The Presidential Election Winner 2028 market at Polymarket has been solidly predicting the current Vice President JD Vance to be the next US president, with 29% “Yes” contracts behind Vance as we sit 1,068 days from the next US Presidential election on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
Following Vance in the popular market which already has $120 million of volume in it is California Governor Gavin Newsom (19%), US House of Representatives member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (9%), and current US President Donald Trump (5%).
This tells us a number of things including the fact that some think that Trump won’t leave the White House despite having already served two terms and that little thing called the Constitution.
Presidential Election Winner 2028?
Also in the theoretical running are Marco Rubio (4%), Kamala Harris (3%), Pete Buttigieg (3%), Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (3%), Tucker Carlson (2%), Josh Shapiro (2%), Wes Moore (2%), Andy Beshear (2%), Ivanka Trump (1%), and brother Donald Trump Jr. (1%).
Also getting 1% chance from Polymarket traders are Vivek Ramaswamy, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, Ron DeSantis, Elon Musk, LeBron James, Glenn Youngkin, Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, Stephen A. Smith, and Kim Kardashian.
The White House
>The skinny: There are so many things to weigh if considering trading in this market. The first being how long (over a thousand days) until a possible resolution. What could go wrong in 1,000 days, Bubba? What could go wrong in even 100 days? As our last president Joe Biden about that.
Besides there being no sure way to assume Trump will leave the fully refurbished premises at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC in two years. Vance would face much intense competition from within the Republican party but it’s really hard to see Le Grand Orange giving his blessing to anyone as long as he is sitting on the throne with the Diet Coke button nearby.
The Democrats will also have their own handful of worthy candidates the party will feel it can get behind including Newson, AOC, Buttigieg, and Moore but the bottom line is that the majority of US states are Red so the Blue team will have its work cut out for them with spirits down now.
The best advice here is to stay away and see what happens 2026-2027 before tying up any of your portfolio on something that won’t happen in the immediate future. Long-term Vance or Newsom contracts may seem wise now but the number of variables and length of time makes it too difficult.
PrizePicks Integrates Kalshi Mention Markets
Users of PrizePicks will now be able to make predictions and buy event contracts on outcomes across sports, entertainment, politics, news, awards, and pop culture in Kalshi’s library of offerings as the two inked a deal last week. All event contracts on PrizePicks are now Kalshi markets.
PrizePicks also announced the launch of its prediction markets exchange through its subsidiary, the federally-approved Futures Commission Merchant, Performance Predictions II, LLC.
“Expanding into prediction markets delivers on what customers want, innovative products with more ways to play,” PrizePicks CEO Mike Ybarra said. “Together with Kalshi, we will welcome new customers across many states to the PrizePicks experience, and we couldn’t be more excited about the opportunity ahead in this fast-growing space.”
PrizePicks will offer trading on affiliated Designated Contract Markets, and at launch, will serve up Team Picks and/or Culture Picks in 38 US states and Washington, DC. The future is now.
TKO, Polymarket Ink a Multiyear Partnership
On November 13, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s (UFC) parent company, TKO, unveiled a multi-year deal with Polymarket as the prediction market giant prepares to relaunch in the US in the coming months.
The UFC will integrate the odds from Polymarket’s fluid prediction market and the collective wisdom of the Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) trader into the live broadcast, showing market activity during the bouts in a “fan prediction scoreboard.”
UFC head Dana White has an event planned for June 14, 2026 called UFC White House which is scheduled to be held on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC and Kalshi has an event outcome market on which fighters will be on that card as well as some others.
Miss Universe 2025 Pageant Crowns a New Queen on Friday
The Miss Universe 2025 pageant will be held this Friday from the IMPACT Challenger Hall in Pak Kret, Nonthaburi, Thailand. Last year, Victoria Kjær Theilvig of Denmark won Miss Universe 2025 and she will crown her successor.
Last Wednesday it was reported that Kincső Dezsényi of Hungary and seven others were rushed to the hospital. In the Miss Universe 2025 Winner? market at Kalshi, traders are backing women from all over the globe, with Ahitisa Manalo from the Philippines the co-favorite (17%).
Even with here for now is Praveenar Singh from Thailand (17%), followed by Fátima Bosch of Mexico (14%), Olivia Yacé of Ivory Coast (12%), Stephany Abasali of Venezuela (11%, +5%), Vanessa Pulgaris of Colombia (6%), and Manika Vishwakarama of India (5%).
