The Pope in a Holy Battle with AI for Time Person of the Year?

A Catholic from Chicago and computers are the top two choices in the Polymarket Time 2025 Person of the Year prediction trading market at Polymarket with Artificial intelligence (AI) holding a solid 14% lead over Pope Leo XIV heading into the new week.

AI was given a 32% chance (Yes 34¢, No 69¢) of receiving this annual honor with Pope Leo XIV at 16% (Yes 17¢, No 85¢) as of Thursday, making this look a choice between these two. Three world leaders rounded out the top five, but it’s hard to see Time magazine backing a politician again.

US President Donald Trump (9%), Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (7%), Elon Musk (4%), and China President Xi Jinping (3%) followed AI and the Bishop of Rome, Robert Prevost. Traders were only giving a 7% chance that Time’s Person of the Year is a Woman.

The Time Person of the Year is usually announced in December, traditionally on the second Thursday of the month. It is revealed on the Time website as well as NBC’s TODAY show.

The last four Time Person of the Year honors have gone to Donald Trump (2024), Taylor Swift (2023), Volodymyr Zelensky (2022), and Elon Musk (2021). 

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Lean To Pokrovsk Train Station Being Captured by 2026

The Polymarket platform has an interesting offering in the Geopolitics market Will Russia Capture Pokrovsk Train Station by...? with traders leaning to the “No” contracts over these next two months but backing the “Yes” for its capture by the new year.

What is Pokrovsk Train Station and why is it so important in the Russia-Ukraine war? Located in the Donetsk region, this railway hub has always been an important logistical point for Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region for movement of men and supplies and evacuation of civilians.

In early August, Russian forces tried to encircle the city, now abandoned, forcing a potential Ukrainian troop withdrawal to avoid being trapped. In mid-August, Russian forces broke through north of Pokrovsk in their summer offensive, advancing six miles (10km) in a quick period.

Prediction traders at Polymarket early Thursday gave the train station a 5% chance of being captured by September 30 (Yes 5¢, No 96¢), a 29% chance by October 31 (Yes 29¢, No 72¢), but a much stronger 59% chance of capturing the rail hub by December 31, 2025 (Yes 60¢, No 43¢).

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pump.fun (PUMP) is a Solana-based memecoin generator which simplifies the trading of memecoins and allows users to create and launch tokens onto a decentralized exchange after supplying a chosen name, ticker symbol, image, and a small fee. Think instant memecoin.

Launched on January 19, 2024, pump.fun is known for being user-friendly. The PUMP token was launched on July 25 and it acts as the native utility and governance token for the pump.fun platform and Cryptocurrency exchange. A Solana wallet is required to interact with the platform.

Polymarket traders were almost split dead even in trading on Tuesday in the Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? exchange, with the market on Thursday giving Pump.fun a 38% chance of hitting a penny this calendar year (Yes 39¢, No 63¢), down from 48% just two days earlier.

The historical priceline of PUMP shows an all-time-low of $0.002283 on July 29, 2025 with an all-time high of. $0.008819 on September 14. On Thursday, PUMP was trading well below its 7-day SMA at $0.005339 (-10.71%).

A climb to one cent before 2026 seems more like wishful thinking right now, but pump.fun did see over $1 billion in trading volume for the first time on September 16, 2025 and will likely depend on the broader direction of the Crypto market and a very strong December to reach $0.01.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lowered the federal funds rate 25 bps to a target range of 4-4.25% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17 as forecasted by both Kalshi and Polymarket traders as the Federal Reserve officially began its easing cycle.

Powell said he is more intent on strengthening the slowing labor market now and less worried about inflation. And in an effort to bolster the job market, the Fed head has hinted that he will continue this risk-management approach with more rate cuts in the future.

But will he keep it simple and back another quarter-point rate cut or will the central bank go strong and offer a 50 bps (or more) cut? The next FOMC meeting is October 28-29, and prediction market Polymarket has the Fed Decision in October? market for traders to speculate on.

