Polymarket Return to the USImminent

Almost four years after being banned by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC, popular cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket relaunched in the US on Thursday, Oct. 2 after receiving regulatory approval from the independent agency of the US government.

In July, Polymarket acquired the crypto derivatives exchange QCX LLC for $112 million—now Polymarket US—opening up the doors for the prediction market giant to return to the US.

By gaining a Designated Contract Market license, Polymarket has the ability again to self-certify trading markets in maybe the world’s biggest trading country, the United States. Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction trading markets in the world.

Polymarket was still readying the platform to go live again in the US heading into this new week.

Going live during the NFL and NCAA College Football season should be massive for Polymarket ($773 million trading volume in September) with so many prediction contract traders gravitating to Sports markets.

Kalshi recently rocketed past Polymarket in trading volume and Kalshi’s with huge volume in September ($1.3 billion)—reportedly 90% sports—so you know Polymarket wants back in while there is still over four months left in the NFL season and other sports ready to start their seasons.

Polymarket’s live return will change much for prediction market traders living in the US.

Polymarket traders can now enjoy live-streaming prediction market content straight to their devices by embedding Polymarket’s new tickers into their streams.

Here is where you can access the Polymarket ticker. You can DM Polygon if you need support.

The real-time ticker, similar to what you see on CNBC and in sportsbooks, is refreshed every 2 minutes and it can be integrated seamlessly with Streamlabs, OBS, and more software.

The sleek design and breakdown by categories allows users to see one or all categories and keep a watchful eye on prediction markets at Polymarket on its Polygon blockchain network where participants can deposit USDC to trade on various future outcomes.

  Twitter

Popular prediction market Polymarket is offering a trending When Will the Government Shutdown End? market for the platform’s traders. The US government shut down on Oct. 1 and it is uncertain how long this one will last.

Twelve of the last 15 Government funding gaps and shutdowns have happened under Republican administrations with the last three all happening when Donald Trump was in the White House (2018, 2018-2019, 2025).

Traders at Polymarket were backing an October 15 or later date (71%, up 32%, Yes 71¢, No 30¢) on Monday, with October 10-14 the second choice (24%, Yes 24¢, No 77¢), followed by October 6-9 (5%, Yes 71¢, No 82¢). October 1-2 and October 3-5 were already resolved as “No.”

This is the 20th US government shutdown since 1970 but prolonged shutdowns are relatively rare. The last one came for 34 days (December 2018 to January 2019) when a disagreement for funding for President Trump’s border wall occurred in Congress.

Twitter

 Which Chamber Will Move First on a Funding Bill?

Polymarket also offers the Which Chamber Will Move First on a Funding Bill?, a two-chamber market between the US Senate (41% chance on October 8, Senate 43¢) and the US House of Representatives (House 62¢) on who will move first on the funding bill in Washington, DC.

This market flipped this weekend after the Senate peaked at an 83% chance on Oct. 3, traders suddenly gobbled up House of Representative contracts on Oct. 4, cutting the Senate’s chances of acting first and now having more confidence in the 435-seat House.

With no progress being made by either chamber and no quick resolution in sight, the sentiment of traders is that this government shutdown could last longer than most first anticipated. It’s hard to see much progress this week with the stances both sides are taking at the moment.

It’s never too early to look at future Awards markets, and Polymarket already has the Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner market up and One Battle After Another is the prohibitive favorite with a 64% chance (Yes 65¢, No 37¢) of getting that coveted little solid bronze statue next spring.

Things will obviously change with many new movies coming out in the fall and winter. Films with over 2% of “Yes” contracts on October 6 were Hamnet (19%), Sinners (6%), Marty Supreme (3%), and Sentimental Value (2%). Avatar: Fire and Ash was given a 1% chance.

YouTube

In the Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner market, it’s One Battle After Another director Paul Thomas Anderson (Yes 79¢, No 24¢) getting backing from Polymarket traders at 78% with Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) behind at 8% (Yes 9¢, No 93¢), then Joachim Trier at 5%.

Besides One Battle After Another, Anderson has directed many impressive movies, including Boogie Knights (1997), Magnolia (1999), The Master (2012), Licorice Pizza (2021), There Will Be Blood (2007), Inherent Vice (2014), and Phantom Thread (2017).

The 98th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 15, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in the Hollywood neighborhood of Los Angeles, California with Conan O’Brien serving as host (ABC, 7 EDT/4 PDT), Oscar nominees will come out on Thursday, January 22, 2026.

Kalshi always offers up a cool Top US Netflix Movie This Week? Market, and although the Netflix charts are updated every Tuesday (for the week ending the previous Sunday), let’s look at the two-film race that was last week on the popular streaming service.