Another market for this event is the Who Will Finish Top 3 in the Miss Universe Pageant? Which sees Manalo (60%), Bosch (50%, below), and Singh (36%) are the top three and this market seems like a better value with more opportunities, much like betting a horse to “Place” in a race and settling for a lower potential payout should the trade-horse finish in the top three in the event.
Top 3 Miss Universe
>Where and when to watch the 2026 Miss Universe Pageant: You can catch the event this Friday, November 21 (Telemundo, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST) and it will also stream live on Peacock.
The way I’d approach this is through the Who Will Finish Top 3 in the Miss Universe Pageant? offering and buying “Yes” on all three favorites, Manalo (67¢), Bosch (50¢), and Singh (36¢).
Three hundred contracts (100 each) on Manalo ($67), Bosch ($50), and Singh ($36) would need a $153 investment, and should all three finish 1-2-3, the “Yes” resolutions would return $300 and bragging rights until Aunt Carole cooks an Orange Rosemary Rosemary Turkey for Thanksgiving.
Two Bond Plays in Mentions on Survivor on Wednesday?
On Wednesday, we get a new Episode 9 of Survivor 49 (CBS, 8 EST/8 PST) where prediction markets traders at Kalshi will be dabbling in the Mentions Market of the long-running Reality TV hit and hoping host Jeff Probst says (or doesn’t say) the words/phrases they have traded on.
➢ Reward 97%
➢ Alliance 95%
➢ Strength/Strong 91%
➢ Puzzle 85%
➢ Immunity Idol 77%
➢ Blindside/Blind Side 74%
➢ Fire 72%
➢ Hungry/Hunger 63%
➢ Flint 13%
➢ Comeback/Come Back 6%
>Mentions Market advice from Twitter: The prince of soho (@dimo42525) offered up two bond plays in the What Will Jeff Probst Say During the Survivor Episode 9? market suggesting that “Puzzle” (Yes 65¢) and “Fire” (Yes 61¢) will be said by the host in the 90-minute episode.
As a huge Survivor fan, I can also suggest “Immunity Idol” (Yes 75¢) as another bonding opportunity as Probst says in almost every episode, as he has for years. Probst just released a new book about Survivor a month ago titled “Forged by Fire.”
Walmart Mentions on Earnings Call on November 20
Retail giant Walmart (WMT) will be holding an 3Q earnings call before the NASDAQ opening bell on Thursday, November 20 and prediction market Polymarket is offering the What Will Walmart Say During Their Next Earnings Call? mentions market for prospective traders.
Where and when to access the Walmart webcast: The live conference call starts at 8 am ET (7 CT/5 PT) with the results and all related material about the company’s third-quarter earnings and fiscal results available an hour earlier. You can see it at the Walmart Corporate Events website.
Walmart
#3 Texas A&M Rallies on Saturday to Please Aggies Traders
In NCAAF Week 12, No. 3-ranked Texas A&M looked doomed at home on Saturday against South Carolina, trailing 30-3 as the two teams went into the locker room. At that point in time, traders at Kalshi gave the Aggies just an 11% chance of coming back and winning the tilt at College Station.
And they did.
Overcoming a 27-point deficit, Texas A&M (10-0, 7-0 SEC) scored four TDs to edge the Gamecocks, 31-30 and keep its chances of a CFP berth and First Round bye very alive. With 30 minutes to go, ESPN gave South Carolina (3-7, 0-5 SEC) a 96.5% chance of pulling off the upset.
Traders who took a chance on Texas A&M at halftime or early in the third quarter were rewarded greatly when QB Marcel Reed (439 yards, 3 TD) led the Aggies to three third-quarter TDs, setting up the opportunity for the biggest comeback in school history.
When EJ Smith—the son of the Cowboys legend—took it in from four yards out to tie it at 30-30 and Randy Bond made the XP to give A&M a 31-30 lead, it was bedlam at Kyle Field and a little bit of college football history was made as the hosts kept the dream alive of a national championship.
