Eight clubs have already secured berths in the Round of 16 of the 205026 UEFA Champions League tournament, but 16 others will have to battle each other across two legs to survive the UEFA CL Knockout Phase Playoffs round and this includes some pretty big names.
Real Madrid is one of those famous sides who will now have to play for its life, along with Portuguese opponents Benfica. One of Madrid’s rivals, Atlético Madrid is also in the Play-offs round as are Borussia Dortmund and defending European champions Paris Saint-Germain.
UEFA
The UEFA CL Knockout Phase Playoffs round will begin on Tuesday, February 17 and Wednesday, February 18 with Leg 1s with Leg 2s being played a week later on Tuesday, February 24 and Wednesday, February 25.
The eight clubs who have already secured spots in the Round of 16 are Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, and Sporting CP. A Real Madrid-Manchester City matchup is possible in the Round of 16, and we will see what transpires.
@ChampionsLeague
Playing in the UCL KO Phase Playoffs round are Monaco vs PSG; Galatasaray vs Juventus; Benfica vs Real Madrid; Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta; Qarabağ vs Newcastle United; Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid; Bodø/Glimt vs Inter Milan; and Olympiacos vs Bayer Leverkusen.
The eight clubs who have already secured spots in the Round of 16 are Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, and Sporting CP. A Real Madrid-Manchester City matchup is possible in the Round of 16, and we will see what transpires.
The UEFA CL Quarterfinals will be played on April 7-8 and April 14-15 with the UEFA CL Semifinals on April 28-29 and May 5-6 and the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final from Puskás Aréna in Budapest, Hungary coming on May 30 (CBS Sports, Paramount+ 12 EST/11CST/9 PST).
ARENA BUDAPEST
Khamenei Out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by...?
The longest-serving head of state in the Middle East, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been in power in Iran since June 4, 1989 as the supreme leader of the country which has 92 million people and has been in the news of late for civic unrests and threats to be bombed by US President Trump.
The 86-year-old Ayatollah is the highest authority in the religious and political establishment in the Islamic republic. Iran is home to one of the oldest continuous major civilizations on Earth and ranks #17 in the world in both geographic size and population.
With so much heat on the country—the US bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran on June 22, 2025 in operation “Midnight Hammer”—Polymarket some markets relating to The Asian Country Formerly Known As Persia, including Khamenei out as ‘Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?’
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
On February 16, the four current trading options in this Geopolitics market at Polymarket saw ’Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by...?’ were February 28 (3%), March 31 (14%), June 30 (27%), and December 31 (41%).
Other Iran-Khamenei offerings at Kalshi include US Strikes Iran By...,, US Next Strikes Iran on...?, Will Khamenei Leave Iran by...? and for the more cynical and zen trader, there is always the ’Nothing Ever Happens Khamenei’.
@CNBC
’Starmer Out by...?’ Shows Time the Enemy of UK PM?
All politicians across the globe seem to have unfavorable ratings these days, and that includes Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since July 2024. Approval ratings for the 63-year-old Labour Party member have plummeted.
At Polymarket in the ‘Starmer Out by...?’ prediction market, the 2026 calendar seems to be working against the current UK PM if traders are correct. ‘Starmer Out by...’ February 28, 2026 was at just 4%, March 31 at 14%, June 30, 2026 was at 51%, with December 31, 2026 at 67%.
And this is a very liquid market already, with $6,943,511 in trading volume on February 16.
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
On February 8, Starmer’s Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigned, citing his unhappiness with the appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US with him being linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The Mandelson scandal has wreaked havoc on Starmer’s government.
“The decision to appoint Peter Mandelson was wrong. He has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics itself,” McSweeney said after his resignation from Downing Street.
Whether or not the British PM just leaves on his own terms and Labour somehow finds a better replacement remains to be seen, but with local elections coming up this Spring on Thursday, May 7, don’t expect much to happen in the not-so-distant future. The distant future is a different story.
