Profited $436,760 From $32,537 of Trade in Capture
A US Special Forces member involved in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was arrested on April 22 after the Fort Bragg-stationed soldier allegedly traded on Polymarket on the eventual removal of Maduro before news of the successful raid earlier this year was made public.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke reportedly bet over $33,000 on 13 different Venezuela-related contracts and profited more than $436,000 from knowing what he knew when he knew it. Prosecutors in the Justice Department say that Van Dyke opened the account on December 26, 2025.
On January 3, 2026, Maduro and wife Cilia Flores were captured by US Special Forces in Operation Absolute Resolve. Law enforcement already had eyes on the suspicious trades before the capture. Van Dyke bought ‘Yes’ at 7% in the Maduro Out by January 31, 2026? market in his biggest trade.
The Justice Department said in a press release Van Dyke was involved in the planning and the execution of the operation. After the capture, Van Dyke allegedly sent his over $400K of PM market profits to a crypto account before transferring the money to an online brokerage account.
"Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain," said Jay Clayton, US Attorney in the Southern District of New York.
"The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the US Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law."
The 38-year-old Van Dyke was charged with wire fraud, commodities fraud, unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, engaging in monetary transactions from unlawful activity, and theft of non-public government information.
President: “Never Much in Favor” of Prediction Markets
After the announcement of the arrest of Gannon Ken Van Dyke on April 22 for alleged insider trading on the Maduro capture, reporters questioned US President Donald Trump on the then-breaking news and the Commander in Chief responded exactly as you would think he would.
"The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what's going on all over the world in Europe and every place they're doing these betting things, I was never much in favor of it," Trump said when asked about prediction markets after the Van Dyke arrest.
Last year, Trump nominated Michael Selig to serve as the 16th Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC), and it has been pretty much a pro-prediction market agency and administration as anyone watching with two eyes and a functioning brain can see.
When Polymarket was cleared to return to the US, former Atlantic City, NJ casino owner and builderTrump was receptive to the news—CEO Shayne Coplan was at the White House—and the administration has been keen on federal oversight of PMs as opposed to state bans and regulation.
Donald Trump Jr. is a member of the board of both Kalshi and Polymarket and he is also a partner in 1789 Capital, the firm that invested in Polymarket, Peter Thiel, a big backer of Vice President JD Vance, is also a key PM investor through his venture capital firm, Founders Fund, in Polymarket.
Trump suddenly saying he was “never much in favor” of prediction markets seems like a knee-jerk response to a reporter’s question on something he probably has little comprehension about. He called them “predictive markets.” They are, but still. So, can we trade on if he pardons Van Dyke?
Trump Slams Prediction Markets Despite Having One
Even though President Trump said on April 23 that he said he was “never much in favor of” prediction markets, our Commander in Chief still had time to tout that his social media platform Truth Social social media platform had a prediction market built into it.
Created by the Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), Truth Social offers Truth Predict for users to trade on events like sports, political elections, and inflation with the trades via Cryptocom’s North America Derivatives (CDNA).
The news of the Special Forces soldier being arrested for insider trading at Polymarket may have caught the soon-to-be 80-year-old Trump off guard, but he did himself no favors distancing himself from platforms definitely strengthened by him being in the White House and supporting them.
So he has a prediction market but doesn’t like them? We hope this doesn’t hold true for his job, his wife, and the democracy he is in charge of at 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue. The amount of money the Trump family has made from prediction markets cannot be ignored either. His words are hollow.
The president “never much in favor of” prediction markets who helped them to a meteoric rise both with his record-setting 2024 Presidential Election Winner markets which put PMs on the map, but also with his support as was evident when he backed Polymarket’s return to this space.
And the president “never much in favor of” prediction markets who embraced the gambling industry for decades has a son with almost the exact name as him—Donald Trump Jr.— and who is connected to three separate prediction markets in Kalshi, Polymarket, and Truth Predict.
They say that the apple never falls far from the tree. Neither does the orange apparently...
Minnesota and Wisconsin Going to Battle with PMs
Two states in the Midwest, Minnesota and Wisconsin, are currently at war with prediction markets in their own different ways.
In the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the traditional liberal blue state that brought up one purple Prince and the Juicy Lucy cheeseburger—”it’s like a fondue in a burger”—we just saw Senator Matt Klein of Mendota Heights fined $540 and banned for betting $50 on Polymarket last October.
So there is now a movement in the State Capitol in Saint Paul to ban prediction markets so theoretically no one living in this frigid state will be able to bet or trade on anything legally—sports gambling is illegal there— but the Minnesota State Lottery. Can we please bring Prince back?
Across the border in America’s Dairyland, where Wisconsin became the 33rd state in the union to legalize sports gambling last month. Since 2021, the only place a person could place a sports bet was at one of the state’s tribal casinos. So with sportsbooks waiting now finally legal, PM’s have poor timing in Wisconsin.
