I voted
Prediction markets have proven to be a great barometer of success for elections worldwide as we saw in the 2024 US presidential election, the 2024 Romanian presidential election, and the 2025 Japanese Prime Minister election.
And if industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket are right, Democratic nominee Zoran Mamdami will win the New York City Mayoral Election on Tuesday, with 94% at Polymarket heading into Election Day 2025 which doesn’t feature too many significant races to be quite honest.
Mamdami is expected to beat out Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa (<1%) and Independent candidate and former New York governor Andrew Cuomo (5%), who is expected to finish in second place in the race in the Big Apple and the city so nice they named it twice.
A Quinnipiac poll out October 29 showed Mamdami with 43% support, with Cuomo holding at 33%, Sliwa at 14% with 6% claiming to still be undecided. When you know you’re going to the pizza place, and you know you’re having pizza, there is no way you can be classified as “undecided.”
New Jersey Governor Race Now Not Too Close to Call?
The New Jersey Governor Winner? market also indicates an easy winner in the Garden State with traders at Kalshi predicting Democrat Mikie Sherrill (85%) will defeat Republican Jack Ciatterelli (15%) in the race to fill the vacancy with current governor Phil Murphy being term-limited.
Voters in New Jersey will also determine all 80 seats in the state Assembly on Election Day.
Kalshi also offered trading on Sherill-related markets as the menu of options in the political markets keeps evolving with the times:
Spanberger Likely Virginia Governor Winner on Tuesday
In the Virginia Governor Winner? Market at Kalshi, traders were backing Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger (96%) over Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears (4%) despite some reports indicating that the race was getting closer in the polls.
Like with the New Jersey Governor race, Kalshi has several ancillary markets relating to this election and the Lieutenant Governor races in the Old Dominion on Election Day including:
If Spanberger, Sherill, and Mamdami all win on Tuesday, some may call it a miniature Blue Wave but these are just independent elections in states in the Northeast and these would have been the expected outcomes no matter which party controls Congress or is sitting in the White House.
McDonald’s Earnings Call Before the Bell on Wednesday
Several big companies report earnings this week, including Coinbase Global (COIN), Clorox (CLX), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) after the markets close on Monday, with Uber Technologies (UBER), Shutterstock (SSTK), and Harley Davidson (HOG) reporting after the closing bell Tuesday.
McDonald’s
On Wednesday, before the opening bell rings on the NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets, the New York Times (NYT), Humana (HUM), and McDonald's (MCD) all report quarterly (Q3) earnings with Robinhood (HOOD) reporting after the NASDAQ closing bell on Wednesday.
Experts are predicting the Chicago-based fast food company whose french fries always taste better in the car to report an adjusted EPS of $3.37, up 4.3% from $3.23 in the same quarter in 2024. McDonald’s has met or exceeded Wall Street earnings estimates the last four quarters.
Most Popular Boy, Girl Name Market Leaders Won’t Change
In 1960, the most popular names for boys and girls in the US were Michael and Lisa, in 2000 they were Jacob and Emily, and in 2024, it was the names Liam and Olivia—the same two names traders at Polymarket are saying will be the top two chosen names in 2025.
In the Most Popular Boy Name 2025 trading exchange at the prediction market platform, it was Liam again (89%, +16%) getting the majority of the “Yes” contract love with Noah (6%, Yes 7.1¢, No 94.1¢), and James (1%), and Lucas (1%) following in the current order.
Boy’s name
Ending with a vowel is paramount if you were naming your baby girl this year, as all the names traded in the Most Popular Girl Name 2025 sheet at Netflix end with an “a” or an “e.”
The leaders as we enter November are Olivia (88%, +10%), Emma (8%), Amelia (3%),Charlotte (1%), and Ava (1%).
If you could bundle or combine outcome events at Polymarket—like a parlay in sports betting—putting Liam (Yes, 88¢), Olivia (Yes, 88¢), and Frankenstein (No, 97¢) from the aforementioned Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner market seems like a winner, if you can wait.
Sometimes Simple and Logical Trades Are the Best
When the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday, many traders in prediction markets were all over what seemed to be a simple and logical move by Jerome Powell and his boys in Washington, DC.
And they profited when Chairman Powell announced that federal funds rate by 0.25 bps from its prior range of 4% to 4.25% to 3.75% to 4%, the second straight 0.25 bps cut after September’s move, the first cut by the Fed since December 2024. Rumors of a quarter-point cut were true.
