After the Democrats swept last Tuesday’s Election Day 2025, capturing the New York City mayoral race and the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, it seems the expected wave against the party in power (the Republicans) has started growing like Sea Monkeys in water.
The US Midterm Election on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 will be the true test of whatever perceived Blue Wave has or hasn’t formed and despite controlling the White House, both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the majority of governorships, the GOP seems frazzled.
Which Party will win the House in 2026 ?
And prediction market traders at Polymarket in the Which Party Will Win the House in 2026? are sharing that sentiment, giving the Democratic Party a solid 70% chance of winning the House of Representatives a year from now when Americans head back to the ballot boxes. The Republicans were sitting at 30% (Yes 31¢).
➤With Trump recently suffering record negative approval ratings (55% Disapproval) in Newsweek’s tracker, inflation still running rampant, the record US government shutdown and other things, people on the street are under pressure and aren’t happy now. Donkeys over elephants.
Markets: Zelenskyy Will Stay in Power in Ukraine in 2026
The wisdom of the masses speaks through prediction markets and that’s good news for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy next year with traders at Polymarket driving the chances he leaves office next calendar year down to just 30% (Nov. 13) after peaking at 59% on August 18.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by 2026 ?
➤The approach here would require a bankroll and patience. The big question here for prediction market traders in the (Will Volodymyr) Zelenskyy be Out as Ukraine President by End of 2026? trade may be do you want to tie up some money in your portfolio 400 days buying “No” at 69¢?
How Many Cities Will Waymo Operate in by June 30, 2026?
Polymarket has a fun market in its Tech trading menu in the How Many Cities Will Waymo Operate in by June 30? (2026) sheet, with all eight markets getting some support as we leave the last week of November. What is Waymo?
Waymo One is a fully self-driving automobile service that serves up on-demand rides to users in pioneer cities Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix, operated by Waymo, an autonomous driving technology company headquartered in Mountain View, California by Google.
The Google Self-Driving Car Project has created the Waymo One which has no human driver and uses AI, cameras, lidar, and radar to try to safely navigate vehicles and pedestrians. Right now, 5 US cities have Waymos operating: LA, SF-Silicon Valley, Phoenix-Chandler, Atlanta, and Austin, Texas.
Passengers can order a Waymo via the Waymo app or through Uber, depending on the city. So when will the next city or cities to get Waymo come? Or will one of the current five cities say enough of this robotic autonomy on the roads with too many people in cars. Real humans.
Traders at Polymarket like 7 cities (19%) by June 30 of next year, followed by 6 cities (15%), 9 cities (14%), 10 cities (12%), 12 cities (12%), 8 cities (11%), 11 cities (8%), and ≤5 cities (9%).
➤What are the next cities who may get Waymo? Detroit, Las Vegas, and San Diego are expected to get the service in 2026 with Dallas, Miami, Nashville, and Washington, DC all also scheduled to get the futuristic vehicles with possible plans for Waymo in London, England also on the horizon.
Waymo
When Will Samsung Release its TriFold Phone?
There has been much hype about Samsung’s upcoming trifold phone, a three-screen product which actually just has two folds, expected to be released by the end of the year and possibly priced in the $3,000 to $3,500 range.
In Polymarket’s Will Samsung Release a TriFold Phone by...? marketplace, traders were leaning toward a later release date this month with (before) November 30 at only 4% with December 31 (83%) and January 31 (82%) seeing more ”Yes” contracts being sopped up like gravy by biscuits.
With Christmas coming, you can expect the suits at Samsung to want to get the TriFold into the marketplace as soon as possible so the “Yes” on December 31 at 84¢ may be worth a look now.
TriFold Phone
Will Kim Kardashian Pass the Bar Exam by May 3, 2026?
Kim Kardashian recently revealed she once again failed in her latest attempt to pass the California Bar Exam but said she has “no shortcuts, no giving up” on her now six-year long legal journey.