@OpiniumResearch
Which Party Will Win the Next UK General Election?
The next general election in the United Kingdom is scheduled to be held no later than August 15, 2029, and although that seems like a long time from now. Coinbase has a ‘Which Party Will Win the Next United Kingdom General Election?’
Leading from this distance in the Next United Kingdom General Election is the Reform party (56%), followed by the Labour party (22%)—currently in charge —the Conservative party (19%), Your party (4%), the Green party (2%), the Bruv party (2%), and the Liberal Democrat party (1%).
Currently, the Labour party holds the most seats in the House of Commons (404), followed by the Conservative party (72), Independents (13), the SNP (9) and a bunch of other parties with weird names. A majority of 326 seats is needed for control of the House of Commons.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Reform party currently has 8 seats in the House of Commons, yet has a big lead at Coinbase, meaning people are angry in the UK and change is in the air. But 2029 is too far away and it’s hard to recommend tying up even a little bankroll for that long. Trading Pick: None
A Very Busy Q4 Earnings Calendar Coming This Week
On Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday we will see a number of companies reporting quarterly earnings. On Tuesday, February 17, six companies will report, including Sunoco (SUN), Waystar (WAY), and Labcorp Holdings (LH) all report before the opening bell
On Wednesday, February 18 Wingstop (WING), Kraft Heinz (KHC), and DoorDash (DASH) will all be delivering earnings reports while on Thursday, February 19, companies like John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT) and Etsy (ETSY) deliver before the opening bell.
Walmart
Traders at Polymarket were giving Walmart an 80% chance of beating Q4 2026 (Ending January 31, 2026) expectations and analysts were anticipating an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.73. Walmart had a positive Q3 report ($0.62 EPS) on November 20, 2025.
Walmart (WMT) stock closed at $129.024 on the NASDAQ (Feb 10), reaching a new 52-week high. You can watch the Walmart Earnings Report on Thursday at the Walmart Corporate Website.
@unusual_whales
Oscars 2026: How Many Oscars Will Frankenstein Win?
On Sunday March 15 , the 98th Academy Awards will air with Conan O’Brien hosting from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST) so we will continue our weekly build up to the big night by looking at another Oscars trading category at Polymarket.
In the ‘How Many Oscars Will Frankenstein Win? ’ market, Entertainment traders can bet on how many Oscars this movie will win. Leading the way is 3 Academy Awards wins for the Guillermo del Toro (2025) directed film (62%), followed by 2 (18%), 4 (14%), 1 (8%), 6+ (5%), 0 (5%), and 5 (2%).
Polymarket
Frankenstein (Netflix) is nominated for 9 Academy Awards: Best Picture, Best Actor (Oscar Isaac), Best Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound.
➤Trading Thoughts: The wisdom of the masses says Frankenstein will win no major Oscars, but the modern adaptation of the horror classic should win three Academy Awards, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Production Design. Trading Pick: 3, Yes 67¢
Mercedes AMG Motorsport Predicted to Win in F1
The 2026 FIA Formula One (F1) World Championship season will begin next month with the Australian Grand Prix at the Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne on Sunday, March 8 with Brit Lando Norris looking to repeat as the circuit’s top driver again this year.
Last season, Norris captured his first F1 World Drivers' Championship, driving for McLaren AMG-Mercedes, who won their second straight Constructors' Championship thanks to Norris and teammate Oscar Piastri. It’s all about the chassis, baby. Got oil?
Mercedes finished in second place in the World Constructors' Championship followed by F1 icon Max Verstappen and Oracle Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT in third place.
At Robinhood for the upcoming season in the F1 Constructors Champion market, Mercedes AMG Motorsport (Russell-Antonelli) are the traders favorites to win this campaign (37¢), followed by defending champs McLaren (Norris-Piastri) at 25¢, and Ferrari (Hamilton-Leclerc) at 17¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: Mercedes won this award eight straight seasons (2014-2021) before Red Bull won two straight (2022-2023), with McLaren winning the last two years (2024-2025). So this has been a streaky market with the winning F1 driver’s team also usually taking home this award.
