Nobel Peace Prize Winner Announced on October 10

A Polymarket offering for the Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2025 has seen the Sudan Emergency Response Rooms go from not even in the prediction trading market in August to 7% chance (of winning) in September to its current 22% lead in late September (Yes 23¢, No 79¢).

The Sudan Emergency Response Rooms have fallen from a high of 28% on September 21 with second choice Yulia Navalnaya down to 7% on Monday after peaking at 25% as the market leader in July. This seems like a wide open market with chances to profit on other choices.

Other choices, Doctors Without Borders (7%), UNRWA (7%), Donald Trump (3%), Greta Thunberg (2%), Alexi Gorinov (1%), Volydymyr Zelensky (1%), António Guterres (1%), María Corina Machado (1%), Pope Leo XIV (1%), Julian Assange (1%), and Chow Hang-tung (1%) also weren’t getting much traction.

This year’s Nobel Prize winners will be announced October 8 to 13 with the Nobel Peace Prize winner unveiled on Friday, October 10 (11:00 CEST) by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo.

The Sudan Emergency Response Rooms certainly deserve this honor, and are far ahead of the competition in this trading market. Traders seeking a potential longshot “Yes” payout may look at Volydymyr Zelensky (Yes 1.1¢) or Pope Leo XIV (Yes 1¢) and hope for a nice surprise. 

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Jimmy Kimmel Live! Survives a Turbulent September

Jimmy Kimmel looks like he will survive a choppy month after the late night talk show host saw his Jimmy Kimmel Live! show suspended by ABC on Sept. 17 after Trump-appointed FCC head Brendan Carr made threats against the Disney-owned network.

But Kimmel was back on the air on Sept. 23 and Sinclair and Nexstar affiliates will also be returning Kimmel to the air. “Our government cannot be allowed to control what we do and do not say on television,” Kimmel said during his returning monologue.

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And what a ride for those trading in the Jimmy Kimmel Cancelled by...? market which saw the “Yes” on event contracts go from a 10% chance in July to a spike at 63% on Sept. 17—the day the show was pulled—back down to its current level of 7% on September 29. So, nothing happened?

Kalshi traders are weighing in on Which TV Shows Will be Cancelled This Year? and it seems all of these theoretically polarizing shows we see on our TV will all survive the year 2025.

The show given the largest chance of being cancelled is another ABC offering, The View (16%) but traders were all down on the possibility of any program getting the ax with Jimmy Kimmel Live! back to 7% and at an even lower level than it was two months ago.

NBC’s Late Night with Seth Meyers (13%, up 5% since Sunday), Comedy Central’s The Daily Show (8%) and South Park (7%), and NBC’s The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (6%) were all also seeing much more action on the “No” contracts than on the “Yes”

After a 10-year run, CBS cancelled The Late Show with Stephen Colbert this summer. The last episode is scheduled for May 2026.

 Will Taylor Swift Hold Top Ten Spots on Billboard 100?

Few in pop culture have provided so much circus around them as Taylor Swift, and the 35 year old singer-songwriter will be getting much oxygen again with the October 3, 2025 release of her new album The Life a Showgirl.

The new release, Swift’s 12th studio album, will have 12 songs and traders in Kalshi’s Taylor Swift Holds Top Ten Spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the Week of October 18th? are buying the “Yes” (81%, September 29 ), but that’s down a bit from a high of 85% on Sept. 25.

The dominance of the charts after one of her new albums drops is a trend Swift has enjoyed as the most popular musical artist on earth these strange days. She is the highest-grossing live music artist ever as well as the wealthiest female musician.

But can she see her new songs sitting 1-10 on the Billboard Hot 100™ chart for the week of Oct. 18? Of course she can. This is Taylor Swift.

Swift is the only artist in history to occupy the first 10 spots on the Billboard Hot 100, achieving the feat twice, the first time with Midnights (2022) and the second time with The Tortured Poets Department (2024), which saw her sitting in a mind-boggling top 14 spots on the popular chart.

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The Polymarket platform serves up this sit-and-lay-back market for the younger investors subscribing to the “Nothing Ever Happens” mantra seen often as a meme on social media, the Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition.

So what are the rules for “nothing” happening in this market? Before December 31, 2025, 11:59 pm EST, one or any of these following things must happen for “Yes” contracts to cash:

●       Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get married

●       Taylor Swift gets pregnant

●       Taylor Swift mentions Travis Kelce in her new album

Should any of these three things happen, the longshot ”No” contracts would win. The Yes was 79¢ with the No at 22¢ on September 29. So October, November, and December with no big news?

Looking at the Taylor Swift Pregnant in 2025? (14% chance) and Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce Get Married by...? (December 31, 6% chance) numbers and it’s hard to see either of those things happening, especially with Kelce currently in the thick of the 2025 NFL Regular Season.

