Polymarket Traders See Just One Leader Out in 2025
At Polymarket in the First Leader Out of Power in 2025? market traders only have one world leader currently given more than a 3% chance of being out of power by December 31, 2025 in Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at a 94% chance (Yes 94.2c, No 5.9c) to go.
That seems like a pretty good “Yes” trade with the Japanese PM announcing on Sept. 7, 2025 that he was stepping down after receiving heavy pressure from his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The next closest leader in that market is Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro (2%).
Trading in the individual Leaders Out markets at Polymarket (by December 31, 2025) indicated that the popular opinion is that Japan’s Ishiba will be the only leader leaving before 2026. Here is where other world leaders stood in their individual markets on Saturday, October 11:
● Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro out 19% (High 33%)
● Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei out 14% (High 62%)
● Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out 7%
● France President Emmanuel Macron out 9%
● United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer out 8%
● China President Xi Jinping 7% (High 14%)
● South Korean President Lee Jae Myun out 3%
Although it seems Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israel PM Netanyahu will survive 2025, traders weren’t so sure about them making it through the next year.
PM Netanyahu
In the Zelenskyy Out as Ukraine President by the End of 2026? offering, 31% were saying “Yes.” but that was drastically down from a high of 59% at Polymarket on Aug. 18.
The world leader traders don’t see surviving to 2027 is Israel PM Netanyahu, who had 62% of the “Yes” contracts in the Netanyahu Out By the End of 2026? exchange, down from a high of 70% on July 25 but still concerning for the Likud party head.
Where Will Bitcoin Close on October 31?
Holders of Bitcoin (BTC) had a nightmare day on Friday, when the popular cryptocurrency experienced its largest liquidation event ever, going from $125,559.21 on Oct. 5 all the way down to $104,582.41 at one point in an unprecedented free fall.
Bad news seemed to be all over the place on Friday, with the government shutdown entering its 10th day and President Trump sending markets into a bearish frenzy after announcing on social media an additional 100% tariff on China, vaporizing $2 trillion from the stock market.
Trump’s announcement came after China announced restrictions on exports or rare earth minerals, critical to high-tech companies. The NYSE’s DJIA was down 878.82 points (-1.90%) to 45,479.60 while the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite shed 820.20 points (-3.56%).to 22,204.43.
Bitcoin
Where it looked like Bitcoin would surely end October above $120,000, possibly $130,000, and maybe even $140,000 or $150,000, the selloff on Friday opened up the possibility it could now end up anywhere in a $100,000 (or less) to $150,000 in 2025 and who knows where in October.
Traders at Limitless in the Bitcoin Price on October 31? were all over the map with the eventual Yes-No outcomes with $110-120k at 29.6% on October 11 (Yes 32c, No 72.7c), $100-$110k at 25.4%, $120-130k at 17.1%, Over $120k at 11.4%, and Under $100k at 6.6%.
The prediction market market exchange reflects just how much Friday changed everything for so many traders and investors. But it is important to note that despite the eruption and lava, Bitcoin was pretty much back at the level ($112k) it was at just 12 days earlier.
But the future remains murky after what happened on Friday and the average Bitcoin mining cost on Oct. 10 was $115,098 while the cryptocurrency was trading at $114,440.50 early Monday.
Traders Pessimistic of 100% Tariff Rate for China
President Trump was quick to threaten 100% tariffs on China after the rare minerals announcement, but we have seen these threats of excessively high tariffs on US trading partners only to see Trump step back after cooling off and talking to his advisors.
And Polymarket traders in the US Tariff Rate on China on November 12, 2025? market are also skeptical, with 25-40% the top choice at 65% (Yes 65c, No 36c), followed by 100-150% at 11%, 40-60% at 7%, 60-100% at 6%, <25% at 6%, and 150%> at 3%.
Tariff Rate for China
On Sunday, China said it wouldn’t back down in the face of a 100% tariff threat, but would prefer the US try to resolve the impasse through negotiations and not threats.
In a statement posted online, the Commerce Ministry said "China's stance is consistent. "We do not want a tariff war but we are not afraid of one."
Trump will be in Seoul, South Korea for the 2025 APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 and he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning to meet there to talk tariffs, but Trump was so insulted by the rare earth minerals thing he canceled the meeting. Stay tuned.
Traders also think that Trump is bluffing saying he won’t meet with Xi, as 71% think “Yes” in the Will Trump Meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? offering at Polymarket.
Bank of America Earnings Coming on Wednesday
The Weekly Earnings Calendar sees many big companies reporting their Quarterly Earnings this week including Citicorp, Wells Fargo, (Tuesday) and Bank of America (Wednesday), and traders at Polymarket are pretty bullish on them all beating expectations.
In the Will Bank of America (BAC) Beat Quarterly Earnings? Market, the “Yes” was at 92% on October 13 (Yes 92c, No 9c), with traders bullish the bank and financial services holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina would beat expected third quarter earnings.
Bank of America
Bank of America will report these results around 6:45 am EDT on Wednesday morning and will be followed by an investor conference call at 8:30 am EDT.