It’s hard to imagine Norris and Piastri not being in the top five this season as well as Verstappen (Red Bull) and Russell (AMG Motorsport). Buying Mercedes AMG Motorsport (Russell-Antonelli) at 37¢ (Bid 0.35¢, Ask 0.37¢) now makes sense. Trading Pick: Mercedes AMG MotorSport 37¢
@F1
2026 DI College Hockey National Champions at Kalshi
The 2025-26 NCAA Division I Men’s College Ice Hockey season continues and will wrap up with the Frozen Four at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on the Las Vegas Strip on April 9 with the 2026 National Championship Game being contested in Sin City on April 10.
Now is the best time to look at the ‘College Hockey National Championship Winner’ market at Kalshi where we find TJ Hughes, Will Horncoff, Michael Hage, and #1 ranked Michigan (24%) favorites followed by its heated rivals, Michigan State (23%) and talented G Trey Augustine.
#4 Western Michigan (16%), #3 North Dakota (15%), #8 Denver (10%), #5 Quinnipiac (11%), #6 Penn State (10%), Max Plante and #10 Minnesota Duluth (9%), #7 Providence (7%), #11 Boston College (7%), Quinnipiac (6%), #13 Wisconsin (6%), and and Connecticut (3%) all followed.
➤Trading Thoughts: Western Michigan surprised all last season, but we can expect a new champ as we have seen the last five seasons (WMU-DEN-QUIN-DEN-UMASS). Noteworthy, #1 Michigan and #2 Michigan hasn't been to the Championship game since 2011 (UM lost to Duluth, 3-2 OT).
Dartmouth (16-6-1) is a team to watch but the Big Green will have to get by the the big three from the Big Ten (MICH-MSU-WIS) as well as the big four from the NCHC (ND-DUL-DEN-WMU). Ten different schools have skated in the last five title games, and we may see two more again in Vegas.
The thought here is to fade the Big Ten teams Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin and back three longer shots with hopes two meet in the championship in North Dakota, Minnesota Duluth and BC. The Fighting Hawks (20-6-0) are always tough and Duluth (17-11-0) and the Eagles (14-8-1) will be tough outs. Trading Picks: North Dakota 13¢, Minnesota Duluth 7¢, Boston College 6¢
Club Brugge Hosts Atlético in UCL Leg 1 Wednesday
The 2025-26 Knockout Round Playoffs of the UCL tournament kicks off this week, with Leg 1s on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Atlético Madrid faces Club Brugge in Leg 1 at Jan Breydel Stadium (Mixto Hybrid Grass Technology) in Brugge, Belgium (Paramount+, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Kalshi traders like Julián Alvarez (4 goals) and Atlético Madrid (52¢) over hosts Club Brugge (25¢) with a Tie (Draw) trading at 23¢. Atlético went 4-1-3 (17 GF-15 GA) in the UCL League Phase while hosts Club Brugge were 3-1-4 (15 GF-17 GA). Leg 2 will be played on February 24 in Madrid.
➤Trading Thoughts: There two clubs have met four times in UEFA Champions League play (2018, 2022), with the home team an unbeaten 2-2-0 (5 GF-1 GA) with the first three meetings all very low-scoring affairs and Los Rojiblancos scoring 0 goals in over 270 minutes of tourney fútbol.
