Since prediction markets became more popular in 2022, with the 2024 US Presidential Election, New York City-based Polymarket and Kalshi have always been the top two dogs in the growing space in which some analysts are now predicting more than $1 trillion in volume by the year 2030.
By market value, Kalshi ($11 billion) and Polymarket ($9 billion) are head and shoulders above the competition and the dynamic duo get the vast majority of the press coverage and have the stars of the industry in Polymarket CEO Shane Koplan, and Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara.
All three are billionaires. All three are under 20 years of age with Koplan at 27 and both Mansour and Lopes Lara at 29. So Polymarket and Kalshi are big names and massive rivals like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, Duke and North Carolina, Microsoft and Apple, and the Yankees and the Red Sox.
But who is #3? And who may emerge to take that third spot like Tether (USDT) is trying to do behind Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the cryptocurrency space. In valuation, Rain_Protocol ($1.95b) was #3 followed by Novig ($400m), gnosis_ ($376m), and opinionlabsxyz ($300.8m).
In trading volume in early March, Kalshi was #1 and Polymarket #2, with Probable (OxProbable) having a 7-day volume of $336.52 million, followed by OPINION ($330.78), predict.fun ($98.24m), Limitless Exchange (20.01m), 5X Bet ($16.31m), and Myriad Markets ($3.23m).
Whether or not other prediction market players like Robinhood, Crypto.com, Interactive Brokers, Gemini, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, sportfun, and overtime.io can create a solid presence in the space and increase popularity, volume and company valuations remains to be seen.
Robinhood’s relationship with Kalshi should help them in the long run but for now at least, it seems like a battle between Limitless, Opinion, and predict.fun—which just acquired OxProbable—for the #3 spot behind Kalshi and Polymarket as the prediction market space continues to grow.
Expect heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket to flip-flop #1 and #2 for some time as both continue to grow while fighting cases in many states, relaunching in the US in Polymarket’s case, raising money, and dealing with serious things like allegations of insider trading and potential addiction.
WSJ: Kalshi, Polymarket Now in Talks to Raise More Funds
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, big prediction market rivals Kalshi and Polymarket are talking to investors about raising more money. Exactly how much money you ask? Both are seeking $20 billion valuations.
That’s around twice as much as what Kalshi ($11b) and Polymarket ($9b) are estimated to be valued at right now. So the hypothetical yet real race we talked about ‘Who Will be #3?” might be relevant but will also reflect the current crypto dynamic between Bitcoin-Ethereum and Tether.
Prediction markets started in the 16th century with people betting on Papal elections and now we have a chance to see, if valued at $20 billion, Kalshi and Polymarket having similar valuations to companies like Humana Inc., Tenet Healthcare, First Solar Inc., and JB Hunt Transport Services.
So the prediction market battle between King King and Godzilla rages on with both monsters racing to sign up as many new customers as possible and iron out the things expected in growing industries and unique things like betting on how much rain will fall in Seattle on a given day.
And we don’t know which one is King Kong and which one is Godzilla but Shane Coplan has a mop of hair while Godzilla has none. Either way, this continued push to raise more money—and at the same time again—means no one may ever catch these two. But that may be good for everyone.
Predict.Fun Acquires OxProbable
These two platforms, both belonging to the Binance group are seen as competing players in a homogeneous market, but now with PredictFun acquiring Probable (OxProbable)
Probable hit $1 billion in trading volume in its first 36 days and ranked #3 globally while Predict Fun processed over 3.3 million transactions in three months, racking up a transactional value of $1.653 billion and serving more than 120,000 users.
The acquisition means the BNB Chain PM will enter a new stage of liquidity with the original growth leader of Probable, Yue Xiaoyu, now assuming the head role of the Asia-Pacific region for Predict Fun.
Predict.Fun is a decentralized prediction market from Yzi Labs that aims for high liquidity and capital efficiency via a DeFi-native and is looking to have a strong presence in the Chinese marketplace.
Will SAVE America ACT be Signed Into Law in 2026?
The SAVE America Act is a proposal come up with by President Trump proposing Americans to provide proof of United States citizenship in order to register for federal elections. In February, the US House of Representatives passed the bill, but it is now held up in the US Senate.