KPop Demon Hunters was #1 (87%, Yes 85¢, No 68¢) on Netflix, way ahead of Ruth & Boaz at a distant #2 (17%, Yes 41¢, No 82¢).

Twitter

Produced by Tyler Perry, Ruth & Boaz is the story of a singer (Serayah) who leaves the music scene in Atlanta to start over in a small town in Tennessee where she finds love (Teler Lepley) as well as a new purpose in her life by helping an elderly widowed woman (Phylicia Rashad).

Kalshi always offers up a cool Top US Netflix Movie This Week? Market, and although the Netflix charts are updated every Tuesday (for the week ending the previous Sunday), let’s look at the two-film race that was last week on the popular streaming service.

KPop Demon Hunters was #1 (87%, Yes 85¢, No 68¢) on Netflix, way ahead of Ruth & Boaz at a distant #2 (17%, Yes 41¢, No 82¢).

Twitter

Produced by Tyler Perry, Ruth & Boaz is the story of a singer (Serayah) who leaves the music scene in Atlanta to start over in a small town in Tennessee where she finds love (Teler Lepley) as well as a new purpose in her life by helping an elderly widowed woman (Phylicia Rashad).

Earlier this year in July, Norwegian Magnus Carlsen—who was the youngest Grandmaster ever at age 13—defeated ChatGPT without losing a single piece with ChatGPT losing all of its pawns.

No LLMs have ever beaten a human in chess as they are not designed with the specialized logic needed to carry out strategic gameplay like a Grandmaster. AI has beaten humans though, with IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer defeating world champion Garry Kasparov back in 1997.

Since then, more advanced chess programs like Deep Mind’s AlphaZero and Stockfish have way exceeded human’s ability to excel in the board game. This outcome will be determined “No.”

Twitter

Earlier this year in July, Norwegian Magnus Carlsen—who was the youngest Grandmaster ever at age 13—defeated ChatGPT without losing a single piece with ChatGPT losing all of its pawns.

No LLMs have ever beaten a human in chess as they are not designed with the specialized logic needed to carry out strategic gameplay like a Grandmaster. AI has beaten humans though, with IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer defeating world champion Garry Kasparov back in 1997.

Since then, more advanced chess programs like Deep Mind’s AlphaZero and Stockfish have way exceeded human’s ability to excel in the board game. This outcome will be determined “No.”

Twitter

The CFTC commented on “sports-related event contracts” last week, acknowledging them in a staff advisory note, and warning of potential bad things in some states but we will see where it all leads and is the highest court in the land will ever get involved.

Twitter

Kalshi Traders Divided on NHL Stanley Cup Winner

The puck drops on the 2025-26 NHL Regular Season tonight (Tuesday, October 7) with an Opening Night tripleheader on ESPN featuring Chicago at defending champions Florida (5 EDT), Pittsburgh at the Rangers at MSG (8 EDT), and Colorado at Los Angeles (10:30 EDT).

Kalshi offers the Pro Hockey Champion? Yes-No prediction market which on Monday morning saw five teams all being given a 10% chance by traders of winning pro sports most famous trophy.

That quintet included the two-time defending champion Florida Panthers (Yes 11¢, No 91¢), the Carolina Hurricanes (Yes 11¢, No 91¢), the Edmonton Oilers (Yes 10¢, No 91¢), the Vegas Golden Knights (Yes 10¢, No 91¢), and the Tampa Bay Lightning (Yes 10¢, No 91¢).

Following these teams in this long-term (9 months) futures market were the Colorado Avalanche (8%), Dallas Stars (8%), New Jersey Devils (5%), and Toronto Maple Leafs (5%), followed by the Western Conference’s Los Angeles Kings (4%), Winnipeg Jets (4%), and Minnesota Wild (3%).

The last time a team from Canada won the Stanley Cup was way back in 1993 when Patrick Roy and the Montréal Canadiens beat the Kings.

Click here to trade on Kalshi NHL markets

Not all prediction markets are King Kong and Godzilla, and the Myriad Markets is a nice little decentralized platform where users can earn rewards on the blockchain for participating in predictions like Myriad Points and USDC stablecoin.

Myriad has some fun markets like Which Token Will Launch First?, Up or Down?, and New Fartcoin All-TimeHigh By the End of the Year? But we are looking at the Will the Los Angeles Dodgers Win the 2025 MLB World Series? Offering.

Even though Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers swept the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card Round, traders here were still pessimistic with an NLDS date with Bryce Harper and the Phillies on tap.

Should Los Angeles get by Philadelphia in this round and by the winner of the Brewers-Cubs series in the NLCS, then a shot at a second straight championship becomes a real possibility with the AL looking a bit weaker on the diamond than the NL this season.