Another market which seems like a no-brainer is Kalshi’s Who Will Trump Meet With This Year? and the “Yes-No” trade in the Kim Jon-Un offering where there is just a 8% chance US President Donald Trump will meet with the North Korean leader this calendar year.
Who will Trump meet this year ?
Come on man. On a trip to Asia last week, Trump downplayed rumors he would possibly meet with the North Korean president. And with just two more months left in the year 2026, imagining Trump to take another long trip to Asia is far-fetched and Kim coming here is an impossibility.
Getting in on the “No” in this market while it’s still at 93¢ seems like one of those logical bonding trades. And another market where the “No” is printing money is Polymarket’s “Will the US Confirm That Aliens Exist in 2025?” which we talked about here in the newsletter in the last volume.
NBA Cup Market Unpredictable, a Good Chance to Profit?
The NBA introduced the in-season, multi-stage basketball tournament called the NBA Cup two years ago where all 30 teams participate. The teams all play four Regular Season games in a Group Stage format seen often in international tournaments like the UEFA Champions League.
Eight teams advance from the Group Stage to the Knockout Stage—four from the Eastern Conference and four from the Western Conference—and all games in the Knockout Stage and semifinals count in the Regular Season standings although the championship game doesn’t.
Last year, 2024 NBA Cup MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks beat the eventual NBA champion Thunder in the championship game at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on December 17. The Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup tournament in 2023.
This year, the 2025 NBA Cup will be held from October 31 to December 16 with the semifinals and championship game again scheduled to be played at the T-Mobile Arena in Sin City on the world famous Las Vegas Strip.
Polymarket traders in the NBA Cup winner are backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder (30%), followed by the Cavaliers (9%), Lakers (7%), Warriors (6%), Magic (6%), Knicks (6%), Nuggets (5%), Rockets (6%), Spurs (6%), Timberwolves (5%), Pistons (5%), and Hawks (5%).
But the volume was extremely low at this point in the market ($41,230) with the tournament yet to tip off, so this one will be an interesting watch over the next month-and-a-half. Taking a chance at a perceived longshot on a team like Atlanta (“Yes” 6¢) seems like a good recreational trade.
NBA
UEFA Champions League Winner Good Long-Term Position
We are still in the League Phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tournament with the Knockout Phase scheduled to start play on February 17, 2026 with the Round of 16 (March 10), Quarterfinals (April 7), Semifinals (May 28), and UCL Final (May 30) all to follow.
Prediction market traders at Polymarket in the UEFA Champions League winner market have “Yes” contracts Arsenal (16%), defending champions Paris Saint-Germain (15%), Bayern Munich (13%), Barcelona (12%), Real Madrid (11%) and Liverpool (10%)
Traders also have some interest in Manchester City (8%), Chelsea (4%), Inter (3%), Tottenham Hotspur (2%), Newcastle United (2%), and Atlético Madrid (2%), but these clubs aren’t as strong as in past years and might not have the rosters to compete with some of the trader’s favorites.
UEFA Champions League Winner
One thing you can do if trading in this market six months out from the Final in Budapest, Hungary, is to eliminate clubs because of how they are playing, who is injured, who may be sold in the winter transfer window (opens Jan. 1, 2026), and who may not even escape this League Phase.
Three teams from the English Premier League fit that bill and would be good “No” trades. There are rumors City star Erling Haaland may be sold over the summer to Real Madrid and this club just isn’t getting any scoring from anyone but Haaland and is fighting for a top four spot in the EPL.
Chelsea has its own problems with the Cole Palmer injury and the Blues were even further down the EPL table than City. And defending league champs Liverpool have been really scuffling lately, losing four straight in league play and also losing to Crystal Palace in the English Carabao Cup.
Broncos Welcoming Raiders to Mile High on Thursday
Bo Nix and the Broncos (7-2-0) play host to Geno Smith and the struggling Raiders (2-6-1) at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium (Surface) in Denver, Colorado in an AFC West date and the first game of the NFL Regular Season for Week 10 on Thursday (Prime Video, 8:15 ET/5:15 PT).
In Week 9 action, Denver beat the Texans in Houston to keep its lead in the AFC West while Las Vegas returned to the gridiron after a bye week and lost at Jacksonville on Sunday in OT at home as Las Vegas went for a two-point conversion for the victory but failed and lost by a point, 30-29.