Most Traders Missed on Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Traders in the now determined Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2025 market at Polymarket (and Kalshi as well) were way off for months, with the Sudan Emergency Response Rooms, Yulia Navalnaya, Doctors Without Borders, and UNRWA the top four when we talked about this two weeks ago.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner
You can see in the chart above from late September, that the eventual winner in this tricky market, María Corina Machado, wasn’t even in the picture and had just 1% of the “Yes” contracts, which proved to be the perfect buying opportunity for the Venezuelan politician and activist.
In the end, Alexei Navalny's wife Yulia Navalnaya, Pope Leo XIV, Volydymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, Greta Thunberg, and everyone else considered in this market never got much attention from traders or the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo who made the announcement Oct. 10.
This goes to show that all prediction markets are very unique, and that an eventual winner in an award market (and others) can be someone or something that received very little backing for the period before the actual determination of the outcome.
Doing your own homework and using critical thinking and thinking outside of the proverbial box can be a great way to find hidden gems like this one in prediction markets. No one trading or speculating was talking about María Corina Machado until late last week.
Traders Down on Portnoy Giving a 9+ Pizza Rating
Nobody knows pizza like Barstool Sports founder and owner Dave Portnoy and El Presidente has created one of the best shows on the internet with his One Bite Pizza Reviews where he visits local pizzerias around the US and scores their simple cheese pizzas on a scale of 1-10.
What started as an idea to visit and rate every pizzeria in Manhattan blew up and now Portnoy scores pizzas all over the country. These short and wonderful videos can be found on Portnoy’s YouTube, Instagram, and X accounts.
9+
Anyone who has followed Portnoy through the years knows that a score of 9 or above is extremely rare from Portnoy—as is even an 8 or above—and he has only ever given one pizza a perfect 10 in One Bite Pizza Reviews history, Monte’s Restaurant in Lynn, Massachusetts.
Polymarket traders in the cheesy Will Portnoy Give Another 9+ Review in 2025? market are giving it a 16% chance on Oct. 12, but seeing this market was at 62% in May and having seen all the OBPR reviews, a 9 seems very unlikely looking at history and even one (or two) more 8+
Who Will Win The Amazing Race Season 38?
CBS’s reality competition show The Amazing Race made its Season 38 premiere on Thursday, September 25 and three teams of the 13 who started have already been eliminated in this race around Europe to try to win a cool $1,000,000.
This season’s theme is past Big Brother houseguests, a fellow Reality TV heavyweight in CBS’s Big Three of Survivor, Big Brother, and The Amazing Race. All three shows started airing in either 2000 or 2001.
Heading into Wednesday’s fourth episode, "What Would Houdini Do?" (CBS, 9:30 EDT/PDT), three teams have been eliminated in Enzo Palumbo (BB12, BB21) and his brother Jack, Angela Murray (BB25) and her daughter Lexi, and Matt Turner (BB24) and his wife Megan Belmonte.
That leaves 10 teams left, and in the Who Will Win The Amazing Race Season 38? trading market at Kalshi, and here is who traders were supporting (or not):
● Jas Bains and Jag Bains 85%
● Joseph Abdin and Adam Abdin 70%
● Kyland Young and Taylor Hale 17%
On Monday, October 13, those top two teams were heavy favorites, but why? Viewers have seen brothers Jas Bains and Jag Bains (BB25 winner) win the first two legs, help another team in their clique win the third leg, and still have an Express Pass in their pocket after the Netherlands legs.
Other teams racing who have been given no chance by traders are Hannah Chaddha (BB23) and Simone Chaddha, Rubina Bernabe (BB26) and sister Kristine Bernabe, couple Izzy Gleicher (BB25) and Paige Seber, and Chelsie Baham (BB27 winner) and her father Jack Baham.
Also getting no love from Kalshi TAR winner traders were Tucker Des Lauriers (BB27) and his brother Eric Des Lauriers, couple Katt Dunn (BB21) and Alex Romo, newlyweds Matt Turner (BB21) and Megan Belmonte (Turner), and Natalie Negrotti (BB18) and sister Stephanie Negrotti.
The date for the The Amazing Race: European Adventure 39 finale has yet to be announced by CBS but if it’s a traditional 12-leg race, expect Wednesday, December 10 or Wednesday, December 17 ending. Filming for The Amazing Race 39 is currently underway.
Who Will Win the 2025-26 NHL Calder Trophy?
The 2025-26 NHL Regular Season is underway and Kalshi has opened a number of awards markets in its Futures section including the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy, basically a Rookie of the year award for the NHL.
Last season, defenseman Lane Hutson of the Montréal Canadiens won the award after the highly touted Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks captured the honor the season before.
Here is who Kalshi traders were backing in this wide open market as of October 13:
● Ivan Demidov, Canadiens 37%
● Matthew Schaefer, Islanders 13%
● Jimmy Snuggerud, Blues 11%
● Michael Misa, Sharks 9%
● Zeev Buium, Wild 9%
● Sam Rinzel, Blackhawks 7%
● Isaac Howard, Oilers, 6%
● Alexander Nikishin, Hurricanes 6%
● Ryan Leonard, Capitals 5%
● Beckett Sennecke, Ducks 3%
● Yaroslav Askaraov, Sharks 3%
● Zane Parekh, Flames 3%
The winner of the Calder Memorial Trophy is chosen annually by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) at the end of the NHL season. Each voter ranks their top five candidates, using a 10-7-5-3-1 scoring system. After that, the top three vote-getters are named as Finalists.