Another 25 bps Decrease was given a solid 79% chance (Yes 79¢, No 22¢) by traders on Thursday with a 50+ bps Decrease at 3% (Yes 3.5¢, No 96.6¢). The Fed making No Change to the rate was given an 18% chance (Yes 18¢, No 83¢) with a 25+ bps Increase at just 1% (Yes 0.6¢, No 99.5¢).

The last FOMC meeting of 2025 is scheduled for December 9-10. 

Polymarket traders in the What Price will Gold Close at in 2025? market give the precious metal its best chance to close above $3,200+ at 91% (Yes 92¢, No 11¢) with the $3,100-$3,200 range at 5% (Yes 5¢, No 96¢) and all other levels 1% or less than 1% of contracts:

●        <$2,500                          1%         (Yes 1.3¢, No 99.7¢)

●        $2,500-$2,600 <1%      (Yes 0.4¢, No 99.7¢)

●        $2,600-$2,700 <1%      (Yes 0.3¢, No 99.8¢)

●        $2,700-$2,800 <1%      (Yes 0.4¢, No 99.7¢)

●        $2,800-$2,900 1%        (Yes 1.6¢, No 99.5¢)

●        $2,900-$3,000 1%        (Yes 1.9¢, No 99.3¢)

●        $3,000-$3,100 1%        (Yes 1.7¢, No 99.3¢)

As of Thursday, September 25 at 12:18 pm EDT, Gold COMEX was trading near another all-time high at $3,770, well within that over $3,200 range traders favor. The all-time high for spot Gold was re-established on Tuesday, September 23 at an intraday high of $3,800 after Fed Chair Powell warned about the economy.

Kalshi traders are giving Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny a 72% chance (Yes 73¢, No 28¢) to be the Top Artist on Spotify this Year? over Taylor Swift (29% chance, Yes 29¢, No 72¢) in what was a three artist race with The Weeknd seeing some interest from traders but now out of the picture.

Bad Bunny, who will host the Season 51 season premiere of Saturday Night Live on Saturday, October 4 (NBC, 11:30 EDT/8:30 PDT), had the least support of the three some 10 months ago, but traders put him ahead for good in March and he hasn’t looked back.

The Global Top Artist on Spotify the last two years has been Taylor Swift, who took the honor in 2023 (26.1 billion streams) and 2024. (26.6 billion streams) with her Eras Tour and The Tortured Poets Department album generating maximum streaming interest.

Bad Bunny currently sits at No. 41 in the Billboard 200 with Un Verano Sin Ti, a record which has spent an astounding 176 weeks on the chart and reached No. 1 during its reign. 

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Prediction market traders at Kalshi in the Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce be Married this Year? market aren’t giving the popular couple much chance of tying the knot this year with the No trading at 96¢ on Wednesday, September 24 with the Yes at 5¢.

This means at those contract trading prices a $100 investment in the Yes would yield $1,875 with $100 on the No outcome returning $104. Swift has finally stopped touring and many would think the time is right, and there have been many rumors lately.

But it is in the thick of the 2025 NFL Regular Season and it is hard to see Kelce, a star TE for the Kansas City Chiefs, stopping in the middle of the season—which ends in January or February if the three-time defending AFC champions can make another Super Bowl—to get married.

Once football is over, expect the rumors of a Kelce-Swift wedding to intensify and the 35-year-old Swift seems to already be shopping for wedding venues according to some reports. The engaged couple will want a big wedding and very little stress, so 2026 is possible but not guaranteed.

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NCAA Week 5 serves up a number of intriguing games, including a Big 12 Conference showdown between QB Avery Johnson and Kansas State and Central Florida at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas on Saturday, September 27 (FS1, 12 ET/9 PT).

In the Kalshi trading market, Kansas State (1-3) was given a 66% chance to win the game over unbeaten UCF (3-0) who is playing its first conference game of the season and trading at 34%. Sportsbooks had the Wildcats as 6½-point home favorites over the Knights with the Total at 49½.

