Having snow on the ground on Christmas Day is rarer than we think, and while it looks like most of the lower 48 states won’t have at least 1 inch of snowfall on the ground, there is still a possibility the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest regions could all have snow on December 25.
And at Polymarket, you can trade on whether or not some select cities in the United States will have “at least 0.5 inches” of the white stuff on Christmas Day, December 2025, with National Weather Service records determining the final ‘Yes-No’ outcomes.
Chicago (24%), Philadelphia (19%), New York (18%), Boston (16%), Detroit (15%), Washington, DC (14%), Seattle (11%), St Louis (6%), and Dallas (1%) were given the best chance to have a half-inch Christmas Day in trading order on December 18 with Miami (<1%) the least likely.
Trading Thoughts: Winter arrives on Sunday and while you deck the halls with boughs of holly, remember two things about this market. The first, is that it isn’t very liquid (no pun intended)—with volume only at $8,132 just a week before Christmas.
The second thing is the rules clearly state the measured 0.5 inches of snow must actually fall on Christmas Day (December 25), and not already be on the ground like it already is in some US cities last week after a major snowstorm hammered the country. Trading Pick: Philadelphia No 86¢
Will FanDuel Launch Prediction Markets by the End of 2025?
Online sportsbook FanDuel announced last month that it would be joining forces with CME Group to launch new prediction markets in December with a product called FanDuel Predicts.
While the new product has yet to launch, traders at Polymarket were giving chances of a launch this month at a confident 83% (Yes 84¢, No 19¢) as of trading on December 13. The product will also offer sports outcomes in states that do not have legalized online betting.
“We can’t wait to bring FanDuel's proven approach to product innovation into this dynamic sector,” said FanDuel CEO Amy Howe in a press release. “Our partnership with CME Group allows us to leverage their deep market expertise built over decades while delivering the seamless, accessible and trusted experience our customers expect."
Whether or not the app and product come out in the next two weeks remains to be seen, but this market (‘Yes’) went from 17% on October 11 to a high of 89% on December 12 before seeing some ‘No’ buyback as the calendar on the wall was ticking the days off.
Hopes of a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025 Now Dead
We analyze some good trades in markets here, but it’s also important to shine a light on the bad ones and suggest how they ended up breaking bad in the end. One of those is the (Will There be a) US National Bitcoin reserve in 2025? where ‘Yes’ money goes to die a slow internet death.
This market peaked at a high (‘Yes’) of 75.5% in March after President Trump signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the United States as well as a Digital Asset Stockpile with cryptocurrencies like Ether by using tokens already owned by the government.
Over $5 million in volume in this one at Polymarket and the outcome looks like a lump of coal in the stockings of “Yes” traders in this market this Christmas. "And the one speck of food that he'd left in the house, was a crumb that was even too small for a mouse."
Will There be Another Critical Cloudflare Incident by Dec. 31?
Internet service company Cloudflare experienced two significant outages in the last month, the first coming on November 18 when large parts of the world wide web like Twitter (X), ChatGPT, and Spotify when a bug was found in its bot mitigation service after a configuration change.
The San Francisco-based company had a second problem again on December 5, going out after its firewall reacted to a security vulnerability in the React Server Components, showing a major strain in its infrastructure.
And some irony lies in the fact that Cloudflare runs the website—Down Detector—that tells users if a specific website is down or not. Am I down? I cannot tell you if you are down as I am down too. What did we all do before the Internet? Remember the trees, the grass and the smell of fresh air?
Trading Thoughts: Polymarket traders are giving Cloudflare just an 8% chance of suffering another outage, with traders in this Tech category market optimistic they have done what they can to try to stop further outages and that the calendar keeps ticking to 2026 one day at a time.
Rules: “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 pm EST. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’.” The primary resolution source will be Cloudflare, unless of course they are down on New Year’s Eve.
Who Will be the Next Prime Minister of Hungary?
