In this issue of The Prediction Report, we will preview the FA Cup Final, the WSJ’s scathing report on prediction markets, Kalshi doubling its valuation in five months, Will MrBeast Hit _____ Billion Views by June 30?, ‘Will Mike Vrabel be Out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31 2026?, EPL, LALIGA, and MLB previews, the Netflix MMA Special: Rousey vs Carano event and a preview of the NASCAR All-Star Race.
Manchester City, Chelsea Collide at Wembley
Two English Premier League stalwarts, Chelsea FC and Manchester City FC, will meet for all the marbles and beans and toast in the 2025-26 FA Cup Final from Wembley Stadium (Grass) in London, England on Saturday (ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, 10 EDT/9 CDT/8 MDT/7 PDT)
At Polymarket, the money for the match has gone to Manchester City (57%) over Chelsea (21%) with the Draw at 24% in the 3-way market with the Over 2.5 goals at 57¢. In the 2025-2026 FA Cup Winner market, Manchester City is 71% with Chelsea at 30% to lift the trophy on Saturday.
The Blues have been in horrible form of late, falling to 9th place in the EPL and firing their manager. Pedro Neto (4 goals) and Chelsea went a winless 0-1-6 in its last 7 matches and had scored just 2 goals in that span. Meanwhile, City was on a roll despite a major burp vs Everton.
➤Trading Thoughts: With more confidence, higher expectations, and in better form then Chelsea, expect Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, and Manchester City to find a way to get the silverware in London. If CFC scores, it will likely only be one goal. ➤Trading Picks: MCFC 58¢ (3-way), MCFC 72¢ (Win Trophy)
Speaking of markets where the math doesn't add up, one situation outside the prediction markets is drawing serious attention from investors right now.
The 200-to-1 Gold Default Hits May 29th
Imagine an airline sold the same seat to 200 different passengers... and just prayed 199 of them wouldn't show up at the gate.
That is the exact "math glitch" currently sitting at the heart of the global gold market.
According to recent data, there are now 200 paper claims for every 1 physical ounce of gold left in the vaults.
For 55 years, the bankers got away with it…
But on May 29th, a 90-year-old law effectively "calls the bluff."
When those 200 people show up for that 1 seat, the price of the "seat" (physical gold) doesn't just go up—it teleports.
I've identified one company sitting on $431 Billion worth of metal that "fixes" this glitch for investors.
While the stock trades for a fraction of that value today, the May 29th deadline changes everything.
Now, back to the prediction markets beat: the WSJ just dropped a report that confirms what sharp traders already knew.
WSJ Delivers a Sobering Prediction Markets Report
A recent story by the Wall Street Journal looking at popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket revealed that only a small number of accounts actually profit in the long run, which should probably surprise no one on earth who has ever been paying close enough attention.
The perception one could “print money” on prediction markets during their infinite stages has been replaced by mathematical realities, reversions to statistical means, loads of trading fees, and the thought the Common Man is fighting the bots using algorithmic trading may be impossible.
The story said 67% of the profit made at Polymarket went to just 0.1% of the accounts, and at that rate it seems the exchange will eventually have no one trading on it because 99.1% went broke? Come on man. We know it’s hard, but let us think (and trade) before creating a fresh narrative.
We have seen some modern instant-money markets like Cryptocurrency and Meme coins and NFTs all explode in value and then deflate, but none of those things had to do with event-trading and there will always be thousands of events to trade. These markets provide needed functions.
It has always been thought that only 3% to 5% of people betting sports profit in the end, with the 10% vigorish—much like the PM trading fees—eating up any potential profits with the constant churn and grind of betting on sporting events. Three percent is likely closer to the truth than 5%.
And the problem with many online and brick-and-mortar sportsbooks as elite professional sports gambler Bill Krackomberger always points out is that sportsbooks will limit and cut off good sports bettors if you are winning too much. There is no “house” to cut you off in prediction markets.
Only one of 10,000 sea turtle hatchlings ever survive to reach adulthood and live a turtle’s life on Earth and pinecones seldom if ever produce a tree. This is life. Surviving and thriving are hard. Winning long-term in sport gambling and/or prediction markets requires discipline, luck, and skill.
Titan Kalshi Doubles its Valuation in Just 5 Months
After raising $1 billion in a funding round led by Coatue, popular prediction market Kalshi has reportedly reached a valuation of $22 billion, doubling the platform’s value in more explosive growth just five months and signaling the prediction markets are more than just niche products.
The regulatory moat Kalshi has provided a nice edge and the New York City-based market from MIT graduates Tarek Mansour (CEO) and Luana Lopes Lara (COO) is poised to be one of the most important new companies on the globe as event-based trading increases in popularity.