The popular Reality TV star and oldest daughter of the late lawyer Robert Kardashian, Kim has already passed the “Baby Bar” (2021, on her fourth attempt), the MPRE ethics exam (2015), but failed the rigorous two-day Full California Bar Exam in July.
➤Kardashian will try again, and the next bar exams in the Golden State bar exams are scheduled for February 2026 and July 26. This is an important window with the Will Kim Kardashian Pass the Bar Exam by May 3? market at Polymarket as it means just one more chance for her now.
This market plummeted from 51% on Monday (November 10) with the digestion of this latest news. Currently, the “No” contracts are ruling the day after this latest announcement with 16% on “Yes” (Yes 16¢, No 84¢). Polymarket traders also give Kim a 1% chance of being president in 2028.
Trump Mentions Market with Saudi PM on November 18
The popularity of Mentions markets continues to grow in prediction trading with things like press Q&A’s, companies’ earning reports, Taylor Swift interviews on talk shows, sports announcers on some primetime games, and press conferences with President Trump.
In the Polymarket offering What Will Trump Say During Saudi PM Events on November 18?, traders can back Yes-No outcomes on what Trump will say when Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud—the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince and PM—visits Washington, DC on Tuesday November 18.
➤Trump and heir apparent to the Saudi throne MbS are expected to discuss a number of things including Abraham Accords and US-Saudi defense agreements, the recent Saudi Arabian request to buy up to 48 F-35’s, and investment announcements. Abraham Accords and F-35 seem good.
When Trump visited Riyadh in May, the US agreed to sell Saudi Arabia a $142 billion arms package. Here are the words or phrases traders at Kalshi are trading on to be said or not to be said:
❖ Abraham Accords 78%
❖ F-35 76%
❖ Friend of mine 64%
❖ Rich country/Richest country 63%
❖ Hamas 59%
❖ Hottest 58%
❖ AI/Artificial Intelligence 56%
❖ Million/Billion/Trillion 12+ times 56%
❖ Biden 4+ times 46%
❖ Princess 42%
❖ Thank you 10+ times 42%
❖ Palestine/Palestinian 41%
❖ Board of Peace 39%
❖ Israel/Gaza 7+ times 39%
❖ Strong peace 34%
❖ Every Arab 32%
❖ Phase Two 30%
❖ India 29%
❖ Moon 12%
2026 World Baseball Classic Winner a Two Nation Race?
The (2026 World Baseball) Classic Winner market at Kalshi is a nice futures exchange on which nation will prevail at the annual international baseball tournament set for March 5-17 in the US and Japan. Samurai Japan are the defending WBC champions, beating the USA last year.
Traders at Kalshi think the United States (37%) will win this time around, with 28% banking on Japan to defend its crown, with the Dominican Republican the traders’ third choice ( 17% ) followed by Puerto Rico (9%), Venezuela (7%), Mexico (7%), and South Korea (1%).
China failed to qualify for the 2026 WBC after losing three straight qualifying games.
Classic Winner?
➤The best information to work with here are past winners, the sites, and who each nation will eventually have on their national rosters. In the last choppy history of the WBC, Japan is the only country to have won multiple times and expect the Nippon Warriors to be impressive again.
In international play in 2025, Japan is a perfect 2-0, beating Netherlands twice and outscoring them 14-0 in the process in Friendlies in March. Japan hosts Korea for two games at the Tokyo Dome this Saturday-Sunday, November 15-16 as the Samurai Warriors tune up for the 2026 WBC.
With a potential roster of players like MLB superstar Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Seiya Suzuki (Cubs), Munetaka Murakami (Tokyo Yakult Swallows), Kazuma Okamoto (Yomiuri Giants), Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox), Lars Nootbaar (Cards), Tatsuya Imai (Seibu Lions) and Shugo Maki (Yokohama DeNA BayStars), this is the contract you should buy now while it’s still priced at 31¢.