Trump threatened not to sign any other bills unless his SAVE America Act is passed in the senate and signed into law. At Predict.fun, traders in the ‘SAVE Act Signed Into Law in 2026?’ market are giving it just a 16% chance of passing (‘Yes’) with 84% predicting it won’t.
But this market had very little liquidity ($902.29 on March 11), Looking at the same market at
Kalshi and Polymarket, we find not-so-similar trading percentages (11.9% and 30% respectively on March 11) and trading volumes ($2,070,639 at Kalshi, $36,805 at Polymarket on March 11).
➤Trading Thoughts: With the Midterm Elections coming up in November, Trump is doing everything in his power to try to change the way Americans vote, knowing what he knows and what he plans, with fears of a November Blue Wave and blame for the fearless leader.
In the end, this is all about the Senate and how much they will bend, knowing what they know. Expect Trump to continue to prioritize this and hold other things hostage in an attempt to get what he wants, like he almost always seems to want to try to do. Trading Pick: None
Which Company Has Best AI Model at End of June?
Polymarket has a cool Tech category market in ‘Which Company Has the Best AI Model at the End of June?’ with a number of tech leaders fighting for the honor. Traders were backing Anthropic (54%) over Google (24%) with a pack of possible also-rans looking up at them.
OpenAI (13%), xAI (7%), DeepSeek (2%), and Alibaba (1%) were all longshots with traders hanging up the telephone on Z.ai (<1%). Moonshot (<1%), Mistral (<1%), and Meituan (<1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: I have no thoughts, lithium breath. I am human. AI has turned my thoughts off for now in an effort to save money for a future AI world-takeover. Trading Pick: Anthropic, Yes, 54c
Click here to trade on 'Which Company Will Have the Best AI Model at the End of June?’ at Polymarket
French Open Men’s Winner Preview From Novig
The 2026 French Open at Stade Roland Garros (Clay) in Paris, France is the second major of the Tennis calendar year after the 2026 Australian Open in January, and the always popular ATP event is open for trading at Novig in both the Men’s and Women’s Singles categories.
In the Men’s Singles winner market, top-ranked Spaniard Carlos Alcarez is the trader’s favorite (Yes +121, No -146) followed by Italian Jannik Sinner (Yes +149, No -182), German Alexander Zverev (Yes +1251, No -3604), and Serbian legend Novak Djokovic (Yes +1308, No -4067).
Italian Lorenzo Musetti (+2173), Great Britain’s Jack Draper (+2464), Brazil’s João Fonseca (+2532), Norway’s Casper Ruud (+3233), France’s Arthur Fils (+3471), USA’s Ben Shelton (+4067), and Czechia’s Jakub Menšík (+4445) are longshots on the red clay in Paris.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, it was Carlos Alcarez who was the Men’s Singles winner of the red clay in Paris, defeating Jannik Sinner in five classic sets [4-6, 6-7 (4-7), 6-4, 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (10-2)] as the Spaniard defended his title in the French Open.
Alcaraz is ranked #1 the ATP and he has won seven majors and 26 ATP Tour-level Singles titles in his still young career. Alcarez became the youngest player ever to complete a Men’s Grand Slam. Do you fade him here? Do warthogs own hot pink Toyotas? Trading Pick: Carlos Alcarez, Yes +121
MLB Home Run Leader Market Preview at Robinhood
The 2026 Major League Baseball (MLB) season starts on Wednesday in The City By The Bay and that means balls going out of the park and at Robinhood, you can trade on who will end up having the most Home Runs this Regular Season.
Traders are behind Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (23¢), and Dodgers unicorn Shohei Ohtani (16¢), followed by the Mariners Cal Raleigh (13¢), the Phillies Kyle Schwarber (12¢), the A’s Nick “The Big Amish” Kurtz (11¢), new Orioles 1B Pete Alonso (7¢), the A’s Brent Rooker (6¢), the Mets OF Juan Soto (6¢), and the Blue Jays 3B Junior Caminero (4¢). Go deep or go home.
➤Trading Thoughts: Shortshots Judge and Ohtani are the logical choices and the two best players in MLB in the last 20 years. Witness. Last year, Judge hit 53 HRs, Ohtahi had 55, and Raleigh banged out 60 in the Emerald City. The three favorites in this market again this year. Makes sense.