On April 24, the Wisconsin Department of Justice (DOJ) and Attorney General Josh Kaul sued prediction markets, charging them with allowing illegal sports betting in the state, so the beat of the drums heard out West in Arizona and Nevada is now also beating very loudly in Wisconsin.
The state filed three lawsuits claiming the prediction markets were “working together to facilitate illegal sports betting throughout the state.” We giggle together now. As if Kalshi and Polymarket got together and said one day “Hey, let’s f--- with Wisconsin.” Lawyers love their own narratives.
“Except in limited circumstances, sports betting and other forms of commercial gambling have long been illegal in the state of Wisconsin,” Kaul said in a news conference. “No company is above this law, no matter how creatively those companies try to disguise the activity that they’re engaged in.”
Blah, blah,blah. The battle between states and regulation of prediction markets continues. This may end up in the US Supreme Court one day but maybe by then the masses will tire of trading unless making money. Or maybe both will be legal and regulated by the government? Stay tuned.
It’s hard to see states with legalized sports betting ever being forced to give that industry and that power to the federal government, a semi-intelligent gang of fools wearing ties and pantsuits who were reportedly set to spend $50 million for condoms in Gaza. We live in a movie. A very bad one.
Who Will Be Featured on Drake’s Upcoming ‘Iceman’?
There has been much anticipation over the upcoming album Iceman from Canadian rapper Drake, with the 9th studio album from the 39-year-old set to drop on Friday, May 15 after he unveiled the record’s release date in a hidden message in an ice sculpture like a character in a James Bond film.
At Kalshi, you can bet on who will be featured on this upcoming album and the list is longer than the phonebook in some small Mississippi towns although I have never been to the Magnolia State and am abusing my journalistic license in this Cyberspace corner where we talk about The Future.
Artists traders see likely on Iceman are Central Cee (75%), Future (68%), 21 Savage(65%), PARTYNEXTDOOR (64%), Sexxy Redd (64%), Yeat (64%), Young Thug (61%), EsDeeKid (51%), are lollipop manLil Wayne (49%), and the highest in the room Travis Scott (48%).
Others heavy ‘Yes’ trades to feature on the album—which will no doubt debut at #1—Pimmie (46%), Teezo Touchdown (42%), YEBBA (42%), PinkPanthress (39%), Morgan Wallen (38%),Tory Lanez (31%), Lil Yachty (29%), Big Sean (27%), Nicki Minaj (27%), and churchmouse Kanye West (26%).
Bad Bunny (24%), J. Cole (24%), Playboi Carti (23%), SZA (20%), Ty Dolla $ign (19%), Justin Bieber (15%), DJ Khaled (14%), The Game (9%), Metro Boomin (8%), and Kendrick Lamar (4%) round out this market which had $275,243 in volume on April 29, some three weeks from release.
They say there are no such things as ‘locks’ in sports gambling and prediction markets, but the 'No’ in this market with Kendrick Lamar (98¢) is about as sure a bet you will make in your life as we will never see a snake and a mongoose getting along. Trading Picks: Kanye West, No 74¢, Future, No 54¢
What NFL Player Will Be on the Madden NFL 27 Cover?
Traders at Kalshi made a quick right turn in the Who Will Be on the Cover of Madden NFL 27?
Markets, making Bears QB Caleb Williams (88%) a prohibitive favorite in the exchange for the video game expected to be released on either August 21 or August 28, 2026,
Following Williams? Patriots QB Drake Maye (18%), Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (17%), Packers LB Myles Garrett (12%), Rams QB Matthew Stafford (8%), Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (6%), Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (6%), Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (5%), and Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (5%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Someone seems to know something with the Chicago signal caller looking like a sure thing at Kalshi, after other NFC guys like Stafford, Darnold, and his Seattle teammate Smith-Njigba, but some say EA Sports (EA Orlando) wants a younger vibe. ➤Trading Pick: None
2026 American League Manager of the Year Market
We continue or look at the Futures award markets and in this edition, we will look at both the 2026 American League (AL) Manager of the Year Winner market and the 2026 National League (NL) Manager of the Year Winner market (below).
Last year, Cleveland Guardians skipper Stephen Vogt won the award in the AL with Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers taking the honor in the Senior Circuit as both teams won their respective Central divisions.
At Robinhood, the A’s Mark Kotsay (20¢), the Cleveland Guardians Stephen Vogt (15¢), the Miami Marlins Skip Schumaker (12¢), the Tampa Bay Rays Kevin Cash (9¢), and the Toronto Blue Jays John Schneider (7¢) a month into the new season in the limited 5-man market on April 25.