And Japan’s pitching staff could be stacked with the 1-2-3 Dodgers punch of Ohtani Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Rōki Sasaki, and guys like Yu Darvish, Shosei Togo, Hiromi Itoh, Hiroya Miyagi, and reliever Taisei Ota. It’s no wonder no one scored off them yet this calendar year.
World Baseball Classic
NBA Eastern Conference Champion Anyone’s to Win?
The 2024-25 NBA Regular Season is a month in and we are starting to see who might be contenders and which teams may be flops this season across the world’s most popular professional basketball league.
Looking at the Eastern Conference Champion? market at Kalshi, we currently see a Cavaliers (30%), Knicks (20%), 76ers (11%), Pistons (10%), Magic (9%), Bucks (8%), Hawks (6%), Celtics (6%), Heat (6%), Bulls (3%), Raptors (2%), and Pacers (2%) in trading order as of November 13.
Despite many having shots at winning the East, we can toss out the Wizards, Nets, Hornets and Pacers, off to a combined 6-35 start with the defending conference champ Indiana without Tyrese Haliburton all season after suffering an Achilles tendon injury in Game 7 of the 2024 NBA Finals.
NBA Eastern Conference
➤The skinny: Over the last 16 seasons, only six teams have won the Eastern Conference with the Heat (6), Celtics (3), and Cavaliers (3) the only multiple winners. Despite the Pistons (10-2, W8) getting off to a flying start, the three teams I would look at and why?
The Knicks (Yes 20¢) because NY (7-4) is mad about how it lost to the Pacers in the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals; the Heat (Yes 7¢) for Miami’s (7-4) track record and the incredible value of possibly turning 6 cents into a dollar; and, the Celtics (Yes 6¢), also for the perceived value.
#24 Pitt Welcomes #10 Notre Dame on Saturday
Some FBS Regular Season games in November are essentially playoffs, and the Top 25 showdown between No. 10 Notre Dame (7-2) and No. 24 Pittsburgh (7-2) at Acrisure Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania early on Saturday (ABC, 12 EST/9 PST) is one of those.
Many have questioned CJ Carr, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and the Fighting Irish’s place in the national rankings and the CFP, with ND having already suffered losses to Miami (FLA) and Texas A&M in their first two games of the season.
Prediction market traders at Polymarket heavily like Notre Dame (80¢) to defeat Pitt (21¢) in this one with the Point Spread trading at ND -12.5 (51¢) a day before kickoff and the Over/Under (Total points) at 55.5 (Over 50¢, Under 53¢).
➤Some data for those trading in this game: ND have won 7 straight heading in and the last 4 meetings in this series, the last two by 51 and 42 points. The Fighting Irish are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and have won the last two meetings played in the Steel City.
The weather in Pittsburgh will be cloudy with temperatures around 50°. The feeling here is that WRs Jordan Faison (43 receptions, 3 TD), Malachi Fields (19.9 YPC, 3 TD), Will Pauling (17.2 YPC, 5 TD) and the Tackling Leprechauns will score much at The House Formerly Known As Heinz Field.
Heinz Field
#4 Alabama Hosts #12 Oklahoma in SEC on Saturday
The NCAAF Week 12 SEC game between No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2 SEC) and No. 4 Alabama (8-1, 6-0 SEC) from Bryant-Denny Stadium (Grass) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama on Saturday afternoon (ABC, 3:30 EST/12:30 PST) is huge for the sooners as a loss will likely end any chances of making the CFP.
In the last CFP rankings out Tuesday, John Mateer and Oklahoma were still on the outside looking in, but an upset win here over Ty Simpson, Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and the Tide in enemy territory would go a really long way to restoring hope in Norman. Talk about a “quality win.”
But College Football traders at Kalshi are behind the Crimson Tide, trading Alabama at 68¢ in this showdown with Oklahoma at 33¢ one day before kickoff. The Point Spread was Alabama -6.5 at Kalshi with the Over/Under (Total) at 45.5 points (Over 53¢, Under 51¢).