The 2025-26 NHL Regular Season will come to an end on Thursday, April 16, 2026.
2025-26 NHL Regular Season
Paul and Davis Meet in November Exhibition Match
Nobody has beaten Jake Paul in his last six fights in a boxing ring, but Polymarket traders are backing southpaw Gervonta Davis (56c) so far over YouTuber Paul (47c) for their upcoming showdown in the Sunshine State giving him a 55% chance to lose..
Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis is scheduled for on Friday November 14 at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida and will air exclusively on Netflix. Beating the undefeated Davis (30-0-1, 28 KOs) will be a challenge for Paul (12-1-0, 7 KOs), whose only loss in the ring came to Tommy Fury.
November Exhibition March
Polymarket also has an ancillary market involving this exhibition bout in the Winning Method with Davis by Points or Decision the top choice (36%, Yes 49c, No 78c), followed by Paul by Points or Decision (25%), Davis by KO/TKO (23%), and Paul by KO/TKO (17%).
Other winning methods given a much lesser chance by traders of being the outcome include Draw (5%) and Other (3%). Although this is an exhibition fight, both fighters have their pride and just one loss between them and this should be good and nothing like the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson ruse.
Some things to think about before backing either Paul or Davis. The 28-year-old Paul stands 6-foot-1 while Lightweight champion Davis is only 5-foot-5 and will be fighting up in weight. The 31-year-old Davis has also become very disenfranchised with Boxing and has hinted at his exit.
Paul or Davis
Bengals Host Steelers in AFC North Battle on TNF
Two old gunslingers snap up the chinstraps when 40-year-old Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4-0) host 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1-0) at PayCor Stadium (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) in Cincinnati, Ohio on Thursday (Prime Video, 8:15 ET).
This AFC North affair is important to both teams and could be a challenge for Flacco who just came over to Cincinnati from Cleveland a week ago. These two teams will play again at Acrisure Stadium in the Steel City in NFL Week 11 on Sunday, November 16 (CBS, 1 EST/10 PST).
Kalshi traders are backing Rodgers and the Steelers here (70%) over the Bengals (30%) as Pittsburgh and iconic Head Coach Mike Tomlin look to stay unbeaten on the road (2-0).
Saturday of Showdowns in NCAAF Week 8
The College Football season is moving at a rapid pace and conference play continues in Week 8 with about 10 games that need to be watched on Saturday and maybe 100 more that can be traded on at Kalshi.
In the SEC between the hedges, #9 Georgia (5-1) hosts #5 Ole Miss (6-0) at Sanford Stadium (Tifton 419 Bermuda Grass) in Athens, Georgia (ABC, 3:30 ET) in a showdown where traders are behind the host Bulldogs (66%) over the unbeaten Rebels (34%).
SEC
At Mountain America Stadium (Bermuda Grass) in Tempe, Arizona, Arizona State (4-2) will face #7 Texas Tech (6-0) in a Big 12 tussle in the Sonoran Desert (FOX, 4 ET/1 PT). Traders at Kalshi are giving the Red Raiders a 77% chance of winning (Yes) with the Sun Devils at just 23%.
Back in the SEC, the most-anticipated game on Saturday sees #6 Alabama (5-1) at #11 Tennessee (5-1) in a clash of NCAAF titans at Neyland Stadium (Grass) in Knoxville. The Crimson Tide (71%) were getting way more love than the Volunteers (29%) at Kalshi early Monday morning.
Colts in Los Angeles to Face Chargers on Sunday
The Indianapolis Colts (5-1-0) have been the big surprise of the 2025-26 NFL Regular Season, with head Coach Shane Steichen a favorite for the NFL Coach of the Year Award and QB Daniel Jones reborn in Naptown in what used to be the worst division in football. Times change.
On Sunday afternoon, Indianapolis is at SoFi Stadium (Matrix Turf) in Inglewood, California to play another upstart team, the Los Angeles Chargers (4-2-0) in an NFL Week 7 interconference matchup (CBS, 4:05 ET/1:05 PT).
In NFL Week 6 play, the Colts defeated the Cardinals in Indianapolis, 31-27 to stay as the top seed in the AFC while the Chargers zapped the Dolphins in Miami Gardens, 29-27 in a thriller as Cameron Dicker connected on his fifth FG with just five seconds to play.
Traders in the Kalshi football NFL market are giving Los Angeles a 51% chance of winning this showdown with Indianapolis at 49%. This one could be an interesting back-and-forth in the game’s Live trading market and these are two of the best seven teams in the NFL right now.
In the 31 meetings between these two teams, the Bolts are 20-11-0, winning the last meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium, 20-3 on December 26, 2022. Three of the meetings were in the NFL Playoffs.
Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.