➤Trading Thoughts: It is still way too early to be putting any money into this market unless you strongly feel you have an edge or are just a homer wanting to back your own team’s manager. If you’re serious about betting on the AL Manager of the Year Winner, there are better markets.
At Kalshi, you can find almost all of the AL skippers listed and there we also find the Athletics Kotsay as the leader (20%) followed by the same three guys. Like last year, it seems the Junior Circuit isn’t as strong as the NL, so this race will be interesting.
The Red Sox got off to a lousy start (9-17) and have only one way to go in this marathon 122-game season. With a nice group of kids like Roman Anthony, Payton Tolle, and Connelly Early, Cora has some talent, but this team has been horrid at the plate.
If Seattle can start hitting, maybe Dan Wilson (4%) can win this or if a young Boston team can shake off a shitty start and make the Postseason from the AL East, possibly Alex Cora (<0%). Only the Yankees have had a start worth chirping about. ➤Trading Pick: Aaron Boone, Yes 10¢ (Kalshi)
2026 National League Manager of the Year Market
The 2026 National League Manager of the Year Winner market is just as wide open as the AL market and it’s also way too early to really lock in, four teams from the Senior Circuit not named the Los Angeles Dodgers got off to some pretty decent starts in this 2025 MLB Regular Season.
Two teams from the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds, both got off to 17-9 starts with the former winning 10 straight games as of April 24 after rallying to beat the Dodgers—also 17-9 after the loss to Chicago—at Chavez Ravine.
Cubs Manager Craig Counsell was at 11% at Kalshi even after the nice win streak with Cardinals skipper Terry Francona at 15%. Leading the trading in that prediction market at Kalshi was the Pittsburgh Pirates Don Kelly (29%) and the Atlanta Braves Walt Weiss (22%).
The NL East’s Atlanta Braves (19-8 start, best in MLB) and the NL West’s San Diego Padres (17-8 start) also are off to very pleasant starts with the pitching coming through for both. So there seem to be six pretty good teams in the NL (LA-SD-ATL-CHI-CIN-MIL) and just one in the AL (NYY) now.
➤Trading Thoughts: The NL race is too tough to call and way too crowded and Dave Roberts will never get enough credit guiding the Dodgers, but then again, they never seem to drive in fifth gear in the Regular Season. That means trying to find a value-laden winner in the NL is a tough thing.
The Cubs have been on a roll, but the Central is a snake pit. Rivals Milwaukee are always clutch and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are on the rise. With elite Relief Pitching and a narrative of stopping and topping LA, my thoughts are SD and Craig Stammen (11%). ➤Trading Pick: Craig Stammen, Yes 10¢
Dodgers, Ohtani in the Gateway City on Saturday Night
FOX will be serving up two regionally televised games on Saturday night, with viewers either getting the Texas at Detroit game from Comerica Park or the World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis from Busch Stadium (MLB.TV, 7:15 EDT/6:15 CDT/4:15 PDT).
The scheduled Starters for these games were RHP Kumar Rocker (1-1, 3.48 ERA) for the Rangers and and RHP Keider Montero (1-2, 3.68 ERA) and struggling RHP Rōki Sasaki (0-2, 6.11 ERA) for the Dodgers vs RHP Dustin May (1-2, 5.48) for the Redbirds. May played for LA from 2019-2025.
In the 2026 Pro Baseball Championmarket at Kalshi, the ‘Yes’ contracts give Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers (30.2%) a better chance of winning the World Series again than the next four teams combined, with the Tigers at 4.9%, the Rangers at 2.4%,and the Cardinals only 0.5% on April 25.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the ESPN 2025 MLB H2H grid, we see the Cardinals went a surprising 4-2 vs Los Doyers last season, going 2-1 in St Louis last June with LA only scoring 1 run in their first 19 innings at Busch before winning Game 3 (7-3) behind Clayton Kershaw.
Texas went 4-2 vs Detroit last season, going 2-1 both Home and on the Road and outscoring Detroit 17-6, only losing to AL Cy Young Award winner Trek Skubal in Game 1 (2-1) a year ago. Both got off to milquetoast starts with the Tigers 5-14 Road record the alpha.➤Trading Game Pick: Rangers
Tottenham Fighting For its EPL Life at Villa Park Sunday
There are three matches on the 2025-26 English Premier League schedule on Sunday, one involving the 3rd- and 5th-place teams in the Premiership and another between the 4th-place club and another legendary top tier name fighting to avoid relegation and the embarrassment as well.
Manchester United (17-10-7) welcome Liverpool (17-7-10) to Old Trafford (Grass) in Manchester (USA, 10:30 EDT/7:30 PDT) in a meeting between teams who’ll be playing in the UCL next year. Kalshi traders like Manchester United (43%) over Mo Salah and Liverpool (35%) with a Draw at 26%.
