On Wednesday February 25, the popular reality TV show Survivor will celebrate its 50th season with a much-anticipated three-hour premiere (CBS, 8 EST/7 CST/7 MST/8 PST).
Survivor 50
The theme of Survivor: Season 50 is “In the Hands of the Fans” and will witness three tribes of eight returning players fighting for the more than $1,000,000 prize money in the Mamanuca Islands in Fiji—the reality competition TV show’s permanent home since Season 33.
Jeff Probst has been with Survivor all 50 seasons and 714 episodes. There have been 47 winners in the 49 seasons on the CBS hit with Sandra Diaz-Twine (S7, S20) and Tony Vlachos (S28, S40) both winning the show twice.
Researching the Survivor 50 Winner market at Polymarket—as we previously mentioned here at The Prediction Report—it appears some traders know who made it to finale night already on the taped show. With just $33,320 in volume days before the premiere, Aubry Bracco (76%) was ahead of the other castaways.
Following Bracco three days the premiere were Joe Hunter (6%), Cirie Fields (5%), Jonathan Young (4%), Benjamin “Coach” Wade (3%), Colby Donaldson (2%), Rizo Velovic (2%), Rick Devens (1%), Kamila Karthigesu (1%), Quintavius “Q” Burdette (1%), Ozzy Lusth (1%), Dee Vallardes (1%), Angelina Keeley (1%), Kyle Fraser (1%), and Savannah Louie (1%).
Players with less than 1% were Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick, Emily Flippen, Charlie Davis, Chrissy Hofbeck, Genevieve Mushaluk, Christian Hubicki, Mike White, Kenna Lewis-Dougherty, Tiffany-Nicole Ervin and.
➤Trading Thoughts: Why is Aubry trading at 76% (Yes 80¢, No 29¢)? Surely someone knows something? This market only had $33K in volume on February 22, and no one has seen anything but the people working on and involved with the show. This makes trading and enjoying this market virtually impossible.
And this is one of the serious problems facing prediction markets in these formative years. The reality (or perception) of insider trading. Anyone wanting to buy ‘Yes’ on Bracco is late to the party (already) while anyone contemplating any other castaways is also now spooked by the numbers. Trading Pick: None
@survivorcbs
DraftKings Announces Prediction Markets Arm Plan
In a letter published to shareholders on Thursday, February 12, online sports gambling heavyweights DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) confirmed its plans to launch a market-making arm for prediction markets as a “core part of the customer experience.”
In October, the company acquired the CFTC-registered contract maker (DCM) Railbird Technologies to power its new platform called “DraftKings Predictions” as it looks to expand its footprint beyond traditional sports gambling.
Like Kalshi and Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions offers both Buy (bid) and Sell (ask) prices for event contracts. DraftKings Predictions is live and besides the expected sports menu of contracts, DK currently offers up Awards, Elections, Stock Market, Commodities, Crypto, and Economics.
@GeoffZochodne
Who Will be the Eurovision Winner 2026?
Organized by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and presented by Victoria Swarovski and Michael Ostrowski, the 70th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest will see two Semifinals on May 12 and May 14 and the Grand Final on Saturday, May 16 at Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria (Peacock, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Eurovision 2026 is also being organized by host Austrian broadcaster Österreichischer Rundfunk (ORF) which will stage this much-anticipated annual singing event after classically trained countertenor JJ (Johannes Pietsch) won Eurovision 2025 for Austria with his song “Wasted Love.”
The victory at the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 was the first for Austria since 2014. Israel finished in second place followed by Estonia, Sweden, and the host of the 2026 Winter Olympics, Italy. At Polymarket, you can trade on who the Eurovision Winner 2026 will (or won’t) be.
Three European nations were in double-digit ‘Yes’ chance territory in Finland (16%), Greece (15%), and Denmark (11%) with traders also backing Sweden (8%), Israel (7%), Italy (6%), France (5%), Ukraine (4%), Bulgaria (3%), Cyprus (3%), and Croatia (3%).
Five nations sat at a 2% chance in the UK, Norway, Malta, Australia and Croatia with most of the market at 1% including Belgium, Serbia, Switzerland, Germany, Luxembourg, Romania, Latvia, Moldova, Armenia, Lithuania, Czechia, Azerbaijan, Albania, Georgia, Estonia, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Montenegro, and defending Eurovision champs Austria. Don’t cry for me Azerbaijan.