But if we do get a Dodgers-Yankees rematch in the Fall Classic, don’t expect Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers to go so gently into the night this time around with manager Dave Roberts and the Los Doyers having some serious bullpen problems in Lalaland this year.

With the Phillies and maybe the Brewers and Yankees or Blue Jays the potential path to a repeat, you can see why the “No” had 69.1% with the “Yes” at 30.9% (+9.2%) in this market after Los Angeles won Game 1 of its NLDS series in the 2025 MLB Playoffs vs the Phillies on Saturday.

Twitter

Click here to trade on Myriad Markets

Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles (4-1-0) head to MetLife Stadium (FieldTurf Core HD) in East Rutherford, NJ to bang helmets with the New York Giants (1-4-0) in an NFL Week 6 NFC East battle on Thursday night (Prime Video, 8:15 EDT/5:15 PDT).

In Week 5 play, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles lost to the Broncos in Philadelphia to fall from the rank of the undefeated on Sunday while rookie Jaxson Dart and the Giants fell to the Saints in New Orleans.

NFL traders in the Kalshi football market give Philadelphia a solid 77% chance of winning this game with New York at 23%. Sportsbooks have the Eagles—winners of 20 of their last 22 games—as 7.5-point favorites with the Total (points) at 41.5.

Taking a look at the last 20 meetings between these two, we see that Philadelphia is 16-4, winning six of the last seven in the rivalry. The Eagles haven’t played that great this 2025-26 NFL Regular season, yet find themselves unbeaten and seen as the team to beat by the rest of the league.

Click here to trade on Kalshi NFL markets

NCAA College Football traders on Kalshi are in for a treat this Saturday, October 11 with a number of exciting matchups in Week 7 including four big matchups between CFP-hungry teams.

The first big showdown sees No. 1 Ohio State (5-0) facing No. 17 Illinois (5-1) at Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Champaign, IL (FOX, 12 ET/9 PT) in a huge Big Ten test for Jeremiah Smith and the defending national champs. Kalshi traders favored the Buckeyes, 84%-16% five days out.

In a fun SEC matchup, No. 14 Missouri (5-0) hosts No. 8 Alabama (4-1) at another Memorial Stadium (AstroTurf), this one in Columbia, MO (ABC, 12 ET/9 PT), where the Tigers are 5-0 in 2025. Last year, the Crimson Tide blanked Mizzou, 34-0 in Tuscaloosa, scoring in every quarter.

Early Monday, Kalshi traders were giving Alabama a 58% chance of winning with Mizzou at 42%.

Another Big Ten must-see game has No. 2 Oregon (5-0) welcoming No. 7 Indiana (5-0) to Autzen Stadium (FieldTurf) in Eugene Oregon (CBS, 3;30 ET/12:30 PT) for a game with certain CFP implications. This will be the first matchup between these two in the Big Ten Conference.

Kalshi traders like Heisman Trophy candidate Dante Moore and the Ducks (2-1 lifetime vs ILL) here, giving the home team a 71% chance of a winning outcome on Saturday afternoon over the Hoosiers (29%).

The Red River Rivalry sees No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) playing now unranked Texas (3-2) at the historic Cotton Bowl (Grass) in Dallas, Texas (CBS, 3;30 ET/12:30 PT) in a pivotal Big 12 Conference game in the Lone Star State. Kalshi traders liked the Longhorns 55%-45% when the market first opened.

The Longhorns lead the series 64-51-5 but the Sooners have gone 7-3 the last 10, although they did lose to then No. 1-ranked Texas last season, 34-3 in the first meeting between the two historic college football programs in the loaded SEC.

Click here to trade on Kalshi College Football markets

Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens (1-4-1) are suddenly a very bad football team after losses to the Bills in the season opener, the Lions, the defending AFC champion Chiefs, and now the Week 5 loss to the Texans in Crab City with starting QB Lamar Jackson injured.

In Week 6 play, the Ravens welcome Matt Stafford, Puka Nacua, and the Los Angeles Rams (3-2-0) to M&T Bank Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Baltimore, Maryland on Sunday afternoon (FOX, 1 EDT/10 PDT) in a huge game for both sides.

Traders in the Kalshi football NFL market are giving Baltimore a paltry 23% chance of winning this game in Baltimore with Los Angeles at 77%. Sportsbooks have the Rams as 7.5-point favorites with the Total (points) sitting at 45.5.

In the nine meetings between these two teams, the Ravens are 6-3-0, winning five out of the last six including a 37-31 shootout in the last meeting, also in Baltimore on December 10, 2023.

Click here to trade on Kalshi NFL markets

 Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.