Aston Villa (17-7-10) hosts Tottenham Hotspur (8-10-16) at Villa Park (Desso GrassMaster) in Birmingham (2 EDT/1 CDT/11 PDT). Soccer traders at Kalshi like Aston Villa (46%) over Tottenham (31%) with the Draw at 27%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Liverpool is 2-2-1 in the last 5 vs Manchester United (12 GF-5 GA) with the Reds an unbeaten 2-1-0 the last 5 at The Theatre of Dreams (8 GF-2 GA). But Benjamin Sesko (9 goals), Bryan Mbuemo (9 goals) and the Red Devils are 1-1-0 in the last 2 meetings, both at Anfield.
Aston Villa is 4-0-1 the last 5 vs Spurs, winning 4 straight, outscoring them 8-3. Richarlisson and Tottenham will be nervous and may struggle creating quality scoring opportunities on star GK Emiliano Martínez and the Villains goal. ➤Trading Picks: LFC-MUFC BTTS Yes, 67¢, Aston Villa 36¢ (Polymarket)
NASCAR Würth 400 Racing From Texas on Sunday
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season races on this weekend with the 11th race of the year and the running of the 2026 Würth 400 from the Texas Motor Speedway (Asphalt) in Fort Worth, Texas on Sunday (TV—FS1, HBO Max, RADIO—PRN, SiriusXM, 3:30 EDT/2:30 CDT/12:30 PDT).
The 267-lap race will be contested by 38 drivers over the 1.5-mile (2.4 km) track. Joey Logano (Team Penske) won here last year in a race which needed overtime and a little Jesus maybe for Logano to get the checkered flag at the Texas Motor Speedway.
NASCAR traders at Polymarket like Denny Hamlin (17%), Kyle Larson (15%), Tyler Reddick (15%), Ryan Blaney (9%), Christopher Bell (8%), William Byron (8%), 2026 Talladega winner Carson Hocevar (6%), Chase Elliott (6%), Chase Briscoe (5%), Chris Buescher (5%), and Ty Gibbs (4%).
The checkered flag longshots on Sunday are Brad Keselowski (4%), Bubba Wallace (4%), Joey Logano (4%), Austin Cindric (3%), Daniel Suárez (2%), Ross Chastain (2%), and Ryan Preece (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: As we said, Logano won here last year in OT, and at 4¢, seems worth some pizza money depending on your risk profile. Hocevar won at Talladega but it’s hard to see him repeating this weekend. Christopher Bell (Ford) is the only non-Chevrolet or non-Toyota winner.
Elliott (Chevrolet) and Hamlin (Toyota) have been in the Top 10 in three of the last four races as has Food City 500 winner and Toyota driver Gibbs (4-1-9-34). Reddick is struggling and Elliott will look for a third win. ➤Race Winner Trading Picks: Denny Hamlin 17¢, Chase Elliott 6¢, Ty Gibbs 6¢
Two Fixtures on English Premier League Slate on Monday
There are two fixtures on the 2025-26 English Premier League schedule for Monday, one involving a club fighting for the league championship and another trying to stay in contention for a spot for a berth in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Tournament after disappointing in the UCL this season.
8th-place Chelsea (13-9-12) welcomes 16th-place Nottingham Forest (10-9-15) to Stamford Bridge (GrassMaster by Tarkett Sports) in West London in a scary match for both (USA, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT). Kalshi traders like Chelsea FC (59%) over Nottingham Forest FC (21%) with a Draw at 22%.
Manchester City (21-7-5) will face Everton (13-8-13) at Hill Dickinson Stadium (Hybrid Grass) in Liverpool (USA, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). Kalshi traders like Erling Haaland and 2nd-place Manchester City (69%) over Everton (15%) at Merseyside on Monday with the Draw at 20%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Cole Palmer and Chelsea are 3-1-1 in the last 5 vs Nottingham Forest (8 GF-4 GA)—all in the EPL, however the Blues are winless (0-1-1) against the Reds in the last two trips to The Bridge (1 GF-2 GA). Forest will want a point here to avoid festering relegation fears.
MCFC is 4-0-1 the last 5 vs the Toffees, winning 2-0 three times and outscoring them 10-2. A deeper handicap dive reveals the Citizens are an unbeaten 15-3-0 (W-D-L) the last 18, outscoring Everton 45-9 with the Toffees never scoring 2 goals. ➤Trading Picks: Chelsea, Manchester City
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll take a look at the UK General Elections, CFTC Chairman Selig opens up on a Podcast, HBO’s Euphoria Season 3 numbers, the Earnings Report calendar, an NBA Finals winner update, NFL AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, CONCACAF Champions Cup and UEFA Champions League and Europa League Leg 2 previews, and a Sunday night MLB preview. Thank you for reading and subscribing.