It was only less than a year ago that the CFTC-regulated Kalshi told the world that it has raised money at a $2 billion valuation, so an 11x increase less than a year later would have even surprised Mansour and Lara.
Kalshi also announced a deal with Madison Square Garden in a multi-year relationship which will give Kalshi naming rights to the Kalshi Concourse at MSG where you can get a cold beer and trade on the Knickerbockers, Rangers, or whoever is playing in the iconic Big Apple building.
A Bad Misbond Loses a Mentions Trader $80,000
One of the best follows on Twitter to learn about and watch a trader involved live in Mentions markets is PredMTrader (Joel Holsinger) and while watching one of his livestreams on the "What Will Trump Say at the Military Mother’s Day Event?” on Kalshi on Tuesday, May 5, 2026.
During the live event in Washington, DC, Holsinger—a 26-year-old former CPA who quit his job to trade on Kalshi—and another person in the chat noticed a misbond in the market ($1,084,953 volume) with some $240,000 of ‘No’ shares bonded at 99¢ before Trump’s speech ended.
Two of the misbonded ‘No’ strikes ended up winning (‘Yes’) resulting in an $80,000 loss that happened in a few seconds. A similar late misbond at a UFC fight this year when the announcer named the wrong winner (before correcting) with a wise trader winning in that PM instance.
Now a Big Apple resident, Holsinger—a student of past scripts who is excellent at analyzing what specific words or phrases speakers may say at events, live trading, and a guy who’s been profitable in Mentions markets (and other PMs) in his early trading career—explains about misbonds here:
While misbonds can flip a trade in seconds, the biggest market event on the horizon might be a different kind of IPO entirely.
Elon Musk is about to take SpaceX public in what's set to be the biggest IPO ever.
But there's no need to wait for the company to go public.
You can claim your stake today. The New York Times predicted it "will unleash gushers of cash for Silicon Valley and Wall Street."
If you click here and learn what to do, some of that cash could end up in your pocket.
Now, on to one of the biggest names in digital media and what traders are saying about his YouTube milestone.
Will MrBeast Hit ____ Billion Views by June 30?
The person with the most YouTube subscriptions is MrBeast, aka Jimmy Donaldson, and he has pretty much revolutionized the platform through the years, making a huge name for himself as he staged high-budget events for cash prizes, much like some Reality TV shows but much more raw.
MrBeast just appeared on CBS’s Survivor 50 and was part of special “Super Beware Advantage” challenge which saw one player play (Rick Devens) and successfully double the show’s $1 million prize money to $2 million with a simple coin flip. Got coconut milk?
The 28-year-old Donaldson started on YouTube at age 11 and made a unique niche for himself only afforded to one by the freakiness of The Digital Age and people’s willingness to do just about anything for money in these strange and somewhat disturbing times.
At Polymarket you can trade on the ranges of different view numbers for MrBeast’s YT channel by June 30, 2026. On May 12, here were the chances: 123 billion (100%), 124 billion (99%), 125 billion 99%), 126 billion (88%), 127 billion (62%), 128 billion (--%), and 129 billion (25%).
Mike Vrabel Out as Patriots Coach by Dec 31, 2026?
It wouldn’t be an NFL Offseason if we didn’t have a controversy and 2026 has been no different with New England Patriots Head Coach Mike Vrabel embroiled in a controversy after he was allegedly involved in an extramarital affair with NY Times NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
The scandal broke out after pictures surfaced in the New York Post of the two holding hands at the Ambiente Sedona Resort in Sedona, Arizona in late March of 2026 before the annual NFL league meeting in the Sonoran Desert. After the much-publicized affair, Russini resigned from the Athletic.
At Polymarket, traders can speculate whether or not this affair and the controversy will cost Patriots HC Vrabel his job, be it because of a firing or his resignation. In the (Will) Mike Vrabel be Out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31 2026? market the No is 77% with the Yes trading at 23%
➤Trading Thoughts: The biggest thing here is the timing. This did not happen in the middle of an NFL Regular Season. This did not happen after another miserable Patriots season. This happened after Vrabel came in and flipped the momentum of the franchise. That is a very good thing. for him
After seeing HC Jerrod Mayo go after one miserable-ass season in Beantown in 2024 (4-13), Vrabel came in after the Titans foolishly let him go to lead the team to a 14-3 record (490 PF-320 PA, +170 PD) and an AFC Championship and berth in the Super Bowl behind QB Drake Maye.
