On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump authorized the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to operate inside of the South American nation of Venezuela in a covert effort to stifle the flow of illegal drugs and migrants to the US.
The comments were the president’s most revealing about possible CIA authority in the future in Venezuela. The US has already carried out several strikes on boats said to have drugs on them just off the coast of Venezuela.
The Pentagon recently told Congress the president has determined that the US is currently engaged in “a non-international armed conflict” with the drug cartels worldwide.
But will the US involvement in Venezuela ever escalate to the level of military engagement? The US x Venezuela Military Engagement By...? market at Polymarket gives some clues to what may transpire with two future dates below 50% and one above that mark.
US х Venezuela
Traders in the October 31 date were giving a conflict only a 22% chance with a November 30 date at 45%. But the December 31 market was up 10% to 56% on Thursday, October 15 with Trump’s announcement possibly fueling some traders’ fires.
There are three major things at play in this prediction market: Trump’s aggressiveness, Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro’s use of his military to fight back, and good old history. The last major US invasion in South America was in 1989 with the invasion of Panama (Operation Just Cause).
A man seeking the Nobel Peace Prize probably won’t want to start a meaningless conflict.
Traders See Possible Recessions in UK, Germany, Japan
It seems the US will avoid a Recession this year (6% chance, Kalshi) and maybe even a Recession before 2027 (36%), but traders at Kalshi are leaning to the US allies United Kingdom (60%), Japan (57%), and Germany (53%) headed toward one.
A recession is defined as two straight quarters of negative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. For example, if Germany were to have two consecutive quarters with a loss of GDP growth, then that market would resolve to a “Yes” in the Which Countries Will Have a Recession?
After the UK, Japan, and Germany, traders weren’t banking much on any other major country in the world having a Recession with the planet’s two largest nations, China and India, both trading at 15% on October, 15, 2025.
Possible Recessions in UK, Japan, Germany
Alan Taylor, a Bank of England rate-setter said there was a small possibility that the UK was headed toward a Recession, but suggested a ”a bumpy landing” where inflation returns to the 2% target is more likely.
But Taylor also did not rule out the possibility of a “hard landing” (inflation) in the UK.
"The economy has been flirting with zero growth, and the realization of negative readings could easily change the future path for the worse," Taylor said. "The probability of this outcome is now not trivial."
Connolly Seen as Next Irish President by Traders
Traders at Kalshi did an about-face and now are all over Catherine Connolly (83%, +9%) over Heather Humphreys in the (17%, -9%) in the upcoming 2025 Irish presidential election to be held in a week on Friday, October 24, 2025.
On Sept, 22, traders were backing Fine Gael party candidate Humphreys at almost 50% with Independent Connolly getting just 10.0% in the Irish Presidential Election Winner? offering, but on Oct. 14, Connolly was at 83% and looking like a sure thing to become Ireland’s 10th president.
Next Irish President by Traders
The current incumbent president is Michael D. Higgins—who assumed office on 11/11/11—a poet who has served the maximum of two terms already permitted under the Constitution of Ireland. Like Connolly, Higgins is also an Independent.
Charismatic Irish boxer Conor McGregor—a Dublin native—temporarily threw his hat into the ring but decided to withdraw with most seeing the pugilist as a huge longshot to even make the ballot.
A Tasty Chipotle Earnings Call Mentions Market?
A cool offering at Kalshi is the What Will Chipotle Say During Their Next Earnings Call? Mentions market which features about 10 words or phrases traders can place “Yes” or “No” orders on.
The Chipotle Third Quarter Earnings call is scheduled for 4:30 pm EDT on Wednesday, October 29 and will cover all 3Q financial results and provide a business update for the Fourth Quarter.
Here are the Mentions and their chances on October 16, two weeks before the earnings call:
● Chipotle Lane/Chipotlane 93%
● Supply Chain 90%
● Transaction Growth 89%
● Honey Chicken 89%
● Promotion 85%
● Wage Inflation 82%
● Share Purchase 78%
● Carne Asada 74%
● Autocado 54%
● Automation 34%
"Chipotle Lane” is the name of a Christmas promotion the chain ran last year while “Autocado” is a robot that was used to make guacamole in just 26 seconds but was taken out of Chipotle after two months after experts warned the processing cobotic (collaborative robot) would replace humans.