The Central European country Hungary will be holding parliamentary elections in April 2026, and although current Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have been in charge since 2010, prediction markets and polls are pointing to a new PM and party in power next year.
Orbán and the Fidesz-KDNP party still have a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian parliament, but challenger Péter Magyar and the new Tisza party are currently ahead in both the conventional public polls as well as in the Election prediction markets at Polymarket and Kalshi.
But at Kalshi on December 18, Magyar (54%) was slightly ahead of the incumbent Orbán (50%), while at Polymarket, the spread was much higher (+9%) among traders with Magyar (55%) having some distance between himself and Orbán (46%).
The Hungarian election is still five months away, and these markets had surprisingly brisk volume at Polymarket ($3,027,854) on December 18 but only a spattering at Kalshi ($8,152).
Following Magyar and Orbán at Polymarket are Third Way politician and Member of the European Parliament and leader of the Democratic Coalition Klára Dobrev (<1%) and politician, journalist, and leader of the far-right Our Homeland Movement political party László Toroczkai (<1%).
Trading Thoughts: Forty-four-year-old Magyar and the new Tisza party have all the momentum as the member of the European Parliament—along with six others in Hungary—but there is so much time left and you know the 62-year-old Orbán will do everything he can to hold on to power.
Still, it seems like the people want change as we have seen in so many other countries who have re-elected new leaders like Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Japan—who just elected its first woman PM—France, Germany, Romania, and the Netherlands. Trading Pick: Magyar Yes 55¢
Dortmund Hosts Gladbach in Bundesliga Play on Friday
The 2025-26 German Bundesliga season continues with Borussia Dortmund (8-4-1) welcoming Borussia Mönchengladbach (4-4-6) to Westfalenstadion (Signal Aduna Park) in Dortmund, North Rhine-Wetphalia on Friday (ESPN+, 2:30 EST/1:30 CST/12:30 PST).
Fußball-Bundesliga traders at Kalshi are backing third-place Borussia Dortmund (67%) over Borussia Mönchengladbach (16%) with a Draw (Tie) getting more love (18%) than the visitors. Dortmund wins by more than 1.5 goals was trading at 43% with the Over 3.5 goals scored at 37%.
Trading Thoughts: Die Schwarzgelben are 4-1-0 (W-D-L) in the last 5 meetings (15 GF-8 GA) with Felix Nmecha and hosts BVB scoring three goals in nine minutes in a come-from-behind 3-2 win at home last season. Back in 1978 before Bitcoin, Gladbach embarrassed Dortmund, 12-0.
Haris Tabaković (7 goals) and Gladbach went unbeaten in November (3-1-0) but have started December off 1-0-2, scoring just once in their first three games of the month, but only once off the foot of one of its own players (Tabaković). Trading Pick: Borussia Dortmund -1.5 goals 43¢
Anthony Joshua a Big Favorite vs Jake Paul on Friday Night
Judgement Day comes on Friday night when You Tube-sensation-turned-boxer Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua get in the ring at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for a scheduled 8-round (3 minutes each) bout with 10 ounce gloves (NETFLIX, 8 EST/5 PST/1 am GMT Saturday).
The purse for this fight is reported to be $184 million and the fight is the main card of the event which will see the preliminary fights starting at 4:45 EST/1:45 PST. Like the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul “match” on Netflix a year ago in Arlington, Texas, it’s hard to tell if this will be scripted.
Traders at Polymarket are all over the former two-time unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua (87%) over Jake Paul (13%) who heads into this extravaganza in the Sunshine State on a 6-fight winning streak after defeating Julio César Chávez Jr. by a Unanimous Decision in July.