This will be the third lifetime meetings between these two programs with KSU winning both meetings, including a 44-31 win in 2023 in Manhattan in the Knights first game ever playing in the Big 12 after moving from the American Conference.

Kansas State will be look to avoid a fourth upset of the season after losing vs Iowa State in Ireland in the 2025 NCAAF season lidlifter as 3-point favorites (24-21), to Army in the home opener in Week 2 as 17-point chalks (24-21), and at Arizona in Week 3 as 1.5-point favorites (21-17).

Spanish La Liga play continues this week with Julián Alvarez and Atlético Madrid (1-2-1) welcoming Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid (5-0-0) across town to Metropolitano in Madrid, Spain for the latest El Viejo Clásico on Saturday, September 27 (ESPN+, 10:15 am EDT).

Despite being the road club, Kalshi gives Real Madrid a 42% chance of winning this match outright with Atlético Madrid currently at 31% with a Draw at 29%.

Kalshi had Real Madrid at a 50% chance to be the La Liga Winner (Yes 50¢, No 53¢) ahead of rivals Barcelona (47%), and Atlético Madrid (2%) in once again what seems to be a two team race. A win here by Los Rojiblancos could get them back in the race and make Atleti contracts breathe.

Real Madrid is winless in the last four Madrid derby meetings and the last three have all ended with 1-1 scorelines. With the home side so desperate for a win and the visitors seeking to remain undefeated, another 1-1 deadlock wouldn’t surprise anyone.

The first of five NFL international games takes place this weekend when Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers (2-1-0) face the Vikings (2-1-0) at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland on Sunday (NFL Network, NFL+, 9:30 am EDT) in NFL Week 4 action.

Traders at Kalshi see this AFC-NFC matchup as a toss-up with Minnesota currently trading at 56¢ to win this game outright with Pittsburgh at 45¢. The Vikings were -2.5 (points) in sportsbooks on Thursday with the Total at 40.5. Gaelic games stadium Croke Park has a soil pitch playing surface.

These two teams only play when AFC North schedules get NFC North teams and they have split the last four meetings with the Vikings winning the last time they met in December of 2021 in a high-scoring game (MIN 36 PIT 28) in Minneapolis.

This will be the first NFL Regular Season game ever played in Ireland. College Football kicked off its season again in Ireland this year with Iowa State defeating Kansas State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, 24-21 in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in a Big 12 collision on August 23.

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Another NFL Week 4 game drawing interest from pro Football traders in the Kalshi prediction market is the AFC showdown between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City (CBS, 4:25 pm EDT).

These two teams have been two of the best in the NFL lately but the Chiefs (1-2-0) will need this one more than the Ravens (1-1-0). In Week 3, Kansas City downed the Giants 22-9 while Baltimore were idle and will be well-rested for this collision.

The Ravens are currently trading at 58¢ to win this game with the Chiefs at 43¢. Baltimore opened up as 2.5-point favorites vs Kansas City with the Total at 48.5. Many Pro Football traders on Kalshi like to trade on the games live in progress for a number of reasons.

These two teams met last season with the Chiefs winning 27-20 in the 2024 NFL Regular Season opener in Kansas City and the defending AFC champions are 9-5 lifetime vs the Ravens.

Italian Serie A heavyweights AC Milan (3-0-1) and Napoli (3-0-0) get together at Stado Giuseppe Meaza in Milano, Italy on Sunday (Paramount+ 2:45 pm EDT). Polymarket has Luka Modrić and host AC Milan trading at a 40% chance to beat Napoli (32%) outright with a Draw at 31%.

Last season in Serie A play, Napoli swept AC Milan, winning 2-0 in Milan and 2-1 in Naples but the clubs are 2-2-2 in the last six league meetings. With neither having a loss yet, looking at Draw contracts and a 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 final might be the best prediction.

In the Serie A League Winner market, Kevin De Bruyne and defending champions Napoli were given a 43% (Yes 48¢, No 62¢) chance of repeating by traders after Sunday’s games ended with Inter (15%), Juventus (15%), AC Milan (10%), and Roma (7%) following in Italy’s top flight.