Chipotle Mexican Grill has its headquarters located in Newport Beach, California. Founder Steve Ells opened the first Chipotle in a Dolly Madison Ice Cream store at 1644 East Evans Avenue near the University of Denver campus after receiving an $85,000 loan from his father back in 1993.
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Will Litecoin ETF Be Approved in 2025?
Bloomberg analysts announced that asset manager Canary Capital has submitted S-1 amendments for its Litecoin (LTC) and Hedera (HBAR) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a move seen as one of the final steps before a launch.
The proposed ticker symbols were also revealed by Canary Capital with the Litecoin ETF as LTCC and the Hedera ETF as HBR.
Litecoin
But with the timing of the review process by the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) murky and the ongoing US government shutdown, who knows if it will be “Yes” or “No” in the Limitless Litecoin ETF Approved in 2025?
Optimism was running high by Limitless traders Litecoin ETF approval with traders assigning a strong 88.6% probability (Yes 85¢, No 18¢) the product will get regulatory approval by 2025.
Swift Sets New Kalshi Music Market Volume Record
Taylor Swift seems to do everything big these days, and the 35-year-old American singer set a new music market trading volume record on Kalshi in the Will Taylor Swift Occupy All Top 12 Spots on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart for Oct. 18th? market with (at least) $5,350,164 of volume.
The previous record was set two weeks earlier in the Super Bowl Halftime Headliner market. For context, the total betting handle for Super Bowl 25 was a little over $40 million. It’s easy to see how popular prediction markets have become.
Swift is involved in so many markets on Kalshi she even has her own page. She will try to break her own volume record in the Will Taylor Swift Occupy All Top 6 Songs on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart for October 25th?, but the second week of album releases are always a step back.
How Many Will Have a Neuralink Implant in 2025?
The brain implant company created by Elon Musk, Neuralink, has already provided 12 people worldwide with its N1 implant with the first seven announced by partner Barrow Neurological Institute earlier in the year.
The surgically placed Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) in the skull are used to control digital and physical tools through simple thought. Neuralink was hoping to have 20 to 30 implants in the year, and with two-and-a-half months to go, we will see what the final number is.
Neuralink Omplant
Traders in Kalshi’s How Many People Will Neuralink Have Implanted This Year? are backing at least three more to be announced by year’s end with some lower levels getting more demand than the higher levels with the calendar quickly ticking down on another year.
The At least 15 market was given an 88% chance by traders, followed by At least 20 (71%), At least 30 (21%), At least 100 (10%), and At least 50 (7%).
Heisman Trophy Winner Market Has Great Upside
Traders in the Kalshi Heisman Trophy Winner? market are favoring Miami Florida QB Carson Beck (23%) and Alabama QB Ty Simpson (22%) in the race for College Football’s most coveted individual award, but history teaches us that this is still up for grabs and 20 guys could win it.
The trader’s third choice, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (18%) has 17 passing TD and just 2 interceptions after the Hoosiers upset #8 Oregon in Eugene in Week 7, and the 6-foot-5, 225-pound junior from Miami seems to be a great “Yes” buy at 18¢.
Fernando Mendoza
Another guy worth taking a look while there is no clear cut final five is Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (3%, Yes 3¢). Why? The #4 Aggies are unbeaten and look like they could make the College Football Playoff (CFP) and Reed (16 TD/4 Interceptions) can also run with the football (186 yards, 3 TD).
The 2025 Heisman Trophy Ceremony will be held at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York on Saturday, December 13 (ESPN, 8 EST/5 PST). The Heisman Trophy is determined by a vote of 870 media members, 57 former Heisman Trophy winners, and one fan vote. Ballots go out on Dec. 1.
Big Saturday of Showdowns in NCAAF Week 8
There are many exciting CFB Week 7 games this weekend, including a big SEC showdown between QB Diego Pavia and #17 Vanderbilt (5-1) and QB Garrett Nussmeier and #10 LSU (5-1) at FirstBank Stadium (Shaw Sports Legion 46) in Nashville early Saturday (ABC, 12 EDT/9 PDT).