Texans Welcome the Bills for Thursday Night Football
There’s a nice AFC game to start NFL Week 12 with Josh Allen and the Bills (7-3-0, 2-2 Road) heading to NRG Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in Houston to face the Texans (5-5-0, 3-2 Home) in game more important to the hosts on Thursday Night Football (Prime Video, 8:15 EST/5:15 PST).
In Week 11 action, James Cook III and Buffalo hosted Tampa Bay and the Bills led after the end of each quarter en route to a 44-32 victory while Houston was at the lowly Titans where they eked out a 19-17 win at Opryland in a game which Tennessee led 3-0 at halftime on Sunday.
TNF
Traders at Kalshi like the Bills (64%) to defeat CJ Stroud, Nick Chubb, and the Texans (36%) in this one which has AFC Playoff implications. The Point Spread sees Buffalo -3.5 with the Total (Over/Under is trading at 44.5 (Yes 48¢, No 56¢) early on Monday morning.
What you need to know: In the last 11 series meetings, the Bills are 5-6-0 vs the Texas, losing 4 of the last 5 times including the last 4 at NRG Stadium. Buffalo’s last win at Houston was in 2006 two years before cryptocurrency Bitcoin was born and when Josh Allen was just 10 years old.
MLS Conference Semifinals Contended This Weekend
The 2025 MLS Regular Season is over and the MLS Playoffs have left us with a final four as we look toward the Eastern Conference and Western Conference semifinals which start on Saturday with one match followed by a pair of Eastern Conference Semis on Sunday, one with that Messi lad.
On Saturday, W3 LAFC (32¢) faces W2 Vancouver (46¢), Draw (28¢) at BC Place (FieldTurf) in Vancouver, BC, Canada (AppleTV+, 9:30 EST/6:30 PST) in the single-match Semi. The winner will play the WC 1 SDFC- WC 4 Minnesota United FC winner in the Western Conference Finals.
On Sunday, E2 FC Cincinnati (35¢) hosts Lionel Messi and E3 Inter Miami CF (44¢), Draw (26¢) at TOL Stadium in Cincinnati, OH (AppleTV+, 5 ET/2 PT) followed by E1 Philadelphia Union (53¢) hosting E5 NYFC (26¢), Draw (28¢) at Subaru Park in Chester, PA (AppleTV+, 7:30 ET/4:30 PT).
2025 CUP PLAYOFFS
In the MLS Cup Winner 2025 at Polymarket, Inter Miami CF (24%) are the traders’ favorites followed by the Philadelphia Union (21%), LAFC (18%), and the Vancouver Whitecaps (16%). The LA Galaxy are defending MLS champs, having defeated the NY Red Bulls in the 2024 MLS Cup.
MLS Cup Winner 2025
The skinny: It’s too early to offer up a new MLS champion, but I like two Road clubs in these first three matches in the MLS Playoffs. Why? Because Inter Miami CF and LAFC have the strongest attacks and will come in with expectations of advancing to their respective conference finals.
With magician Messi (29 goals) and Luis Suárez (10 goals), Inter Miami CF possess the veteran European savvy needed to advance on in tournaments and at 44¢, backing the visitors vs FC Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon seems like the best trading approach.
With Denis Bouanga (24 goals) and Son Heung-Min (9 goals), LAFC own the best attacking duo in the Western Conference and in the MLS Regular Season, LAFC went 0-1-1, losing 1-0 at Home in Lalaland and tying the Whitecaps 2-2 in Ogopogoville. Lean to the Road underdogs LAFC (32¢).
The Eastern Conference and Western Conference finals will be held on November 29 and November 30 with MLS Cup 2025 scheduled to play on December 6 (5:30 EST/2:30 PST) where a new champion will be crowned at the stadium of the highest-ranking Supporters’ Shield finalist.
Familiar Foes Oregon and USC Dance on Saturday
Once a great Pac-12 conference rivalry, Southern Cal and Oregon now call the Big Ten Conference home and both have fared very well on the hardwood and the gridiron since making the move. On Saturday, the No. 17 Trojans and No. 8 Ducks will renew the rivalry at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.
USC (7-2. 5-1 Big Ten) was ranked No. 17 in the last CFP rankings were released with Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) checking in at No. 8 and looking at a legitimate shot to make the 12-team CFP field and have a chance at winning the Ducks first-ever national championship. Don’t say “natty,” man.
