platform’s long-time users.
Traders on the prediction market were much more optimistic about a MetaMask token launch earlier in the year with “Yes” trading hitting a high of 57% on both Sept. 24 and Sept. 28 before nosediving below 50% and to its current depths.
Who Will Win Dancing With the Stars Season 34?
One of the most popular shows on TV, ABC’s Dancing With the Stars, just celebrated 20 years on the air, and the ratings continue to be relevant with the show always strong in the Nielsen ratings and getting better numbers (as always) than anything that isn’t sports.
Heading into Tuesday night’s (ABC, Disney+, 8 ET/PT) episode, four celebrities had already been eliminated in Baron Davis, Corey Feldman, Lauren Jauregul, and Hilaria Baldwin, leaving a field of 10 dancers left who could win the show.
Who Will Win Dancing With The Stars Season 34?
Kalshi’s Who Will Win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? traders like Robert Irwin (46% chance to win season, Yes 46¢, No 63¢) and Whitney Leavitt (42%, Yes 43¢, No 64¢), followed by Alix Earle (12% chance, Yes 23¢, No 87¢) and Jordan Chiles (8% chance, Yes 14¢, No 92¢) and Dylan Efron (2% chance, Yes 9¢, No 98¢).
Traders were giving Danielle Fishel, Scott Hoying, Andy Richter, Elaine Hendrix, and Jenn Affleck all less than a 1% of winning Season 34. The Dancing With the Stars finale will air on Tuesday, November 25, 2025 at 8 pm ET/PT on ABC and Disney+.
Current traders favorite Irwin, an Australian conservationist, is partnered with Witney Carson while The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives cast member Leavitt is paired with Mark Ballas who has won three seasons of DWTS (Mirrorball Trophy Season 6, Season 8, Season 31).
Who Will Win Survivor Season 49?
CBS’s smash reality competition hit Survivor saw Season 49 premier on Wednesday, September 24 and we have already seen three contestants have their torches extinguished in Kele tribe members Nicole Mazullo (Day 3), Kimberly "Annie" Davis (Day 5), and Jeremiah Ing (Day 6).
Another contestant, Jake Latimer, had to be medically evacuated under a doctor’s recommendation after receiving a dry bite (no venom) from a highly venomous banded sea krait snake in the last episode, leaving the frazzled Kele tribe with just two members.
After the third eviction, traders in Kalshi’s Who Will Win Survivor Season 49? prediction market tribal council were backing only three players to win this season, so because this is a taped program, it makes you really wonder if some people already know who the final three will be.
As of Thursday, October 9, those three were heavy favorite and Uli tribe members Savannah Louie (63%, Yes 73¢, No 33¢) and Rizo Velovic (12%, Yes 12¢, No 89¢), and Kele tribe member Sophia Balerdi (9%, Yes 10¢, No 99¢).
Who Will Win Survivor Season 49?
Castaways Jaseon Treul, Alex Moore, Steven Ramm, Matt Williams, Jawan Pitts, Sage Ahrens-Nichols, Michelle Chukwujekwu, Shannon Fairweather, Kristina Mills and Sophie Segreti were all trading under 1%.
The date for the Survivor Season 49 finale will likely be Wednesday, December 17 (CBS, 8 ET/PT). The much-anticipated Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans will make its debut in Spring 2026.
Kalshi Traders Liking Spain in 2026 FIFA World Cup
Every four years we get a FIFA World Cup and it’s the Men’s turn to kick around the sheep’s bladder in this quadrennium. Argentina and living legend Lionel Messi won the last World Cup in Qatar in 2022, defeating France in the Final in dramatic fashion in a penalty kick shootout.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held here in the US and in the 2026 Men's World Cup Winner? market at Kalshi, traders are torn between Spain (16% chance, Yes 16¢, No 86¢) and France (12%, Yes 14¢, No 88¢) to take home the world’s most famous trophy next summer.
Following those two European soccer powerhouses were Brazil (11%), England (11%), defending champions Argentina (8%), Germany (8%), Portugal (8%), Netherlands (4%), Uruguay (4%), USA (3%), and Italy (2%).
Spain in 2026 FIFA World Cup
This could be the last World Cup for at least one star of his national team. Portuguese legend and team captain Cristiano Ronaldo is 40 years old now, but in excellent shape as always and still playing for Al-Nassr FC in the Saudi Pro League.
Kalshi is offering a Will Cristiano Ronaldo Play in the World Cup? market and 83% of traders were backing that CR7 would appear on Seleção das Quinas roster next summer.
Cristiano Ronaldo
Lionel Messi helped Argentina win the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and the 38-year-old midfield maestro said Qatar would be his last one playing for La Albiceleste, but like all great athletes and rock stars, Messi seems to be itching to play again in 2026, saying, ”We’ll see” this summer when asked about playing again.