ALABAMA CRIMSONTIDE
➤Some information for those trading in this OK-ALA market: Alabama is on an 8-game win streak after losing to Florida State in the season opener. Oklahoma (#7, 14.1 PPG) and Alabama (#13, 17.2 PPG) have two of the best Scoring Defenses in FBS, so scoring could come at a premium.
Oklahoma leads the all-time series, 4-1 and the Sooners won in the 2024 NCAAF Regular Season, beating Alabama 24-3 in Norman in the first meeting between the two schools since Oklahoma joined the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The Tide have an impressive +1.2 Turnover Margin.
The collective wisdom of the masses likes the host Crimson Tide here, but beware of a Sooners side that has everything to lose here and a team with a much-improved D. Oklahoma is also a perfect 3-0 on the road and the Sooners won their only previous trip to Tuscaloosa (20-13, 2003).
Bucs in Buffalo For an Interconference Clash on Sunday
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (6-3-0) head to Highmark Stadium (A-Turf Titan 50) in Orchard Park, NY to face the Bills (6-3-0) in an NFL Week 11 meeting in the Empire State where the Sunshine State visitors may face some harsh conditions (CBS, 1 EST/12 CT/10 PST).
In Week 10 action, Josh Allen and the Bills were upset by the Dolphins, 30-13 in Miami Gardens in a game which saw Buffalo trailing 16-0 at halftime. Tampa Bay also lost, falling to upstart New England at home in Tampa, 28-23 as New England improved to 5-0 on the road.
Polymarket TB-BUF traders are looking for the Bills to rebound, with Buffalo trading at 20¢ two days before kickoff with Tampa Bay at 30¢. The Point Spread sees the Bills -6.5 (53¢) with the Over/Under (Total) trading at 49.5 (Over 47¢, Under 57¢).
➤In the last 10 series meetings between the Bills and the Bucs, TB is 8-5-0 vs Buffalo. For traders, two big things to weigh if considering backing a side and/or the Total here. The first thing? The home team has won 7 straight times in this series with the last road team winning back in 1991.
The second thing? The weather. For a team from Florida, playing in upstate NY in November sucks. The Sunday forecast from TWC calls for a “steady light rain in the morning, showers continuing in the afternoon” with a high of 46°, brisk 20 mph winds, and a 70% chance of rain in the Queen City.
Big NFC West Showdown in Los Angeles on Sunday
Matthew Stafford and the Rams (7-2-0) play host to Sam Darnold and the Seahawks (7-2-0) at SoFi Stadium (Matrix Turf) in Inglewood, California for a big NFC West showdown between first-place teams in NFL Week 11 on Sunday afternoon (FOX, 4:05 EST/1:05 PST).
In Week 10, both LA and Seattle upped their win streaks to 4 games. Stafford threw for four TDs for a fourth straight game as the Rams beat the 49ers, 42-26 in Santa Clara while the Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 44-22 in Seattle in another NFC West game, jumping out to an early 35-0 lead.
Kalshi NFL traders are mixed here, with the host Rams predicted to win (60% chance) over the Seahawks (40%) in a game that will leave the winner alone in first place in the division. The two teams will meet again Week 16 in Seattle (Dec, 18) in what will be an even more important clash.
➤Some alpha for SEA-LA traders: Seattle is a perfect 4-0 on the road this season but the Seahawks are just 7-13-0 in the last 20 series meetings and 3-6-0 the last 9. LA and Seattle are both tied with the best Against The Spread (ATS) records in the NFL at 7-2-0 (77.8% win rate).
Sometimes in prediction market trading and sports betting, it’s better to just enjoy a game where you feel there is no edge in backing either side, and stay away. There is never anything wrong with not making a trade and every single market doesn’t need to be traded. This one should be fun.
