The 2025-26 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Regular Season ends on Sunday, March 15, with Selection Sunday and the revealing of the 68-team bracket later that day (CBS, 9 ET/8 CT/6 PT) an hour after the 2026 Women’s Tournament bracket will come out (ESPN, (CBS, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT).
Before all of that next weekend on the Ides of March, we have Conference Tournaments being played this week with 31 winners receiving automatic bids to the 2026 Men’s Tournament—aka the Big Dance—set to be held from March 17 to April 6, 2026, as Florida looks to defend its title.
In the coming 22 days from March 15 to April 6, we’ll see the end of the NCAAB DI Regular Season, Conference Tournaments, Selection Sunday—where the other 37 “at-large bids” will be revealed—and the much-anticipated NCAA Men’s and Women’s tournaments where prediction market trading should rise again. Strap in.
Florida won it all in the Men’s tourney last year, toppling Houston in the 2025 Championship Game while on the Women’s side, the University of Connecticut (UConn) beat South Carolina giving esteemed HC Geno Auriemma his record 12th national championship with the Huskies.
And those two looked primed to make runs at a repeat with #7 Florida (23-6) peaking at the right time, as they always seem to do under HC Billy Donovan, while the #1 Lady Huskies haven’t lost a basketball game since Joe Biden was still president and the Gulf of Mexico was the Gulf of Mexico.
Kalshi Sued Over Khamenei ‘Would Leave Office’ Resolution
Prediction market heavyweights Kalshi faced more scrutiny and a class-action lawsuit over the prediction market’s controversial ‘No’ resolution in the ‘Ali Khamenei Out As Supreme Leader?’ market. Khamenei was killed in Tehran on Saturday, March 1 by joint US-Israeli airstrikes.
The lawsuit, filed on March 5 by Novian & Novian LLP in the US District Court for the Central District of California said only after the Iranian PM was killed did Kalshi invoke a “death carveout” provision to avoid paying customers betting Khamenei would leave office, by hook or by crook.
"With an American naval armada amassed on Iran’s doorstep and military conflict not merely foreseeable but widely anticipated, consumers understood that the most likely—and in many cases the only realistic—mechanism by which an 85-year-old autocratic leader would 'leave office' was through his death.”
“Defendants understood this as well," the lawsuit contested. The actions, interpretation, and (temporary?) Kalshi ruling (for ‘Yes’ contracts) were deemed "deceptive" and "predatory." The market has $54 million in volume and currently “has been paused”. Lawyers will never go hungry.
The Kalshi Khamenei lawsuit story got so big that even Saturday Night Live even did a joke on the breach of contract lawsuit on the Saturday, March 7 show during its popular weekly “Weekend Update” segment. You can see it below at the 1:30 mark.
Will Iran be Removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to begin on June 11 and run through July 14 at sites in the US, Mexico, and Canada—11 cities in the USA, three in Mexico, and two in the Great White North of Canada—with legend Lionel Messi and Argentina looking to defend its world championship.
Last Sunday, Israel and the US launched a joint attack on Iran—a nation who has qualified for the 23rd FIFA World Cup in North America—but now put in a precarious position because of recent news and possibly potential hardships, bias, or logistics issues Team Melli may face in the tourney.
Iran is in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, hardly a Group of Death and a foursome captain Alireza Jahanbakhsh and the Iran national team could advance from. But what will happen from this fragile point moving forward? Logic dictates they stay in the World Cup.
At Polymarket in the ‘(Will) Iran be Removed From the FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026?’ exchange, the ‘Yes’ was at a 24% chance on March 8 after trading as high as 63% on March 2. This possibility is profoundly sad on a number of social and athletic levels we won’t talk about here.
PMs Say Oracle Will Beat Quarterly Earnings For Q3
The NYSE and NASDAQ have seen some challenging days this month but that’s to be expected during an apparent Apocalypse wrapped in a Mass Extinction wrapped in a small, thick, fried corn tortilla molded like the Titanic. May you live in interesting times. No. May we live in quiet times.
The Earnings Calendar is pretty quiet this week, save for big dogs Oracle (ORCL—NYSE), who will report Q3 2026 fiscal earnings today (Tuesday March 10) after the closing bell at 4 pm CDT (5 EDT) on a conference call. The live webcast is available at the Oracle Investor Relations website.
Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.70 per share for the Austin, Texas based multinational technology company founded by Executive Chairman and CTO Larry Ellison—#6 on the Forbes Real Time Billionaires List—with revenue projections of $16.9 billion for Q3.
Traders at Polymarket are giving Oracle a healthy 78% chance to beat Q3 earnings estimates.
Who Will be on the Cover of the Rolling Stone in 2026?
Coinbase has a cool prediction market in ‘Who Will be on the Cover of Rolling Stone in 2026’ with eight musical and movie stars up for trading in what seems like could be a No-fest. Traders are giving singers Bad Bunny (71%) and Harry Styles (56%) the best chance as of March 8.
Following are Charli XCX (46%), Ariana Grande (39%), Taylor Swift (25%), Timothée Chalamet (16%), Leonardo DiCaprio (13%), and Lady Gaga (15%). Already on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026? Tate McRae (January), Travis Scott (February), and Bob Weir/Grateful Dead (March).