JAKE PAUL-ANTHONY JOSHUA TALE OF THE TAPE
Boxer | Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua |
Age | 28 | 36 |
Hometown | Cleveland, Ohio | Watford, England |
Pre-fight Record | 12-1 (7 KOs) | 28-4 (25 KOs) |
Height | 6-1 | 6-6 |
Weight | 225-230 (Expected) | 245 (Agreed Weight Limit) |
Style | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Recognition | WBA | IBF/WBO |
Highest Ranking | #15 Cruiserweight | #1 Heavyweight (The Ring) |
Nickname | The Rooster | AJ |
Listening to Las Vegas sports gambling radio, I heard a respected bookmaker at one of the major casinos say he took a very large bet on Joshua and that the majority of the perceived “smart money” was on the big Englishman who lost his last fight more than a year ago to Daniel Dubois.
It is hard to think that Paul will have a chance to KO or win by a decision against Joshua, who is 5 inches taller and a good 20 pounds heavier than the American who has a 76-inch reach (Joshua’s is 82 inches). Still, who wants to be associated with or risk trading on the circus? Trading Pick: None
Commanders Host Eagles in NFC East Play on Saturday
NFL Week 16 continues with an NFC East showdown between the Commanders (3-11, 2-4 Home) and the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (10-4, 4-3 Road) from Northwest Stadium (Bermuda Grass) in Landover, Maryland on Saturday afternoon (FOX, 5 EST/4CST/2 PST).
In Week 15 games, Washington was at the Giants, where someone had to win and it was the Commanders while Philadelphia hosted the slumping Raiders and easily rolled to a 31-0 victory in the City of Brotherly Love and Mean-Spirited Snowballs Thrown at Santa Claus.
NFL traders at Kalshi like Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and the Eagles here (73%) over the host Commanders (27%) with Philadelphia wins by over 6.5 points at 51% and the Over 45.5 points scored trading at 45%.
Trading Thoughts: These two meet again in a Week 18 Flex game in Philly. The Commanders are 90-87-6 lifetime vs the Eagles but the champions rolled last meeting, humiliating Washington, 55-23 in the 2024 NFL Playoffs, scoring the most points ever in a conference championship game.
The Commanders lost starting QB Jayden Daniels to an injury, so the winning season in 2024-25 may just look like a blip on the radar in the future. Philadelphia needs this game and after playing the Raiders, should be ready for another blowout. Trading Pick: Eagles -6.5 Yes 51¢
Bears Hosting Packers in NFC North Rivalry Saturday
This is the best the Packers (9-4-1, 4-1-1 Road) and the Bears (10-4-0, 4-1-0 Home) have been in awhile and when they meet at Soldier Field (Bermuda Grass) in Chicago in NFL Week 16 on Saturday night (FOX, 8:20 EST/5:20 PST), the winner will have a big leg up in the NFC North race.
In Week 15 action, QB Jordan Love and Green Bay were in Denver to face the Broncos who won their 11th straight while Chicago welcomed Cleveland to the frigid Windy City where Caleb Williams and the Bears beat the Browns as the hosts regained the lead in the division.
For this historic rivalry, traders at Kalshi are torn with the beat-up Packers (50%) and Bears (50%) deemed a coin flip by the predictive masses with Chicago wins by over 2.5 points at 47% and Over 46.5 points scored at 52% (Yes 52¢, No 51¢).
Trading Thoughts: When these two met in Week 14, the Cheeseheads prevailed in America’s Dairyland, winning 28-21 as Love threw for 234 yards and Josh Jacobs rushed for 86. Lifetime, Green Bay is now 108-96-0 with the Pack going a dominating 10-1 vs Da Bears this decade.
In Chicago, the Packers have surprisingly won 13 of the last 14 and Green Bay is a profitable 27-5-0 in the last 27 series meeting against the Bears. That is domination and no matter how much Chicago has improved or the site, I like cheese. Trading Pick: Chicago Wins by 2.5 points No 55¢
Panthers Look to Keep Magic Going vs Bucs on Sunday
One of many surprises this year has been the Panthers (7-7, 4-2 Home), and on Sunday, Carolina will play their most important game of the season when they welcome the Bucs (7-7, 4-3 Road) to Bank of America Stadium (FieldTurf Vertex CORE) in Charlotte, NC (FOX, 1 EST/12 CST/10 PST).