What does this mean? What it always means, Bubba. Home teams do very well on their home turf, be it familiarity with the grounds, favorable calls from the referee, or a combination of the two. Club Brugge blanked Monaco on Matchday 8 while Atlético was upset by Bodø/Glimt (2-1). Alvarez and Atleti should bounce back here and head home even. Trading Pick: Tie (Draw) 23¢
@ClubBrugge
Olympiacos vs Bayer Leverkusen in UCL on Wednesday
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Hybrid Grass) in Piraeus, Greece is the site of this Leg 1 match in the UCL Knockout Phase Playoffs on Wednesday between German Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen and Greek Super League team Olympiacos (Paramount+, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Soccer traders at Kalshi are giving Olympiacos a 39¢ chance (44%) of winning over Bayer Leverkusen (35¢) with a Tie (Draw) priced at 27¢. Leverkusen went 3-3-2 (13 GF-14 GA) in the League Phase while hosts Olympiacos went 3-2-3 (11 GF-14 GA). This chart is pure art.
➤Trading Thoughts: Alejandro Grimaldo and the Thrylos shut out Leverkusen last month (2-0) as Costinha and Mehdi Taremi scored for the hosts. They also met in the 2002 UCL with the home sides winning both legs (@BAY 2 OLY 0, @OLY 6 BAY 2). Home teams are 3-0-0 (10 GF-2 GA).
There have been no draws between these two and as Olympiacos and GK Konstantinos Tzolakis just beat the Germans and are 3-0-0 (5 GF-1 GA) in its last three UCL games, this looks like a low-scoring 1-0 Ολυμπιακός win. Leg 2 is February 24 in Leverkusen. Trading Pick: Olympiacos 39¢
Classic Hoosier State Rivalry Tips Off on Friday Night
Lamar Wilkerson (20.2 PPG) and upstart Indiana (17-8, 8-6 Big Ten) play rivals #12 Purdue (21-4, 11-3 in Big Ten) at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana in a classic Big Ten matchup (8 EST/7 CST/5 PST) in the Hoosier State where basketball is a religion and children are born with sneakers.
On ESPN Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, Indiana is currently in a projected #9 seed, so the Hoosiers could almost sew up a March Madness berth with an upset here vs their rivals at West Lafayette. IU lost at Purdue by 5 last season (81-76) and won by 15 in Bloomington (73-58).
➤Trading Thoughts: In Big Ten play this season, IU upset the Boilermakers in Bloomington (72-67), but Purdue is now 40-4 at home the last two seasons and are a great squad with Braden Smith (15.3), Fletcher Loyer (13.2). Trey Kaufman-Renn (12.6/8.4), and Oscar Cluff (11.0/7.5).
The Boilermakers lead the all-time series, 128-94, with Purdue 9-1 the last 10 in this great rivalry at Mackey, winning by 5 in this game last season (81-76). But IU has won the last two overall and will need this game way more than Purdue. Trading Pick: Purdue Moneyline
@boilerball
Heavyweights Arizona, Houston in Big 12 Battle Saturday
One of many great NCAA College Basketball games on Saturday sees fallen #1 Arizona (22-2, 9-2 Big 12) facing Kingston Flemings and #8 Houston (21-2, 11-1 Big 12) at the Fertitta Center in Houston in a great Big 12 Conference game (ABC, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Brayden Burries, Koa Peat, and Arizona won its first 22 games before hitting a patch of black ice and a schedule even the Anunaki would have dreaded. In six games, the Wildcats will have faced #9 Kansas (L, 82-78), #16 Texas Tech (L, 78-75), #22 BYU (2/18), #3 Houston here (2/21), Baylor (2/24), Kansas again in Tucson (2/28) and #5 Iowa State (3/2). Not fun. Even for Zona.
Houstan Cougars
➤Trading Thoughts: This matchup is good enough to be a Final Four game and seems like a tough scheduling spot for Zona after facing ranked Kansas, Texas Tech, and AJ Dybantsa BYU in the previous three games. After this? Baylor, Kansas (again), and Iowa State follow. Yikes.
Houston swept the two meetings last year, winning at Tucson (62-58) and topping Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game (72-64). As deep as the Wildcats are, the Feritta Center has become sacred hardwood for the Cougars (45-1 L3 seasons). Trading Pick: Houston Moneyline
@UHCougarMBK