In this game Polymarket traders like the Commodores at 54¢ over the visiting Tigers at 47¢ on Thursday. In the Point Spread market, Vanderbilt -2.5 is 51¢ with LSU +2.5 at 50¢ with the Over 49.5 49¢ and the Under 49.5 54¢ in the Totals market.
When these two teams played last season at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, the Tigers won 24-17 and LSU has won the last five series meetings with four of those five going Under the Total.
SEC
In another SEC game, #21 Texas (4-2) travels to Kroger Field (SS Synthetic Turf) in Lexington, Kentucky to face Kentucky (2-3) on Saturday night (ESPN, 7 EDT/4 PDT). Traders at Polymarket early Thursday were favoring the Longhorns at 61¢ over the Wildcats at 21¢ .
The Point Spread saw Texas -12.5 at 80¢ (+39¢ from Monday) with Kentucky +12.5 at 21¢ and the Total at Over 42.5 at 53¢ with the Under 42.5 trading at 49¢. With Arch Manning and the Longhorns recently joining the SEC, these two haven’t met much with Texas winning 31-14 at home in Austin last season.
Liverpool Looks to Snap Losing Streak vs MUFC Sunday
Defending English Premier League (EPL) champions Liverpool (5-0-2) welcome 10th-place Manchester United (3-1-3) to Anfield (GrassMaster) in Liverpool, Merseyside, England for a big Matchweek 8 match for both clubs on Sunday (USA Network, 11:30 EDT/8:30 PDT).
The now 2nd-place Reds (15 points) are in the midst of a three-game losing streak in all competitions, losing their last two in the EPL (Crystal Palace, Chelsea) and a UEFA Champions League Group Stage match at Galatasaray (1-0). Liverpool has scored two goals in three games.
Bruno Fernandes and the Red Devils (10 points) have alternated wins and losses in their seven EPL fixtures on the Road this 2025-26 Premier League season, MUFC is a winless 0-2-5 (7 GF-17 GA) so this seems like a good opportunity to back Mo Salah and the host Reds.
Traders in the Kalshi EPL Soccer market were giving Liverpool a healthy 60% chance of winning this showdown with Manchester United at 20% and a Draw (Tie) at 23%.
In the last five meetings between these two, Liverpool is 2-2-1 with the two playing to a 2-2 stalemate last time they played in EPL action last season. There were at least three goals scored in those five games (7, 4, 3, 3, 4) so the Total (goals) Over may also be worth some consideration.
Kalshi Traders Like Verstappen in US Grand Prix Sunday
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen (273 points) isn’t out of the Formula One World Championship Drivers’ standings in third place, but catching McLaren’s Oscar Piastri (336 points) and second-place Lando Norris (314 points) means he will have to be near-perfect from here on out.
Motorsports traders at Kalshi in the market United States Grand Prix Winner? are behind Verstappen (32%, Yes 32¢, No 69¢) over teammates Piastri (29%, Yes 29¢, No 72¢) and Norris (26%, Yes 27¢, No 74¢) this weekend’s Round 19 in the Lone Star State.
Besides the three usual suspects, F1 traders have backed George Russell (7%), Charles Leclerc (5%), and F1 living legend Lewis Hamilton (2%) in the MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas on Sunday (ABC, 3 EDT/12 PDT).
49ers Host Falcons in NFC Collision on SNF
The Atlanta Falcons (3-2-0) head west to the Golden State to lock facemasks with the San Francisco 49ers (4-2-0) at Levi’s Stadium (Tifway II Bermuda Grass) in Santa Clara, California in a great Sunday Night Football Week 7 matchup from the West Coast (NBC, 8;15 EDT/5:15 PDT).
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson was more than impressive in Atlanta’s upset win over the Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6, rushing for 170 yards and a TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday. Expect the Dirty Birds to give the ball to Robinson a lot in this one.
NFL traders on the Polymarket prediction market are leaning to Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers to win at 55¢ with the Falcons at 46¢ early on Thursday. In the Point Spread market, SF was -4.5 39¢ with Atlanta +4.5 65¢ with the Total at Over 47.5 51¢, Under 45.5 52¢, up 2 from open.
Taking the defensively improved Falcons (100 PA, 2nd best in NFC) to pull off another upset may be a wise trade and grabbing the 4.5 points (if still available) behind QB Michael Penix also seems like a good idea with potential hedging possibilities in-game.
Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.