➦Where to Watch the Eurovision Song Contests 2026 in the USA: You can catch both the Semifinals (May 12, May 14) and the Grand Final (Saturday, May 16; 3 EST/2 CST/1 MST/12 PST) of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 streaming live or on-demand at Peacock and the Eurovision YouTube channel.
➤Trading Thoughts: Since Ireland won Eurovision three straight years (1992-1994), no country has gone back-to-back at this renowned competition. Sweden (2015, 2023) and Ukraine (2016, 2022) have had the most success over the last 10 years, with each European nation winning twice.
Traders at Polymarket in this very liquid market—it had a healthy $3,975,543 in trading volume on February 23—are giving Sweden a 91% chance of advancing through the First Eurovision Semi-Final with traders giving Ukraine a 93% chance in the Second Eurovision Semi-Final.
In the competition, Ukraine will be represented by 36-year-old Leléka (Viktoriia Leleka) who will sing her song "Ridnym.” On February 7, 2026, LELÉKA won the Ukrainian national selection, Vidbir 2026, nabbing top scores from both the public and the show’s jury with her mesmerizing performance to move on to the Eurovision competition. Slava. Trading Picks: Ukraine, Yes 3.9¢
Big Earnings Calls Week Includes Some Tasty Companies
It’s a huge week for Earnings Calls with a number of large companies on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) releasing earnings.
On Tuesday, February 24, 2026, after the bell closes, American Entertainment (AMC), HP (HPQ), and Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) are among those reporting with all companies who are reporting earnings having trading markets at Polymarket.
NVIDIA
On Wednesday, February 25, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company ($4.5 trillion market cap), Nvidia (NVDA), Snowflake (SNOW), Urban Outfitters (URBN), and Zoom Communications (ZOOM) among those companies reporting earnings after the bell.
Traders at Polymarket were saying everything’s alright, giving Nvidia an overwhelming 95% chance of beating quarterly earnings with ‘Yes’ buy contracts trading at 95¢ with ‘No’ buy contracts at 6¢.
On Thursday, February 26, 2026, a trio of companies involved with food will report before the bell, in Shake Shack (SHAK; 77% chance beats estimate), Papa John’s International (PZZA; 67% chance), and Krispy Kreme (DNUT; 48%). Dell Technologies (DELL) and Monster Beverage (MNST) are among those reporting after the bell on Thursday.
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2026 at IB
At Interactive Brokers, traders can invest in a number of markets, including the ‘Will Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Exceed 38,500 Metric Tons in 2026?’ for all of you pollution freaks.
On February 22, ‘Yes’ contracts above 50% were seen at the Above 36,500, Above 37,000, Above 38,000 global carbon dioxide emissions levels but trading under 50% in the Above 38,500 (47%), Above 39,000, Above 39,500, Above 40,000, Above 40,500, and Above 41,000 (3%) levels.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Hawai’i and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Their metrics serve as the benchmark for the Keeling Curve, the global CO2 barometer. You can find daily CO2 levels at the @Keeling Curve account on the social media platform X (Twitter).
@metoffice
Oscars 2026: Best Cinematography Winner
Let’s continue our weekly look at Oscars winners categories for the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST) with a look at the tightly contested ‘Best Cinematography’ category.
In the ‘Oscar for Best Cinematography?’ market at Coinbase, Entertainment traders were torn between One Battle After Another (73%) and Sinners (19%) and with Train Dreams (9%), Marty Supreme (2%), and Frankenstein (1%) following.
As you can see from the Coinbase chart, Sinners was the trader’s favorite before the flip. A look at Kalshi showed very similar numbers (73%-19%) after being deadlocked 44%-44% not so long ago.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is one of the few Oscars categories that isn’t so one-sided, but is basically a race between the two favorites. And the liquidity was well over $1 million more than a month away from the 2026 Academy Awards ($1,1331,053 on February 22 at Kalshi).
In One Battle After Another, cinematographer Michael Bauman employed a cool “gritty 1970s” look using VistaVision and other techniques to give a French Connection feel. Trading Pick: One Battle After Another, Yes 73¢
DI Men’s College Lacrosse Championship Winner
The 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s College Lacrosse season is underway with Cornell the defending national champions after beating Maryland in the 2025 NCAA DI Lacrosse Tournament Championship Game, 13-10 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
The Ivy League’s and #1 seed Big Red were 15-1 in the Regular Season heading into the tournament while the Big Ten’s Terrapins were 12-4. This year, traders at Kalshi are backing Syracuse (18%) to win the Division I Men's College Lacrosse Championship.