In Week 15 games, the Panthers were in The Big Easy to face the Saints in NFC South action and lost, 20-17 while Baker Mayfield while the Buccaneers lost a heartbreaker, falling to the Falcons, 29-28 on Thursday Night Football in a result put the upstart Black Cats in first place by a whisker.
Kalshi NFL traders are behind the visiting Buccaneers (60%) over QB Bryce Young and the Panthers (40%) with Tampa Bay wins by over 3.5 points at 48% and Over 45.5 points scored at 50% (Yes 50¢, No 52¢).
Trading Thoughts: This game probably won’t determine the NFC South winner—these two meet again in Week 18 in TB in a Flex game—and the Buccaneers can tie the all-time series here with a win (25-25-0). All four teams in the NFC South have negative Point Differentials.
With the Bucs winning the last 5 meetings, 9 of their last 10, and 5 of the last 6 in Charlotte, taking the visitors in the Game Winner market seems to be the logical approach no matter how much a Cinderella season Carolina has had to date. Trading Pick: Buccaneers Game Winner Yes 61¢
Patriots in Baltimore For AFC Showdown on Sunday
NFL MVP candidate Drake Maye and the Patriots (11-3, 6-0 Road) host Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (7-7, 3-5 Home) at M&T Bank Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Baltimore, Maryland on Sunday Night Football (NBC, Peacock, 8:20 EST/7:20 CST/5:20 PST).
In NFL Week 15 action, NE faced Buffalo in a big AFC East showdown which saw the Pats 10-game winning streak finally come to an end while Lamar Jacskson, Derrick Henry, and Baltimore were at Cincinnati in AFC North play and shut out the toothless Bengals, 24-0.
NFL traders at Kalshi are behind the host Ravens (58%) over the Patriots (42%) with Baltimore wins by over 2.5 points at 54% and over 47.5 points scored is 54% (Yes 55¢, No 46¢).
Trading Thoughts: Before the season started, one would expect the Ravens win total to be in double-digits in Week 16 with the Patriots looking to finish above the .500 mark but this is the year of the strange in the NFL with heavies like the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals all scuffling.
Lifetime, NE is 11-5-0 vs Baltimore with the Pats 4-2 the last 6 although 5 of those games were played in Foxboro. This game will see Baltimore fighting for a Wild Card spot and NE fighting for AFC Homefield. The Ravens are too hard to trust. Trading Pick: Baltimore wins by 2.5, No 46¢
Struggling Colts Hosting 49ers on Monday Night Football
The Colts (8-6, 6-1 at Home) welcome Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers (10-4, 6-2 Road) to Lucas Oil Stadium (Hellas MatrixTurf) in Indianapolis, Indiana for this interconference meeting and an important Week 16 game for both on Monday night (ESPN, ABC, 8:15 EST/7:15 CST/5:15 PST).
In NFL Week 15 play on Sunday, Old Man Rivers and lIndianapolis fell at Seattle for its 4th straight loss as the Colts postseason hopes took another blow while SF hosted the worst team in the league, Tennessee (2-12), and rolled to an easy 37-24 win in The City By The Bay (Whoa, oh oh).
Pro Football traders at Kalshi like San Francisco (70%) to win here over Indianapolis (30%) with San Francisco wins by over 6.5 points trading at 48% and Over 45.5 points scored trading at 54% (Yes 54¢, No 48¢).
Trading Thoughts: Colts signal-caller Daniel Jones suffered an Achilles injury, so Indianapolis has been struggling since then and that explains why the Niners are the favorites here in Naptown with Notre Dame product Riley Leonard now taking the snaps for Indianapolis.
The Colts are 27-19-0 vs the 49ers with Indianapolis winning the last 5 straight after SF went 6-1 the previous 7. This is a tough call with the Colts good at Home and needing the win and the 49ers fighting the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West. Trading Pick: Under 45.5 Yes 54¢