So who may be able to challenge these three studs over a marathon 162-game season? Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz (.290/36/86/1.002 OPS) is who we give you at The Prediction Report, a 6-foot-5-inch, 240-pound left-handed slugger from Lancaster, Pennsylvania Trading Pick: Nick Kurtz, Yes 11¢
Mamma Mia! 2025-26 Coppa Italia Winner at Limitless
The 2025-26 Coppa Italia tournament is down to the last four clubs and the Semifinals with Leg 2’s scheduled to be plyed on April 21-22. In the two Leg 1’s, played on March 3-4, Lazio and Atalanta (2-2) and Inter Milan and Como (0-0) both tied, putting massive importance on the two Leg 2’s.
Lazio jumped out to a 1-0 lead in Rome in Leg 1 before Atalanta tied it. A goal at 87’ looked like the game-winner for the hosts, but Atalanta leveled 2 minutes later (89’) to set up the drama and a do-or-die match where it will enjoy the Home advantage. Como held Inter scoreless at home.
At the underrated prediction market Limitless, traders like Ange-Yoan Bonny (2 goals), Andy Diouf (2 goals), Marcus Thurman (2 goals) and Inter (45%) over Mario Pašalić (3 goals) and Atalanta (27%), Anastasios Douvikas and Como (17%), and Lazio (13%).
➤Trading Thoughts: In 2025, Bologna won the Italian Cup after Juventus (2024) and Inter (2023). In Italian Serie E play this year, Nerazzurri have been great (22-1-5) and Inter will be at Milan in Leg 2 and have more firepower and are te quedó grande for Como. Trading Pick: Inter, Yes 48¢
UCLA Faces UCF in NCAA Tourney Round 1 on Friday
The NCAA Men’s Tournament pares down from 64 to 32 teams with the 32 winning Round 1 games advancing on to play this weekend. On Friday night, #7-seed UCLA meets #10-seed UCF in the East Region at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia (TBS, 7:25 EDT/6:25 CDT/4:25 PDT).
The Bruins and Knights both made the Big Dance by getting at-large bids on Selection Sunday. UCLA enters with a 23-11 record (11-11 Big Ten) while the University of Central Florida (UCF) went 21-11 while playing in the toughest NCAA Basketball conference in the land (Big 12).
At DraftKings Predicts, traders like UCLA (-223) over UCF (+213) in the To Win market with UCLA -6.5 (-104) in the Point Spread market with the Total (Points) trading at 154.5 Under -133. Will UCLA win by 9.5 points or more seeing the ‘Yes’ trading at +170 with the ‘No’ at -194.
➤Trading Thoughts: This will be the first meeting ever between these two schools on the hardwood with both UCF and UCLA settling into new conferences after playing in the Conference USA and The American (UCF) and the Pac-12 (UCLA) conferences for so long.
Bruins HC Mick Cronin would make the Wizard of Westwood John Wooden proud, and UCLA should win here with a nice group of scorers in F Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 PPG), G Donovan Dent (13.5 PPG), G Trent Perry (12.7 PPG), G Skyy Clark (11.7 PPG), and Eric Dailey Jr (11.3 PPG).
In the last month, UCLA beat the then-ranked #7 (Michigan State), #8 (Nebraska), and #9 (Illinois) teams—all three also in the Big Dance from the loaded Big Ten. The Bruins should win and advance and not ruin brackets but winning by 7 here is a question mark. Trading Pick: UCLA -233 to Win
Purdue Meets Queens University in The Big Dance on Friday
On Friday night, the opening round of the 2026 Men’s Basketball Tournament continues with #15-seed Queens University (21-13) playing #2-seed Purdue (27-8) in the East Region at the Enterprise Center in St Louis, Missouri (truTV, 7:35 EDT/6:35 CDT/5:35 MDT/4:35 PDT).
HC Matt Painter (12-4-0 ATS NCAA First Round) and the Boilermakers and Royals both made the Big Dance by winning their conference tourneys (Big Ten, ASUN). If there weren’t play-in games, Queens (NC) may have been a #16 seed. NCAAB guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Royals at #181.
➤Trading Thoughts: This will be the first meeting ever between these two teams—Queens is in Charlotte, NC—like many other matchups we will see in this unique tournament. Purdue will have the big experience and sized edges and the Boilermakers can get scoring from a number of players.