Following the Orange, Maryland (14%), North Carolina (11%), Duke (10%), Notre Dame (10%), Princeton (9%), Georgetown (7%), Ohio State (7%), Richmond (7%), Boston University (5%), Penn State (5%, down 19%), Army (4%), Harvard (4%), Johns Hopkins (4%), Denver (3%), Virginia (3%), and defending champs Cornell (3%).
Kalshi
➤Trading Thoughts: The 2026 DI Men’s NCAA DI Lacrosse Championship will be held on May 23 (Semifinals) and May 25 (Championship Game) at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia. This would be a huge home edge for A Hunter Mezzatesta, A Lucas Garcia, and the #13-ranked Cavs.
An ACC- Big Ten Championship Game on Memorial Day weekend seems possible with Syracuse and Maryland, but don’t count out the Ivy league with Princeton (#3) and Cornell (#4). Duke (#9) has a nice squad with SSDM Aidan Maguire, M James Gillis, and A Tedy Frisoli on the Blue Devils.
Notre Dame (#7) is also a team to watch with D Shawn Lyght, M Dylan Faison, and D Joe Ligas, while Maryland (#2) boasts D Will Schaller and LSM Ethan Bramoff and could be back in the title tilt. But Joey Spallina and the Orange are the side to beat. Trading Pick: Syracuse, Yes 18¢
#17 St John’s at #5 UConn in Big Ten on Wednesday
The women aren’t the only powerful basketball team on the campus of the University of Connecticut, with the Men’s program sitting in the top 10 rankings with UConn (25-3, 15-2 in Big East) at #5 and the Women’s and Men’s programs going a combined 52-2 in Storrs.
On Wednesday night, Head Coach Danny Hurley, G Solo Ball (14.5 PPG), and the Huskies welcome Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) to PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, Connecticut for this Big East Conference battle between ranked teams (NBCSN, Peacock, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST).
At Kalshi in the Men’s College Basketball Champion market, traders are currently giving UConn a 6% chance (Yes 6¢, No 95¢) of winning the 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament with legendary HC Rick Pitino and St John’s being given just a 2% shot (Yes 2¢, No 99¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: UConn lost to the Red Storm at MSG on February 6, 2026 (81-74) as Ejiofor had 21 points and 10 rebounds in the Big Apple as St Johns beat UConn for the third consecutive time. The Red Storm head into this one riding an impressive 13-game winning streak.
F Bryce Hopkins (13.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG), G Oziyah Sellers (10.9 PPG), G Ian Jackson (10.5 PPG) and St John’s have now won a Red Storm program-record 12 straight Big East road games, after downing Marquette in Milwaukee on Wednesday, February 18, 76-70.
The Huskies lost to the Red Storm in the both meetings last season, winning 89-75 at MSG on February 23, 2024 as Ejiofor had a game-high 18 points and toppling the Huskies 68-62 at Connecticut on February 7. Trading Pick: St John’s plus the points
@StJohnsBBall
#1 UConn at Georgetown in Women’s Hoops Thursday
Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong, and and #1 UConn (27-0, 16-0 Big East) welcomes Georgetown (12-13, 5-11 Big East) to PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, Connecticut in the second-to-last Big East Conference game for both on Thursday evening (TNT, truTV, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST).
Superstar F Strong (19.1 PPG, 7.8, 4.4 APG), G Fudd (17.5 RPG), F Blanca Quiñonez (10.7 PPG), and UConn—on a 54-game win streak—are currently the traders favorites at Kalshi with a 68% chance (Yes 68¢, No 33¢) to win the Women’s College Basketball Championship.
With five players verging between 7.0 and 8.2 PPG (Ziebell, Shade, Williams, Arnold, Heckel), legendary Head Coach Geno Auriemma has a great bench in Storrs and this team has been absolutely destroying Big East opponents leading up to the conference tournament in March.
UCONN
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two schools met earlier this season at the CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC, the Huskies rolled to an 83-42 victory, outscoring the Hokies in every quarter and holding a 31-point lead at halftime (51-20) as Strong finished with 25 points and Fudd with 19.