➤Trading Thoughts: This market is a tough call, but I see one potential ‘Yes’ and another ‘No’ for your consideration. The ‘No’ is Lady Gaga (89¢), who just graced the cover of the legendary magazine in December 2025, four issues ago. C’mon man. Ra-ra-ah-ah-ah, Roma-roma-ma.
The ‘Yes’ is Harry Styles. Although he has been on the cover (of the US edition) many times (April 2017, August 2019, August 2022), it’s been four years and the former One Direction (2010-2016) bandmate had a new studio album come out, Kiss All The Time, Disco, Occasionally on March 6. Trading Picks: Harry Styles, Yes 58¢, Lady Gaga, No 89¢
Oscars Preview: Best International Feature Film Winner
The 2026 Academy Awards comes this weekend at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on Sunday March 15 (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST), so let’s look at the under-the-radar ‘Best International Feature Film’ category at Polymarket.
In the relatively liquid market, traders are predicting Sentimental Value (64%) to win the category over The Secret Agent (24%), It Was Just An Accident (8%), The Voice of Hind Rajab (3%), and Sirāt (1%).The Secret Agent briefly led in this market (January 22-23) before Sentimental Value surged.
➤Trading Thoughts: Stellan Skarsgård is up for Best Supporting Actor for his role in Sentimental Value, and although he may not take home a little gold statuette on Sunday evening, this Joachim Trier-directed delight should win the Oscar for the Best International Feature Film. Trading Pick: Sentimental Value, Yes 64¢
UEFA CL Preview: PSG Hosting Chelsea on Wednesday
The 2025-26 UCL Round of 16 Knockout Phase sees an enticing matchup with the EPL’s Chelsea facing French Ligue 1 side and defending UCL champions Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) with the winners moving on to face the winners of the Liverpool-Galatasarray series in the Round of 8.
Leg 1 is at Parc de Princes (Desso GrassMaster) in Paris, France on Wednesday (Paramount+ 4 EST/3 CST/1 PST) with the return Leg 2 scheduled for Stamford Bridge (GrassMaster by Tarkett Sports) in West London, England on Tuesday, March 17 (Paramount+ 4 EST/3 CST/1 PST).
Kalshi Soccer traders like PSG (53%) over Cole Palmer, João Pedro and Chelsea (22%) here with a Tie (Draw) priced at 24% with the Over 2.5 goals scored (‘Yes’) at 61%. Les Parisiens are 2-2-1 the last 5 meetings (7 GF-8 GA) despite being outscored and the Blues scoring in every match.
➤Trading Thoughts: PSG had a better squad when winning the UCL in 2024-25 and Bradley barcola and Les Parisiens needed to win a Play-in Round series vs Ligue 1-mates AS Monaco (5-4 aggregate). Home and Leg 1 make PSG the play. Trading Pick: Over 2.5 goals scored, Yes 61¢
UEFA CL Preview: MCFC, Real Madrid Dance on Wednesday
The best matchup of the 2025-26 UCL Round of 16 is this showdown between EPL heavyweights Manchester City and La Liga legends Real Madrid with Leg 1 scheduled for the Santiago Bernabéu (Mixto Hybrid Grass) in Madrid, Spain on this Wednesday (Paramount+, 4 EDT/3 CDT/12 PDT).
Even with this match in Spain, traders at Kalshi are behind Erling Haaland and Manchester City (49%) over Thibaut Courtois and Real Madrid (29%) with a Tie (Draw) trading at 25%. In the last 6 UEFA Champions League clashes between these two, Real Madrid is 2-2-1 (11 GF-9 GA).
At home over that span, Los Blancos are 1-1-1 in matches all played in 2023 and 2024, so these two icons have a way of drawing each other in this prestigious tourney. Both teams have scored in all of the last 5 meetings (RM 1-2 MC, RM 3-1 MC, MC 2-3 RM, MC 1-1 RM, RM 3-3 MC).
➤Trading Thoughts: Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid advanced to the R16 Knockout Phase by knocking off Portugal’s Benfica In the Play-in Round (3-1 aggregate). Facing big man Haaland, Phil Foden, and Antoine Semenyo will be a tougher challenge for the electric Viní Júnior and the hosts.
With both sides having the firepower and knowing the will be a Leg 2—Tuesday, March 17 at Etihad Stadium in Sky Blue Mancunia—whener nothing else will matters but advancing, expect some lapses on defense and 3 or more goals. Trading Pick: Over 2.5 Goals or More, Yes 62¢
Bundesliga: BO4 Hosting Bayern Munich on Saturday
The 2025-26 Fußball-Bundesliga season plugs along this weekend with a full slate of fixtures including league leaders Bayern Munich (21-3-1) and 6th-place Bayer 04 Leverkusen (13-5-7) meet from BayArena (Grass) in Leverkusen on Saturday (ESPN+, 10:30 EST/9:30 CST/7:30 PST).