Polymarket NCAAF traders like the host Ducks here (75%) with the Trojans (25%) getting some love on the prediction marketplace, but just about what one would expect. This is a massive game for both. A loss by USC and all dress are dust and a loss for Oregon would jeopardize a CFP berth.
>Some info for those who may want to trade on this game: Oregon has only lost one game at Autzen (FieldTurf) since joining the Big Ten and that was this season when No. 2 Indiana came into the house in Bigfootville and stole all of the Ducks’ Oreos and clove cigarettes last month.
In their last 19 games at Home, Oregon is 18-1 with that loss to the Hoosiers snapping the nation’s longest FBS win streak. Looking at the last 10 series meetings, we see that the Ducks are 7-3 winning the last three straight (56-24, 31-24, 36-27), twice in Los Angeles at the Rose Bowl.
Luckily for USC, this game isn’t being played in the Eastern or Central time zones where the Trojans are an embarrassing 0-13 in their last 13. USC’s last win at Oregon was 14 years ago in 2011 and the Trojans are 1-4 in their last 5 trips to Autzen in both the Pac-12 and the Big Ten.
Lifetime, USC is 38-23-2 vs Oregon, but the site and Trojans Home-Road schizophrenia, Ducks need to stay in the CFP race, and the fact that QB Dante Moore rank No. 13 in Total Offense (471.6 YPG) and tied for No. 9 in Scoring Offense (38.7 PPG), makes this prediction an easy One.
Internazionale, AC Milan Meet in Italian Serie A on Sunday
There is a big match in the Italian Serie A this weekend with first-place Internazionale (8-0-3) welcoming third-place AC Milan (6-4-1) to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Grassmaster) in Milano Italy on Sunday (Paramount+, 2:45 EST/11:45 PST).
Soccer traders at Kalshi are behind Inter (52%) at home at San Siro over American star Christian Pulisic (4 goals) and AC Milan (24%) with a Draw currently trading at 27%. In sportsbooks, AC Milan is priced at -115 with the Total (goals) at 2.5.
SERIE A
In the last 11 Milan Derby series meetings between these two storied clubs—called the Derby della Madonnina—Inter is 6-3-2 (19 GF-12 GA), but it won six straight before going winless in the last five (0-2-3). In 239 lifetime matches, Inter is 91-82-71, meaning 33.1% ended in a tie.
So not only is the series very close, both of these clubs call San Siro home, so neither has any real advantage although Inter (I Nerazzurri ) is the designated home side for this first meeting of the 2025-26 Italian Serie A season.
Inter has the firepower edge with Hakan Çalhanoglu (5 goals), Lautaro Martínez (4 goals), Ange-Yoan Bonny (4 goals) and Inter will want to protect its new spot on top of the table. But AC Milan play good defense and this derby seems like a 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 final. I would buy Draw here.
Chiefs Hosting Colts in Important Sunday Scuffle
Jonathan Taylor and the much-improved Colts (8-2-0) head to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Northbridge Bermudagrass) in Kansas City, Missouri to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-5-0) in an exciting NFL Week 12 AFC showdown on Sunday afternoon (CBS, 1 EST/10 PST).
In Week 11, Indianapolis enjoyed its bye week after holding off the Falcons in Week 10 while the defending AFC champion Chiefs (4-1 at Home) lost late to the Broncos (9-2) in Denver on Sunday to give Bo Nix and the Broncos a nice lead in the AFC and make KC wonder if it is now too old.
NFL prediction market traders at Kalshi are supporting both sides with the host Chiefs being given a 62% chance to win over Daniel Jones and the Colts (38%) in a game that is definitely much more important to the home team at this point in the season.
COLTS
CHIEFS
>Alpha for NFL traders: The Colts are 14-9-0 vs the Chiefs lifetime and just 1-4 in the last 5 meetings which is surprising with how good KC has been the last decade and how much Indianapolis has struggled. Six of the Colts first 10 games were at home, on the road they are 2-2.
Chiefs QB Mahomes has always been very hard to beat at home, going 62-14 lifetime in all games at Arrowhead Stadium (58-12 Regular Season) and going 13-6 lifetime vs teams from the AFC South with Mahomes boasting a sparkling 10-2 record vs the AFC South at Kansas City.
The need for KC to win this game is huge and the friendly confines in the Show Me State should provide the necessary energy and breaks.