BRONCOS
Traders at the Kalshi exchange are strongly thinking the Broncos will win this game (81%) with the Raiders trading at 19% three days before kickoff. With Denver 4-0 at home this season in the Mile High City and having the 5th-best scoring defense in the league (18.9 ppg), you understand why.
And the Broncos will have the edge at QB with Oregon product Nix (15 TD, 5 INT) playing better than Smith (7 TD, 10 INT). The Silver and Black are a pathetic 4-19-1 in their last 24 Regular and Preseason games. LV leads the all-time series, 73-56-2 but Denver has won the last two meetings.
10—A Nice Tripleheader of NCAAF Games on Friday Night
The first Friday in November serves up three nice College Football night games featuring three teams ranked in last week’s AP Top 25 in No. 22 Houston, No. 23 USC, and No. 25 Memphis.
Traders at Kashi are giving visitors Houston a 50% chance of beating host UCF (50%) at the Acrisure Bounce House (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Orlando (FS1, 8 ET/5 PT) in this Big 12 Conference showdown from the Sunshine State.
NCAAF traders are behind host USC (83%) vs. Northwestern (17%) in their Big Ten Conference game from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Bermuda Grass) in Los Angeles (FOX, 8ET/5 PT) as Jayden Maiava and the Trojans look to improve to 5-0 at home on Friday.
And traders are buying Host Memphis (68%) over Tulane (32%) in their American Athletic Conference (AAC) showdown from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (AstroTurf) in Memphis, Tennessee (ESPN, 9 ET/6 PT).
The popular prediction market Kalshi has seen a huge rise in its volume on the platform in the second half of this year primarily from vigorous trading on college and pro football. The company added a ”same-game parlay” feature where traders can combine multiple contracts into one pick.
Manchester City Hosting Liverpool in EPL on Sunday
Two clubs hoping to be in the 2025-26 English Premier League title race, Manchester City and defending league champions Liverpool collide Sunday at the Etihad Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in Manchester, England, UK in a big Matchweek 11 fixture for both sides (USA, 11:30 ET/8:30 PT).
Premier League traders at Kalshi are slightly favoring Erling Haaland (11 goals) and Manchester City (51%) over Mo Salah and Liverpool (26%) with a Draw predicted at 23%.
Premier League
Cody Gakpo and the Reds have really been struggling of late, losing five of their last eight matches in all competitions with Liverpool now sitting in third place in the league table after Matchweek 10 action and a victory over Aston Villa on Sunday with a UCL date with Real Madrid today (Nov. 4).
Phil Foden and the Citizens are 3-2-5 in their last 10 against Liverpool, losing the last three straight meetings vs the Reds and being outscored 8-1 in the process.
Formula One Circuit Races in São Paulo This Weekend
What looked like a two-driver and McLaren-dominated F1 season turned into an exciting three man race with four-time defending champion Max Verstappen climbing the 2025 F1 Drivers Standings and trying to get within striking distance of Red Bull’s Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.
So can Mad Max possibly pull off the miracle and make it fight straight Formula One titles? Michael Schumacher won five straight F1 World Drivers’ Championships (2000-2004) and with Verstappen (321 points) sitting 36 points behind Norris (357) and Piastri (356), this race is huge.
Verstappen earned 165 points for a third-place finish at the Mexico City Grand Prix at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez on Sunday, October 26 with Norris getting the checkered flag and Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) also on the podium in second place.
Polymarket traders are predicting Verstappen (36%) will win the MSC Cruises São Paulo Grand Prix at the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in São Paulo, Brazil on Sunday, November 9 (ESPN 2, 12 ET/9 PT) with points leader Norris (35%) and Piastri (16%), the Red Bull teammates, following.
A market maybe no one is looking at and where maybe some easy money can be made is the Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? offering at Polymarket (Yes 97¢, No 5¢). Nate Saunders of ESPN reported in July that Verstappen was set to “stay at Red Bull in 2026 after moving clear of a potential exit clause.”
Although there have been rumblings this week from Verstappen’s manager Raymond Vermeulen, and rumors of Verstappen teaming up with George Russell for Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS, it seems that Verstappen isn’t going anywhere no matter what happens in the last three races.
The next F1 race will be the Heineken Las Vegas Grand Prix at the Las Vegas Street Circuit in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, November 22 (ESPN , 11ET/8 PT) and will be a massive one for Verstappen as he attempts to pull off on of the greatest comebacks in F1 history.
F1