Lifetime, UConn is 57-6 vs Georgetown, winning the last 41 straight meetings against the Hoyas and last losing to Georgetown on February 27, 1993 (64-62) when the Internet was just 10 years old, there was no Bitcoin, and before Strong and the entire Huskies roster was even born.
UConn won by 41 the first meeting on the road, so expect to see a point spread number over 50 in this one in the Nutmeg State. Google says that nutmeg doesn’t grow on trees in Connecticut but New Haven-style_pizza does. Trading Pick: UConn to Win Women’s National Championship, Yes 68¢
@UConnWBB
#15 Michigan State Meets #13 Purdue on Thursday Night
Jeremy Fears Jr (15.1 PPG) and #15 Michigan State (20-5, 10-4 in Big Ten) locks horns with Braden Smith (15.1 PPG) and #13 Purdue (20-5, 12-4 Big Ten) at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana in a Big Ten Conference treat on Thursday night (Peacock, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
In the Men’s College Basketball Champion market at Kalshi, traders are giving Purdue a 4% chance (Yes 4¢, No 97¢) of winning the 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament with legendary Head Coach Tom Izzo and Michigan State being given just a 2% shot (Yes 2¢, No 99¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Boilermakers are always hard to topple at Mackey Arena (12-3 this season) and the Spartans are just 4-3 on the road and will make the Big Dance no matter what happens here as College Basketball conference play starts to wind down for the men and women.
Here, expect G Fletcher Loyer (13.6 PPG), F Trey Kaufman-Renn (12.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG), C Oscar Cluff (10.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and Purdue to expect a win by around 10 points or so to keep its Big Dance seeding status as high as possible. Trading Pick: Purdue Minus the Points
Wolves Facing Aston Villa in an EPL Fixture on Friday
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1-7-20) welcome Morgan Rogers and 3rd-place Aston Villa (15-6-6) to Molineux Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in Wolverhampton, West Midlands in an English Premier League Matchweek 28 fixture (USA Network, Universo, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
Polymarket traders are giving Ollie Watkins, Tammy Abraham, and Aston Villa no chance (<1%) of catching Arsenal (63%) in the English Premier League winner race this season with four months to play. Last-place Wolves have another problem (relegation) with just 1 win more than you and me.
At Polymarket, Aston Villa (53%) was the trader’s pick to win in the three-way market with Wolverhampton trading at 23% and a Draw at 25%. Over 2.5 goals was 52% (Under 2.5 49%).
➤Trading Thoughts: In the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these two clubs, the Lions are 3-1-1, winning all three meetings at home (6 GF-1 GA) but going 0-1-1 at Mileux (1 GF-3 GA). Aston Villa’s last win in this West Midlands derby came all the way back on December 12, 2020.
In their first meeting this year on November 30, 2025, Aston Villa won 1-0 at home on a goal from Boubacar Kamara (67’) as Argentine GK Emiliano Martínez was brilliant at Villa Park, registering the clean sheet. Could we see a repeat final scoreline here? Trading Pick: Aston Villa, Yes 53c
@AVFCOfficial
#2 Michigan at #8 Illinois in Big Ten Play on Friday Night
Yaxeel Lendeborg (14.3 PPG) and #2 Michigan (24-1, 14-1 in Big Ten) face # 8 Illinois (21-5, 12-3 in Big Ten) in a huge Big Ten Conference matchup between top 10 teams at the State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois on Friday night (FOX, ABC7, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
Kalshi traders are currently giving Michigan a 23% (Yes 23¢, No 78¢) of becoming the Men’s College Basketball Champion in April with G Keaton Wagler and Illinois being given a 7% (Yes 7¢, No 94¢) chance by the predictive masses of bringing an elusive national title back to Champaign.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Fighting Illini have been completely dominant in this series of late, with Illinois winning the last 9 straight to improve to 96-85 lifetime vs the Wolverines on the hardwood. The last meeting in Champaign (2023-24) saw the hosts roll by 29 (97-68).
Illinois has defeated Michigan 4 straight times at home and the Fighting Illini’s last loss to the Wolverines came on January 10, 2019 in Champaign (79-69). This seems like a good spot to just back G Kylan Boswell (14.3 PPG), the hosts and the trend. Trading Pick: Illinois Moneyline
@IlliniMBB