That means it all probably comes down to Swift mentioning her fiancé Kelce in her upcoming album, The Life of a Showgirl which comes out this Friday, October 3.

On her last album, The Tortured Poets Department, Swift referenced Kelce several times, including in the songs “Alchemy” and “So High School.” Be careful in this market if you think that the “Yes” is a slam dunk simply because of the potential content of this new album.

Signed into law as part of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) in July, the new gambling loss deduction limit ruffled a lot of feathers from gamblers and casinos alike. Several bills were then introduced into Congress to repeal this new limit with the rule set to take effect in 2026.

Kalshi traders in the Cap on Gambling Loss Reduction Repealed This Year? market have little faith in an appeal, with the “Yes” at 16¢ (down 49¢) on September 29 with the “No” at 85¢.

In an effort to reverse this new rule, on July 7, 2025, Nevada US Rep. Dina Titus introduced the Fair Accounting for Income Realized from Betting Earnings Taxation (FAIR BET) to change the new 90% tax deduction back to 100%.

Although her efforts are noble and this will probably be repealed some day, the thought here is that this Congress is too weighed down with other big matters and the clock is ticking. Congress usually leaves for its Christmas break in mid-December.

With a potential government shutdown the immediate business at hand and so much happening on the international front, the FAIR BET proposal will likely get swept under the rug for now.

On Polymarket, the Will Trump attend UFC 320? trading market, the sentiment is on the “No” with US President Donald Trump not expected to attend UFC 320: Ankaleev vs Pereira 2 this coming Saturday, October 4 at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada (ESPN+, 10 EST/7 PST).

Trump, close friends with UFC CEO Dana White, has been known to attend many bigger UFC events, including his last one, UFC 316 in June in Newark, NJ. Trump also attended UFC 314, UFC 310, and UFC 299, among numerous other MMA fight cards.

He did not attend UFC 319 in Chicago in August rewarding ”No” backers in that market. All UFC events Trump has attended in the last three years have been in New York, Newark, Miami, or Las Vegas—all cities (or states) where he owns properties.

But traders are giving him just a 26% shot (down 30%) at making it to Sin City this weekend.

Why? Most likely health and travel concerns after the rigorous schedule the 79 year old went through this past summer. The fact Trump hasn’t been golfing as much may also be a sign that his staff would like to see the Commander in Chief slow down his recreational activities some.

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Polymarket traders are slightly backing Mookie Betts and the defending MLB World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers to repeat this fall, with the 2024 NL champs given a 17% chance (Yes 17¢, No 84¢) followed closely by the Seattle Mariners with 16% (Yes 16.0¢, No 84.3¢).

Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies were also at 16% (Yes 16.6¢, No 83.3¢) a day before the Playoffs began on September 29 with the Toronto Blue Jays trading at 11% (Yes 8.0¢, No 92.4¢) after clinching the AL East and homefield advantage for the Playoffs on Sunday.

Teams who may provide a nice payout include the Milwaukee Brewers (10%, Yes 10.0¢, No 90.2¢), the New York Yankees (10%, Yes 10¢, No 91¢), the San Diego Padres (5%, Yes 5.5¢, No 94.8¢), the Chicago Cubs (5%, Yes 5.5¢, No 94.8¢), and the Detroit Tigers (4%, Yes 4.2¢, No 96.0¢).

And even a perceived longshot like the Boston Red Sox (4%, Yes 4.1¢, No 96.2¢) as the World Series Champion 2025 market seems worth some “Yes” contracts at this price (4.1¢,) although a showdown with their rivals the Yankees in the Wild Card will derail someone’s fall dreams.

The Brewers, Padres, and Red Sox could all surprise this Postseason and should one of them win the 2025 World Series, that team’s “Yes” contract owners will look very smart in November. The 2025 MLB Postseason officially begins today with four WIld Card games.

This market reveals the reality that this year’s MLB Playoffs will be up for grabs and any team can prevail in the Fall Classic. 

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The popular cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket has numbers up for all opening Wild Card Series round games as well as series props markets for the 2025 MLB Postseason which starts on Tuesday with four games from Cleveland, Chicago, the Bronx, and Los Angeles.

Polymarket traders had the visiting Tigers (88-74) a 60¢ favorite to beat the host Guardians (87-75) in Game 1 (41¢) of their Wild Card Series at Progressive Field on Tuesday afternoon (ESPN, 1 EDT) backing Detroit ace and 2024 AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA).

The Cubs (92-70) were the traders' slight favorites (53¢) for their NL Wild Card Series Game 1 vs the Padres (90-72) at Wrigley Field (ABC, 3 EDT) with San Diego at (49¢). The two teams tied the Regular Season series, 3-3.