G Braden Smith (14.0 PPG), G Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PPG), F Trey Kaufman-Renn (13.4 PPG), and C Oscar Cluff 10.3 PPG) lead a Purdue offense that averages 81.7 PPG (#65). The big question here with a 24.5 point spread (O/U 162.5), do the Boilermakers run up the score once they are up big?
Looking at Queens non-conference games, we see the Royals did get hammered by 20 (Villanova), 25 (Virginia), 38 (Wake Forest), 28 (Arkansas), and 41 (Auburn), so this could get ugly and would be a good game to back Purdue 1H for sports bettors. Betting Pick: Purdue -25.5 (FanDuel Predicts)
LAFC at Austin FC in Big MLS Match on Saturday Night
The new 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) continues with a nice Western Conference showdown between hosts Austin FC (1-1-1, 4 PTS) and LAFC (3-1-4, 9 GF-11 GA) at Q2 Stadium (Grass) in Austin, Texas on Saturday evening (FOX, Apple TV, 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/5:30 PDT).
Last year in the 2025 MLS Regular Season, the two clubs met three times with El Tree winning the first meeting in the Lone Star State on October 12 (1-0) before losing the next two at Lalaland on October 29 (2-1) and back in Austin again where the Green and Black were pounded, 4-1).
Soccer traders at Kalshi are backing visitors LAFC (50%) over Austin FC (27%) with a Draw trading at 29% with the Over 3.5 goals scored trading at No 74¢ with the Yes at 34¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Black and Gold are bolstered by two Tottenham Hotspur (EPL) veterans in French GK Hugo Lloris and F Son Heung-Min and have started off in fine form, allowing no goals in their first three games in 3-0 2-0, and 1-0 wins. Los Verdes won, tied, and then lost its first three.
In the last five meetings in this series, the two clubs are split 2-1-2 (W-D-L) with David Martínez (2 goals) and 2022 MLS champs LAFC winning the last two after winning the previous two—all in 2025—with the two sides drawing 1-1 in LA on September 18, 2024. Trading Pick: LAFC, Yes 50¢
NASCAR Goodyear 400 Races at Darlington on Sunday
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series sees the sixth race of the still young season go with the 2026 Goodyear 400 from the Darlington Raceway (Asphalt) in Darlington, South Carolins on Sunday, March 22 (TV—FS1, RADIO—MRN, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
Tyler Reddick made NASCAR history by winning the first three races of the NASCAR Cup Series season for his Michael Jordan-owned 23XI Racing Team, in Daytona, Florida (Daytona 500), Hampton, Georgia (Autotrader 400), and Austin, Texas (DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix).
Ryan Blaney won the fourth race of the season at Phoenix, the Straight Talk Wireless 500, breaking Reddick’s winning streak and last week the circuit stopped in Las Vegas. A year ago in the 2025 Goodyear 400, it was Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Christopher Bell who finished 1-2-3.
In the Goodyear 400 Winner? market at Kalshi, traders are giving last weekend’s winner Denny Hamlin the best chance (15%) of seeing the checkered flag followed by Kyle Larson (13%), Tyler Reddick (12%), Chase Briscoe (11%) and William Byron (11%).
Traders are also putting some stock in longer-shot contracts on NASCAR drivers Christopher Bell (10%), Ryan Blaney (9%), Chase Elliott (5%), Joey Logano (4%), Bubba Wallace (4%), Ty Gibbs (4%), Austin Cindric (3%), Carson Hocevar (3%), Chris Bueschler (3%) and Ross Chastain (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Hamlin won this race last year with Byron finishing in 2nd place and Bell in third and backing two of those again along with MJ’s ace and top-ranked Tyler Reddick (1-1-1-6-13) is the Rx. Trading Picks: Denny Hamlin 15¢, Tyler Reddick 12¢, Christopher Bell, 10¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll cover the opening of the 2026 MLB Regular Season with microanalysis on the AL and NL winners as well as the AL East and NL East winners markets, Who Will be the Next President of France?, SOL vs Silver, Who Will be the Browns starting QB?, the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner, the French Open Women’s Singles Winner, Who Will be the #1 Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?, and the Top 10 Finisher in All 4 PGA Majors market. Thank you for subscribing and best of luck.