The ‘Yes’ in the market peaked out at 49% on April 23 before retreating to a low of 15% on May 7. NE was 33-51 from 2020 to 2024 as Pats fans endured a rebuild after the departure of legend Tom Brady, so with Vrabel coaching like Bill Belichick, he’s going nowhere. ➤Trading Pick: No 83¢
Aston Villa Hosting Liverpool in EPL on Friday
The 2025-26 EPL starts Matchweek 36 of with a match between 5th-place Aston Villa (17-7-11, 58 PTS) and 4th-place Liverpool (17-8-11, 59 PTS) in an important fixture from Villa Park (Desso GrassMaster) in Birmingham, England on Friday (USA, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
At Polymarket, traders are buying GK Alisson Becker and visitors Liverpool (43%) over GK Emiliano Martínez, hosts and UEFA Europa League finalists Aston Villa (33%) with a Draw at 26%. The Total 2.5 sees Over at 55¢ (Under 46¢). The Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) at 66¢ (No 35¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Reds are without Mohamed Salah (Calf) and Hugo Ekitike (Achilles) for the rest of the season but still seek the points here with UEFA Champions League qualification still very likely but not officially secured yet. The problem? The Reds are battling Villa for 4th place.
Taking a gander at the last 5 H2H meetings between these two, we see that Liverpool has gone an unbeaten 3-2-0 vs the Villains (12 GF-5 GA), scoring at least 2 goals in every match in EPL fixtures that averaged a robust 3.4 GPG. But don’t sleep on Villa. ➤Trading Pick: Over 2.5 Goals, Yes 55¢
Real Madrid at Sevilla Meet in La Liga on Saturday
The 2025-26 Spanish LALIGA season is coming to an end with few meaningful games on the schedule as Barcelona already won the league and is now more intent on building a better club to compete in next season’s 2026-27 UEFA Champions League, La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
Real Madrid (24-5-6, 78 PTS) heads to Sevilla, Spain and Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium (Grass) to face Sevilla (11-7-17, 40 PTS) on Sunday, May 17 (ESPN+, 1 ET/12 CT/10 PT) in a fixture with no meaning to Los Blancos (already in UCL) with Sevilla still worried about relegation as are so many.
Soccer traders at Polymarket like visitors Real Madrid (45%) over Akor Adams (9 goals) and Sevilla (28%) with a Draw at 28% at with the Total sees the Over 2.5 at 55¢ (Under 47¢) with the Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) at 64¢ (No 43¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: The last 5 meetings (all Spanish LALIGA) have seen Real Madrid go an unbeaten 4-1-0 (10 GF-3 GA) with 2 straight Clean Sheets including a 2-0 victory and Madrid earlier this season as and Jude Bellingham (38’) and Kylian Mbappé (86’—PK) tallied.
Los Blancos have dominated this series with Sevilla’s last win vs Real Madrid coming on September 26, 2018 at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (3-0), before the COVID-19 pandemic and when we were all still young and had considerably more pep in our step than the pep we have in our steps now. ➤Trading Picks: Real Madrid 45¢
MMA Special Rousey vs Carano on Netflix Saturday
It will be a blast from the past on Saturday night when Mixed Martial Arts legend Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano get back into the hexagon cage to try to bash each other’s brains out at Netflix MMA Special: Rousey vs Carano at the Intuit Dome in LA (Netflix, MAIN CARD—9 EDT/6 PDT).
Ronda Rousey (12-2, 9 Submissions, 3 KO) and Gina Carano (7-1, 1 Submission, 3 KO) will feature in the popular streaming service’s first-ever foray, along with Most valuable Promotions (MVP), into MMA and the entire fight card will be provided to subscribers of Netflix for no extra cost.
There is a cool fight on the card seeing Nate Diaz (22-13, 14 Submissions, 4 KO) and Mike “Platinum” Perry (14-8, 11 KO) meeting in a 5-round Welterweight bout which will be contested under Unified Rules of MMA. The Rousey-Carano main event will start around 11 EDT/8 PDT.
Francis Ngannou (18-3, 4 Submissions, 13 KO) returns to MMA after a crossover in Boxing and will get in the ring against Philippe Lins (18-5, 4 Submissions, 9 KO) from brazil in a Heavyweight brawl from Lalaland.
At Robinhood, traders overwhelmingly were behind California-product Ronda Rousey (80%) over underdog Gina Carano (20%). In the MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs Mike Perry exchange at Polymarket, Perry was the choice (60%-40%) while Ngannou was the man vs Lins (90%-10%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Prelims for Netflix MMA Special: Rousey vs Carano start at 6 EDT/3 PDT (TUDUM, MVP You Tube) with the Main Card to follow in Lipstick City. This ‘Welcome Back’ event should be traded recreationally only. ➤Trading Parlay Pick: Ngannou-Perry-Rousey bundled
2026 NASCAR All-Star Race in Dover on Sunday
This weekend, the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule sees the stock car circuit at the Dover Motor Speedway (Asphalt) in Dover Delaware for the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race on Sunday, May 17 (TV—FS1, HBO Max, RADIO—MRN, SiriusXM, 4 EDT/3 CDT/2 MDT/1 PDT).