In one of the great rivalries in pro sports, the Yankees (94-68) welcome the Red Sox (89-73) to Yankee Stadium in the Bronx for Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series which will be must-watch TV. Traders had Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers at 55¢ with the Carmines at 46¢.

And Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers (93-69) were the traders most loved team, with defending World Series champions Los Angeles at 65¢ with the Reds (83-79) at 36¢.

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 NFC West Battle on Thursday Between 49ers and Rams

NFL Week 5 kicks off with an important NFC West showdown between the San Francisco 49ers (3-1-0) and Los Angeles Rams (3-1-0) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on Thursday, October 2 (Prime Video, 8:15 ET/5:15 PT).

Traders in the live Kalshi Football NFL market give Matt Stafford and the host Rams a 64% chance (up 10% from Sunday) of winning with the 49ers at 36% (down 10%). In Week 4 play, host SF were upset by the Jaguars while Los Angeles handed the upstart Colts their first loss of the season.

One key here will be the health of the Niners QBs with Brock Purdy and Matt Jones still both nursing injuries on a roster again loaded with them. Teams from the NFC West are a combined 11-5, the best of any division in the NFL.

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English Premier League play continues this weekend with Cole Palmer and Chelsea (2-2-2) welcoming Mo Salah and Liverpool (5-0-1) to Stamford Bridge in London on Saturday, October 4 (NBC, 12:30 EDT/9:30 PDT) in Matchweek 7.

Both clubs are coming in off disappointing results in London in Matchweek 6, with the Reds losing to 2-1 to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park with Eddie Nketiah notching the very late (90’+7’) game-winner for the Eagles while the Blues were humbled 3-1 at Stamford Bridge by Brighton.

Traders at Kalshi have Liverpool priced at a solid 44% chance of winning this match outright with Chelsea currently at 34% with a Draw at 26%.

In the last 12 EPL meetings, Liverpool is 5-5-2 (W-D-L) with the Reds 5-2-1 in the last eight in all competitions. Both teams have scored in the last three league meetings with all three games seeing three or more goals (4, 3, 5).

Kalshi traders suddenly had Liverpool at a 38% chance (down 5%) to be the EPL champions (Yes 38¢, No 65¢) with Arsenal up to 42% (Yes 43¢, No 58¢) after the Reds (15 points) were upset by Crystal Palace over the weekend with the Gunners (13 points) beating Newcastle United.

Despite a second early season loss, Chelsea was given a 52% chance (Yes 52¢, No 54¢) of being one of the EPL’s Top 4 Finishers with London rivals Tottenham only getting a 31% chance (Yes 32¢, No 78¢). Chelsea “No” contracts look pretty appetizing right about now.

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The second of five NFL international Series games comes when Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns (1-3-0) collide with the Minnesota VIkings (2-2-0) from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (TurfNation) in North London on Sunday, October 5 (NFL Network, NFL+, 9:30 EDT/6:30 PDT).

In Week 4 play, the Browns lost at Detroit while the Vikings played the Steelers in the first NFL International game of the year, losing to Pittsburgh in Dublin, on Sunday, September 28 in a game Kalshi traders only gave the Steelers a 44% chance of winning a day before.

Traders in the NFL Kalshi football NFL market give Minnesota a solid 63% chance of winning this game with Cleveland at 37%. One thing to look at here is the health of both teams starting QBs.

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The Vikings may be without the services of second-year man JJ McCarthy who is on the mend and recovering from an ankle injury giving veteran Carson Wentz a shot to show that he still has it.

These two teams only play when AFC North schedules get NFC North teams and the Vikings are 11-5 lifetime vs the Browns, winning five of the last seven meetings.

Cleveland will be playing its second international game ever, having played in London back in 2017, also against Minnesota. In that game at Twickenham Stadium, the Vikings rolled to a 33-16 win.

Robert Lewandowski and Barcelona (5-1-0) are at Sevilla (2-1-3) and Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán in Sevilla on Sunday (ESPN+, 10:15 EDT/7:15 PDT) for this Spanish La Liga match important to the home club who had just 7 points after six games.

The Catalans have beaten Sevilla seven straight times, outscoring them 19-3 and Barcelona is unbeaten the last 10 (9-1-0), registering six clean sheets along the way.

Polymarket has Raphinha and Barça (42-12-8 vs Sevilla) trading at a 67% chance to beat Sevilla (18%) outright and stay unbeaten with a Draw at 18%. This one seems like a no-brainer.

Last year in this match, the Catalans easily won, 4-1 as Lewandowski, Fermín López, Raphinha, and Eric García all scored for the visitors who played with just 10 men for over 30 minutes after López was red carded at 62’. Barça outscored Sevilla 9-2 last year with Lewandowski scoring three times.

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Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.