And like Messi, German GK Manuel Neuer said Qatar was it for him, after 124 appearances for the national team and a win in the 2014 FIFA World Cup. But with Marc-Andre ter Stegen injured, DFB Elf needs him and at age 39, the ageless Bayern Munich GK may still play in this World Cup.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place in the US, Canada, and Mexico and will run from June 11 to July 19. It will be the first World Cup ever to be hosted by three nations.
Will FIFA Pull the 2026 World Cup Out of the USA?
Some prediction market companies offer trading in markets that seem to cater to the conspiracy crowd, and Kalshi’s Will FIFA Pull the World Cup Out of the USA? is certainly one of those.
But the chances given by traders of the international governing body of Soccer of pulling out of this coming summer’s 2026 FIFA World Cup from the US has remained solidly under 10% and sat firmly at 9% on Thursday, Oct. 9.
FIFA
When researching prediction trading markets, it’s important to look at as many sources as possible, but always beware of the credibility of the source and the possible motivations for “information” given on Tweets like seen in the Miley Cyrus Super Bowl Halftime tweet.
This poster (below) on Twitter—whose political affiliations are shared in her bio—was given the old Community Warning for using a headline saying “FIFA MAY MOVE 2026 WORLD CUP GAMES FROM US TO CANADA OVER IMMIGRATION CONCERNS!”
Even at such high “No” prices, locking in that the World Cup won’t be pulled for the US is a no-brainer with all of the logistical, travel, and ticket realities locked in for months and even longer in some cases. The sky is not falling.
Who Will Win the 2025 Chicago Marathon?
Kalshi has a deep Unique Markets menu and the 2025 Bank of America Men's Chicago Marathon winner is one of them although the trading volume as of October 9 was just $4,595.
The race is on Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 7:20 am CST with the start and finish line in Grant Park. You can watch the 2025 Chicago Marathon on NBC 5 Chicago and Telemundo Chicago.
2025 Chicago Marathon
Traders liked 28-year-old Kenyan John Korir (49% chance to win, Yes 48¢, No 62¢), followed by Ugandan Jacob Kiplimo (25%, Yes 33¢, No 74¢), and Kenyan Timothy Kiplagat (18%).
Kenyans have won the last three Chicago Marathons in the Men’s Division, including favorite Korir who won the race last year with a time of 2:02.43, his first win ever in the Windy City.
NASCAR South Point 400 This Sunday in Las Vegas
Race #33 of the NASCAR Cup Series season comes Sunday with the running of the 2025 South Point 400 from the Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada (USA, 2:30 EST/11:30 PST).
This the first of three Round of 8 races with Talladega (Round 34) and Martinsville (Round 35) following Sin City and leading up to the big NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona on November 2 (NBC, 3 EDT/12 PDT).
NASCAR
Kalshi traders in the South Point 400 Winner? market were backing Christopher Bell at 16% (Yes 17¢, No 84¢), Kyle Larson at 16% (Yes 19¢, No 84¢), points leader Denny Hamlin at 15% (Yes 15¢, No 87¢), and Ryan Blaney at 13% (Yes 13¢, No 89¢), on October 9, three days before the race.
Following in the South Point 400 Winner market were Chase Briscoe (12%), William Byron (9%), Chase Elliott (9%), Tyler Reddick (3%) with last year’s winner of the race and NASCAR Cup Series Joey Logano getting less than 1%.
AFC Champ Chiefs Hosting Lions in Week 6 Showdown
Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St Brown, and the Detroit Lions (4-1-0) head to Arrowhead Stadium (NorthBridge Bermuda Grass) to Kansas City, Missouri on Sunday to face Patrick Mahomes and the AFC champion Chiefs (2-3-0) on Sunday Night Football (NBC, 8:15 EDT/5:15 PDT).
In NFL Week 5 play, the Lions defeated the Joe Burrow-less Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, 37-24, leading all the way while the Chiefs were upset by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Monday Night Football, 31-28.
Traders in the Kalshi football NFL market are giving Kansas City a 54% chance of winning this NFL Regular Season Week 6 interconference delight with Detroit at 46% with the Total at (Over 52.5 points scored, Yes 51¢, No 51¢). The Chiefs “Yes" to win by over 2.5 points was 50¢ (No 51¢).
In the five meetings between these two teams, the Lions are 3-2-0, winning the last meeting on September 23, 2023 at Arrowhead Stadium, 21-20. Going under the game’s 52.5 Total in sportsbooks after the first four series meetings all were high-scoring Overs.
Sunday Night FOOTBALL
Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.