Traders at Polymarket are backing Harry Kane and Bayern Munich (61¢) over Patrick Schick (7 goals) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (20¢) and a possible Draw (20¢) in this match from North Rhine-Westphalia. Mighty Bayern Munich to win by over 1.5 goals was priced at 39¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: GK Manuel Neuer and Bayern Munich rolled to a 3-0 clean sheet the first time these two clubs met in Bundesliga play this season, scoring thrice in the first 45 minutes on goals by Serge Gnabry (25’), Chelsea castoff Nicolas Jackson (31’), and Loïc Badé (43’ OG).
Bayern Munich is 63-22-20 (W-D-L) lifetime vs Leverkusen and has gone 9-4-3 vs B04 in the last 16, winning the last 3 and outscoring B04 8-0 in the process. In the last 4 meetings between these two rivals, Bayer Leverkusen has failed to score a goal, dating back to the DFB-Pokal in 2024-25. Trading Pick: Bayern Munich to win by Over 1.5 goals, Yes 39¢
NCAAB Conference Tournament Champions Markets
Here are the Kalshi links to the NCAA College Basketball tournaments for the 31 conferences playing for an automatic bid for the 2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball tournament:
NCAAB Futures Preview: To Make the NCAA Final Four
The prediction markets and online sportsbooks offer derivative markets and odds on which teams may make the Final Four in Naptown this year, but it’s important to note that trading or betting in this particular market is probably best done after Selection Sunday, on March 15.
True, you may never see some of the value perceived in the numbers before the teams are selected and seeded for the Big Dance, but it’s better to see who gets placed and seeded where and what that team’s potential path to the Final Four and the Hoosier State may be.
It’s no good if three of the four teams you want to back are in the same Regional as only one can win it, survive, and advance on to the Final Four in April. It’s best not to bet against yourself Bubba.
In the Men’s Semifinals Qualifiers (Final Four) market at Kalshi, traders are giving Duke (64%), Michigan (60%), Arizona (53%), and Florida (46%) the best chances of making the Final Four. Following are Houston (31%), Illinois (23%), UConn (19%), and Iowa State (17%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Selection Sunday is just five days away, so it’s best to see who is where and what path they may have. Avoiding a bracket with a Houston, Iowa State, or Kansas as a #2-seed or lower seems wise. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has a good guide of who’s going where in his Bracketology.
Even if given #2 seeds by the committee, last year’s Championship Game combatants—Florida and Houston—can beat Duke, Arizona, or Michigan. And even with star JT Toppin hurt, Texas Tech (5¢) may be a good F4 longshot. Trading Picks: Arizona 53¢, Florida 46¢, Houston 21¢, Texas Tech 5¢
NCAAB Futures Preview: 2026 Men’s National Champions
The College Basketball season is our friend in the darkest months, coming to us in November right after the calendar turns to Autumn and ending gracefully in April, two weeks after Spring comes in as the days get longer, warmer, and hopefully, happier for us all. We are not AI. We are humans.
And like with all other sports, with the end of the NCAAB season comes the crowning of the champs. This year’s Championship Game is on Monday, April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (CBS, 9 EDT/8 CDT/7 PDT/6 PDT). And like other sports, we see patterns in who becomes champs.
The last 35 winners of the Championship Game have come from one of the Power Six (P6) conferences—ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC—with the last winner from a Group of Six or non-P4 conference being UNLV (Big West) in 1990 when there was no Netflix, MLS, or Bitcoin.
The eventual champion also usually comes from a college with a campus east of the Mississippi River, with 22 of the 25 winners since 2000 holding that Big Muddy distinction with the Big 12 Conference’s Kansas (2008, 2022) and Baylor (2021) being the lone hardwood exceptions.
In the Men’s College Basketball Champion market at Kalshi, traders are giving Carlos Boozer and Duke an 23% chance (Yes 23¢, No 78¢) of winning the 2026 NCAA DI Men’s Basketball Tourney with Michigan (21%), Arizona (15%), and defending national champions Florida (14%) following.
Next are Kingston Flemings and Houston (7%), Solo Ball and UConn (7%), Keaton Wagler and Illinois (5%), Joshua Jefferson and Iowa State (4%), Darryn Peterson and Kansas (3%), Braden Smith and Purdue (3%), Graham Ike and Gonzaga (2%), and Darius Acuff, Jr. and Arkansas (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Florida defeated Houston for the glory last Spring and Billy Donovan knows how to keep his guys healthy and have them peaking at the right time—heading into the madness of March. This year is no different for Thomas Haugh (17.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and the hungry Gators.
Besides F Haugh (6-9), Florida has two other solid bigs in 6-10 C Reuben Chinyelu (11.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG) and 6-11 F Alex Condon (14.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG) and a trio of good G’s in Boogie Fland (11.6 PPG), Xaivian Lee (11.4 PPG), and Urban Klavzar (10.2 PPG). Trading Pick: Florida, Yes 15¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we dive head first into the 2026 Academy Awards airing on Sunday night with analysis and picks for five Oscars markets. We’ll also serve up a smörgåsbord of sports, including looks at NBA, EPL, UFC, and the F1 Chinese Grand Prix events on Saturday and the NASCAR Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas and Big Dance Selection Sunday on Sunday. Thank you for subscribing.