Last week, in the 12th race on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series calendar, the 2026 Go Bowling at the Glen from Watkins Glen International Speedway in Watkins Glen, NY on May 10, where pre-race favorite Shane von Gisbergen won the off-road event for his 7th-ever NASCAR checkered flag.
Polymarket NASCAR traders like Denny Hamlin (21%), Kyle Larson (16%), Chase Elliott (13%), Ryan Blaney (11%), Christopher Bell (10%), Ty Gibbs (8%), William Byron (8%), Ty Reddick (7%), Alex Bowman (5%), Carson Hocevar (5%), and Chase Briscoe (5%) at the Monster Mile on Sunday.
➤Trading Thoughts: The NASCAR All-Star Race is just an exhibition contested over 350 laps, so don’t expect the same motivation or desire to win from drivers like we would see on a normal Sunday during the NASCAR Cup Series season and trading (or betting) on this is a crapshoot.
When teams in sports or drivers in racing aren’t playing or driving “for something,” it isn’t the same type of contract or bet as when winning the game or the race is the desired outcome. A small play in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Winner market? ➤Race Winner Trading Pick: Denny Hamlin 21¢
Mariners Host Friars in Emerald City on Sunday
FOX has two MLB games on the docket on Sunday night with the Mets hosting the Yankees in Game 2 of their Subway Series for viewers in the East and the Padres facing the Mariners in Game 2 of their Interleague series at Chase Field in San Diego (MLB.com, 7:15 EDT/6:15 CDT/4:15 PDT).
The scheduled starters for these games are Carlos Rodon for the red-hot Bronx Bombers with the Mets undecided and Walker Buehler getting the pill for the Padres against the Mariners George Kirby. The Yanks and Padres have been Thunderstuck while the Mets and Mariners have not.
In the Pro Baseball Champion (World Series) market at Kalshi, Aaron Judge and the Yankees are being given a 18.71% chance of winning the Fall Classic with the crosstown Mets floundering at 2.0% flat. The Padres were trading at 2.8% at Kalshi with the Mariners at 7.3% on May 10.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Mets and Yankees split 3-3 in the 2025 Subway Series with both clubs going 2-1 at Home in high-scoring Interleague games (10.2 RPG). The Mets have been absolutely awful at Home so far this season (7-12) and are an anemic 2-6 in their last 8 at Citi Field.
With Judge (.270/15/29), Ben Rice (.330/12/27) and New Kid In The Bronx Cody Bellinger (.290/7/28), the Junior Circuit Big Apple bashers may diaper the Senior Circuit Big Apple babies. I Don’t Want to Know the Final. It will be like Yanks ‘Many’ to Mets ‘Few.’ ➤Trading Pick: Yankees
Arsenal Hosts Burnley in EPL on Must-win Monday
Matchweek 36 of the 2025-26 EPL ends with a huge fixture between first-place Arsenal (24-7-5, 79 PTS) and 19th-place and soon to be relegated Burnley (4-8-23, 20 PTS) in a fixture from Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in North London on Monday (USA, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
The Premier League race took a turn on a bad pass by a Manchester City defender and now Arsenal find themselves in the driver’s seat with Matchweeks 37 and 38 deciding who gets the silverware, who play in the UCL and UEL, and who else gets relegated besides Burnley and Wolves.
Polymarket traders in the EPL Winner market like Arsenal (76%) over Manchester City (24%) heading down the stretch. Here, Arsenal (90%) is the overwhelming choice with Burnley at 3.5% and a Draw at 8%. The chart’s similar to my chances of having sex this millennium if I were Burnley.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Gunners are 4-0-1 (W-D-L) vs Burnley (11 GF-1 GA) with Arsenal 1-1-0 vs the Clarets on Hornsey Road. A larger sample size? More Fear And Loathing in London here with the Gunners going a dominating 25-6-4 the last 35 meetings and 15-3-1 the last 18 overall.
With the title race still in jeopardy, Viktor Gyökeres (14 goals), Bukayo Sako (7 goals) and the Gunners will look to score as many goals as possible, knowing that MCFC is playing Tuesday (Brentford) in Matchweek 37, Arsenal will push the pace. ➤Trading Pick: Arsenal -2.5 51¢
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will highlight the 2026 French Open, look at an Arizona judge’s positive ruling for Kalshi, the weekly Earnings Report calendar, F1 Drivers’ and Constructors’ Champions market updates, previews for EPL, US Open Cup Semifinals, the UEFA Champions League Women’s Final and the Coupe de France Final along with a Blue Jays-Yankees preview from the Bronx on Wednesday. Thank you for reading and subscribing to this biweekly newsletter for prediction market traders, sports bettors, and news junkies.